The sun is the main cause of global warming

My opponent argued my side, I said in round one that the sun is not the main cause of warming, and that my opponent (you) argue that the sun is the main part of global warming. My opponent argues my side, so I guess we can both evils advocate :)

"I argue the sun is not the main reason for current climate change, my opponent [you] argues the sun is the main reason for current climate change." - round one.

C1: Earth is heating -- Sun is cooling

The tempertures in the last 35 years have been skyrocketing. Over the last 30 years, the sun has been on a downward trend. So the sun and tempetures are actually going opposite directions. This means it is highly unlikley the sun can be causing any warming (or aleast any of the warming we have seen in the past 30 years). Arguing the sun causes warming I argue is a myth. This is cherry picking the data, as this is based on past corelations then argued it makes the same correlation today. But this ignores the fact the two trends have opposite. [1] This is shown by this graph, accessed from skeptical science.com:


http://www.skepticalscience.com...

Wanna know whats hard from this? Based on the graph (1940-60) we a downturn beginning, once the decrease begins the increase in temperture does as well. We can see it si possible the warming before 1940 was natural, but then we see from 1940 on it is unlikley the sun can have an impact, so based on the sun theory we should see flatline or cooling, hence we must assume another factor ties into this.

Also, higher sunspot numbers are linked to higher sun radiation which causes the warming. We also see a decrease in sunspots since 2000. Skeptical science again has a graph:


http://www.skepticalscience.com...

As we can see assuming warming from 2000 on from the sun is invalid.

Another graph:



http://www.skepticalscience.com...

Different data but similar trends: sun cooling, while earth warming (see graph one).

TO end the argunemnt: "Various independent measurements of solar activity all confirm the sun has shown a slight cooling trend since 1978."[2]

C2: Unprecedented warming


http://ossfoundation.us...

As we can see, if this was a natural cycle we would have basic ups and downs, but we see a continuation of ups based on computer models. This hints other (other a in not sun) natural cycles (or humans) are influencing this.

C3: Natural factors other then the sun

C1 already proved the possiblity of the sun creating warming is impossible, so what about other natural cycles? Answer? PDO warm/cool cycles.



http://www.climate-skeptic.com...

So another warm natural factor is a more then likely factor for global warming. As the PDO warms the pacific, huge portion of the earth, we can see there is an overall averaging factor to this. The averaging shows the PDO cycle causes global warming.

C4: Human factor?

One word: graphs.

Co2 -
Currently, humans are emitting around 29 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere per year. Around 43% remains in the atmosphere - this is called the 'airborne fraction'. The rest is absorbed by vegetation and the oceans. While there are questions over how much the airborne fraction is increasing, it is clear that the total amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing dramatically. Current CO2 levels are the highest in 15 million years."[3]



Temperture:


http://en.wikipedia.org...

Correlation found.

CONCLUSION:

My opponent argued the wrong side, in round one I already showed clearly I was arguing sun had no effect. I therefore encourage my opponent to either devils advocate that the sun is the main cause [ <- hopefully this] or concede. I urge a CON vote. I have shown CO2 and the PDO are more likely factors in warming then the sun.



[1] http://www.skepticalscience.com...
[2] http://www.skepticalscience.com...
[3] http://www.skepticalscience.com...