The Instigator
Debatasaurus
Con (against)
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The Contender
kardashiansarethebest
Pro (for)
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It is likely that the number of sovereign states will increase significantly in the next 50 years

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Voting Style: Open Point System: 7 Point
Started: 6/24/2015 Category: Politics
Updated: 1 year ago Status: Post Voting Period
Viewed: 384 times Debate No: 76892
Debate Rounds (5)
Comments (1)
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Debatasaurus

Con

This debate will have 5 rounds that should go on the lines of this:

1st: Opening statement, how you will structure the debate, initial thoughts and arguments.
2nd AND 3rd: More strong arguments, concrete, but no discussion regarding the opponent"s arguments.
4th: First comments about opponent"s arguments, arguments directed against opponent, more arguments for your opinion
5th: More of what is in 4th round, plus concluding discussion and statement.

I am not too strict about sources; I accept the use of Wikipedia as a source. In fact, I won"t mind if no source is given, so long as the statistics used or statements made are valid and not made up. If they are flatly contradicted by a reliable source, then I will not consider them.

This is an interesting topic because it involves discussion about how the world will change in the coming decades politically, and whether it will continue the way it is going or change direction due to another factor.

I will argue that it is unlikely that the number of sovereign states will increase significantly in the next half a century. I will discuss the causes of a state forming and what are the factors that I think are preventing the number from rising significantly.
kardashiansarethebest

Pro

(If this gets rather in-depth for a Round #1, sorry!)

I disagree. Europe's nations are beginning to slowly grow apart on the interior: Scotland, for example. Wales' ideology of breaking away is slowly getting larger, but still rather small, however there's the possibility the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland could be, in fifty years, be the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Dare I say, United Kingdom of England and Northern Ireland? Or United Kingdom of England and Wales? Or perhaps the union may fall apart? Northern Ireland could become part of Ireland, unifying the island.

The Basque & Catalonia Region's in Spain have large support for breaking away, meaning that Spain could have some new neighbours in the years to come.

And that's just Europe. Countries such as South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh. For a detailed list see https://en.wikipedia.org...

Sorry for the very large first-round post :)
Debate Round No. 1
Debatasaurus

Con

The number of sovereign states has increased dramatically over the last century. This, I believe, is down to three events: WWI (and, on a smaller scale, WWII), where European countries were made on the spot; the end of colonialism (especially in Africa); and finally, the collapse of the Soviet Union. All of these can trace their origins to new circumstances brought about by war, economic troubles, or change in ideas. Today, we are living in a world that is becoming ever close, politically and economically. Borders are seen in a less positive light, as they inhibit trade. Many countries are joining economic blocs, like NAFTA and the EU. So, isolationism, which can contribute to independence movements, is now a much weaker factor. Globalisation is a force that played no part in the three major events listed above, but it is very present today. Nationalism, which was prevalent in the beginning half of the 20th century, is now seen in a far less positive light. Instead, the world, due to cultural globalisation, is slowly creating a monoculture. All this means that there is both a less economic and possibly cultural drive for independence.

Another factor is quite important in this debate: federalism and devolution. There has been a marked rise of this in the last 50 years, with the 8 largest nations by land area having either federal models of government or devolved political bodies. If a nation that isn"t a sovereign state wants independence for economic reasons, i.e. to be more in control of their finances and to deal with the population"s needs better, then becoming an autonomous region, getting a devolved parliament, or making the country federal does the job quite the same, if not better due to the ease of trade and being part of a larger country with a louder voice in the world.

In the next round, I will show how this relates to a potential independent state and I will later discuss Europe more in depth, as, in my opinion, this is the continent where the birth of new countries is more likely in the next 50 years.
kardashiansarethebest

Pro

kardashiansarethebest forfeited this round.
Debate Round No. 2
Debatasaurus

Con

There are a number of reasons why a region might want to become an independent country. Firstly, a large country that is failing will probably experience a time where many of its smaller regions want independence; the Soviet Union in 1991 illustrates this. Today, although there is no clear definition of a large, failing country, this is a smaller possibility. The Soviet Union was an amalgamation of different nations, and the secessionists provoked quite a lot of nationalism to achieve their goal. And look where that has led to " today, Russia and Ukraine look over an icy and very nationalistic divide. People are now more aware that nationalism is something that may be used to provide short-term benefits, but ultimately comes back to haunt the nations involved. So secessionists are likely to be more careful with their method of achieving independence. So, if nationalism is a less effective tool for achieving independence, what"s the next big fish in the pond of secessionism? The economy.

The Soviet Union was failing economically. Many of its nations were led to believe that they will be more prosperous alone, having full fiscal and political autonomy. However, I believe we are living in an age where people think that the bigger the better. The EU exemplifies this: politicians keep going on about how being part of a big market (which is, in reality, stifling our businesses) is of benefit. Many countries are in the process of forging trade agreements and common markets, all because they believe that a larger economy means a larger pool of resources and opportunity. It is not only this that will silence the potential economic benefits of independence over the next few years, but also another important thing: international politics. Today, it is the large nations that dominate the international stage, and rightly so. So while the SNP may be going on about "making Scotland"s voice heard", they are surely referring to in British politics, not international. This may explain why they are so supportive of the EU; without the EU, they really would have no voice on the international stage.

And finally, it is federalism that nails the lid on the coffin of secessionism. It is possible to see the benefits of partial fiscal autonomy in being able to better allocate resources and taxation as is needed in a smaller area. However, this sort of thing doesn"t require any nationalism; take France"s "departments" for example: randomly drawn from a national perspective, yet effective economically. Many places in Europe that do have their own culture, such as Basque, South Tirol and Karelia, are not independent countries but are autonomous.

Based on the above, I do not think we will see the number of sovereign nations in the world increase significantly over the next five decades, based on the current world temperament. In the next round, I will directly address the opposite arguments given by @kardashiansarethebest, and we will conclude the debate in round 5.

And, concerning my opponent's forfeiture of round 2, I don't mind if he/she will like to include their argument for round 2 with that of round 3 or in the comments.
kardashiansarethebest

Pro

kardashiansarethebest forfeited this round.
Debate Round No. 3
Debatasaurus

Con

Debatasaurus forfeited this round.
kardashiansarethebest

Pro

kardashiansarethebest forfeited this round.
Debate Round No. 4
Debatasaurus

Con

Debatasaurus forfeited this round.
kardashiansarethebest

Pro

kardashiansarethebest forfeited this round.
Debate Round No. 5
1 comment has been posted on this debate.
Posted by Debatasaurus 1 year ago
Debatasaurus
No problem @kardashiansarethebest

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