ODT: Global Warming Has an Anthropogenic Cause
Debate Rounds (4)
Global warming has an anthropogenic cause.
We are NOT debating whether it exists, but rather if it has an anthropogenic cause to its existance.
Global Warming: "Global warming is the rise in the average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans since the late 19th century, and its projected continuation."
Anthropogenic: "Caused or produced by humans."
Cause: "A person or thing that acts, happens, or exists in such a way that some specific thing happens as a result; the producer of an effect."
1. The first round is for acceptance.
2. A forfeit or concession is not allowed.
3. No semantics.
4. Debate resolution, definitions, rules, and structure can not be changed in the middle of the debate.
5. In the case of the breaking of any of these rules, all seven points in voting should be given to the other person.
Round 1: Acceptance
Round 2: Presenting all arguments (no rebuttals by pro)
Round 3: Refutation of opponent's arguments (no new arguments)
Round 4: Defending you original arguments and conclusion (no new arguments)
Good luck to my opponent.
I hope this will be a fun debate.
If I can add on to the rules...
1. No posting any form of an argument in the comment section.
2. No use of videos.
3. In the case of the breaking of any of these rules, all seven points in voting should be given to the other person.
The Debate Begins!
I would like to thank my opponent for accepting this debate. I agree with his extended rules he introduced in his argument.
I. The Universe and Global Warming
The current state of the Galaxy and our Sun is affecting our temperatures.
I.i. The Rest of the Solar System
The Sun clearly is in a warmer phase, because all of the other planets have increasing temperatures as well.
"In 2005 data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions revealed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars's south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row.
Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of space research at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun."
"'Global warming on Neptune's moon Triton as well as Jupiter and Pluto, and now Mars has some [scientists] scratching their heads over what could possibly be in common with the warming of all these planets … Could there be something in common with all the planets in our solar system that might cause them all to warm at the same time?'"
Two things can be drawn from this. One, that if other planets are warming, that it is only natural for the Earth to be warming as well. And second, that even if all these planets did have natural causes, then that is a sign of Earth's natural climatic change, instead of man-made.
I.ii. The Position of the Milky Way Galaxy
Every approximately 135 million years, Earth enters a more populated area of the Milky Way, and as a result, more cosmic rays hit the Earth, which causes cooling. Currently, we are in a less populated area of the Milky Way, which means that less of these cosmic rays will be hitting the Earth, which means less cloud formation, and of course, warming.
 for the source on this hypothesis. The sun can also cause this through evaporation.
II. Earthly Causes
There are many internal causes of Global Warming as well.
II.i. Ocean Current Anomalies
Ocean temperature anomalies seem to be rising-along with the temperature.
"...one can model past temperatures as a linear trend (that started well before CO2 was added in any substantial quantity) and periodic bumps... ...temperatures over the last 100+ years look a lot like a linear trend plus ocean cycle-driven bumps"
What is causing all the bumps?:
As shown in the graph, the PDO, or ocean currents, temperature has affected the average Earth's temperature.
II.ii. Clouds: A Continuation of Point I.ii.
I mentioned about the position of the Milky Way Galaxy and the Sun in regards to these "cosmic rays". Here is a more in depth look at the effects of position.
"The implications, if true, had potentially enormous implications for the debate about natural causes of warming. When the sun is very active, it can be thought of as pushing away cosmic rays from the Earth, reducing their incidence. When the sun is less active, we see more cosmic rays. This is fairly well understood. But if Svensmark was correct, it would mean that periods of high solar output should coincide with reduced cloud formation (due to reduced cosmic race incidence), which in turn would have a
warming effect on the Earth, since less sunlight would be reflected back into space before hitting the Earth.
Here was a theory, then, that would increase the theoretical impact on climate of an active sun, and better explain why solar irradiance changes might be underestimating the effect of solar output changes on climate and temperatures."
"Since he first suggested his hypothesis over a decade and a half ago, Svensmark and other researchers have slowly been putting together research to test it." The results were: "Scientists found that when shielding was removed and natural cosmic rays allowed to hit the chamber, cloud seeding increased dramatically, and it increased substantially again when additional artificial cosmic rays were added. Svensmark appears to have gotten it right." Proof here is in the next points.
III. The 1500-Year Cycle
This has to do with a cycle of the climate that can explain the warming.
"Through at least the last million years, a moderate 1500-year warm-cold cycle has been superimposed over the longer, stronger Ice Ages and warm interglacials."
Here is a graph related to this:
There are two things we can conclude from this graph. First, that up-and-down cycles are normal for the long-term climate. This century's global warming is nothing new. The second thing we can conclude, is that today's global warming is not as bad as the Medieval Warm Period's peak yet, and the Medieval Warm Period was less than the Holocene Maximum Period.
"Even more important, the earth is not "the warmest it has ever been." In fact, the earth was much warmer during the Medieval Warm Period when human agriculture flourished!"
"The scientists found evidence that on average, every 1,470 years, plus or minus 500 years, cold, ice-bearing waters, which today circulate around southern Greenland, pushed as far south as Great Britain."
There seems to be a full cycle of up-down-up temperatures of the climate every 1470 years. And this goes as far back as at least 1 million years ago. Currently, we are in an upswing of temperatures, just coming off of the Little Ice Age, the peak to be in a few hundred years, making the peak-to-peak difference between today's global warming and the Medieval Warm Period a little less than 1500 years. So today's Global Warming is a natural, cyclical occurance.
IV. The Sun: The Proof of Theories I.ii and II.ii
The sun's cycles have a lot to do with temperatures also.
"In this chamber, 63 CERN scientists from 17 European and American institutes have done what global warming doomsayers said could never be done — demonstrate that cosmic rays promote the formation of molecules that in Earth’s atmosphere can grow and seed clouds, the cloudier and thus cooler it will be. Because the sun’s magnetic field controls how many cosmic rays reach Earth’s atmosphere (the stronger the sun’s magnetic field, the more it shields Earth from incoming cosmic rays from space), the sun determines the temperature on Earth."
"Svensmark matched the data on cosmic rays from the neutron monitor in Climax, Colorado, with the satellite measurements of solar irradiance from 1970 to 1990. Over the period between 1975 and 1989, he found cosmic rays decreased by 1.2 percent annually, amplifying the sun's change in irradiance about four-fold"
So, as the sun's activity increases, so does the temperature.
This below graph shows the correlation:
Increased sunspot activity means increased sun activity. Sunspots are more numerous in higher temperature periods. Look at the higher spikes; they correspond with a higher average global temperature (sunspots in red/blue, average temperature in black.
And as a final side note, I would like to present this graph that helps disprove the anthropogenic cause theory, regarding again, ocean temperature anomalies:
So "nature" created the same temperature spike as "humans". Hmmm.
: MacRae, Paul: "Alarm: Global Warming-- Facts versus Fears."
: Singer, S. Fred, and Dennis T. Avery: "Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years."
dude I really really hat e being a dck about this, but I think Ihave to forfeit this round.
I am not forfeiting the deabte though.
You can get the conduct point for the debate :P?
I hope you can understand this.
Again Really sorry.
I have to leave for family reasons (My grandfather is in the hospital in Korea)
"While I'm sympathetic to Nerdy we can't make exceptions to the rules for having good excuses.. whats to stop someone who procrastinated from just making up a really good excuse?"P
So unfortunately, you have lost the debate. I do sincerly apologize.
Well then GG
Even though you have to be eliminated from the tournament, I will ask voters to vote tie.
Please vote tie.
nerdykiller forfeited this round.
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