Is China Democratizing?
Debate Rounds (4)
Round 1: Acceptance and Opening Arguments
Round 2: Main Arguments
Round 3: Rebuttals
Round 4: Closing Statements
I shall take the position of Pro for this debate. I will argue that China is experiencing the beginnings of situations that happened to the Soviet Union right around the time of its collapse, and if similar situations happen to China, then the end results will likely be similar; with China transitioning away from a single-party, authoritarian, communist state, to a more western style democracy.
Con is free to argue otherwise.
Now, when looking at the conditions that were present at the Collapse of the Soviet Union, and comparing them to how China is today, the conditions that led to the Soviet Union's collapse are not present in modern China. However, while the exact conditions that led to the Soviet Union's collapse are not present, precursors to those conditions are. As of right now, China's GDP growth is slowing down rapidly, from an average of 10.6% annually between 2000 and 2009, to just 8.6% between 2010 and 2014.  Now while that might not seem like a statistically significant difference in GDP growth, the numbers listed are just an average over several years, with actual GDP growth in 2014 being just 6.8%.  What this indicates is that China's GDP growth is slowing down, and if this trend continues, then China will soon be facing negative GDP growth before too long. As for current dissatisfaction with the central government, while slowing GDP growth is likely to contribute to any such dissent, there already appears to be growing dissent against the Chinese government, as evidenced by the expenditures used to maintain domestic stability . Assuming that indents of dissent among the Chinese people continue to increase with time, then the Chinese government will have to spend more money to maintain domestic stability, add that onto the fact that a slowing GDP growth will likely increase dissatisfaction with the Chinese Government, leading to more instances of dissent among the Chinese, and the fact that a slowing GDP growth rate will prevent China from having the economic resources to combat this dissent, and China's communist government will be fighting a losing battle in the future. It is for those reasons that I believe that within the next few decades, China will abandon its communist government in favor of a government more representative of its people.
Its common knowledge that the middle east is warlike. Nobody can turn on the news for long and not hear about war in the middle east. Con contends that the process of democratization will take so long that China will be destroyed before democracy can take place.
Which invasion force will hit first is hard to tell. Will China get destroyed by global climate change, Russia ., the middle east, or perhaps another unseen threat. Most importantly is Russia doesn't seem very democratic right now. .
Apart from the Middle-East, my opponent argues that Russia could potentially invade China, I must question my opponent's judgement, as he has provided little evidence that Russia would want to invade China to begin with.
With all that in mind, I see little evidence that China would be invaded by any neighboring country, and thus see little weight behind my opponent's arguments. I now give my opponent the chance to refute any claims I have made.
Claim 1: The middle east has invaded India many times.
Warrant: "There were many causes for Muslim conquest but the major reason was the spread of Islam. The Muslim dominated Kabul, the Punjab, and Sind, before intruding in to India." .
Impact: Middle eastern states have spread out of the middle east and towards China in the past.
Claim 2: The middle east has invaded Africa in the past
Impact: The middle east is capable of invading outside itself.
Claim 3: There is still a strong middle east influence in India today.
Impact: There is a strong Muslim culture persistent in India today.
Given the evidence Con contends that the middle east will invade and conqueror China before China can become a democracy. This is just of many threats.
Perhaps the greatest threat to China is pollution and Global Climate Change.
Claim 4: Air pollution claims over a million Chinese lives annually.
Warrant: Study Links Polluted Air in China to 1.6 Million Deaths a Year .
Impact: Already a great number of lives are claimed by pollution. It is logical to assume that a stone in motion will stay in motion and that this problem will be worse, thus weakening China. "A body in motion tends to stay in motion unless acted on by an outside force" .
Claim 5: Global Climate Change is a dire threat to China.
Warrant "Climate change could have a "huge impact" on China, reducing crop yields and harming the environment, the country's top weather scientist has warned, in a rare official admission.".
Impact: Reducing crop yields is a threat to any nation. Considering China's huge population this could lead to famine and riots which would leave China vulnerable.
Claim 6: Global climate change can cause sea levels to rise threatening coastal regions of China.
Warrant: "Sea level rise is caused primarily by two factors related to global warming: the added water from melting land ice and the expansion of sea water as it warms" . This map proves China has many coastal areas. .
Impact: Sea levels rising will create stress for people not only in China, but in other countries. Refugees escaping rising sea levels will cause chaos. Perhaps even World War III.
Claim 7: There is enough nuclear devices to blow up the entire world several times.
Warrant: "Do We Really Need to Blow up the Planet Five Times Over?" .
Impact: World War III will most likely end the world.
Claim 8: Global climate change could cause the end of the world.
Warrant: "Apocalypse perhaps a little later
Climate change may be happening more slowly than scientists thought. But the world still needs to deal with it" .
Impact: If the world ends before China can democratize, then China will not have democratized and Con will be correct.
Claim 9: There is already an accelerated rate of extinction.
Warrant: "Some centuries might see more than one mammalian extinction, and conversely, sometimes several centuries might pass without the loss of any mammal species. Yet the past 400 years have seen 89 mammalian extinctions, almost 45 times the predicted rate, and another 169 mammal species are listed as critically endangered." .
Impact: Current extinction rate suggests mass extinction underway. Perhaps end of the human era.
Con has produced evidence that the China faces many threats. The main threat being a combination of Global Climate Change, invasion, and nuclear world war III. Sea levels rising will cause refugees. Fleeing refugees will spark tensions causing invasions. Famine will further agitate the problem. The invasions will escalate tensions until a nuclear apocalypse occurs ending the world including China. Even if this somehow avoided, the threat of global climate change is like a freight train and China may not democratize in time.
Thanks for the debate.
Con contends that the process of democratization will take so long that humans will be extinct before China can become a democracy. Global climate change will induce friction including fleeing refugees from rising sea levels and famine. These frictions will lead to World War III and nuclear Armageddon. Thanks for the debate, Con had a lot of fun. I hope Pro did too. Vote Con.
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