The Instigator
AlexanderOc
Pro (for)
Winning
8 Points
The Contender
guylaquit
Con (against)
Losing
0 Points

It is Impossible For A Human To Predict A Future Event With 100% Reliability

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Post Voting Period
The voting period for this debate has ended.
after 2 votes the winner is...
AlexanderOc
Voting Style: Open Point System: 7 Point
Started: 7/19/2014 Category: Philosophy
Updated: 3 years ago Status: Post Voting Period
Viewed: 863 times Debate No: 59204
Debate Rounds (4)
Comments (19)
Votes (2)

 

AlexanderOc

Pro

First round acceptance.

Full BoP rests on me to support the resolution.

No new arguments in 4th round. Rebuttals are fine.

Any definitions should be taken from

http://dictionary.reference.com...

8000 characters and 72 hours to post arguments.

Good luck to Con.
guylaquit

Con

Though I obviously have the short end of the stick in proof and have the obvious more difficult side to defend, I look forward to debating this with you.
Debate Round No. 1
AlexanderOc

Pro

I. Construct

It's common knowledge we live in a universe of cause and effect. Every cause creates an effect which then becomes the cause for another effect. So, in order to know an effect, all one must do is know the cause.
Unfortunately, we also live in a world of many causes. Knowing a few may give an estimation for an effect, however in order to insure that are no doubts, every cause must be known before the exact effect can be known for certain.

My claim is that while it is possible to have a very reliable prediction of an effect (most causes are known), it is impossible to know all causes and therefore know the only effect.
This is because of a paradox caused by trying to find all causes of an effect. Here is my argument.

We are going to assume a human is going to try and predict a future event with 100% certainty that said future event will occur. To do this, he must know all possible causes to this future event/effect.
Let's say this man studies very intently and learns every possible cause in the universe that will influence the event he is trying to predict. Even though he now knows all the possible causes, there is still one he hasn't accounted for, his knowledge of all possible causes. Since him knowing all causes for the event could affect the outcome of the event, he decides to account for it.

However, he suddenly runs across the exact same problem, he now holds new knowledge of his knowledge of all possible causes. So that knowledge must be accounted for to insure that the effect is completely certain. So he accounts for this knowledge of knowledge. But wait, you see where this is going?

The man can never know every cause for the future event because his knowledge of all known causes is in itself a cause, that when accounted for suddenly becomes unaccounted for again!

That is the paradox.

II. Closing remarks

That will be my main contention. I think it is sturdy enough on its own to support my point.

I'll pass it on to Con for his cross-examination..
guylaquit

Con

guylaquit forfeited this round.
Debate Round No. 2
AlexanderOc

Pro

DDO is dying.
guylaquit

Con

guylaquit forfeited this round.
Debate Round No. 3
AlexanderOc

Pro

Please, If you have no intention of putting forth effort into a debate, don't waste the instigator's time by accepting it.
guylaquit

Con

guylaquit forfeited this round.
Debate Round No. 4
19 comments have been posted on this debate. Showing 1 through 10 records.
Posted by AlexanderOc 3 years ago
AlexanderOc
Yeah, but when? There is no pointt in time of determination. I could simply sit in limbo between the two decsions for all of eternity I could also decide right away. You can't predict either way.
Posted by KhalifV 3 years ago
KhalifV
Yea, but you will do one or the other.
Posted by AlexanderOc 3 years ago
AlexanderOc
@KhalifV

'Will' implies it will happen in the future. Since the future is a non-accesible point in time, then that means that I may or may never Affirm the resolution, it cannot be certain if I ever will or will not. Until I choose to or not to, then the actual outcome cannot be sure to ever happen or not happen.
Posted by KhalifV 3 years ago
KhalifV
Alexander will either affirm the resolution or not affirm the resolution. True by law of excluded middle, law of non-contradiction, and law of identity.
Posted by AlexanderOc 3 years ago
AlexanderOc
If I win, you were right. That doesn't mean that your prediction was 100% garunteed.

Simply because you ended up being right doesn't mean that it was impossible for you to be wrong or vice versa.
Posted by EndarkenedRationalist 3 years ago
EndarkenedRationalist
How would that be refuted? It's a paradox. If they vote for you, I was 100% right. If they vote for me, I was wrong and you met the BoP.
Posted by 9spaceking 3 years ago
9spaceking
or, you could say "the correct answer to the question of '1+1' on the elementary school test which involves no complex math or different bases, will be 2"
Posted by AlexanderOc 3 years ago
AlexanderOc
Nice one there WillRiley.

But, how did you know that you wouldn't be sot immediatley before posting that comment?
Posted by WillRiley 3 years ago
WillRiley
See I just did it
Posted by WillRiley 3 years ago
WillRiley
I will post in my next comment the "See I just did it"
2 votes have been placed for this debate. Showing 1 through 2 records.
Vote Placed by 9spaceking 3 years ago
9spaceking
AlexanderOcguylaquitTied
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Total points awarded:40 
Reasons for voting decision: ff
Vote Placed by lannan13 3 years ago
lannan13
AlexanderOcguylaquitTied
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Total points awarded:40 
Reasons for voting decision: Forfeiture