The Instigator
imabench
Con (against)
Losing
0 Points
The Contender
1Historygenius
Pro (for)
Winning
17 Points

Who will be the next Presidential Candidate to go?

Do you like this debate?NoYes+2
Add this debate to Google Add this debate to Delicious Add this debate to FaceBook Add this debate to Digg  
Post Voting Period
The voting period for this debate has ended.
after 5 votes the winner is...
1Historygenius
Voting Style: Open Point System: 7 Point
Started: 12/11/2011 Category: Politics
Updated: 5 years ago Status: Post Voting Period
Viewed: 2,505 times Debate No: 19798
Debate Rounds (3)
Comments (20)
Votes (5)

 

imabench

Con

For a period of time the Republican primaries appeared to be adding a candidate every week, but recently though no other new candidates (like the New Jersey governor) has refused to campaign and meanwhile Herman Cain, at one point a front-runner for the Republican party, has temporarily (probably permanently) dropped out of the race completely. It appears that we are now at that stage where the vast GOP field of candidates will appear to start thinning in numbers, but my question to you is, who will be the next to drop out?

Heres how it will work. The Pro selects a candidate they think is going to be dropping out of the race very soon, I will be offering evidence of why they may hold out longer while also offering evidence of who might drop out sooner.

The Pro may choose any of the current GOP leaders below, they must argue why they will be dropping out of the race next.
Mitt Romney
Newt Gingrich
Rick Perry
Michelle Bachmann
Ron Paul
Rick Santorum

Good luck to my opponent, they may use the first round to introduce their candidate and can make arguments about why the other candidates will drop out first or can wait until round 2 to do so, it doesnt really matter...
1Historygenius

Pro

I believe the next candidate to drop out will be Michelle Bachmann. Despite competing hard in Iowa she has not done so good. The Iowa Caucus is weeks away and she has not yet proved to be a guaranteed winner while Gingrich has been proven to probably be the winner. According to the latest Iowa polls, Bachmann finished fourth or sometimes even further below in Iowa:

12/06 CNN/Time -- Gingrich 33, Romney 20, Paul 17, Perry 9
12/05 CBS/NYT -- Gingrich 31, Romney 17, Paul 16, Perry 11
12/05 WeAskAmerica -- Gingrich 30, Romney 16, Paul 14, Bachmann 13
12/05 PPP (D) -- Gingrich 27, Paul 18, Romney 16, Bachmann 13
12/04 ABC/WashPost -- Gingrich 33, Romney 18, Paul 18, Perry 11
11/30 Des Moines Reg -- Gingrich 25, Paul 18, Romney 16, Bachmann 8

Chances are that if she cannot win in Iowa, she cannot win anywhere. Iowa was the caucus that Bachmann needed for her to be victorious for the nomination, but that has not happened. She probably has a 0% of winning the nomination anyway. Bachmann is considered an unconventional, unelectable candidate by most outside her base. While Bachmann speaks passionately to her supporters, her rhetorical capabilities have not enabled her to reach beyond her base. She is gaffe-prone, and the liberal media delight in highlighting each one. Bachmann's liberal enemies view her more as a laughingstock than a serious opponent. This attitude does not inspire confidence in Bachmann's abilities among fence-sitters. Bachmann is often disparagingly referred to as a lesser version of Sarah Palin. She doesn't have as much baggage as Palin, but she doesn't have Palin's high profile either. Ever since Rick Perry has entered the race she has had no hope of winning the nomination.

http://www.elephantwatcher.com...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com...
Debate Round No. 1
imabench

Con

Sorry for taking so long...

Michelle Bachmann is a new breed of political crazy and I agree that she will probably drop out, however I have noticed that Michelle Bachman has been staying out of the news recently while other candidates have been becoming notorious on the televised debates. Bachmann is yesterday's news but that may be protecting her from any continuing backlash that could force her to drop out.

Rick Perry: Everyone is very well aware of his ability to completely break down into gibberish during debates, and in a recent debate he even forgot one of the three federal agencies he wanted to abolish, so he asked Ron Paul to help him remember. Even mroe recently than that though Rick Perry released a new add completely slamming gay marriage causing a huge backlash in his campaign. The clip is shown at the link at the bottom, but I recommend having pain killers on hand for the effects you will feel after watching it.
http://www.youtube.com...

Newt Gingrich: He has a very well known history of cheating on his first wife with another woman, divorce her while she had cancer to marry the woman he was cheating on her with, only to then cheat on her too with another woman who then he married after he divorced his second wife after she too came down with a debilitating disease. He's always had that to deal with but recently he has gone so far to suggest that the Palestinians were an "invented people"
sparking an outcry from news pundits throughout the media.

The first video shows the possible backlash he cold receive from his remarks. They are currently not enough to derail his campaign however if Gingrich receives any more bad press then it could cause him to drop out of the race.

Rick Santorum: This guy has been trailing in the polls just as long as Bachmann has, and he has his own controversial opinions towards gays, particularly his stance on re-instating dont ask dont tell and soldiers who have come out regarding their sexuality would be kicked out of the military. The second video shows what happened (And I dont know why the audience is cheering) I know it may appear a little biased towards Rick Santorum but im using it just to show how he is receiving negative press when he gets any press at all.

Mitt Romney: He hasnt been on top of the polls in forever now and is known for being a rather bland candidate in a primary where it is the most eccentric or exciting candidates who win. He has mostly stayed out of the press for any bad publicity, but recently he actually bet Rick Perry $10,000 about how serious he is about his policy regarding healthcare, and many people interpreted this as Romney showing off his wealth in one of the worst recessions in history, causing the media to buzz. The bet he made may actually bite him in his ***.... Third video shows what happened

Ron Paul: Ron Paul has been called unelectable back when he ran in 2008, four years later now he still isnt making much headway in a new election going up against new candidates. I dont have a video showing any recent blunders however his stance on abolishing social security, medicare, ending the EPA, student loans, etc. could indeed render him as (the bigot) Bill O'Reilly fiercely advocated as unelectable. When Ron Paul dropped out in the 2008 election, he at the time was ranked dead last in number of delegates who pledged support for him.
http://en.wikipedia.org...(United_States)_presidential_candidates,_2008

I concede that Michelle Bachmann is too crazy for her to win the republican primary, but I do not think she will be the next to drop out since other candidates have recently been receiving loads more of bad press than she has. (personally I think Perry or Gingrich will be the next to drop out)
1Historygenius

Pro

Newt Gingrich: While it is true that Newt will have to deal with the marriage issue chances are he may be able to bounce it back unlike Cain who had to deal with a disaster of sex allegations. Newt's marriage morals are more of old news than new news and while the liberal media will no doubt attack him, the viewers may grow tired of the liberal media attacking another candidate based on marriage values again. Also, it was only until the big Ginger White scandal that did in Cain because his sexual harassment allegations back in the NRA were not super effective as he was able to stay in first place in several Iowa and South Carolina polls, primaries that are very critical in the race for nomination. Newt would have to deal with the Palestinian "invited people" issue, he may be able to push the issue aside by speaking more on it and why he said it. With the collapse of Perry and Cain, Gingrich may be the only alternative. As the voters in early primary states begin watching the debates, they can't help but be struck by the intelligence and gravitas of Gingrich. No matter the points raised by the other candidates, Gingrich always has an answer for them. They struggle to respond to his own points. Though his opponents attempt to focus voters' attention on Gingrich's recent past as a wannabe moderate, an event occurs in the world that demands an answer. Gingrich is the first to articulate a clear, comprehensive solution. He excels at debates which can be shown on my first video I posted.

Rick Santorum: Despite having trailed in the polls, a lot can happen. You never know if he maybe able to pull an upset and win or become a front runner in the race and then he may get hope in Florida or South Carolina primaries. The fact that he is at least somewhat electable and his willingness to show passion in debates gives Santorum a chance.

Mitt Romney: He still holds second place, and first in News Hampshire where he is guaranteed to win:
12/06 CNN/Time -- Romney 35, Gingrich 26, Paul 17, Huntsman 8
11/30 NBC/Marist -- Romney 38, Gingrich 23, Paul 15, Huntsman 9
11/28 Rasmussen -- Romney 34, Gingrich 24, Paul 14, Huntsman 11
11/21 UNH/WMUR -- Romney 42, Gingrich 15, Paul 12, Huntsman 8
11/21 Polling Co. (R) -- Romney 35, Gingrich 18, Paul 10, Huntsman 9
11/20 Suffolk/7News -- Romney 41, Gingrich 14, Paul 14, Huntsman 9

The gaffe will effect him in Iowa, but once again time is key. He still has the power in New Hampshire and you never no about Florida and South Carolina. Romney still has plenty of support and force with him. He also had done well in most of the one-on-one fights against Gingrich during the debate, this might prove to give him more support later.

Ron Paul: He has actually not done so bad:

Iowa
12/11 ARG -- Gingrich 22, Paul 17, Romney 17, Perry 13
12/07 U of Iowa -- Gingrich 30, Romney 20, Paul 11, Bachmann 9
12/06 CNN/Time -- Gingrich 33, Romney 20, Paul 17, Perry 9
12/05 CBS/NYT -- Gingrich 31, Romney 17, Paul 16, Perry 11
12/05 WeAskAmerica -- Gingrich 30, Romney 16, Paul 14, Bachmann 13

He has now bumped into a tie with Romney after that debate performance.

New Hampshire:
12/06 CNN/Time -- Romney 35, Gingrich 26, Paul 17, Huntsman 8
11/30 NBC/Marist -- Romney 38, Gingrich 23, Paul 15, Huntsman 9
11/28 Rasmussen -- Romney 34, Gingrich 24, Paul 14, Huntsman 11
11/21 UNH/WMUR -- Romney 42, Gingrich 15, Paul 12, Huntsman 8
11/21 Polling Co. (R) -- Romney 35, Gingrich 18, Paul 10, Huntsman 9

Based on these polls, he is slowly on the rise in New Hampshire.

Ron Paul might stick out until the end here. If he gets more performances like at last night's debate, he may be on the rise to first place. My second video I posted shows this.

My opponent has stated that the decrease in much of the press' interest of Bachmann has helped her, but that cannot be sure. One thing has just recently entered the press. My third video I posted shows this. Furthermore, the polls show her in fourth or even less than that in Iowa polls. If she cannot win in Iowa chances are she cannot win anywhere else. It would also look bad to see her who won the Iowa caucus first, lost next in the news caucus at such a low percentage like 4th or under. She cannot really comeback and will not. All the other conservative candidates have something over her. If you want someone mostly conservative with more credentials than Bachmann, you go to Perry. If you want someone who can beat Obama, you go to Romney. If you're too disgusted by Romney's flip-flops to go to him, you go to Gingrich. Bachmann has thus been squeezed out entirely.

http://www.elephantwatcher.com...
Debate Round No. 2
imabench

Con

I concede that Mitt Romney and Gingrich will NOT drop out before Bachmann does after reading Pro's sources, however I will be arguing a little more over these three.

Rick Perry,
Ron Paul,
Rick Santorum.

In the Pro's polls I noticed a peculiar trend, All his polls showed Romney in first, Gingrich in second, Ron Paul in third, and either Huntsman, Perry, or Bachmann taking up fourth

(quick side note, I apologize for not listing Huntsman as a choice, so for the sake of fairness I will not address him to reinforce my arguments in any way)

In all of Pro's polls both Bachmann and Perry are implied to be in last place in all of his sources. But on the website he provided it showed the candidates rankings based on how likely they are to win the nomination based on %. Here is what the source states
1) Mitt Romney - 65% chance to win
2) Newt Gingrich - 32% chance to win
3) Rick Santorum - 3% chance to win

And then the list shows a tie for last pace at 0% (yes zero) for Perry and Ron Paul, and Bachmann.
http://www.elephantwatcher.com...

You know what though, Ive looked into Ron Paul's campaign style from 2008 (which he came in dead last) and his stubbornness may be the only thing that prevents him from dropping out before Bachmann does due to his always undying support of libertarians but no one else. That leaves Bachmann going head to head against Rick Perry and Rick Santorum to not finish in last...... (If I am shooting myself in the foot so be it, Ive met my share of Ron Paul supporters on this site anyway but ive never seen a thread on the DDO politics section about people saying 'Rick Perry Rules' or"Santorum will save us')

Rick Perry at his highest point was in second place in the polls, behind Romney after the rumored to be running Chris Christie declined to run, but ever since that high point Perry has been sliding in the polls with no end in sight allowing Gingrich to surge and even Santorum to not stink even though he is still listed at 3%.

I did a little research to find the most up to dat epolls and here is what I found

http://www.gallup.com...

Gingrich iis actually leading with 33%
Romney is in second at 23%
Paul is at 8% and falling
Perry is stagnant at 6%
Bachmann is at 6% and RISING
Santorum is at 3% and rising.

So in the latest Gallup polls Bachmann has already passed Santorum and looks poised to overcome Perry who is falling in numbers while Bachmann is gaining support (somehow). Rick Perry is still disliked because of his poor performance in debates and polls show him losing votes and Santorum has half the support Bachmann has and isnt going anywhere.

As for the scandals. The one video the Con provided shows Bachmann being told by an 8 year old (who has two gay mothers) that he loves them and that they dont need to get fixed. Bachmann then quickly dismisses them. Sure it was not a proud moment for her campaign but it pales in comparision to the blunders of Perry. Here are the three biggest blunders youve probably already seen.

first video shows his stuttering against Romney

second video shows him abolishing the departments of commerce, education, and then asks Ron Paul to help him remember the third one.

third video shows his ad against gay marriage which on youtube has as over 600,000 dislikes....

So to summarize, I think that Michelle Bachmann will not be the next candidate to drop out because
1) Perry is on a downwards spiral and his poll numbers appear to about to be eclipsed by Bachmann
2) The bad press Bachmann has gotten is relatively harmless compared to some of the other scandals and gaffes by other candidates
3) Santorum has the lowest poll numbers of all of these candidates
4) Ill just throw this in there, the fact that Bachmann is the only woman running might attract die hard feminists to vote for her.

For the record, if the gallup polls show different numbers than the ones I have given here I apologize but would like to show how indeed Perry is falling, Bachmann is trending, and Santorum is in last of the candidates mentioned.

I thank the Pro for accepting this debate and I thank the voters for reading it :)
1Historygenius

Pro

First off, I would like to address my opponent's link (http://www.gallup.com...). The GOP ballot updates at 1 p.m. ET. General election trial heats update periodically. In other words, it changes every day. It just so happens that it has changed with Bachmann staying how she is and Santorum and Perry going up. Yes, my opponent is right that the sometimes polls sometimes indeed show different numbers, but that does not mean that trends are happening and Bachmann has been going nowhere, but we see here that right on the first page Gallup shows that Perry and Santorum are indeed going up.

Gingrich 31% -2
Romney 22% -1
Paul 8%
Perry 7% +1
Bachmann 6%
Santorum 4% +1

So Santorum and Perry are moving up with Bachmann staying where she is.

Ron Paul:
According to my opponent: "You know what though, Ive looked into Ron Paul's campaign style from 2008 (which he came in dead last) and his stubbornness may be the only thing that prevents him from dropping out before Bachmann does due to his always undying support of libertarians but no one else."

According to Republican Primary results Ron Paul took second place in:
10
(Nevada, Montana, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, Nebraska, Oregon, Idaho, South Dakota, New Mexico, Northern Mariana Islands)

He took third place in:

17
(North Dakota, Utah, Alaska, Maine, Kansas, Washington, Virginia, Wisconsin, Vermont, Rhode Island, Ohio, Texas, Mississippi, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, North Carolina, Washington DC, Puerto Rico)
(http://en.wikipedia.org...(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008)

Furthermore, my opponent seems unaware that Ron Paul won the Illinois Straw Poll (http://www.huffingtonpost.com...).

Based on the fact that he won the straw poll and took second and third in several states, why would he want to leave anytime soon? I believe that he will not leave anytime soon and he withdrew from the 2008 race on June 12, 2008. That is pretty far in the race for nomination.

Rick Santorum:

According to polls, Santorum is on the rise:

Newt Gingrich22%
Ron Paul21%
Mitt Romney16%
Michele Bachmann11%
Rick Perry9%
Rick Santorum8% (He is here now - 12/13/2011)
Undecided7%
Jon Huntsman5%
Gary Johnson1%

Newt Gingrich30%
Mitt Romney20%
Ron Paul11%
Undecided11%
Michele Bachmann9%
Rick Perry8%
Rick Santorum5% (From here - 12/07/2011)
Jon Huntsman2%
None of the above1%

There is still time left and anything can happen, so Santorum cannot be counted out yet. We must remember that he has worked a lot in Iowa and if he does more how are we so sure he will not win? The polls show that he is still on the rise. So Santorum can still be on an impact in the primary. You have also forgotten the possibility of winning in Florida or South Carolina.

Rick Perry:

Let us not remember that Rick Perry has made a lot of money (http://www.washingtonpost.com...). He has $17 million from fundraising and he can still use it by a lot. You never know if he may use more ads on his opponents. Also, Perry has a long record as a fiscal and social conservative, and was an early supporter of the Tea Party movement. Perry can claim more executive experience than anyone in the field. A canny politician, Perry has often defied expectations by defeating his opponents when the odds were against him. Those 600,000 dislikes may just be the reactions of hardcore liberals when this appeared on their media, the conservatives may favor his commercial.

The three videos I have showed you are perfect examples of the fact that Perry still has loads of money and will continue to drill more ads. He has strongly attacked Romney on that $10,000 bet and can still throw some heavy hits.

Also, we cannot forget Bachmann's crazy eyes:
http://cdn.madamenoire.com...

Here are my 4 points against my opponent's:

1) According to Gallup his polls are going slightly up again. Also he has plenty of money and Gallup has also showed that 87% of Republicans recognize him and 7% find him very favorable and 46 find him favorable, so don't count out Rick Perry yet. He is a hard hitter and has a war chest with him. We must also not forget that he is a major job creator.
2) The press also makes her less aware for better or worse, she could still possibly do something dumb again, but we can never know. One thing is sure, she is not guaranteed to win anywhere, not even in Iowa so she might as well not try.
3) He has campaigned the most in Iowa and thus can make an upset. Also if Newt Gingrich crashes, Santorum maybe the only alternative left to Romney. This puts Santorum is a good position.
4) I don't think there are that many extreme feminists in the country.

Bachmann has nowhere to go and might as well drop out.

I thank Con for posting such an interesting debate :)

Vote Pro!
Debate Round No. 3
20 comments have been posted on this debate. Showing 1 through 10 records.
Posted by 1Historygenius 5 years ago
1Historygenius
@LiberalHoyaLawya

"This was an even debate, but I have to give a slight edge to Pro. Con should have stuck to one candidate who he believed would drop out before Bachman (i.e., Rick Santorum, who will drop out if he doesn't win Iowa, is currently 6th in the polls there despite his vigorous campaigning). Instead, Con wasted space at the beginning arguing that frontrunners like Romney or Gingrich might drop out of the race before Bachmann. While I disagree with his conclusion, I have to give the debate to Pro."

And guess who else was wrong!? Yous aid Santorum WOULD drop out if he does not win Iowa. He did not win Iowa and he is still in!
Posted by 1Historygenius 5 years ago
1Historygenius
Oh yeah! (Time to get cocky) And look what happened imabench! I knew it would happn! Its her home states and she has finished dead last (Huntsman should probably not count because he did not campaign there! Yeah 2-0! @InVinoVeritas LOL I also thought of this!
Posted by InVinoVeritas 5 years ago
InVinoVeritas
As soon as I saw the news about Bachmann, I thought of this debate. :)
Posted by imabench 5 years ago
imabench
I would like to announce that after poor results in the Iowa Caucus, Michelle Bachmann has dropped out of the presidential race. Even though im already getting my *** kicked in this debate, the pro was indeed correct and i therefore accept that i have lost this debate...

http://news.yahoo.com...
Posted by 16kadams 5 years ago
16kadams
darn, he agreed with me in the end is what I meant
Posted by 16kadams 5 years ago
16kadams
oh...true he he. but he conceded, because I he agreed with my arguments (opinion change) if I remember correctly, so that...is a win kinda and kinda not.
Posted by imabench 5 years ago
imabench
yeah but I conceded that one
Posted by 1Historygenius 5 years ago
1Historygenius
@16kadams you forgot one debate about when does being a human start.
Posted by imabench 5 years ago
imabench
not helping...
Posted by 1Historygenius 5 years ago
1Historygenius
ok.
5 votes have been placed for this debate. Showing 1 through 5 records.
Vote Placed by 16kadams 5 years ago
16kadams
imabench1HistorygeniusTied
Agreed with before the debate:-Vote Checkmark-0 points
Agreed with after the debate:-Vote Checkmark-0 points
Who had better conduct:--Vote Checkmark1 point
Had better spelling and grammar:--Vote Checkmark1 point
Made more convincing arguments:-Vote Checkmark-3 points
Used the most reliable sources:--Vote Checkmark2 points
Total points awarded:03 
Reasons for voting decision: Imabench didn't provide enough proof for my taste, and he threw away and by explaining other candidates weakness. Sure that is a good point, bit wasn't needed in that great of detail.
Vote Placed by LiberalHoyaLawya 5 years ago
LiberalHoyaLawya
imabench1HistorygeniusTied
Agreed with before the debate:Vote Checkmark--0 points
Agreed with after the debate:Vote Checkmark--0 points
Who had better conduct:--Vote Checkmark1 point
Had better spelling and grammar:-Vote Checkmark-1 point
Made more convincing arguments:-Vote Checkmark-3 points
Used the most reliable sources:--Vote Checkmark2 points
Total points awarded:04 
Reasons for voting decision: This was an even debate, but I have to give a slight edge to Pro. Con should have stuck to one candidate who he believed would drop out before Bachman (i.e., Rick Santorum, who will drop out if he doesn't win Iowa, is currently 6th in the polls there despite his vigorous campaigning). Instead, Con wasted space at the beginning arguing that frontrunners like Romney or Gingrich might drop out of the race before Bachmann. While I disagree with his conclusion, I have to give the debate to Pro.
Vote Placed by lannan13 5 years ago
lannan13
imabench1HistorygeniusTied
Agreed with before the debate:Vote Checkmark--0 points
Agreed with after the debate:Vote Checkmark--0 points
Who had better conduct:-Vote Checkmark-1 point
Had better spelling and grammar:--Vote Checkmark1 point
Made more convincing arguments:-Vote Checkmark-3 points
Used the most reliable sources:-Vote Checkmark-2 points
Total points awarded:06 
Reasons for voting decision: I believe Con, but Teddy gets it with more info and more sources
Vote Placed by InVinoVeritas 5 years ago
InVinoVeritas
imabench1HistorygeniusTied
Agreed with before the debate:--Vote Checkmark0 points
Agreed with after the debate:--Vote Checkmark0 points
Who had better conduct:--Vote Checkmark1 point
Had better spelling and grammar:-Vote Checkmark-1 point
Made more convincing arguments:--Vote Checkmark3 points
Used the most reliable sources:-Vote Checkmark-2 points
Total points awarded:03 
Reasons for voting decision: Stronger statistical evidence for 1Historygenius' argument. Otherwise, equally convincing claims.
Vote Placed by Lordknukle 5 years ago
Lordknukle
imabench1HistorygeniusTied
Agreed with before the debate:--Vote Checkmark0 points
Agreed with after the debate:--Vote Checkmark0 points
Who had better conduct:--Vote Checkmark1 point
Had better spelling and grammar:-Vote Checkmark-1 point
Made more convincing arguments:--Vote Checkmark3 points
Used the most reliable sources:--Vote Checkmark2 points
Total points awarded:01 
Reasons for voting decision: Good debate. The arguments are about tied but I will give S