The Instigator
jbeforeb1
Con (against)
The Contender
theta_pinch
Pro (for)

Donald Trump will lose in 2020

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Voting Style: Open Point System: 7 Point
Started: 2/6/2018 Category: Politics
Updated: 5 months ago Status: Debating Period
Viewed: 278 times Debate No: 107618
Debate Rounds (3)
Comments (2)
Votes (0)

 

jbeforeb1

Con

As 2020 draws near, there seems to be the idea that Trump is going to lose the election in 2020 because he is deemed unpopular with the electorate, doesn't accomplish anything, and is mentally incompetent to run a country. Also, his scandals. I would like to say that he would lose against the next opponent in 2020. However, if you followed the election even a little bit, you would remember that he was destined to lose by the media for being unfit, offensive, not having ideas, etc. He was seen losing the election by 3, 5 and even 10 points. Clinton was going to win in a landslide. Well, we all know what happened. We all know she won the popular vote and should've won. I would like this debate to not focus on the Electoral College and why it should be eliminated. Rather, I want to go over the idea that Trump will lose in 2020. I would like to see this happen but if history is a memory and analyzing Trump is a strategy in my assessment, he will win again in 2020. He has good marketing skills. He has Twitter at his disposal. I would even say this: the media making him seem like an evil individual may have helped him because they attacked him constantly, never praising him at all and folks saw that as partisan and biased. Some people looked at the comments he said, and thought it wasn't a big deal. They thought the media was pursuing an agenda and saw Trump winning as a win against the people at the top. Again, I would like to see Trump lose the election since it is clear he can't govern even as good as Bush(never mind his policies, just the fact he can keep a house together). Even if his approval rating is low as it is now, does it matter? He already had it low before the election and still won. Your thoughts. Thanks!
theta_pinch

Pro


I would like to bring attention to some factors that I believe were important in Donald Trump's victory, that will likely not be present in the 2020 elections.


First, Trump’s opponent, Hillary Clinton, was also very unpopular. For most of the campaign she too was below 50% popularity. This shows in some of the closest states in the 2016 election:
Michigan--0.3%, New Hampshire--0.4%, Wisconsin--1%, Pennsylvania--1.2%, and so on.


Two unpopular candidates led to very close margins.


However, when we look at Trump’s approval rating, for the most part he has gotten less and less popular since winning the Presidency. There’s been a minor uptick in popularity, but he’s had similar short term fluctuations previously. Meanwhile it cannot be assumed that the Democratic challenger will be as unpopular as Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. So what we are likely to see is that while Donald Trump enters the 2020 election with even lower popularity than in 2016, his opponent will likely enter with higher popularity than Hillary Clinton. With the razor thin margins Trump won by in several states, such a shift could easily give the state to the Democrats.


Related is that Hillary Clinton was under a very public investigation throughout the election. That, along with the last minute revelation of the investigation restarting also hurt her chances in the general election.


In effect in the 2016 election, Donald Trump was running on easy mode against a candidate that even a majority her own party didn’t like or trust, yet still just barely beat out his opponent in multiple states.


Against a more popular and trusted candidate, Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win in 2020.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...


http://abcnews.go.com...


http://abcnews.go.com...


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Debate Round No. 3
2 comments have been posted on this debate. Showing 1 through 2 records.
Posted by Amphia 5 months ago
Amphia
I think he is not the right fit for the Presidency, especially of America. His demeanor and the way he carries himself are more suitable for the life of a business mogul or reality TV star. He should have just stuck to those.
Posted by DontArgueWithMe3333 5 months ago
DontArgueWithMe3333
I agree. Though he has done nothing wrong, the people hate him and will likely elect someone else.
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