Is the meti project worth the risk?
Debate Rounds (4)
Good luck, pro.
I would argue that the chance of success is relatively low however i don't believe that a seti project alone will create a probability of success that if even close to that of the combined operations of both. This is because our listening devices would be unable to detect a general radio wave that was either directed at someone else (i.e another one of this civilisation's terrorises) or in every direction. We are only able to detect a message directly sent to us specifically. Therefore we can not know if there are civilisations out there until they have made an attempt to contact them or we observe a dyson sphere. As a result it is vital that we send out information that details our location in order for a conversation to take place. While a civilisation with multiple planets may be able to locate us with a triangulation methods for the alien race to decide to speak back we should show a general interest in talking to them otherwise they may consider it too dangourus to speak to us. Also the alien race could be in the same situation as us where their radio equipment is only good enough to detect direct messages therefore we could never know the other existed despite being in a distance in which direct messages could allow us to communicate. While sending messages towards likely areas of space gives us a fairly low probability of success the chance of us finding aliens any other ways is approaching zero.
The Fermi Paradox explores the likelihood of the existence of intelligent life existing elsewhere, as well as the frequency of that intelligent life. The crux of the argument, is as follows;
"1.The Sun is a typical star. There are billions of stars in the galaxy that are billions of years older.
2.With high probability, some of these stars will have Earth-like planets. Assuming the Earth is typical, some of these planets may develop intelligent life.
3. Some of these civilizations may develop interstellar travel, a technology Earth is investigating even now (such as the 100 Year Starship).
4.Even at the slow pace of currently envisioned interstellar travel, the galaxy can be completely colonized in a few tens of millions of years."
So Fermi asked the question. Where is everybody?
It's important to ask this question, and try to figure out the reasons, because it could have a huge effect on determining the future of life on this planet.
Before we proceed as a human race, it's important to know what we're facing. This could be a Pandora's box situation, that we cannot take back. This has happened several times in history, and bad things have happened once we opened the box, and once the demons are out, they're out.
Martin Luther made the bible available for reading to the general public, this led to all kinds of bloodshed and warring between the various segments of Christianity popped up. The atomic bomb was created and put the world on the bring of Armageddon as well as destroyed two large cities in Japan. Once the box is open, it's open. There is no going back. Weapons that destroy whole cities aren't going away. The internal warring of the Christian faith, the witch hunts, the suicidal cults all have happened or will continue to happen. It is here, because Martin Luther opened that box, because the Manhatten project opened that box and now I assert my opponent is proposing to open up Pandora's box again. He wants to contact aliens, and other than scientific or the natural human curious instinct, I see no benefits and curiosity isn't a good reason to open up Pandora's box.
Why the paradox exists
None of the possible answers are a benefit to actually contacting alien life. Let's explore some of these possibilities.
Life is rare One possibility is that life is more rare than we think. If life is rarer than we think it will be next to impossible to intelligent life. The timing has to be perfect. It's billions of years before an intelligent life form would come into existence, but If our experience is any indicato, than we know that this intelligent life will exist for tens of thousands of years before reaching the technological advancement required to communicate with other planets, than they have to be listening, and they have to use the same technology to communicate with us, and given the fast pace of advancement, the overlap of those technologies would be rare. Given the almost certain impossibility of reaching out, the effort isn't worth it.
Wack a Mole Hypothesis an intelligent species could've evolved to a point where they can travel the Galaxy and know everyone who exists. These species would know that if a technological singularity happens on a planet, it could be a threat to the entire universe. In order to spare the universe from the masive danger of a technological singularity, as soon as a planet they discover gets close to it, they squash it out of existence. If this is the case, it is our best bet to stay quiet, so they don't know how close we are to achieving the singularity.
Anyway that's it for now.
Gareth_BM forfeited this round.
Gareth_BM forfeited this round.
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