2014 congress or bjp
Debate Rounds (3)
Number game: Congress fishes for support to win 2014 Lok Sabha elections
Kartikeya Sharma | Mail Today | New Delhi, September 26, 2013 | UPDATED 10:11 IST
Congress fishes for support to win 2014 LS polls
With the next general elections looming large, the Congress faces the same old dilemma.
A video leaked on Wednesday that shows Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi telling Congress members they could go it alone in Maharashtra and don't really want the Nationalist Congress Party has only confirmed what the Grand Old Party is suspected of: allies are needed but not wanted. It was less than a decade ago, in 2004, that Congress President Sonia Gandhi's walked across to Lok Jan Shakti Party chief Ram Vilas Paswan's house in a gamechanging moment.
Both parties have the same target - 272 - but the Congress can go critical with reduced numbers but BJP needs at least 180 for criticality.
The Congress overcame a psychological barrier, and Sonia showed that she had made peace with coalition politics. An alliance was stitched up, and the Congress was back in business after eight years in the cold.
Rahul's influence grew but coalition dharma ruled the roost till 2009 when the Congress sniffed blood with a revival of sorts in Uttar Pradesh. Rahul's muscular approach prevailed; understanding gave way to competition. Project Solo had begun. Lalu Prasad was the first to be ignored; the Samajwadis got a taste of Congress imperiousness in the 2012 assembly elections.
An unravelling was underway as alliance members left the UPA on one pretext or the other. Those who chose to stick with the coalition did so because of regional compulsions but nursed their grudges quietly. The debacle in Uttar Pradesh and then Bihar turned the tables. The hunted became hunters as regional parties bonded against the Congress as well as BJP. "The big picture is that singular has become plural in Indian politics. No single party can play 'Bigg Boss' and form a government on its own," says NCP spokesperson D.P. Tripathi. His party is not too pleased with the Rahul video but it does have a government to run in Maharashtra.
With the next general elections looming large, the Congress faces the same old dilemma. Not surprisingly, the BJP is in the same boat. Both have more or less decided to go for the numbers with basic partners before hunting for partners. Many within the Congress admit that core performance will decide everything but are hopeful that they can attract more partners than the BJP. "The question of less or more will apply only after approval and disapproval of the people," said Information and Broadcasting Minister Manish Tiwari.
Both parties have the same target - 272 - but the Congress can go critical with reduced numbers but BJP needs at least 180 for criticality. That Sports Minister Jitendra Singh, a member of the alliance committee of the Congress, admits they are open to new alliances is an indication of partners being found or even changed after the elections.
Cold vibes from Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) and the Left apart, the Congress finds solace in the near-certainty of 'secular' support.
"I cannot say as to what we are going to do in Delhi post-2014. But it is not going to be BJP," says JD(U) leader K.C. Tyagi. Congress insiders says an AIADMK-BJP pact will force the DMK in their arms. It's the same for Lalu and Nitish, and even the SP and BSP.
The Congress has to pick. Modi could be best thing that happened to the Congress. Even the Biju Janata Dal is uncomfortable with the idea of Modi. Some say that this will be the new mantra after 'There Is No Alternative' of the 1990s.
Read more at: http://indiatoday.intoday.in...
First of all, I'd like to emphasise that the debate is about who *would* win the 2014 elections, and not who *should* win the elections.
Also, (for the sake of clearity) my opponent believes Congress would be win the elections (again) as he mentions at the end of his argument that 'Modi could be the best thing that happened to Congress', Modi being the projected head of BJP party.
1. My opponent points out the coalition problems with BJP. Although it cannot be disputed that BJP did disintegrate the last time it came into power because it wasn't able to consolidate necessary votes to form a coalition, the fact remains that the party has come a long way now. However, it should be noted that even congress has squandered the support it gained. Congress seats have declined from 415 Lok Sabha seats to 119-131 seats, while BJP have more or less remained stagnant at 116. The deviation isn't statistically significnt. Both of them rely on coalitions (Of which, Congress is losing out on, fast).
BJP has been pretty successful in gaining support recently, (http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com...), with TDP in talks with BJP, and Modi heralding a proactive approach to politics. Congress has failed to consolidate its position in the last 10 years. BJP has been fairly successful in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh, the states it did rule in.
All in all, what we can sufficiently gather from this is that both of them would have to woo local parties, parties that are, in effect, trying to come into power. So apart from 'who' woos them, the question is their expectations of who comes into power.
2. Opinion polls show that with the dismal performance of Congress, people have been rooting for BJP (or more succintly, for Modi). (http://www.firstpost.com...) Opinion polls show that Modi is far ahead in the race as of now, DESPITE the populist measures taken by Congress. a k a the food security Bill, the Aadhaar card scheme, the petrol prices reduction, and the entire hoopla.
In a Rahul vs Modi fight, people do have more faith in Modi (and his libertarian policies) as opposed to the person whose mother still instructs him on public speaking (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...). Given that the parties are more or less at an equal footing, the projected head is the only swaying factor. As long as Congress doesn't elect anybody better than Rahul Gandhi, BJP is going to be, by default, people's choice.
Summing up, coalition is a problem for both the parties, people prefer BJP, hence that'd add a boost to the party support within the parliament form the parties in the sidelines. a k a BJP has a high probability of coming into power as of now, contingent on the fact that they don'tr pick a better leader.
shyamrockstheworld forfeited this round.
Here's a song that's stuck in my head for days now. Enjoy :)
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