Would Russia wage war on Ukraine? In this argument I am saying that Russia would not wage war on Ukraine. I believe this because:
- Russia would not declared war on a country with so much international support.
- Russia has too much to lose from such a large war; we all heard about the damage done to the Russian economy simply by stopping bank transactions with them, and much of there wealth and power comes from international trade.
I think that if it comes around, Russia will wage war on Ukraine and its allies. First off, you have to remember that Russia has its own allies, and if push comes to shove, China will most likely join Russia, and that will create a lot of power in the faction. Another thing is that Russia has very strong interests in Ukraine, like Ethnic Russians and its strategic location. The rest of Europe is a wild card. For example, Germany gets most of its energy from Russia, and not having that energy will be major hit to their economy. Germany could go either way.
I do not believe Russia would wage war on Ukraine. Ukraine has many gas pipelines going through it, not only making it a strategic advantage for Russia, but also a threat to the petroleum supply in the rest on East and Central Europe. Many European countries would not want Russia to have such power over their gas supplies. Another important point that can be made is that the United States has already sent soldiers to East Europe, and will not hesitate to defend our Eastern European allies; America has already proven itself as a very defensive country when it comes to their allies. Most of the country would not be taken without resistance, and other Eastern European countries that were liberated from Russia after WWII, such as Belarus, would likely come to the aid of there ally. Ukraine also has NATO on there side. Russia is not a very impulsive county and would see the treat these allies pose.
I do see your side of the argument, but Russia currently has 40,000 troops right across the border, and can take the country very quickly. Like you said, Ukraine has many oil pipelines running through it, so if Russia were to take control of the country, they could hold the rest of Europe hostage by threatening to stop energy from coming to their countries, resulting in a huge economical hit. Many European countries, like Germany, would not want to attack an area with such a big threat looming over their heads. America might defend Ukraine, but like I said, China will almost surely join Russia, and with China comes Chinas allies.
I see your side of the argument also, but Germany has many major gas pipelines and storage/distribution facilities inside it or on its border. Also other countries such as Latvia or Romania could take Russia"s place as a major fuel supplier; there are many other sources of petroleum in East Europe. And like I said earlier, many parts of the country would not submit without a fight, and the UN and the US would not hesitate to send an equal or larger amount of troops than what Russia has immediately available on the border to counter the Russian invasion. And despite the fact that China would likely ally with Russia in this war, that doesn"t mean that all of its allies would join such a violent and costly fight, and many of China"s allies are unfit to fight superpowers in the UN and America.