The Instigator
Edgar_Allan_Poe
Con (against)
Losing
0 Points
The Contender
Wylted
Pro (for)
Winning
5 Points

Choosing a one of three doors, then having one of the other two revealed, then switching is best.

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Post Voting Period
The voting period for this debate has ended.
after 2 votes the winner is...
Wylted
Voting Style: Open Point System: 7 Point
Started: 6/4/2015 Category: Miscellaneous
Updated: 1 year ago Status: Post Voting Period
Viewed: 498 times Debate No: 76156
Debate Rounds (3)
Comments (8)
Votes (2)

 

Edgar_Allan_Poe

Con

It is two to one. Doors one and two have goats behind them, door three has a car behind it. You pick door one, door two is revealed, you switch to three and you win. You pick door two, door one is revealed, you switch to three and you win. You pick door three, door one/two (irrelevant) is revealed, you switch to one/two and you loose. With the individual strands of information alone once you reveal one and there are two left it is a 50/50 chance. If you consider the multiple strands of information you see that this is not correct. You have a 33.333% chance of choosing the correct door therefore you most likely did not and there is a 66.666% chance that one of the other two doors. Since the door revealed has to be a goat leaving only one goat and a car (that you most likely did not pick). Therefore it is probable that the car is behind the door left you did not choose.
Wylted

Pro

My opponent is referring to the famous Monty Hall problem, just to be clear. It is as follows;

"Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?"

This problem was originally sent to Marilyn Von Savant (smartest woman in the world) as a brain teaser, and she said to switching doors would give you a better chance to win the car. When she made the reccomendation she had several mathematicians say she was an idiot and it was commonly pointed out that, hey even geniuses can be wrong sometimes. However, later on when computers simulated the problem and kept coming back as showing switching doors was better, many apology letters had to be sent.

My opponent is mistaken that staying on the same door is giving you the same odd as switching.

In round 2 I'll give my best explanation of how to use Bayesian math to solve this problem, and you'll see my position is correct, but for now I'll just use this round to explain the Mony Hall problem, give context and accept. I anxiously await my opponent's arguments and look forward to a good clean debate.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org...
Debate Round No. 1
Edgar_Allan_Poe

Con

My position is that switching gives you the better chance of winning, sorry if I did not make that clear. I mention ways of interpretation that would suggest that it is a 50/50 chance, one being my father's. I imagine that is what you though was mine, though I gave many reasons to prove that switching gives you the better chance. I haven't much more to say, is your position that you should or should not switch?
Wylted

Pro

My position is that you should switch, seeing as how I'm pro on the resolution which specifically states that switching is best. If you intended to take the pro position, you should just conceed the debate right now. If you want to argue as con, we can both make our arguments in the final round, since neither of us has done so yet.

If you meant to argue pro, I'm not quite sure why you'd take the con position. However if you want, I'll be okay with you forfeiting and we can restart the debate with me taking the con side, while you take the pro side, if you don't forfeit I can only assume you want to give arguing the con position a shot, which we can both give ourselves one round to do and we can just make this a one round debate.
Debate Round No. 2
Edgar_Allan_Poe

Con

Edgar_Allan_Poe forfeited this round.
Wylted

Pro

My opponent mistakenly argued the wrong side, please award me conduct and arguments and credit me for using a source and let's move on. Thanks
Debate Round No. 3
8 comments have been posted on this debate. Showing 1 through 8 records.
Posted by stargate 1 year ago
stargate
I know right.
Posted by Proving_a_Negative 1 year ago
Proving_a_Negative
Dam I wish I would have accepted :D Easy win for pro.
Posted by Proving_a_Negative 1 year ago
Proving_a_Negative
Oh shoot. He did choose con. Pro is correct. Con is absolutely wrong. Con is arguing from pro's perspective though -_- I'm not entirely sure he meant to choose Con then :P
Posted by Wylted 1 year ago
Wylted
Con is also saying the title of the debate and the resolution is wrong, according to the title of the debate and his position of con, meaning he is against the resolution. If he meant to argue pro, he shouldn't have stupidly chose the con position.
Posted by Wylted 1 year ago
Wylted
Proving a negative is wrong. Listen, why in the hell is the voting period 6 months.
Posted by stargate 1 year ago
stargate
Well mythbusters proved that it is better to switch when that happens so....
Posted by Fkkize 1 year ago
Fkkize
Wait, are arguing in favor of or against switching?
Posted by Proving_a_Negative 1 year ago
Proving_a_Negative
This is a truism. Nobody can possibly argue that you are wrong without using blatantly incorrect math.
2 votes have been placed for this debate. Showing 1 through 2 records.
Vote Placed by SirMaximus 1 year ago
SirMaximus
Edgar_Allan_PoeWyltedTied
Agreed with before the debate:-Vote Checkmark-0 points
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Total points awarded:02 
Reasons for voting decision: They tie for conduct, because while Con did forfeit 1 round, it was with Pro's permission. I understood both of them pretty well, so they tie for spelling and grammar. Both of them explained that switching was better, because the door you initially picked still has only a 1/3 chance of having a car behind it. Both of them explained that, so they tie for convincing arguments. Pro cited Wikipedia (which is highly accurate, contrary to common belief), but Con didn't cite anything, so Pro wins for reliable sources.
Vote Placed by Proving_a_Negative 1 year ago
Proving_a_Negative
Edgar_Allan_PoeWyltedTied
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Total points awarded:03 
Reasons for voting decision: Ff, Wylted had sound logic to prove his claim. Con was arguing for him also.