The Instigator
amey
Pro (for)
Losing
0 Points
The Contender
Jay-D
Con (against)
Winning
14 Points

the current AAP govt in Delhi,India will not be able to win more than 10 seats during the elections.

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Post Voting Period
The voting period for this debate has ended.
after 2 votes the winner is...
Jay-D
Voting Style: Open Point System: 7 Point
Started: 1/6/2014 Category: Politics
Updated: 3 years ago Status: Post Voting Period
Viewed: 929 times Debate No: 43467
Debate Rounds (5)
Comments (2)
Votes (2)

 

amey

Pro

I think so.I am eager to view the con's views.
Jay-D

Con

I accept the challenge. I thank Pro for instigating this debate.
However, I would like to point out that my opponent has not explained his stance in adequate detail. I shall take the liberty of explaining mine.

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Founding statements


I assume, that by "the elections", my opponent means the upcoming 16th general elections in the summer of 2014.

The general elections will decide the composition of the Lok Sabha (lit. House of the people). There are 543 seats (one in every constituency) available for election by the citizens of India.
http://www.electionsinfo.com...

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The United Progressive Alliance (UPA), led by the Indian National Congress (INC), emerged with majority in the 15th general elections (2009). Their main competitors are the National Democratic alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
http://en.wikipedia.org...

The Gandhi family (descendants of Jawaharlal Nehru and not Mahatma Gandhi) controls the INC, whereas the BJP is led by president Rajnath Singh and prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi.

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The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP, lit. common man's party) is a debutante in the upcoming general elections. The party is led by Arvind Kejriwal.

In the recently concluded legislative assembly elections in Delhi, the AAP managed to win 28 seats out of the total of 70.
http://zeenews.india.com...

The party and its leaders show great promise. They are scheduled to begin a massive recruitment drive, starting January 10. A few months ago, hardly anyone, especially the INC, took the AAP seriously. But with the crushing defeat of the INC (8/70 seats) at the hands of the AAP (28/70 seats) and the BJP (32/70 seats) has raised many eyebrows.


The AAP promises to be a party-pooper, if not a potential dark horse at the 2014 elections.

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There are 7 constituencies in Delhi i.e. 7 out of the total 543 seats in the Lok Sabha are for elected representatives from Delhi.
As such, it is absurd to state that the Delhi branch of the AAP alone can manage to secure 10 or more seats.
Therefore, I shall be arguing that the AAP, in all its branches nationwide, can (and, by logic, will) secure more than 10 seats in the upcoming elections.

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Opening arguments



Pro's prediction: AAP will not be able to win more than 10 seats during the elections.

Rebuttal:

10 seats is really low for a party like AAP, which shows such great promise. If we look at the 2013 Delhi elections, AAP won 28 out of 70 seats.
The best way to predict seats right now, 4 months prior to the actual elections, would be by statistical probability.
Simple math would tell that the AAP is capable of winning 3 out of the total 7 seats from Delhi (28/70 = 2.8/7 ~ 3/7). At the least, one can safely say that AAP can secure 2 or more out of the 7 seats.

Therefore, in Delhi, the AAP has a healthy success rate (probability) of at least 28.6% (2/7 in per cent), going as high as 40% (28/70), giving a mean success rate of 34.3%.

The AAP has stated that it will contest elections in 20 states, including the largest one, Uttar Pradesh (UP), which has 80 seats in the Lok Sabha.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...

I'll make a reasonable assumption: Out of the total 35 states and union territories (S & UTs), the AAP will contest elections in Delhi, UP, and the 18 S & UTs with the least representation in the Lok Sabha.


This adds up to a total of 131 possible seats, and this is considering the least possible number.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org...

If we assume that people's confidence in AAP in these 20 S & UTs is the same as that shown in 2013 Delhi polls, then:
Least possible seats for AAP: 28.6% of 131 = 37.
Maximum possible seats for AAP: 40% of 131 = 53.
Average expected seats for AAP: 34.3% of 131 = 45.

If we assume that people's confidence in AAP in the 20 S & UTs is half (i.e. their success rate is halved) of that shown in 2013 Delhi polls, then least possible seats to be secured by the AAP is still 37/2 = 18.

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Counter statement:


If we assume that the AAP will contest in UP, Delhi, and the 18 states and union territories with least representation in the Lok Sabha, and that AAP's success rate is half of what they produced in the 2013 Delhi assembly polls, it is still more than likely that they will secure AT LEAST 18 SEATS in the Lok Sabha.
Under the same assumptions, AAP can secure as high as 23 seats.

If we consider larger states such as Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Andhra Pradesh (which I haven't taken under my assumption but will be most likely contested by AAP), then the number rises even higher, as the total number of seats up for grabs becomes not 131, but closer to 250.
It is quite likely that AAP will contest 300 seats, if not more.

Under such circumstances, if Pro says that AAP cannot win more than 10 seats, that shows a success rate of 3.33%. Let's face it. Those odds are too absurd for a party that almost single-handedly formed a majority in the capital territory, even if it's a debutante party.

Hence, I must say that the prediction made by Pro is one of an impossible scenario.

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I eagerly await my opponent's arguments and rebuttals in the subsequent rounds.
Debate Round No. 1
amey

Pro

amey forfeited this round.
Jay-D

Con

Unfortunately, my opponent has forfeited the current round.

I extend all previous arguments, and hope that Pro returns to present his opening statements and counter mine in the next round.
Debate Round No. 2
amey

Pro

amey forfeited this round.
Jay-D

Con

Oh, dear. Not another forfeit!

I extend all my previous arguments (again), and hope that Pro shows up for the next round.
Debate Round No. 3
amey

Pro

Monsieur i am absolutely amazed by your response and i concede my defeat please vote for CON.
Jay-D

Con

Well, there we have it, albeit disappointingly. My opponent has conceded the debate to me.

I thank Pro for instigating this debate. I will provide my final statements in round 5 when it is due, and conclude the debate.
Debate Round No. 4
amey

Pro

amey forfeited this round.
Jay-D

Con

My opponent has forfeited the final round and conceded the debate to me, failing to make a single argument. I shall now conclude the debate.

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Conclusion

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is not to be taken lightly during the upcoming general elections.

I have already shown, that if statistically, the AAP's stunning debut in the Delhi polls is anything to go by, they are capable of securing AT LEAST 18 seats in the parliament.


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A recent announcement by senior AAP leader Prashant Bhushan has revealed that the party is looking to contest more than 400 seats.

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com...

My calculations, which showed AAP winning at least 18 seats, was based on the assumption that they will contest only 131 seats.

400 is more than three times 131. Therefore, a reasonable assumption would be to say that AAP can win at least three times 18 i.e. 54 seats.

This is a far cry from Pro's original prediction, which said 10 seats.

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I believe I have sufficiently proven my opponent's prediction wrong.

Please vote Con.
Debate Round No. 5
2 comments have been posted on this debate. Showing 1 through 2 records.
Posted by Theunkown 2 years ago
Theunkown
Perhaps so Jay-D but at least you did not forfeit after like, one round of arguments.
Posted by Jay-D 2 years ago
Jay-D
Well, as it turns out, I was WRONG in my prediction :P the poll results came in today, and AAP ended up with only 5 seats :D
2 votes have been placed for this debate. Showing 1 through 2 records.
Vote Placed by Ragnar 3 years ago
Ragnar
ameyJay-DTied
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Total points awarded:07 
Reasons for voting decision: CONDUCT: FF. S&G: Errors in what little pro typed. ARGUMENT: everything uncontested (at which point con could have argued he's a little t-pot, and still won). SOURCES: Con clearly put a good amount of effort forward on research.
Vote Placed by iamanatheistandthisiswhy 3 years ago
iamanatheistandthisiswhy
ameyJay-DTied
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Total points awarded:07 
Reasons for voting decision: Full Forfeit and as requested by Pro, all points go to Con.