The Instigator
jedichamp
Pro (for)
Losing
6 Points
The Contender
9spaceking
Con (against)
Winning
9 Points

Is China a threat to the United States?

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Post Voting Period
The voting period for this debate has ended.
after 3 votes the winner is...
9spaceking
Voting Style: Open Point System: 7 Point
Started: 11/14/2014 Category: Politics
Updated: 2 years ago Status: Post Voting Period
Viewed: 1,149 times Debate No: 65164
Debate Rounds (4)
Comments (9)
Votes (3)

 

jedichamp

Pro

The format will be as follows:
First Round: Acceptance
Second Round: Initial Arguments
Third Round: Rebuttals
Fourth Round: Last Rebuttals and Conclusion.
9spaceking

Con

Accepted. No way is China a threat; Japan totally crushed them and still got beaten by US when it came to world war II.
Debate Round No. 1
jedichamp

Pro

I Stand in Affirmation that China is a threat to the United States. I will start by offering definitions:

China: China, officially the People's Republic of China, is a sovereign state located in East Asia. It is the world's most populous country, with a population of over 1.35 billion. The PRC is a single-party state governed by the Communist Party, with its seat of government in the capital city of Beijing.[1]

Threat: A security threat is any incident or confrontation that jeopardizes security, which, defined by the Collins English Dictionary, is any precautions taken to ensure against theft, espionage, etc.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is the United States program against security threats. [2]

Therefore, if I can prove that China jeopardizes the United States security, in any of it's various forms (cyber security, economics, hegemony, military, etc,) then I win the round.

I will now go over my contentions in Affirmation:

1) China is an Economic Threat:

China has a population of 1.35 Billion people, the worlds largest, thus giving them the means to produce and sell on a level unlike any other nation. According to the International Comparison Program (ICP), under the authority of the United Nations and hosted by the World Bank, new assessments put China's economy at 87% of the size of the US in 2011. [3].That was three years ago. And in 2005, the same organisation put China at only 43%. Clearly they are growing and it is estimated that they will overtake us economically within a decade or two.

It doesn't help that we are economically dependent on them. Not only do we import $29 billion from China, ($22 billion more than we export, so in other words, we're in a trade deficit,) but China owns about $1.2 trillion of our national debt in bills, notes and bonds, according to the Treasury. [4]

With such an economic dependence on China, it is almost guaranteed that any future geo-political moves we make will only be made after considering China's reaction.

I will now move on to my next point.

2) China is a Defense Threat

The People's Liberation Army of China, or the PLA, have 2,285,000 active military personnel, and 2,300,000 reserve personnel, a total of over 5 million troops available should the occasion arrive. That's 3 million more troops than the United States. [5] It's worth noting that the United States military is worn down, overstretched by keeping bases in countries worldwide. The U.S. fighting capability has decreased a lot due to wars in the middle East and military suicide rates. Since the war on terror began in 2001, approx. 6,717 American servicemen have died, and 57,614 have been critically wounded or missing. [6] And though the United States spends 39% of the World's defense expenditures[7], that is not enough to stay ahead of emerging superpower rivals such as Russia and China. Secretary of State Chuck Hagel recently said "' While we have been engaged in two large land-mass wars over the last 13 years, potential adversaries have been modernizing their militaries, developing and proliferating disruptive capabilities across the spectrum of conflict. This represents a clear and growing challenge to our military power." [8] Also, Micheal Pillsbury, Director of the Center of Chinese Strategy at the Hudson Institute, wrote in a recent article entitled "China and the United States Are Preparing for War"
(link here http://www.foreignpolicy.com...)
writes
"Should we really be worried about war between the United States and China? Yes. Over the last four decades of studying China, I have spoken with hundreds of members of China's military, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), and read countless Chinese military journals and strategy articles. Chinese military and political leaders believe that their country is at the center of American war planning. In other words, Beijing believes that the United States is readying itself for the possibility of a conflict with China -- and that it must prepare for that eventuality." [9]
Basically, even though we tend to think that we're the most powerful nation on Earth, or that now that we're winding down in the Middle East it's ok to think we're done fighting, China is biding it's time, preparing to overtake us as the world's leader, whether through economic or military means, and in all actuality, probably through both.

Even through Cyber Security, the Chinese Government has been actively hacking and stealing U.S. technologies, business trade secrets, and defense blueprints and vital secrets through a cyber military unit called PLA 61398. [10]. Just this month the PLA has unveiled a new stealth bomber, the J-31, that, according to U.S. Defense Officials, is a carbon copy of our F-35 stealth jet. And how was this technology obtained? Through hacking.[11]

In conclusion, it's clear to see that China is a threat to the United States, mainly for economic and defense reasons, and for that I stand in affirmation. Thank you.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org...
[2} http://www.ehow.com...
[3]http://www.bbc.com...
[4] http://usgovinfo.about.com...
[5]http://www.globalfirepower.com...
[6]http://en.wikipedia.org...
[7]http://en.wikipedia.org...
[8]http://news.yahoo.com...
[9] http://www.foreignpolicy.com...
[10]http://en.wikipedia.org...
[11]http://news.yahoo.com...
9spaceking

Con

1. Economic threat
China will only become an economic threat if they see we keep on failing to produce enough money to fulfill the debt, then declare war on us. Then, not only can we NOT borrow money from China, I'm guessing even our allies will be reluctant, since our economy is kind of bad. But so far, so good. China sees that we're gradually paying our debt, and as long as we keep the money flowing in, they'll be happy. And we CAN keep on paying our debt because we can keep borrowing forever. From [http://v.gd...]:
"the government can just roll over its debts in perpetuity..... We can, and in fact have, borrowed forever....the government dramatically decreased its debt-to-GDP ratio in the three decades following World War II, despite mostly running deficits during the time."
Chart:


This only shows that our GDP is growing faster than our debt. Thus it must be concluded; China would be kind of disappointed that we may not be able to completely pay off our debt any time soon, but as our GDP grows faster than the debt, China knows it'll be getting that 18 billion dollars at the end. Why waste 18 billion dollars? China can sit there happily and watch the money flow in. No way is China an economic threat to the US.

2. Defence threat
Three million more soldiers? No problem. Using only two nuclear bombs, we pretty much completely destroyed two of Japan's cities. [source: http://ww2db.com... now, "Global Zero says the United States has 7,700 nuclear warheads, citing a Federation of American Scientists report. The Department of Defense disclosed in 2012 that “as of September 30, 2009, the U.S. stockpile of nuclear weapons consisted of 5,113 warheads.” [source: http://v.gd....]
Those 5,000 warheads would be extremely dangerous and possibly elevate the battlefield advantage of the US. Also, the US has many, MANY allies, within the NATO.

Military Allies of the United States
NATO Members
Albania
Belgium
Bulgaria
Canada
Croatia
Czech Republic
.... [few ommited here to save space]
Spain
Turkey
United Kingdom

[source: http://wiki.answers.com...]
If China ever declares war on the US, it'll have to face these other countries' help to the US as well. It would be quite difficult for China to beat out US's allies AND US.

As for hacking into the U.S. technologies, the US has its counter attacks too. A study shows US has been watching China and Hong Kong, spying on their people. "In Beijing, Tsinghua University is home to one of China’s six major backbone networks, the China Education and Research Network (CERNET) from where internet data from millions of Chinese citizens could be mined." [source: http://v.gd...] Not only so, "The NSA does all kinds of things like hack Chinese cell phone companies to steal all of your SMS data," the same source states. You see here China may attack US, but US counter attacks even harsher. You steal blueprints? We track your cell phone calls and data.

Now for my arguments for why China isn't a threat. All 5 reasons are from http://v.gd...: (I will give logic to support the site's assertions)
"1. Geographical constraints. America spent much of its history expanding under doctrines such as Manifest Destiny, China’s potential for territorial growth is severely limited by geography. To the west it faces the barren Tibetan plateau and Gobi Desert. To the south the Himalayan mountains present an imposing barrier to the Indian Subcontinent. To the north.....(you get the idea)...So aside from the hapless Vietnamese who share the southern coastal plain and China’s historical claim to Taiwan, there isn’t much opportunity for wars of conquest on China’s periphery."
It is clear that China is greatly separated from America. Not only so, its exploration is not as good as America, as America has the "Manifest Destiny" as mentioned above.

"2. Demographic trends. ....China's population is aging rapidly due to the one-child policy imposed in 1979. The current fertility rate... is well below the level of 2.1 required to maintain a stable population over the long run, and also far below the birthrates seen in other emerging Asian nations ...“within a few years, the working age population will reach a historical peak and then begin a sharp decline.” The vast pool of cheap labor that fueled China’s economic miracle has already begun disappearing ... a growing population of old people will undermine efforts to stimulate internal demand while creating pressure for increased social-welfare spending."
We clearly see here China's one-child policy destroying itself. There is less workers laboring and useless old people meandering about. If China cannot produce weapons for war--or even supply soldiers for war--then certainly it would not be a threat to the US.

"3. Economic dependency. ... exports of goods and services comprise over a quarter of China’s gross domestic product. ... the reliance of an export-driven economy on foreign markets makes China’s prosperity — per capita GDP is below $10,000 – much more vulnerable than America’s. China has sold over $100 billion more in goods to the U.S. so far this year than it has bought,...China is so dependent on offshore resources, markets and investors to keep its economy growing that it can’t run the risk of really scaring its trading partners."
Again, America's allies? Keep in mind that currently, China is a great trade partner with the US. If China went to declare war, not only would US's allies be not willing to trade with China, but the great bulk of that $100 billion per year would disappear. China does not have any economic advantage over the US.

"4. Political culture. ... the Communist Party monopolizes power in China... little opportunity for fundamental reform of the political system. Party officials at all levels routinely leverage that monopoly to engage in epic corruption. Bribery, embezzlement, kickbacks and property theft are endemic....military posts are sold “for the equivalent of hundreds of thousands of pounds each,” ... President Xi Jinping’s crackdown on graft ....suggesting a culture of corruption reminiscent of New York’s Tweed Ring. Tweed was driven from power through democratic processes, whereas China’s political culture offers no such solution. "
Here through an example of corruption shows that China's communism structure is very untrustworthy. Who's to say that bribery wouldn't prevent China leaders from going against themselves? One second, they declare war. The other, they escape to some secret bunker with 100,000 pounds greedily held gingerly within their hands.

"5. Military weakness. ... Military.com reports today that the Pentagon is out with its latest ominous assessment of China’s military buildup, which is said to encompass everything from stealthy fighters to maneuvering anti-ship missiles to anti-satellite weapons.... the threat they pose to the U.S. at present is not so clear. For instance, Beijing doesn’t have the reconnaissance network needed to track and target U.S. warships, and if it did the weapons it launched would face the most formidable air defenses in the world.... the best public information available suggests that China has about 250 warheads in its strategic arsenal, most of which can’t reach America; the U.S. has 4,600 nuclear warheads available for delivery by missile or plane, and an additional 2,700 in storage.

China has not possessed a credible sea-based deterrent force ... China is an emerging regional power that is unlikely to ever match America in the main measures of military power unless dysfunctional political processes in Washington impair our nation’s economy and defenses."
As you see here China's military forces, although seeming terrifying, offer no real threat to America. America's amount of nuclear warheads vastly outrange China's warheads.

China VS America? There's no doubt America would win.

Debate Round No. 2
jedichamp

Pro

I will start the Rebuttal round by attacking my opponents (or should I say a website author's) case. Since my opponent attempted to rebut my case in the initial arguments round instead of the rebuttal round, those arguments will not and should not be recognized, but if I have sufficient time I will address them for the sake of debate. Should I not get to them this round, I will address them in Round 4 for Last rebuttals to stay within the framework of this round.

"1. Geographical constraints". Here my opponent talks about China's geographical constraints that limit them from expanding. However, this does not decrease the threat that China is should war break out. If we look to the expansion of Japan from 1932-1942 or the rise of Nazi Germany taking territory across 3 continents we can see that immediate borders are not a deterrent to countries willing to expand.

"2. Demographic trends.". Here my opponent talks about China's aging population. But as I mentioned in my case, China has a massive army that is either active or in reserve, eclipsing the United States Armed Forces, and though China has a 1 Child-Policy they are still projected to have a population of 1,393,076,000 by 2030, WAY higher than the United States 361,680,000, and furthermore, China is expected to stay ahead of the United States continuing even after 2050. [R1]

"
3. Economic dependency." Here my opponent attempts to claim that China is economically dependent on the United States. This is not true. Again i point to my case where I said that we are in a $22 billion trade deficit with China, and that China's economy is expected to outpace ours within the next decade. We are dependent own them, making them a economic threat. They literally own us. Should war break out, (which isn't the debate, rather, are they just a threat) China's resource and export deals with Russia, Iran, Pakistan, and with many African countries can balance out the United States.

" 4. Political culture." While my opponent talks about corruption in the PRC, note that the U.S.also deals with government corruption to, and, as I stated and will restate, Micheal Pillsbury, Director of the Center of Chinese Strategy at the Hudson Institute writes how "Over the last four decades of studying China, I have spoken with hundreds of members of China's military, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), and read countless Chinese military journals and strategy articles. Chinese military and political leaders believe that their country is at the center of American war planning. In other words, Beijing believes that the United States is readying itself for the possibility of a conflict with China -- and that it must prepare for that eventuality." Clearly the PLA is preparing for war. China has been wary of us since 1949 and with it's emerging strength it still is a threat, and recognizes us as such.

5." Military weakness." While we may have better technology, China outnumbers us, will outnumber us, and is catching up on a technological level. And while my opponent writes about our nuclear strength, this only ADDS to my side. If nukes really are our card we can hold over China's head, it is because conventionally we see them AS A THREAT.,

Again, this debate is on whether China is a threat, whether economical or militarily, not who would win a war. My opponent has failed to show how China is not a threat, rather, his points only add to the reasoning of why we should be concerned. Geo-graphics won't stop a country from being a threat, their population will continue to outpace ours, we are very economically dependent on them, not the other way around, the PRC still despise us despite corruption, and their ,military is growing based on a plan to rival us. For these reasons my opponents case falls. This concludes my initial rebuttals. I will address his rebuttals in the proper round, as these were made in the initial arguments round.

[R1]http://en.wikipedia.org...
9spaceking

Con

1. Geographical constraints
Japan is Japan, Germany is Germany. Japan almost managed to take over China once. You should consider that.

2. Demographic
Again, how in the universe was China defeated by Japan? [source of China being defeated: http://www.theguardian.com...]

3. Economic dependency: Still, China seems heavily dependent on America, and no source from my opponent suggests that these trade partners can match up to US's massive $100 billion per year.

4. Political culture
See this? China sees US as a threat, not the other way around. They have to prepare for war, we're not really worried about China.

5. Military weakness
They won't be a threat once we launch the nuclear warheads.

Dropped arguments
-US allies
-China's weak navy forces
-China's culture defeats itself
-One child policy is destroying its own work-force
-US can borrow money forever so it doesn't have to worry about running out of money even without China
Debate Round No. 3
jedichamp

Pro

jedichamp forfeited this round.
9spaceking

Con

No idea what happened to round 2 but whatever. I'm sure that'll be fixed soon enough. Vote me.
Debate Round No. 4
9 comments have been posted on this debate. Showing 1 through 9 records.
Posted by 9spaceking 2 years ago
9spaceking
you can only plagiarize if you copy something and state it as your own.
Posted by Josephcrook 2 years ago
Josephcrook
9spaceking, the fact that you provided your own information does not mean it was not plagiarized, it means you added information to the thing you plagiarized.
Posted by jedichamp 2 years ago
jedichamp
You just plagiarized a website. That was unfair.
Posted by 9spaceking 2 years ago
9spaceking
*information=source
Posted by 9spaceking 2 years ago
9spaceking
They're not plagiarized because I provided information. -.-
THIS is plagiarizing: http://www.debate.org...
Posted by OverLordSandwich 2 years ago
OverLordSandwich
@9spaceking:
All of your arguments sound very plagiarized from the sources you provided.
You arguments are sound but your ethics are poor...
Posted by 9spaceking 2 years ago
9spaceking
where da heck did round 2 go? Can ye guys see it? I sure can't.
Posted by missmedic 2 years ago
missmedic
Is China a threat to the United States? Only if the United States fails to pay back the 17 trillion.
Posted by rich123 2 years ago
rich123
wow your arguement is something that happened over 60 years ago?????????? World has changed much since then.
3 votes have been placed for this debate. Showing 1 through 3 records.
Vote Placed by DarthKirones 2 years ago
DarthKirones
jedichamp9spacekingTied
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Total points awarded:24 
Reasons for voting decision: FF, but pro's sources were better.
Vote Placed by Gabe1e 2 years ago
Gabe1e
jedichamp9spacekingTied
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Total points awarded:21 
Reasons for voting decision: Conduct to Con for ff, but I don't know, both arguments were good.
Vote Placed by carriead20 2 years ago
carriead20
jedichamp9spacekingTied
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Total points awarded:24 
Reasons for voting decision: Con had slightly better arguments and conduct due to ff. Pro gets sources because he had more. As for Spelling and Grammar its tied.