The United Kingdom Should Leave the European Union
This debate will be over if the United Kingdom should leave the European Union.
As the Con, I shall argue that the United Kingdom should remain in the European Union and shall state my arguments in the next round.
The Pro will argue that the UK should leave the European Union and shall state their arguments in the next round.
The format shall be as follows
Round 1: Acceptance, no arguments
Round 2: Opening Arguments, No Rebuttals
Round 3: Rebuttals and Further Arguments
Round 4: Rebuttals (NO NEW ARGUMENTS!)
Round 5: Final Rebuttals and Conclusion
I am opposed to Brexit for the following reasons
1) It would be bad for the British economy
It is estimated that 3.3 million jobs are tied directly or indirectly to trade with the European Union. While not all of these jobs are dependent on EU membership, if the UK were to leave the EU, approximately 1 Million Jobs would be lost according to the CBI. Industries where these jobs losses would be felt the greatest include the automotive industry and the financial services industry, both of which rely on trade with the EU. It is also estimated that 790,000 jobs. Leaving the EU would mean that these job gains would simply not be seen.
2) It would endanger workers protections
Many Workers rights protections exist at the European level. These protections include limits on weekly hours, paid maternity leave, equal pay for women workers, guaranteed breaks at work, anti-discrimination protections in hiring, health and safety protections and minimum amounts of annual paid holiday. If the UK were to leave the EU these protections would be lost, as they do not exist in British law. Many advocates for Brexit would like to see these workers rights protections abolished and While these protections could hypothetically be added after Brexit, this seems highly unlikely. Prime Minister David Cameron has already attempted to allow the UK to "opt out" or workers rights protections and if the UK were to vote to leave, there is no reason to believe that Cameron's government would implement these protections under British law. Many other advocates for Brexit also advocate for ending these worker protections and view leaving the EU as the most effective way of bringing about their goal.
3) In order to change Europe, Britain must stay in Europe
It cannot be denied that the European Union has a great number of problems, however, leaving the EU is not a solution, and it would in all likelihood cause the EU to completely disintegrate. In order to solve the problems within the EU, Britain must remain in the EU. You cannot solve the problems from the outside. Britain is a powerful player within the EU, and thus would great influence in making the changes needed to solve the EU's problems. Britain can either leave the EU, dragging the rest of the continent down with it, or it can stay in and help fix the cracks in the EU.
I shall address the issues of the NHS, TTIP, and Human Rights in the next round.
1. The British economy would "feel" the negative effects of leaving the EU the same way an overworked prostitute in Liverpool "feels" her clientele.
Maybe for show they could fake it, just to make the EU feel better, but the data seems to suggest the UK would be left boredly wondering if it had pulled out yet.
Prior to the crisis of '08, the UK witnesses the annual creation of 4 million new jobs / the loss of 3.7 million jobs per year.(1) These numbers absolutely dwarf those of the United States per capita, (2) and prove the UK to possess a wholly more dynamic and adaptive economy (to be expected, frankly, of a country that tossed away the prolific business of chimney sweeping with the indifference of a mall goth spitting out gum). This information's relevancy, however, is entirely contingent on the idea that one million jobs would be lost should the UK sever ties to the EU. The great majority of the aforementioned jobs are in trade, this continuance of which is not contingent on the UK's place in the EU. Even if trade is completely severed with the EU, many of these jobs would simply migrate to import substitution in lieu of substantial imports, as the UK developed its own ISI. But that won't even happen, because the "most favoured nation" clause in the WTO would prevent the UK from incurring punitive tariffs from the other nations of the EU. (3) Should the EU somehow do an old school reach-around and bypass the WTO (highly unlikely), the 8.5 billion pounds the UK is currently contributing surplus to the EU (4) could most definitely be used to create new jobs. Should ALL OF THIS fail, then yeah, strap in, run to the Scottish Highlands, and saw the barrels of all your antique mantel-bound British game shotguns, because it's time for an old-timey British economic apocalypse, complete with rabid Cockney orphans nibbling away at your pristinely high-socked English shins.
(I do acknowledge, however, that a number of my references come hand of the IEA, historically noted neoliberal lapdogs)
2. Workers would be less endangered than here implied, and even then, the situation could not possibly be seen to remain.
I agree that I am worried about worker's rights in a post-EU Britain under David Cameron. But in wake of the Panama Papers? That sucker is dust. The vaporous scent of a no confidence motion is stronger than the smell of sh*t and fish in the streets of Manchester. All that said, reports of the effect of leaving the EU on British workers are somewhat overstated. The Equal Pay Act, for one, was implemented in 1970, prior to the UK's admission into the EU. To say nothing of that, even if Cameron isn't shooed out of office, there is absolutely no conceivable scenario in which the UK doesn't reimplement its own rules regarding minimum wage, paid leave, etc., even under a Conservative government, otherwise Labour's oppositional power would just completely reinvigorate and explode all over the Conservative party like it's Guy Fawkes Night in 1980's Northern Ireland.
3. In order the change Europe, the EU must disintegrate.
What right does the UK have to change Europe? What right, for that matter, does any nation in the EU have to change Europe? Leave it to the participant countries to determine their own futures, rather than a national oligarchy to hold the reigns of less developed nations (particularly the EEA).
Apologies for all the saucy language, obviously not trying to actually belittle your arguments, etc.
Before I proceed with my responses and arguments, I must remind the Pro of the format of this debate.
The format shall be as follows
The con has failed to provide an original argument, instead choosing to rebut my arguments in the second round.
The Pro claims that 1 Million jobs would not be lost if Britain were to Leave the EU, however, the source he uses to support this claim does not actually dispute this notion, instead, it states that 3-4 Million jobs are not dependent on EU membership, which I have not contended. The study did not ever challenge the fact that jobs will be lost if the UK were to leave the EU. According to the Centre for Economics and Business Research, nearly 1 million jobs would be lost as a result of a British exit from the EU. And while the 8.5 Billion pounds could be used to create new jobs if the UK were to leave the EU, it is far more likely that George Osborne will want to cut taxes instead of investing it in job creation and public services. Far more jobs will be created thanks to further investment as the single market develops further, to again cite the CEBR study cited in round 2.
2. Workers Rights
While the Pro seems to believe that David Cameron is on the verge of a vote of no confidence, however, there is simply no indication that there will be a motion of no confidence any time soon, either by Jeremy Corbyn or any members of the Conservative Party. While Cameron may be destabilized by the Panama papers, there is simply no indication that Jeremy Corbyn will call for a vote of no confidence, especially in the wake of the EU referendum and elections in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and London. And if David Cameron were to step down, following the EU referendum, as many have suggested he may, the most likely successor for him as leader of the Conservative Party is Boris Johnson, a one nation tory, who’s tenure as Mayor of London was marred by his staunch opposition to Unions and workers rights, among other things. And current polls suggest that the Tories would win the next General election, fairly consistently, thus, any chances of Labour or the SNP or the Greens being able to pass workers rights laws would be unlikely.
It must also be remembered that many leave campaigners are against increases in the minimum wage and increased worker protections, indicating that one of their goals in leaving the EU is to get rid of worker protections.
3. Reforming the EU
The Pro has shown he does not understand the argument that I have made. The fact is that right now there are problems with the European Union, mostly stemming from the lack of democracy in the EU. However in order to make the EU more democratic, the UK must remain in the EU. If the UK leaves the EU, the EU as a whole will be on the edge of disintegration, and there will be no hope for change for anyone.
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership is a massive free trade deal currently being negotiated between the US and the EU. While it can be argued that by withdrawing from the EU, Britain can be saved from TTIP, the is actually rather unlikely. Under the current plan for Brexit, if Britain votes to leave, Britain would still remain part of the European Single Market and would still be privy to negotiations on TTIP. In order for TTIP to go into effect for EU member nations, it must be ratified by all 28 EU member nations. Right now Greece, Sweden, Portugal and the Netherlands have pledged to veto the agreement. If Britain were to stay in the EU, it would effectively be nullified. Nations that are members of the EU’s single market would be permitted to sign on to the Agreement even if it fails in the EU itself. In the case of Brexit, the Tories would snap at the opportunity to sign onto TTIP, and the odds of it being defeated in parliament are low.
5. National Health Service
The NHS is arguably the best health care system in the world, according to the Commonwealth Fund. However while Brexit campaigners claim that leaving the EU would mean more money for the NHS and less strain from migrants, the fact is that the NHS would not be saved, but rather put at risk, by withdrawal from the EU. The EU has done much for the NHS through its environmental and public health policies that have reduced the burden of disease, and its networks that support monitoring of infectious disease or the management of rare diseases. Leaving the EU would also put the NHS at greater risk for Privatization from the Conservatives, especially given the impacts of TTIP.
I already went on to refute this, as did my source - the statistic here implied is misleading. 1 million jobs wouldn"t be "lost", they"d just end up converted to import substitution. Of course, the CBI"s current President is Paul Drechsler, who also just so happens to be the Chairman of Bibby Line, a shipping company set to lose some business should the UK leave the EU, and who would seek to gain from a diminishing UK crude oil market outside of the EU, as they have the exclusive rights to deliver decommissioning pipelines in the North Sea. (1) The article also cites JP Morgan and Citi, who of course warn against Brexit; if the UK leaves and the pound falls, they"d be set to lose huge amounts of money considering they have banks throughout Europe. (2) And, of course, despite JP Morgan"s warnings, they seem to be up-selling the everloving sh*t out of British stock right now, claiming that, despite all their naysaying to the press, "now is the time to buy UK stocks". (3)
And even in the case that the government has to use their new surplus cash to create new jobs - remember: this is worst case scenario if British import substitution doesn"t occur automatically (which it likely will) - the notion that a conservative government would allow another 1 million citizens to sit unproductively on the dole, most of whom would become fervent Labour supporters in the face of this inaction, (as I"ll get deeper into in my next point) is absurd.
2. Worker"s Rights
The Conservatives certainly won"t increase the minimum wage or extend worker"s protections, but they won"t be able to leave the EU and not establish their own analogous laws in lieu of the EU ones. To say they wouldn"t is outrageous - it would be political suicide. There"s that old conservative axiom that states that entitlements parcelled out aren"t easily redacted: should the UK suddenly dial so severely back on worker"s rights, ensuing a sort of dystopic Worker"s Dark Age, there could - at the very least - be no foreseeable Conservative government the next election year, particularly when those reliant on the minimum wage are expected to double by 2020. (4) (5) It would be a complete public relations disaster, essentially do Labour"s job for them, and possibly incur them the wrath of the ILO.
The assertion that some leave campaigners oppose increases in minimum wage and worker"s protections, therefore leave wants to "get rid of worker"s rights" is sensationalist, and the conclusion does not follow from the premise.
3. Reforming the EU
The EU is broken, and that breakage is in its DNA. It requires more than reform, it requires disintegration. The EU"s legislative power needs to be reduced and checked, and the Eurozone doesn"t work and needs to be phazed out. (6) Apocalyptic naysayers on the issue tend to point towards a new balkanization, death of trade, unprecedented inflation, and complete economic destabilization, but almost all of this presupposes that a post-EU Europe would revert to a pre-modern ultranationalist hellscape. It isn"t as if the dissolution of the EU would necessarily preclude any form of continental assembly, or agreements such as East Asia"s APT, or North America"s NAFTA, or NAACE,or NAALC, or NATO which most of them are already in, etc.
The European Union is imperialism with a human face (https://www.youtube.com...), a force of privileged nations holding the leashes of those less endowed through veiled coercion. (7) The existence of the EU alone is what is fuelling the rise of the radical right in Europe, via a European crisis of identity. (8) The UK cannot hope to amend democracy in the EU when the EU"s existence is contributing to the breakdown of democracy within the nations of Europe themselves.
Forgive me - gotta run to a doctor"s appointment I forgot about - will reply to points 4 and 5 in the comments later, hopefully, as I"m running out of time. xoxo bangers and mash big ben etc.
The Pro continues to claim that he has refuted the argument, however, his source does not contradict my claim. He says that 3-4 Million jobs would not be lost as many of these jobs would simply be replaced by Trade substitution. However, this study states that these jobs are simply not dependent on EU membership, and it does not contradict the CBI study which states that close to 1 million jobs would be lost as a result. He further cites the fact that the President of the CBI happens to be the chairman of a shipping company, however this does not undermine my argument and in fact, this should only further support my argument, as if the shipping company loses money, it will be forced to lay people off, thus providing a specific example as to where these job losses would be.
The pro additionally highlights the fact that JP Morgan is cited in the article, as warning against Brexit, while at the same time encouraging the purchasing of British stocks. This point is simply irrelevant to this debate, as it is very clear from the MarketWatch Article, that JP Morgan is encouraging this for the very simple fact that British stocks are low in the status quo, and JP Morgan believes that Britain will ultimately vote to stay in the EU and this will result in an increase in stock prices.
2. Workers Rights
To quote the Pro's previous response on this issue, "The Conservatives certainly won"t increase the minimum wage or extend worker's protections." This is the plain and simple fact of the matter. There is no reason that the conservatives would expand workers rights, especially given the fact that David Cameron has attempted to allow the UK to opt out of Workers rights protections. The Conservative Party would not want to reimplement the workers rights protections that they are already attempting to abolish. And it is not sensationalist to claim that because Leave Campaigners are against workers rights they want to get rid of workers protections, it is a logical conclusion.
3. Reforming the EU
The problems of the EU stem from the lack of democracy in Brussels that I have discussed in previous rounds. The fact that it currently allows for greater exploitation of poorer nations is a serious problem, however, it will not be solved by retreating into the cocoon of isolationism. It will only be solved by reigniting the flame of democracy in Brussels, and by giving people more say in the management of the European Union.
While it is true that right now the EU is a force against democracy, the beast does not necessarily need to be slain, especially when it can still be tamed. However, Britain cannot hope to make any impact on this from outside the EU.
On all my other points, I extend my arguments.
DoctorFight forfeited this round.
As the con forfeited the last round, I shall simply extend all of my responses from the previous round and proceed to my conclusion
Withdrawal from the European Union would be disastrous for Britain and British people. Brexit would cost the British economy nearly a million jobs and leave even more British people out of work, and it would halt the creation of nearly 790,000 new jobs in Britain over the next ten years. These losses would be very harmful to British businesses and the British workers. And as Workers are the backbone of the economy, if workers are left on the streets without a job, the economy will grind to a halt.
It would be even worse for workers given that withdrawal from the EU would mean an end to important worker protections like limits on weekly hours, paid maternity leave, equal pay for women workers, guaranteed breaks at work, anti-discrimination protections in hiring, health and safety protections and minimum amounts of annual paid holiday. These hard-won protections would all be lost if the UK were to leave the EU, and it is highly unlikely that the Conservative Party would re-establish these rights into British law.
Furthermore, with all of the problems that are seen in Europe today, it is vital that reforms are made to make the EU more transparent and democratic. In order to help bring about these changes, however, the UK must remain in the EU, so that it will have the ability to impact the European Union and make the vital changes it so desperately needs.
Because of this, I can see no reason as to why the United Kingdom Should leave the European Union.
DoctorFight forfeited this round.