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The Contender
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Losing
0 Points

"It is no more likely that the tenth marble will be blue than it is that it will be red."

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 Voting Style: Open Point System: 7 Point Started: 2/5/2010 Category: Science Updated: 8 years ago Status: Voting Period Viewed: 7,151 times Debate No: 11106
Debate Rounds (4)

83 comments have been posted on this debate. Showing 1 through 10 records.
Posted by Sorrow 7 years ago
gamblers fallacy?
Posted by Vi_Veri 8 years ago
Didn't really think about the points, mongoose. I just gave Mongeese everything because of my two forfeits.
Posted by mongoose 8 years ago
I find it strange that Vi claimed to have agreed with CON before the debate.
Posted by RoyLatham 8 years ago
The bag of marbles contains a distribution of colors which is initially unknown. Statistics characterizes an unknown population based upon sampling it. The population is composed of marbles that are either blue or not-blue. The sample produces 9 blue marbles and none that are non-blue. Suppose for a moment that the bag had a very large number of marbles. If there were equal numbers of blue and non-blue, the chances of drawing 9 blue ones in a row is (0.5)^9 = one chance in 512. Hence it is much more likely that large population of marbles is mostly blue rather than half blue and half non-blue.

It doesn't change the analysis very much when the bag has only ten marbles. We are characterizing the process used for filling the bag using the sample. The first nine were drawn at random, so they are a basis for statistically characterizing the population in the bag. Whatever process was used to fill the bag, it was very likely generating more blue marbles than non-blue ones for the bag. Therefore the resolution is false. It is true that the color of the tenth marble is uncertain, but the prior sample makes it more likely blue than non-blue.

Someone one commented that in physics the concepts are easy but the calculations are difficult, whereas in statistics the concepts are difficult but the calculation are easy.
Posted by mattrodstrom 8 years ago
Given: Phys Reality=reality (which I, for reasons not spoken about, do assume); yes.

But how do we come to that understanding of math. How do we come to know it??

Through discriminating things.

Now our understanding of Math is dependent upon our nature, and our understanding of reality is as well.

So claiming to understand the nature of reality presupposes that you understand your own nature, for which you need a framework (of greater reality) to understand it in.

Thus you begin talking about the Brain (our physical nature), But that rests upon a greater framework.

I find this to be circular. Reality= this; b/c our nature= that, which is dependent upon Reality=this
Posted by Puck 8 years ago
Maths is a language of reality. Not being able to count 2+2 =/= there being no 4 rocks on a beach somewhere.
Posted by mattrodstrom 8 years ago
I think math comes from our idea of number, which comes from our being able to discriminate between things; understanding them as separate.

There's "this" and then "that". That makes 2 then there's "that too" which is three.

Math is just taking this and adding to it/understanding it better.
Posted by Puck 8 years ago
"or maybe not necessarily derived from 3d, more from discriminating experience generally. (naming of "this" and "that")"

What?

"But I haven't ever run seen anything that would constitute "proof" of 3 dimensions. "

I gave you a start. You 'seeing' it isn't a prerequisite for it.

"If your claiming there is it'd be nice if you could give One example and sketch out how."

"I was talking more of why we think the three are what they appear to be, and will continue to be so."

Because dimensions don't disappear unless reality does. They are part of the fabric of reality. Sure mathematics can give us abstract extra dimensions, but they exist as equations. :)
Posted by mattrodstrom 8 years ago