Almost half of all rape accusations are false.
Debate Rounds (5)
Round 2-4. Presenting arguments and rebuttals.
Round 5. Closing argument with no rebuttals.
I believe that there is now mounting evidence which suggest that rape is not only lied about but lied about for the most trivial of reasons. In-depth studies by independent judges and prosecutors conclusively show that reported rapes to the police are fraught with false claims, very much more so than reports of other crimes, and we have cases over and again of women lying about rape and getting away with it either completely scot-free or with little to no consequences. I will also argue that the definition of rape has been diluted to the point where many males are being falsely convicted as a result of a societal push to "protect" women from what is purported to be an epidemic of rape or "rape culture" which from the start was bound and determined to put more men at risk for being at the mercy of vindictive, borderline/bipolar women, or other types of women prone to using the legal system as a leverage against men for all kinds of reasons you will be shocked to hear about over the course of this debate.
This is a short prelude of what the debate will be about. I expect my opponent not to use any shaming tactics or ad-hominem attacks against me personally in which case I will urge voters to take this into consideration when casting your vote. We look at facts and we'll try to draw empirical and reasonable conclusions from them. If you for whatever reason take offense and as a result don't believe you can stay 100% real and rational over the course of this debate, don't accept.
I'm looking forward to an objective delve into this complex and controversial topic and good luck to my opponent.
Thanks to Pro for the challenge.
We were going to start this debate previously but but Pro had some technical problems which stopped him to post his arguments.
Hope this time the debate goes all good.
Good luck to my opponent!
I'll start off by explaining certain caveats. Because there is still very little formal research on this matter and hence an unavailability of information on both parts, admittedly there is a huge burden of proof on my part. This will complicate pinpointing an exact figure as to what percentage we're really talking about. We'll have to deal with the scant data there is and try to make some educated guesses, and I believe the preliminary data we do have points towards my case being true.
Since most studies have been conducted in the United States, the US will be in focus for this debate. We can venture to guess though that if this is the situation in US then it wouldn't be surprising if it mirrored the exact same situation in other western European countries and I for one would not be taken aback if it turned out the whole western world is struggling with a similar rate of false indictments.
To begin with, Police identifies mental illness and sociopathy as causes for why women are making false claims. In fact, mental illnesses such as borderline and bipolar disorder is much more common among women than we have previously thought. 85% of people suffering from borderline personality disorder, BPD, are women and BPD affects 5.9 percent of the US adult population at some point in their life. Doing the math using official figures from 2014, that would mean that about 12.3 million of US women suffer from BPD: (1)(2). BPD is characterized by an inability to properly regulate mood, thoughts and self-image which can result in reckless and impulsive behaviours. Hence, we have approximately about 80-90 thousand reported rape each year and a pool of 12.3 million women. That's a ratio 0,65% and that's just counting BPD.
I would argue that many women nowadays are very emotionally unstable and therefore prone to making false allegations when they feel push comes to show. now we do have a lot of false allegations than have come out in the open which gives us a hint of the wildly various reasons for filing false charges and the way they to about filing them.
Many go to extreme lengths to fabricate pieces of "evidence" to frame the accused, such as using self-inflicted wounds as proof an assault has taken place.
A woman claimed she'd been abducted at knife point while fueling her car, then being forced to drive into a wood under duress by chocking her with a bicycle security chain. Upon arriving he allegedly bound her to a tree while vaginally assaulting her with a box-cutter and lacerating her breasts and nipples. The wounds and marks that would indicate such an event taking place was inflicted by herself(3).
That was just one example. Here's a list of 13 cases ranging from bizarre to the most jaw-droppingly trivial reasons (10). Another baffling case happened to Kyler Kust in the US who was accused by 13(!) colluding women/girls who made a joint false allegation against him(4). Thus I would submit that what I would call a "false rape culture" is indeed alive and well and very much socially acceptable by many women seeing the numerous and shocking cases I've brought forth.
Coupled with this is a culture in which guilt is often presumed on the part of the accused even when there is strong corroborating evidence proving that a rape did in fact not occur. Those falsely accused even when exculpated will often have their reputation and lives destroyed. Often there is little to no repercussions for making false rape accusations and women's right groups want there in fact to be no legal repercussions whatsoever because they fear it would deter victims from stepping forth. It is more than the abundantly clear that as a woman you'll get a pass for maliciously levelling a false claim but as a man you are guilty until proven innocent (5).
I would say that there is a "cover up" because negative presentation of women is viewed as sexist and is therefore shun from scientific scrutiny. Many people who work in the sciences can attest to it being the case, The scope of the problem is also "covered up" in the sense that police are not authorized to give an opinion as to veracity of claims brought forth unless the accuser freely admits herself (or himself) that the claim is false. Since law enforcement agency (LEA) forbids police officers "to use their discretion in deciding whether to officially acknowledge a rape complaint, regardless of how suspect that complaint may be" (6). Police will then classify it as "unfounded". The number of "unfounded" cases are 8% (7). These may be cases were there is no evidence or contradicting evidence but no official pronouncing of falsity.
However, as shown by FBI statistics, of all the 90,427 forcible rapes that were reported in 2007 in United States, 40% were cleared by police either by arrest or "exceptional means" (8) and in 1996 over half were (7). In To clear a rape case by exceptional means means that "the known suspect dies before an arrest is made, when the victim refuses to provide the information or assistance necessary to follow an investigation through to an arrest, or when the known suspect is being held in another jurisdiction for a different crime and extradition is denied"(8). The first and third reasons as to why an "exceptional means" would be invoked are extremely rare and can be discounted when looking at the bigger picture, one in which women choose not to cooperate with police in order to pursue a verdict constitute the bulk of these said cases.
Hence at the outset, about 50% of all rape cases are either not proceeded because police, medical and forensic examiners find no evidence and/or because women don't choose to cooperate with police. Even cases that go to trial where intercourse has occurred, these cases are also fraught with lies which gives a hint as to why few cases result in a verdict.
Now preliminary studies indicate a much bigger problem than previously thought.
When the US Air Force's Office of Special Investigations headed by Dr. Charles McDowell investigated rape cases of Airforce personnel on Air force bases throughout the world and found that 27% were false by admission from the accuser, usually after they were asked to take a polygraph test. Subsequently he developed a 35 criteria listing traits common among those had confessed to making up false claims, used to distinguish false accusations from genuine cases. Three independent judges later reviewed the remaining cases using the criterion. Only when they unanimously agreed did they determine a false claim. At the end of the day, the false rape allegation rate was 65%, 556 cases (9)
Another study looked at 109 cases of forcible rape that in one small Midwestern city of 70,000 denizens between 1978 and 1987. This particular city was selected because the police department wasn't overly burdened with police cases and thus had the means to effectively go thoroughly through these cases in-depth. They constructed a unique and objective protocol to review the cases brought forth. Among one of the procedural precautions was to not use police discretion to clear a complaint even in they were to conclude that the accusation was suspect or unfounded. Every accusation had to be studied in-depth and always included a lie detector test to the accuser as well as the accused. Cases were only declared false if and when the accuser spilled the beans and conceded that no rape had occurred. 41% of the accusers admitted to it being false. (6).
During a follow-up study a similar analysis was used to conduct investigations of all the cases of forcible rapes over a three-year period at two large Midwestern universities. Polygraph tests were not of the procedure, yet 50% of the complaints were found to be false. 53% of those cases were cited as the accuser needing an alibi(6).
According to a 1996 department of Justice report ""in about 25% of the sexual assault cases referred to the FBI, the primary suspect has been excluded by forensic DNA testing". The DNA exclusion rate remained constant over several years. Also, 20% were found to be questionable if DNA was added. National Institute of Justice's survey of private laboratories also demonstrated consistent with FBI numbers a DNA exclusion rate of 26% (9).
As a caveat this can however mean that the accusation was simply misplaced and the perpetrator wrongly identified. However, as of now there is no evidence to suggest that women as it pertains to any other crime misidentify 1 in 4 perpetrators. It is then more consistent with my multiple lines of evidence that would suggest a high percentage of those rape claims have been maliciously levelled, now proven not to have transpired at all. DNA alone is not proof alone that a rape has occurred so the true extent may in fact be much more commonplace. In many jurisdictions jurors are told that a conviction can be passed based on a litigant's testimony alone. Hence the recent use of DNA evidence have been useful in acquitting falsely accused men and releasing men from prison in fact.
There's plenty more to say but let's trowel through more of that in the next round.
A gender problem
Firstly, I have to point out that not only women get raped. Pro is always taking about women being the victim, which is false. Then all the "statistical guesses" He made are biased and invalid.
This is know as the false dilemma fallacy. He describes this issue as being a kind of fight between the women who accuses and the men who are accused. This is indeed false. Rape isn't always from men against women, but can also be from men to men, from women to men and from women to women. This whole stance is then biased and not a rational argument.
The BPD argument
In this argument Pro falls in the non sequitur fallacy. There's no rational link between the amount of women with BPD and the amount of false rape accusations. Having too "crazy" women doesn't mean that the majority of the rape accusations are false.
"I would argue that many women nowadays are very emotionally unstable " This statement is very subjective and lacks of scientific bases, making the whole argument invalid.
"Many go to extreme lengths to fabricate pieces of "evidence" to frame the accused, such as using self-inflicted wounds as proof an assault has taken place." Again, this doesn't have any factual base, is just a personal guess. Then, this is also an invalid argument.
Both arguments fall in the subjectivistic fallacy, using subjective information as facts. Then, they are both invalid.
The fallacy of the generalization
The fallacy of the generalization happens when someone makes conclusions from a small "sample". For instance, if you say that all afro americans are thieves because you know three afro americans who are thieves, you are falling in this fallacy.
Pro gave some examples to prove his conclusion, but they are too specific examples and aren't representative of all the "women population". This argument falls in the fallacy of generalization, thus is invalid.
This is the false clue fallacy. He adds a point which seems relevant but actually doesn't prove his point. I agree that the legal system of the US is very harsh against the accused, but this doesn't prove that women make false accusations of rape.
The exceptional means argument
Another set of fallacies.
"The first and third reasons as to why an "exceptional means" would be invoked are extremely rare and can be discounted when looking at the bigger picture"
This is another subjective guess, another fallacy.
"women choose not to cooperate with police in order to pursue a verdict constitute the bulk of these said cases"
Subjective again. There is an alternative. Women may choose not to participate in the trial process in order to avoid the humiliation that it means.
As you can observe, all of Pro's arguments are fallacies. This means that the whole argument is invalid. Ergo, the resolution is negated.
All the fallacies information was extracted from the Anthony Weston's book "A Rulebook for arguments"
Now I am actually at my vacation right now. If it weren't for the fact that the hotel I'm staying in charges crazy amounts for the usage of their wifi I would have had more time to fill in more of the blanks. In this round due to shortage of time I might try to give more general answers in this round and, when I have some time, try to back them up with more facts and figures in the next round. People are often saying that "information should be free". If you ask me, information shouldn't be free but wifi should be free and charging for wifi should not be considered a viable business model! You see a hotel with the audacity to do that, boycott them out of existence!
For starters, it seems my opponent has obsessed with focusing onfallacies that certain aspects of my arguments he seems to have overlooked. unlike what my opponent has claimed, I did provide a clear-cut case in the example of the woman who claimed she was abducted at knifepoint who used self-inflicted wounds to frame her accuser. I also provided an example of 13 women who made a joint false accusation against a boy their age. Also in the source I provided 13 different cases of false rape accusations was listed with 13 different reasons listed. Among the listed reasons we have everything under the sun, from covering up infidelity, for failing school exams, because of attention, to make boyfriends jealous, because the sex was bad, etc. In one case the woman punched herself in the face, ripped her clothes of and told police that two men had broken into her house and raped her. In another one of those cases a woman scratched her face and tore her clothes apart and claimed a man had raped her.
That's only a few cases listed. There are many more similar cases if for some reason these cases do not pass muster and my opponent claim these do not reflect a population basis. The fact that women use false claims for many different purposes is all clear by now. The only question remaining is, do women generally use rape claims for such casual purposes in general. In fact many independent prosecutors and judges can attest to this being the case. Here is a quote from Craig Silverman, a man who can be considered a veteran in sex crimes and has been heavily involved in sex-crime cases for many, many years.
"For 16 years, I was a kickass prosecutor who made most of my reputation vigorously prosecuting rapists. I am unaware of any Colorado prosecutor who put as many rapists away for as much prison time as I did during my prosecutorial career. Several dozen rapists are serving thousands of years as a result of my efforts. However, during my time as a prosecutor who made case filing decisions, I was amazed to see all the false rape allegations that were made to the Denver Police Department. It was remarkable and surprising to me. You would have to see it to believe it. Any honest veteran sex assault investigator will tell you that rape is one of the most falsely reported crimes that there is. A command officer in the Denver Police sex assaults unit recently told me he placed the false rape numbers at approximately 45 percent. Objective studies have confirmed this. See Purdue Professor Kanin's nine-year study published in 1994 concluding that over 40 percent of rape allegations were demonstrably false."
In Bavaria police officals agree that way over 50% of accusations are false (I'll get into more detail down below). They confirm the picture that even highly questionable claims fall at the laps of prosecutors for sexual assault/rape, not for false claims of said crime, hence the highly skewed statistics of false claims in the first place. Only 7,4% of cases are forwarded for prosecution of false rape, either where evidence has been blatant or accuser has confessed. In 64% of the cases the charges were dropped by prosecution due to lack of evidence. These police officials initially in charge of the investigations deemed them false.
There are way more officers and people who are deep down in the sexual crimes trenches that I can cite, but it's very clear to me so far that these people certainly attest to women going to extreme lengths to make false claims to the police, concocting detailed stories of assaults, even colluding with other women to make it more credibleto the police, etc. They've seen it all and they consecutively cite figures as high as 40 %.
There they studied 1894 cases and concluded that more than 50% were false. Now. I think we have enough data to reasonably believe they might in fact be telling he truth. Also, the police is not a think thank organisation and can't like feminists do skew any statistics to favour some agenda. Police is ultimately answerable to authorities and as such they do not just make sh*t up.
Now, with that said, my opponent has not rejected any of the claims in the studies themselves. He could have used his second round to do that but chose not to. Instead, my opponent rejected me drawing the conclusion of a 50% falsity rate based on those studies (albeit in addition with other pieces of evidence). Now we actually have two studies, one with 1200 that came up with a 60% falsity rate and one with 1900 that came up with a 50% rate. In addition we have by account of police who've worked intimately (thereby conducted there own small studies you could say) with many hundreds of sex-crimes come up with a similar rate. Now In high school, and that was over a year ago, used to do some college-statistic math like standard deviations, confidence levels, confidence intervals, etc. and I could, if I had enough time and maybe a calculator, do some calculations and try to get a number on the probability of it relating to a whole population basis. Now I don't want our debate to be about troweling through a lot of mathematical terms and do it in a overly complicated. Besides, as I write it I only got 17 minutes left so if you insist on that point I'll see what I can do in the next round. So far we have many comprehensive studies, both smaller and with larger samples, converging on a range between 40-60% and on top of that police concurring and telling the exact the same story as that presented by the studies. I think in combination with other pieces of evidence and hopefully with further studies conducted (if academia deigns to conduct another such a politically incorrect study) we will see it more or less converging around 50%. All current evidence suggest that.
Now as to the "women are crazy" and there's no parallel, sure, in and of itself it's not evidence enough. However, when looking at the broader picture it does make sense. In light of everything I've presented so far it serves as an explanatory model as to how it can be that so many women do this. And edit, it's not 0,65% but half, 0,35% of all those borderline women who in one point over the course of a year would account for all false charges brought forth to police in America.
Now as to the male-female dichotomy, sure, genders rape each other and now and then there are some false rape accusations that do not belong to the archetypical "female-against-male-accusation" scenario. Now it's 10min left and I won't have time to gather any statistics, that I can do for the next round. However, in the broader scheme of things, those numbers are so tiny that they can be overlooked in the context of women falsely accusing men. There's just no comparison and they don't make a difference.
As to my opponent claiming there are women who won't stand a policemans probing question and procedural work and therefore might not want to cooperate, I seriously doubt anyone with a sound conscience would forego an investigation if that meant they could prevent a real rapist from ever raping again. I've can look at that for next round.
Here's the link to the study in Bavaria. http://human-stupidity.com...
It's 4 minutes left but there's no point overdoing it in the last remaining minutes. I'll try to get better wifi reception for next round. :)
I know I could have sounded a bit obsessed by fallacies. But, what I showed is that the whole argument provided by Pro is a fallacy. There's not a single valid argument in the whole first round argument. Then, the resolution is negated.
I will now refute arguments from round 2.
"I provided 13 different cases of false rape accusations was listed with 13 different reasons listed. "
I can list 13 cases of :
This means that all Afro Americans are criminals, that everyone has seen aliens, that all murder accusations are fake, that all Latinos are ignorant, that all users form DDO are troll? Absolutely not. The same applies with the rape accusation. 13 cases of false rape accusations don't mean that almost half of all are false. You can't make an inductive argument from just 13 isolated cases.
" In one case the woman punched herself in the face, ripped her clothes of and told police that two men had broken into her house and raped her. In another one of those cases a woman scratched her face and tore her clothes apart and claimed a man had raped her."
This is just emotive talking. I can tell many horrible stories of true rapes, but this won't prove my point.
" I was amazed to see all the false rape allegations that were made to the Denver Police Department. It was remarkable and surprising to me. You would have to see it to believe it. Any honest veteran sex assault investigator will tell you that rape is one of the most falsely reported crimes that there is."
Being the most falsely reported crime doesn't prove that half of the accusations are false. For instance, if fake murders are at 5%, thefts at 7% and rapes at 10%, rapes would be the most falsely reported crime just a 10% of the accusations would be fake.
"A command officer in the Denver Police sex assaults unit recently told me he placed the false rape numbers at approximately 45 percent. "
Well, this is just telling. I can TELL that my opponent is just a troll and that this is just a joke. However, there's no prove to that.
"Only 7,4% of cases are forwarded for prosecution of false rape"
Pro is making my case here.....
" In 64% of the cases the charges were dropped by prosecution due to lack of evidence. "
Lack of evidence doesn't mean that the accusation is false.
" women going to extreme lengths to make false claims to the police, concocting detailed stories of assaults, even colluding with other women to make it more credible the police, etc. "
This also happens in the other crimes. Nonetheless, proving that some women can go far to fake a crime,does not prove that half of the rape accusations are false.
"Also, the police is not a think thank organisation and can't like feminists do skew any statistics to favour some agenda. Police is ultimately answerable to authorities and as such they do not just make sh*t up."
This is pretty subjective. Everyone know that corruption exists inside the police. Numbers and figures can be changed to favour politicians and groups of power.
"Now we actually have two studies, one with 1200 that came up with a 60% falsity rate and one with 1900 that came up with a 50% rate."
The Bavarian study does not prove that 50% of rape accusations are false. It says that policemen agree that 50% of the accusations are false, but that's from their subjective perspective. The only objective information from the the study is 1)Only in 7.4% of the complaints they propose legal action against the accuser for evidently false accusations 2) 64% of rape/sexual assault cases dropped for lack of evidence. This study show that clearly false accusations are quite minimum (7%) and that a lot of rape cases lack of strong evidence (64%). As you can see, this study does not prove objectively that half of all rape accusations are false.
For the I can't give a deep judging because the link of the source is broken, thus I cannot know if this is a real study. However I already talked about the rather ineffective method of that study. What that study can objectively show is that 27% of rape accusations in the army are false.
Summarizing, none of this studies prove the resolution. The evidence of these studies can show that false accusation are at about 15%(just a quick promedy between the two results).
"Now as to the "women are crazy" and there's no parallel, sure, in and of itself it's not evidence enough. "
Pro concedes this point then.
"As to my opponent claiming there are women who won't stand a policemen probing question and procedural work and therefore might not want to cooperate, I seriously doubt anyone with a sound conscience would forego an investigation if that meant they could prevent a real rapist from ever raping again. I've can look at that for next round."
Most rape victims describe the trial as being "raped all over again" (Frances Andrade). The trial is humiliating, obviously something people want to avoid.
Just to respect sportmanship, I won't post any new argument into this debate. Anyway, remember Pro has the burden of proof, so as far as he does not proves his point, he loses.
Good luck climbing!! Cheers!!
For what it's worth, I haven't had the time to reply to every objection but I have offered some very compelling reasons why women do in fact use false rapes rather lavishly. I've also shown police testimonies of experts in the field as well as the most objective studies conducted on this topic demonstrating that the figures converge more or less around 50% or half.
My opponent has spent quite a bulk of time attacking points such as the "guilt culture" and "women are crazy" arguments - not really hard proof evidence in the first place - trying to prove the proposition is a "fallacy" instead of really going after the empirical data which are the independent studies and credible police testimonies from experts on sex-crimes. He didn't offer any reasons as to why "corruption" should occur in the instance of police reporting of false rapes. That was a very convenient way of dismissing a very substantial part of my argument out-of-hand.
To be fair he did raise some fair objections that I could have responded to if there was enough time so I let you be the judge. I have tried to show that there are many viable explanations as to why false rapes are common that have not really captured the interest of academia or public institutions narrating the story fit to print for public consumption, and thus why we might find figures higher than those normally told in media, public affairs, etc. If we are to follow where the evidence leads, then it is reasonable to say that almost half of all rapes are false. The empirical data bear this out and the rest of my arguments are there to buttress those empirical stats.
Thanks for a good debate!
As showed throughout the debate, there's no conclusive data supporting the resolution.
On one hand, Pro gave some arguments about our culture and the craziness of women. But, as said by himself, they "are not really hard proof evidence in the first place".
On the other hand, He showed some studies "supporting" the preposition. I successfully showed that those studies do not prove the resolution. One of the studies express that just 7,4% of accusations are evidently false. The other study used a rather incorrect method, thus it is invalid.
Pro expressed that my focus on fallacies within his argument was a waste of time. As a matter of fact, pointing out all the fallacies that conform Pro's argument is the best way of negating the resolution. If the argument is full of fallacies, the argument is invalid. Then Pro's argument is invalid.
The burden of proof is on Pro, and since there are no valid arguments supporting Pro's point, the resolution is negated. Vote Con!
Great debate. Good luck to my opponent! Vote Con!
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