The Instigator
UberCryxic
Pro (for)
Tied
6 Points
The Contender
mmadderom
Con (against)
Tied
6 Points

Barack Obama will win the Nevada caucuses tomorrow on the Democratic side.

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Voting Style: Open Point System: 7 Point
Started: 1/18/2008 Category: Politics
Updated: 9 years ago Status: Voting Period
Viewed: 968 times Debate No: 1942
Debate Rounds (3)
Comments (2)
Votes (4)

 

UberCryxic

Pro

The Nevada caucuses start approximately 15 hours from now. I have several good reasons for thinking and predicting that Barack Obama will carry the day on the Democratic side.

1. He has the support of the most powerful union in the state, the Culinary Workers. They will mobilize caucus-goers far more effectively than other organizations backing Hillary or Edwards. In a political environment like Nevada, where turnout is expected to be relatively mild - especially compared to Iowa - activism will be the crucial tipping point. This will help Obama.

2. Recent polls show volatility, but Nevada, being new to caucusing so early, is notoriously difficult to survey accurately and effectively.

3. Hillary's chances suffered after some of her supporters attempted to eliminate gatherings for the caucuses at casino locations. This will backfire on her.

Because of the above reasons, I predict an Obama victory tomorrow. I'm not sure about the margin. It could be really close or it could be Obama winning by anywhere from 5 to 10 points.
mmadderom

Con

Predicting a caucus is far more difficult than predicting a primary as a caucus isn't a popular election like a primary is.

That said, Hillary is leading in virtually every poll conducted by anywhere from 3 to 30 points with the sole exception of the research 2000 poll which has Obama leading by 2 points. While polling data has been less than reliable thus far, and as I mentioned the unique way caucus' are conducted would seem to lessen the blow, the fact that so many polls have Clinton leading has me concluding she will be the likely winner in Nevada and possibly in blow-out fashion.

I also think you are underestimating the Clinton political machines ability to rally the troops to caucus. Yes the culinary workers endorsement is beneficial to Obama, however I don't think that in itself will be enough to overcome a fairly distant 2nd in the polling data.
Debate Round No. 1
UberCryxic

Pro

The RCP average of the latest polls only has Hillary up nearly 4 points, which is not that significant. Her leads are within the margin of error. Yes Hillary does have the backing of the Democratic establishment and strong union support of her own, but the Culinary Workers are often regarded as the kingmakers of Nevada politics. They should prove decisive in this race and yield a victory for Obama.
mmadderom

Con

Oh, absolutely within the margin of error, and if it were only a handful of polls I'd argue exactly that, but it's not,it's a culmination of multiple polls. That, to me anyway, suggests the margin of error is much lower.

Caucus' are strange animals, and literally anything can happen in them. However Clintons solid lead in virtually all polls, combined with Edwards sounding almost like he's been campaigning for Clinton in Nevada I'm convinced Hillary holds the advantage in the caucus.

You also have to remember that Bill Clinton carried Nevada twice. While that doesn't necessarily transfer over to his wife, it does have the potential to play at least a small part in the process.
Debate Round No. 2
UberCryxic

Pro

It's untrue that Edwards has been "campaigning" for Hillary in Nevada. Edwards criticized Obama for some remarks the latter made about Reagan and the Republicans, as well as a distasteful ad run by an outside group supporting Obama, but the theme of his campaign has consistently been about change, same as Obama. Edwards called Hillary the "status quo" candidate in trying to emphasize this motif of futurity and breaking with the past.

I believe every single poll taken has Hillary and Obama within the margin of error or so near it that the results are largely insignificant. As I said above though, Nevada usually, and especially this time around, is notoriously difficult to poll. I think tried-and-tested organization will be far more relevant than what some polls say. Obama has a distinct advantage here and should come out ahead.

Also the recent bickering between the two has damaged Hillary more, according to a few national polls. Obama is likely to profit from a bonanza of black support in Nevada.
mmadderom

Con

Well, national polls have no bearing on Nevada but that's neither here nor there. As I type this, 35% of the causus results are in, Hillary has a 5% lead and they are very close to calling it in her favor.

Looks like the polls were almost dead on. When that many polls are saying nearly the same thing, their accuracy has to be taken into account.
Debate Round No. 3
2 comments have been posted on this debate. Showing 1 through 2 records.
Posted by UberCryxic 9 years ago
UberCryxic
Damn was I wrong....Hillary crushed Obama.
Posted by UberCryxic 9 years ago
UberCryxic
I forgot to mention this in my post, but - for obvious reasons, namely the actual time when the caucuses start - I will cancel this debate by 11 am US Eastern if there are no challengers.
4 votes have been placed for this debate. Showing 1 through 4 records.
Vote Placed by Chob 9 years ago
Chob
UberCryxicmmadderomTied
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Vote Placed by mmadderom 9 years ago
mmadderom
UberCryxicmmadderomTied
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Vote Placed by UberCryxic 9 years ago
UberCryxic
UberCryxicmmadderomTied
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Vote Placed by LandonWalsh 9 years ago
LandonWalsh
UberCryxicmmadderomTied
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