Donald Trump will most likely run for president in 2020
Debate Rounds (3)
3 rounds, 4000 characters, 24 hours between rounds
'Most likely' is defined as greater than 50%, but less than 100%
I will argue that Donald Trump, the 'SOB of the GOP', will run for president in the year 2020 for the following reasons regardless of what happens in 2016
1) Successful candidates have a knack for running again in the following election when they don't win the nomination the nomination the first time around.
In this election, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum are running for president after finishing behind Mitt Romney In 2012. Mike Huckabee also ran for president in 2016 after losing to McCain in 2008. Mitt Romney ran for president in 2012 after finishing 2nd place to John McCain in 2008. John McCain ran for president in 2008 after coming in second place to George Bush in 2000.... Even Reagan himself ran for president in 1980 after not winning the nomination in 1976.
On the other side of the political spectrum, Hillary Clinton is running for president in 2016 after finishing a very close second to Barack Obama in 2008.
Candidates who have run failed but at times promising campaigns in past elections routinely try to run for president again in future elections. Donald Trump's campaign certainly qualifies as 'promising' since he has been number 1 in the GOP field for 11 weeks straight. If Trump for some reason does not win the GOP nomination in 2016, history itself indicates that he will give it another shot in 2020.
2) If he wins the nomination but loses the general election, Donald Trump would not be discouraged from running in 2020
McCain won the GOP nomination in 2008, lost, and declined to run in 2012. Romney won the GOP nomination in 2012, lost, and declined to run in 2016. John Kerry won the Dem nomination in 2004, lost, and declined to run in 2008 or in 2016. Candidates who won the primary nomination but lost the general election never ran afterwards, but Donald trump is different than McCain, Romney, or Kerry.
When well known dumbass Kanye West announced he would run for president in 2020, Donald Trump said he would look forward to running against him:
While the comment could have been said as a joke, Donald Trump has proven himself to be very ego-centric, far more egotistical than Kerry, Romney, or McCain... Trump has threatened to run an independent campaign in 2016 if the GOP treated him unfairly, which is something no other major candidate has threatened to do in the past.
Trump clearly shows that he really wants to become president, and is willing to pursue unconventional means to pursue it if thats what it takes for him to become president. Running in 2020 despite winning the nomination in 2016 and still losing the general election anyways would certainly qualify as 'unconventional', a phrase that greatly applies to Trump as a candidate and his campaign overall up to this point.
3) If he becomes president in 2016, he will run again in 2020
No president since Rutherford B Hayes in 1880 was elected to a first term as president went on to voluntarily decided against voting a second time, and Trump does not seem like he would be humble enough to join Polk in that category for reasons stated before.
Imabench is right--Donald Trump's campaign is unique. For this reason, it is important not to treat Trump like a regular candidate.
The fact of the matter is is that Donald Trump is not campaigning in order to become President. He is campaigning on behalf of his brand. The Baltimore Sun writes that in running, Trump "is striving to broaden the Trump brand, piggybacking on the political process to enhance his ability to make millions as a wildly successful deal-maker."
It is for this reason that Trump lied about how much money he makes. It is for this reason that Trump alienated Hispanics and Latinos from his campaign--the second largest ethnic voting block. It is for this reason that Trump descended on a gold-plated escalator, and freely insults women. It's why he talks about "beating" China, and how wonderful Trump Tower is. That's why he won't apologize. All of these actions are signs of business ambitions rather than political ambitions.
Trump is making hundreds of millions of dollars off of the Trump brand name being associated with being a 'winner'--someone successful, with lots of wealth and power. We can observe this objective woven into Trump's favorite insult: "Loser."
It is within this context--of Trump's trying to associate his name with "winner"--that Trump's campaign for President makes sense. And it is exactly for this reason that Trump will not run for President in 2020.
0. If Trump resigns.
Immabench forgot to consider this most important possibility. So far, Trump has risen to the top of the campaign, but what will happen if it appears that Trump will lose? Trump's brand relies on his being seen as a 'winner,' and if he loses his brand would be badly damaged. For this reason it is almost certain that Trump would withdraw from the campaign rather than face a defeat. In this instance, Trump would claim that he was "treated unfairly," like he claimed at the Fox News debate before boycotting them for several days. In that situation, he'd likely claim that he is above the political process, that politics is for "dummies," and that he has no need of them. In that case, he'd absolutely not re-run for President, since that would destroy his image of being a "winner."
1. If Trump loses
As I said before, it is extremely likely that Trump will withdraw from the election before he has the chance to lose. However, if for some reason he hangs on until the end, he'd likely give the same excuse--that politics is for dummies--for why he "didn't-lose." In that case, he'd almost certainly not run again.
Moreover, of the 40 instances of bids for Presidency in the GOP, only 6 were instances of sequential vies for re-election. That is to say, even if Trump does vie for re-election like a normal candidate, there is an 85% chance he would at least wait for four years for voters to forget about his recent failure.
As far as his response to Kanye's quote goes, Trump was merely talking smack, like a "winner." This does not mean he is actually planning to run in 2020.
2. If Trump wins the nomination.
For the same reasons as 1, Trump would not re-run, and definitely not in 2020. Moreover, it is even LESS likely that he'd run in 2020, because he's branding campaign would have already been accomplished. If he re-ran, people would get bored of him, and bored of the Trump brand.
3. If he wins.
No President has ever been elected without prior political or military experience. Moreover, Trump would have to win without Hispanics and women. This simply won't happen.
Other reasons to resign:
There are many thinks we can't know about the future that could prevent Trump from running--from deaths of family members to sickness. There are some things we can know--Trump is a businessperson, so he'd likely need to run his businesses, which would be impaired by a campaign.
1) He's only running to promote his brand
"He is campaigning on behalf of his brand"
Trump has lost so much business for his brand by running for President that if he actually WAS running to benefit his brand, he would have stopped months ago. He's had golf tournaments at his golf courses canceled, he was replaced on The Apprentice, and NBC backed out of showing his Miss America and Miss Universe pageant... And that was just for his comments on Mexicans
"All of these actions are signs of business ambitions rather than political ambitions. "
So sabotaging his businesses for the sake of his political campaign are signs that he values his businesses more than political ambitions? That doesnt make any sense at all.
Trump is clearly running because he wants to be president, not because he is just trying to promote his brand.
2) If Trump loses once, he wont risk losing again
"Trump's brand relies on his being seen as a 'winner,' and if he loses his brand would be badly damaged"
His brand is already being damaged by his campaign and he has only ever been winning in the polls to this point.
"he'd absolutely not re-run for President, since that would destroy his image of being a "winner." "
All the people I mentioned in round 1 ran again in later elections after failing the first time around, and Trump is easily egotistical enough to want to run in 2020 if he doesn't get the nomination in 2016.
" it is extremely likely that Trump will withdraw from the election before he has the chance to lose"
Yeah no duh, but like I said before, other candidates have also withdrawn from a race before they had the chance to lose and ended up launching new campaigns in later elections anyways. Trump would certainly be egotistical enough to give it another try if he thought he had any chance of winning.
"he'd likely give the same excuse--that politics is for dummies--for why he "didn't-lose." In that case, he'd almost certainly not run again."
Yes he would, because Donald Trump always goes back against his words whenever it suits him. He's ended boycotting Fox News shows twice now after vowing to never go on the network again, his last one didn't even last a full week before he went against his own words: http://onpolitics.usatoday.com...
"He would at least wait for four years for voters to forget about his recent failure"
And 4 years would be how long it would be from 2016 to 2020, so its covered.
3) If Trump wins the nomination in 2016, but not the general election
"For the same reasons as 1, Trump would not re-run, and definitely not in 2020"
If he comes that close to winning it all the first time around, it would actually make sense for him to try to win it all again in 2020 since he came so close to actually pulling off a win the first time around.
"If he re-ran, people would get bored of him, and bored of the Trump brand."
This is the GOP voting base we are talking about here, many of them can be entertained by anyone who boldly says something racist. seeing Trump run again in 2020 after winning the nomination in 2016 and losing would only excite the people who voted for him the first time around.
4) Trump becomes President
"Trump is a businessperson, so he'd likely need to run his businesses, which would be impaired by a campaign."
He regularly lets his own kids run his businesses and im sure that if he became President he would entrust his businesses to their care http://www.dailymail.co.uk...
Also if you could not use tinyurl for your sources that would be encouraged, since doing so is kind of a dirty tactic
His losing the sponsors is probably bad for him, but that happened in the past--there's nothing he can do about that now. That was perhaps a bad business decision, but it was still a business decision. The reason he did said those bad things about Mexicans is not that he hates Mexicans (thought he might), but to show off his power--to show that he can say whatever he wants and get away with it. That is part of the Trump brand--in-your-face (perhaps tacky), obtrusive "winning."
My opponent did not respond to my percentage analysis, which puts Trump's likelihood of re-election at well below 15%. I'm running out of time unfortunately, but my analysis stands.
1) He's doing it for his 'Brand'
"I have given several sources for why Trump is doing his campaign for brand building"
And I gave several more sources showing that if he were doing it for his brand, he would have stopped, since his brand has suffered as a direct result of his campaign in losing sponsers and even tv shows.
"I'm not saying he did it ONLY for brand recognition, but brand recognition is part of it."
Then you concede that Donald Trump is also running for president because he genuinely WANTS to be president, which plays into my other arguments of why he will most likely run for president in 2020.
"His losing the sponsors is probably bad for him, but that happened in the past-"
You have to provide sources for your claims con....
"The reason he did said those bad things about Mexicans is.....to show that he can say whatever he wants and get away with it"
But he can't, as evidenced by how many sponsors and how much revenue he has lost as a result of saying those very things.
"My opponent did not respond to my percentage analysis"
Yeah, for 2 reasons: 1) You didn't source the claim for that statistic you pulled out of thin air, and 2) Because you said 'there is an 85% chance he would at least wait for four years for voters to forget about his recent failure.'
Newsflash: 2020 is exactly 4 years away from 2016, meaning that by your own analysis there is an 85% that Donald Trump will run in 2020 regardless of what happens in 2016.....
"I'm running out of time unfortunately"
Yeah I can tell, youve conceded almost every argument made in round 2.
Reasons to vote Pro:
1) Huckabee, Perry, Santorum, McCain, Romney, Clinton, and Ronald Reagan himself all ran presidential campaigns after their previous campaigns ended in failure... All of them showed enough promise in their first campaigns to convince them to try running again, and Donald Trump has shown more than enough promise in his campaign for it to be more than plausible that he will give it another shot (in 2020) like so many other politicians have tried before him.
2) Trump has delegated a good amount of his businesses to be run by his kids already, and said he would let his kids run his businesses if he were elected president, meaning that Trump would not resign from running or being president just to run his businesses like con tried to claim.
3) No president since the 1880's who was elected to a first term voluntarily declined to run for a second term, meaning that if Trump wins in 2016, there's certainly no way he would decide to NOT run for reelection in 2020.
4) There's literally no evidence that people would grow 'bored' of Trump if he decided to run again in 2020, and con himself didn't even source the original claim that they would when he first brought up the argument.
5) Donald Trump has never once said anything along the lines of 'Politics is for dummies' like con has also claimed and failed to source.
Trump doesn't win nomination ---> Still has shown enough potential to get him to try again in 2020 like so many other politicians have done before him after failing the first time around.
Trump wins nomination but not the general election -----> Trump is not humble or courteous enough to not try to run again like Kerry, Romney, or McCain did after they lost the general election
Trump wins the general election ---> Guaranteed he will run for re-election
Con's entire argument for why Trump wont run in 2020 is because "it would hurt his brand", but anyone can see that Trump is not campaigning to try to improve his businesses or his brand since if he were, he would have stopped campaigning already since he has done substantial harm to his brand and his businesses. It is for all reasons stated above (many of which con has conceded) that I conclude that Donald Trump will more than likely run for president in 2020 regardless of what happens in 2016
Activist forfeited this round.
1 votes has been placed for this debate.
Vote Placed by truthiskey 1 year ago
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Reasons for voting decision: FF and pro won on the major issue of branding
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