Who wins in a china - u.s war?
Why China Doesn't Lose in a US-Chinese Pacific War
The US military cannot occupy China
As it stands, the Chinese have the single largest ground army in the world today (some 1.6 milliion AD members compared to 550,000 US Army), and also posses the second largest navy and sencond largest air force; both in ships and in planes. Give the idea that even if the whole US military can make the 1,000 mi trip across the ocean and somehow overcome an outnumbered 3:1 ratio on the ground, -and that’s only if the Pentagon deploys every single tank, plane, ship, soldier, and hand-grenade it has- it would still have to overcome the logistical nightmare and mathematical impossibility of covering a country which sizes 3,705,000 square miles in total land area and is inhabited by more than 1/6 of the world’s total population - for the spectacular ratio of 2,400 Chinese inhabitants for every 1 US army soldier. Good luck!
Think Tank (RAND): China Beats U.S. in Simulated Taiwan Air War:
You are basing this whole argument off of the fact that the U.S would attack china.
I've tried to be as realistic as possible in my arguements, and the most plausible geographical setting for an actual war betwen US and China for me is going to be in the Asia and Pacific Theatre and not North America; I would give this scenario more credit than a Chinese attack on North America based on analysis figures of current US & Chinese military capability, positioning, and also strong political considerations as to where US-Sino conflict is most likely to occur (Taiwan, Korea, Japan, and Pakistan).
I will concede and say that the U.S would be defeated on Chinese territory but just because they win the battle does not mean that they win the war!
If you cannot occupy Chinese terrirtory, then I don't see how the Chinese government falls or how they are forced to capituate. True, this logic might also apply to the Chinese inability to invade the US homeland, but given the close proxmity of US allied countries to China (Japan, Taiwan, South Korea), and there realtive military weakness, vulnerability to invasion, and thier utter dependence on the US for military aid and protection (Taiwan alone has 2,000 PLA missiles pointed at it), I'd argue here that it is more likely that US interests and allied countries actually have more to lose in a Chinese-US War. And given the military picture and naval logistics which I described in R1 & R2 and supported by a DoD credited think-tank, it is also likely that the Chinese military -with its huge quanitative advatage in forces- could very well come out on top in a Pacific engagement. And though I've pretty much ignored non-military consequences throughout, I think its safe to say the US debt owed to China that you mention prior in R1, works both ways when it crashes, except China has some of the strongest currency resereves in the world and only half of it is in US dollars.
So If I had to summarize everything:
1) The US military cannot occupy China2) The US military cannot conventionally defeat the PLA
3) and the US has more to lose in a war agaisnt China.
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