Will North Korea Fall in the Near Future?
Debate Rounds (3)
It is well accepted by the respectable international community that it is only a matter of time before North Korea falls from political instability. It is already showing signs of it with Kim Jong-un executing this uncle, the second most powerful man in the DPRK. His uncle was also the man China, their only significant supporter, liked to talk to diplomatically. China (or anybody for that matter) does not like to talk to Kim Jong-un because he is too unpredictable and lacks certainty when it comes to relations.
By "near future" I mean probably a couple decades or so, but it is inevitable. North Korea lacks almost every vital resource including raw manufacturing materials, food, energy, money, and so on. They get the majority of those resources from China who wants to see them continue on for as long as possible but even they see the DPRK as an international nuisance. Unfortunately, China likes them because they're strategically convenient because they serve as a "buffer zone" between their border at the Yalu River and the American allies, the ROK and Japan, to the east. China also doesn't want to have to deal with the likely millions of North Korean refugees that would flood over their border from a probably violent political collapse of the DPRK.
I think it is obvious to see that the DPRK is not a lasting country due to apparent instability, a society not well designed for the long-run, and their sheer isolation that is causing them to drastically lag behind the world around them. Their society is incredibly behind that of other nations in development in both technology and society. The UN lists North Korea as a developing country under the standard that they have "large-scale breakdown of rule of law or non-development-oriented dictatorship" and they are a "failed state".
There is no way that they could dominate another country militarily, including South Korea, because they lack the ability. Economically, they would not be able to afford it. With their military idling as they are the DPRK still spends an estimated 20% of their GDP on their defense budget! In comparison, the United States, having the largest defense budget while actively fighting a global war on terror, spends about 4.5% of our GDP on our military. If North Korea wanted to wage a an all-out war they would have to raise their budget significantly forcing catastrophic budget cuts elsewhere that would quite possibly lead to their national collapse. North Korea can, right now, barely afford to feed their military much less afford an invasion campaign.
Also, the international community, especially the UN Security Council (perhaps excluding China) overwhelmingly support the ROK. The United States has about 28,000 troops deployed in the ROK as well as military installations. There are also UN forces in South Korea as well.
Ultimately, there is virtually nothing realistically going for the DPRK lasting into the distant future or being successful in any of their radical goals. While I find North Korea to be in interesting country I do look forward to the day that North and South Koreas are united and that will happen with the downfall of the DPRK.
Its main exports were minerals, metallurgical products, manufactures including armaments, textiles and agricultural and fishery products and its main imports petroleum, coking coal, machinery and equipment, textiles and grain, it says.
Estimated industry accounted for nearly half of GDP, followed by services and agriculture.
South Korea's Ministry of Unification put the amount of trade between the two countries in 2011 at about $1.7 billion. Of that, about $914 million was inbound and $800 million outbound. Government and private humanitarian assistance to North Korea totaled about $17.4 million, the ministry said.
Jang Jin-sung is the editor-in-chief of the website New Focus International, which produces news based on a network of North Korean exiles and sources within North Korea. Jang himself in 2004 fled North Korea, where he said he had been on the DPRK Central Broadcasting Committee and the country's Poet Laureate.
Jang said South Korean investments generated the bulk of North Korea's foreign currency income with another large chunk of income coming from trade with China. The largest portion of this was from the arms trade, he said.
All North Korean businesses involved with China were also required to give part of their profits -- usually more than 50% -- to the government's financial organization known as "Office 38" as "loyalty offerings," Jang said.
Who are North Korea's trading partners?
The CIA World Factbook said China accounted for an estimated 67.2% of North Korea's exports and 61.6% of imports in 2011. South Korea accounted for 19.4% of exports and 20% of imports, while India received an estimated 3.6% of exports and the European Union provided about 4% of imports in 2011.
If North Korea can replenish its fragile government and regain a sturdy military defense, it is sure not to fall until
Kim Jong Un goes out of power.
As I stated before and as you stated the DPRK is a fragile nation. North Korea's economy is heavily reliant on a few select countries due to their strong stance against globalization and capitalism. North Korea's Juche philosophy is against globalization so they attempt to be as independent as possible. That is not a good stance for them to remain competitive.
North Korea always claims that they are independent and self-sufficient, but that cannot be further from the truth. North Korea would starve without humanitarian aid and shipments from China (of which China gets remarkably little in return) and they would not be able to function industrially. You look at South Korea and you see a much more self-sufficient nation. The ROK has the 15th best market economy by nominal GDP and ranks 12th by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). They are largely an exporting economy.
North Korea on the other hand has very poor economic management. The DPRK insists on investing an exorbitant sum of their GDP into their defense budget. 20% is extremely excessive and does not have any return on investment. So 20% of their economy is immediately eliminated as if it never existed because their over-sized military serves no useful economic purpose.
"North Korea's industries include military products, machine building, electrical power, chemicals, mining, metallurgy, textiles, food processing and tourism."
North Korea's military industry mostly goes to serve their own military. There are a few countries they supply such as Syria, Iran, and Cuba. Each of those countries, also, have poor economies and are relatively unstable dictatorships so they do not serve as reliable customers. Their machine building industry is also largely kept domestic and only occasionally export them. Iran, for example, has purchased North Korean centrifuges for their nuclear program. I am not very informed on their chemical industry, but it is probably mostly kept domestic and maybe trades with China but I have not come across that as a major contributor to their economy. Mining is an industry the DPRK has been been attempting to expand extensively and is largely done at their prison camps with forced labor. Since some of the labor in this industry is free it would be a logical place to invest. Due to their internal investment on their mining industry their metallurgical products are likely to remain in the country and China would obviously have little demand for it since they make their own. North Korea's textile industry is the only industry that may grow in the future. Some international clothing brands have their products made or partly made in North Korea. Unfortunately for the DPRK, much of it is being done at the Kaesong Industrial Complex which is a shared region between the North and South Koreas. The DPRK under Kim Jong-un has been attempting to increase their tourism industry, but it has only met limited success due to their publicized kidnappings and militarization.
"If North Korea can replenish its fragile government and regain a sturdy military defense, it is sure not to fall until
Kim Jong Un goes out of power."
The likelihood of the DPRK to replenish their economy is very unlikely from my perspective along with many analysts. The DPRK remains one of the world's least developed and poorest countries with poor management. There are few breaks going North Korea's way. The few that do is mismanaged by their government or simply neglected. Their military defense is also weak. They have a very large military, sure, but as I said in my last argument, they can't use it. Their military is also crippled with lack of equipment, food, and other supplies so they couldn't sustain a war if they wanted to. Their economy also couldn't support a war for very long either. With 20% of their GDP going to their defense budget they still can't afford to sufficiently supply their military which is also an obvious sign of mismanagement with poor priorities. I can realistically see North Korea collapsing within Kim Jong-un's reign.
- ^ Reused sources from former argument.
The Juche slogan eventually emerged as an independent line and doctrine of national self-reliance in response to the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s. As is well known, Kim advanced three key principles of Juche in his April 14, 1965, speech "On Socialist Construction and the South Korean Revolution in the Democratic People"s Republic of Korea." These principles are (1) independence in politics (chaju), (2) self-sustenance in the economy (charip), and (3) self-defense in national defense (chawi). Kim Jong Il, who was officially designated as Kim"s successor in 1980, transformed Juche into a cult ideology from the mid-1970s. Not being an economist, military man, or political leader, his role was to interpret and propagandize his father"s doctrine and manage cultural affairs. Kim Jong Il was accountable to no one except Kim Il Sung and made Juche a fundamental belief in all matters.
Since its inception in 1955, Juche has undergone several pragmatic revisions, as seen in republished works by the Kims. Revision of authoritative texts is a common practice in North Korea, making the works consistent with and thereby justifying the changing political tactics. Ideologically, Juche is inseparable from socialism in the eyes of most North Koreans and is considered the only way the masses of people can maintain national independence. Yet, whatever modifications have been made in Juche over the past fifty-five years, the North Korean commitment to the program of nationally self-contained socialism has never changed.
Juche has several functions: (1) it serves to maintain the political independence of North Korea in the international community; (2) it simultaneously indoctrinates citizens to be loyal followers of the leader and to believe that they are the "masters of society"; (3) it promotes popular solidarity by uniting the people as a modern Neo-Confucian family headed by the "father leader" and "mother party"; (4) it justifies the North Korean conception of socialism amid economic decline in the post-Soviet era; and (5) finally, under adverse material conditions since the death of Kim Il Sung in 1994, it gives the people a reason to live, even to die for the regime. Apparently, most North Koreans seem to support Juche in principle. National pride and the desire to safeguard independence characterize all modern nations, and national self-sufficiency appeals to people in general, even though the world economic system makes it objectively necessary for national economies to operate interdependently.
Despite the apparent public support for Juche in principle, the North Korean leadership exploits it to preserve its own social interests. Juche is literally attached to anything sanctioned by Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. For example, there is Juche art for the state-approved style, Juche farming for the prescribed planting of crops, and Juche steel for the steelmaking process. These notions create the idea that North Korea is self-sufficient. Unfortunately, Juche is an anchor that prevents the state from moving forward. Although it is propagated in the media and in classrooms, regular North Koreans often do not observe Juche teachings in day-to-day life. Nevertheless, the ideology exerts considerable influence on North Korean domestic and foreign policy. With Neo-Confucian elements, nationalist populism, and a quasi-religious appeal, Juche explains in part why the North Korean regime is able to command popular support in the eroding totalitarian system.
The North Korean economy continues to apply the three ideological principles of Juche. Even though the regime has made concessions to capitalism since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 and is being structurally reintegrated into the international profit system, the 2009 revised North Korean constitution still maintains that "the means of production are owned by the state and social cooperative organizations." State ownership of industries and enterprises continues to be a cornerstone of the system. Therefore, although farmers, for example, have begun producing crops privately, most farms operate as collectives under government supervision. Furthermore, while central control of the economy is eroding, the state still formulates coordinated plans for production growth and balanced national economic development. As per the Juche principle of self-sustenance in economy, self-contained socialist production relations are based on an independent national economy. The result of Juche economics is that trade volume in 2008 was 3,820 million dollars (1/244th that of South Korea), and the nominal gross national income (GNI) was 27,347 billion won (1/38th that of South Korea).
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""On Eliminating Dogmatism and Formalism and Establishing the Subject in Ideological Work." Kim declared that the "subject" (juche) of the party ideological program was the Korean revolution, and he maintained a core belief in national self-determination and national pride. Thus, Soviet Marxist-Leninism was adapted to Korean conditions rather than accepted wholesale."
This is true, but not really a good thing for North Korea. The DPRK is referred to as a "Stalinstic" nation meaning it using Stalin's methods of Communist rule. Stalin ruled much like a dictator rather than a fair and somewhat democratic ruler like Lenin or even Charles Marx really intended. Socialism was not conceived to necessarily be an autocratic system as you can see in the European Union where they are still democracies. It would have been better if North Korea did accept a Leninist system instead because then they actually would have been a more democratic and fair nation rather than a dictatorship. A good example of a stable and democratic Leninist nation is Vietnam. The idea of dogmatism is completely false as well. The DPRK is filled with unfounded assertions and false truths as anybody can plainly see.
I will not address the rest of your argument because it is all just basic information that is not in the form of an actual argument. Next time please actually make an argument that is yours so we can have a real debate.
coolguy798 forfeited this round.
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Vote Placed by frozen_eclipse 3 years ago
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