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Instigators are most likely to Lose

KroneckerDelta
Posts: 36
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2/6/2013 12:41:59 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
I almost instigated this debate, but I figure it's really a matter of fact (one way or the other).

I simply present two reasons why this is likely the case. I would be interested if anyone can present statistics to the contrary.

1) Instigators tend to not frame their debates well. That is, they have a topic in mind, but tend to obfuscate that topic and, as such, tend to lose on topicality/the meaning of their resolution.

2) Challengers are likely to only accept debates which they think they have a good chance of winning. As such, the overwhelming amount of poorly framed resolutions leaves instigators open to a wide array of attacks from challengers that see technical problems with their resolution.

Just curious to see what others opinions are on this matter.
KroneckerDelta
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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2/6/2013 4:20:29 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/6/2013 12:41:59 AM, KroneckerDelta wrote:
I almost instigated this debate, but I figure it's really a matter of fact (one way or the other).

I simply present two reasons why this is likely the case. I would be interested if anyone can present statistics to the contrary.

1) Instigators tend to not frame their debates well. That is, they have a topic in mind, but tend to obfuscate that topic and, as such, tend to lose on topicality/the meaning of their resolution.
Not if they are good debaters, or, at least, have experience in formal debates.

2) Challengers are likely to only accept debates which they think they have a good chance of winning. As such, the overwhelming amount of poorly framed resolutions leaves instigators open to a wide array of attacks from challengers that see technical problems with their resolution.
And if instigators only create debates they think they will win, why is there an edge one way or the other?

All in all, I would say you are at a disadvantage as the instigator due to poor framing, but are at a huge advantage because the instigator has had all the time they want to prepare for the debate, while the contender only has a finite time to prepare, and likely significantly less.

I would guess the win ratio is more of a wash, with the biggest variabe being actual skills of the debators in question.
My work here is, finally, done.
RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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2/6/2013 11:34:03 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
In the referenced debate, Ore_Ele gives the stats: "Of the many thousands of debates on Debate.org, 13,285 have not ended in a draw. Of those, the Instigator has won 4,578 of them and the Contender has won 8,680 of them." Clearly the contender has an advantage.

The version of Elo used on DDO (innovated by Ore_Ele) gives bonus points to the Instigator as compensation. If you contend and win against an opponent with a low Elo score, you may lose points even if you win the debate.

Exactly why the contender has an advantage is not clear. Many people judging debates think the Instigator has the burden of proof, which roughly means proof beyond a reasonable doubt rather than proof by a preponderance of evidence.

I think that an important factor is that a challenge is more likely to be accepted by a debater who is very knowledgeable on the subject, whereas the Instigator is more likely to just be interested in the subject rather than expert in it. In an open challenge, there are thousands of members who might respond, and some of them are likely to be quite expert.
lannan13
Posts: 23,078
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2/6/2013 11:43:39 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
I disagree
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If the sky's the limit then why do we have footprints on the Moon? I'm shooting my aspirations for the stars.

"If you are going through hell, keep going." "Sir Winston Churchill

"No one can make you feel inferior without your consent." "Eleanor Roosevelt

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imabench
Posts: 21,220
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2/6/2013 2:19:53 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Theres also the fact that contenders usually get to have the last word, which resonates more then the instigators last arguments to voters when they vote....
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
IncredulousVessel
Posts: 66
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2/6/2013 2:26:36 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/6/2013 2:19:53 PM, imabench wrote:
Theres also the fact that contenders usually get to have the last word, which resonates more then the instigators last arguments to voters when they vote....

Instigator gets first word your point is moot.
"Most people put a witty, intelligent or humorous quote here."

"Most people will die."
lannan13
Posts: 23,078
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2/6/2013 3:25:32 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/6/2013 11:52:12 AM, RoyLatham wrote:
At 2/6/2013 11:43:39 AM, lannan13 wrote:
I disagree

With what?

that insigators are mostly likely to lose.
-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-Lannan13'S SIGNATURE-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-

If the sky's the limit then why do we have footprints on the Moon? I'm shooting my aspirations for the stars.

"If you are going through hell, keep going." "Sir Winston Churchill

"No one can make you feel inferior without your consent." "Eleanor Roosevelt

Topics I want to debate. (http://tinyurl.com...)
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imabench
Posts: 21,220
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2/6/2013 3:37:53 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/6/2013 2:26:36 PM, IncredulousVessel wrote:
At 2/6/2013 2:19:53 PM, imabench wrote:
Theres also the fact that contenders usually get to have the last word, which resonates more then the instigators last arguments to voters when they vote....

Instigator gets first word your point is moot.

The first word doesnt mean hell in debates... People read the final arguments last before they vote, not the very first ones, that gives the contender a massive advantage.
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
IncredulousVessel
Posts: 66
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2/6/2013 3:49:45 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/6/2013 3:37:53 PM, imabench wrote:
At 2/6/2013 2:26:36 PM, IncredulousVessel wrote:
At 2/6/2013 2:19:53 PM, imabench wrote:
Theres also the fact that contenders usually get to have the last word, which resonates more then the instigators last arguments to voters when they vote....

Instigator gets first word your point is moot.

The first word doesnt mean hell in debates... People read the final arguments last before they vote, not the very first ones, that gives the contender a massive advantage.

The first word is the first impression.
"Most people put a witty, intelligent or humorous quote here."

"Most people will die."
imabench
Posts: 21,220
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2/6/2013 3:54:07 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/6/2013 3:49:45 PM, IncredulousVessel wrote:
At 2/6/2013 3:37:53 PM, imabench wrote:
At 2/6/2013 2:26:36 PM, IncredulousVessel wrote:
At 2/6/2013 2:19:53 PM, imabench wrote:
Theres also the fact that contenders usually get to have the last word, which resonates more then the instigators last arguments to voters when they vote....

Instigator gets first word your point is moot.

The first word doesnt mean hell in debates... People read the final arguments last before they vote, not the very first ones, that gives the contender a massive advantage.

The first word is the first impression.

Which doesnt mean anything....
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
IncredulousVessel
Posts: 66
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2/6/2013 4:02:44 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/6/2013 3:54:07 PM, imabench wrote:
At 2/6/2013 3:49:45 PM, IncredulousVessel wrote:
At 2/6/2013 3:37:53 PM, imabench wrote:
At 2/6/2013 2:26:36 PM, IncredulousVessel wrote:
At 2/6/2013 2:19:53 PM, imabench wrote:
Theres also the fact that contenders usually get to have the last word, which resonates more then the instigators last arguments to voters when they vote....

Instigator gets first word your point is moot.

The first word doesnt mean hell in debates... People read the final arguments last before they vote, not the very first ones, that gives the contender a massive advantage.

The first word is the first impression.

Which doesnt mean anything....

Perhaps not to a fool like you.
"Most people put a witty, intelligent or humorous quote here."

"Most people will die."
lannan13
Posts: 23,078
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2/6/2013 4:04:11 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/6/2013 4:02:44 PM, IncredulousVessel wrote:
At 2/6/2013 3:54:07 PM, imabench wrote:
At 2/6/2013 3:49:45 PM, IncredulousVessel wrote:
At 2/6/2013 3:37:53 PM, imabench wrote:
At 2/6/2013 2:26:36 PM, IncredulousVessel wrote:
At 2/6/2013 2:19:53 PM, imabench wrote:
Theres also the fact that contenders usually get to have the last word, which resonates more then the instigators last arguments to voters when they vote....

Instigator gets first word your point is moot.

The first word doesnt mean hell in debates... People read the final arguments last before they vote, not the very first ones, that gives the contender a massive advantage.

The first word is the first impression.

Which doesnt mean anything....

Perhaps not to a fool like you.

slap yourself IV, Imabench is the most repected member on this site.
-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-Lannan13'S SIGNATURE-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-

If the sky's the limit then why do we have footprints on the Moon? I'm shooting my aspirations for the stars.

"If you are going through hell, keep going." "Sir Winston Churchill

"No one can make you feel inferior without your consent." "Eleanor Roosevelt

Topics I want to debate. (http://tinyurl.com...)
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IncredulousVessel
Posts: 66
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2/6/2013 4:05:11 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/6/2013 4:04:11 PM, lannan13 wrote:
At 2/6/2013 4:02:44 PM, IncredulousVessel wrote:
At 2/6/2013 3:54:07 PM, imabench wrote:
At 2/6/2013 3:49:45 PM, IncredulousVessel wrote:
At 2/6/2013 3:37:53 PM, imabench wrote:
At 2/6/2013 2:26:36 PM, IncredulousVessel wrote:
At 2/6/2013 2:19:53 PM, imabench wrote:
Theres also the fact that contenders usually get to have the last word, which resonates more then the instigators last arguments to voters when they vote....

Instigator gets first word your point is moot.

The first word doesnt mean hell in debates... People read the final arguments last before they vote, not the very first ones, that gives the contender a massive advantage.

The first word is the first impression.

Which doesnt mean anything....

Perhaps not to a fool like you.

slap yourself IV, Imabench is the most repected member on this site.

Then I fear for this site.
"Most people put a witty, intelligent or humorous quote here."

"Most people will die."
imabench
Posts: 21,220
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2/6/2013 4:05:27 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/6/2013 4:02:44 PM, IncredulousVessel wrote:
At 2/6/2013 3:54:07 PM, imabench wrote:
At 2/6/2013 3:49:45 PM, IncredulousVessel wrote:
At 2/6/2013 3:37:53 PM, imabench wrote:
At 2/6/2013 2:26:36 PM, IncredulousVessel wrote:
At 2/6/2013 2:19:53 PM, imabench wrote:
Theres also the fact that contenders usually get to have the last word, which resonates more then the instigators last arguments to voters when they vote....

Instigator gets first word your point is moot.

The first word doesnt mean hell in debates... People read the final arguments last before they vote, not the very first ones, that gives the contender a massive advantage.

The first word is the first impression.

Which doesnt mean anything....

Perhaps not to a fool like you.

http://cdn.memegenerator.net...
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
IncredulousVessel
Posts: 66
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2/6/2013 4:06:07 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/6/2013 4:05:27 PM, imabench wrote:
At 2/6/2013 4:02:44 PM, IncredulousVessel wrote:
At 2/6/2013 3:54:07 PM, imabench wrote:
At 2/6/2013 3:49:45 PM, IncredulousVessel wrote:
At 2/6/2013 3:37:53 PM, imabench wrote:
At 2/6/2013 2:26:36 PM, IncredulousVessel wrote:
At 2/6/2013 2:19:53 PM, imabench wrote:
Theres also the fact that contenders usually get to have the last word, which resonates more then the instigators last arguments to voters when they vote....

Instigator gets first word your point is moot.

The first word doesnt mean hell in debates... People read the final arguments last before they vote, not the very first ones, that gives the contender a massive advantage.

The first word is the first impression.

Which doesnt mean anything....

Perhaps not to a fool like you.

http://cdn.memegenerator.net...

And you're the teacher of that class.
"Most people put a witty, intelligent or humorous quote here."

"Most people will die."
imabench
Posts: 21,220
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2/6/2013 4:06:12 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/6/2013 4:04:11 PM, lannan13 wrote:

slap yourself IV, Imabench is the most respected member on this site.

................... Im not even close.
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
IncredulousVessel
Posts: 66
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2/6/2013 4:06:58 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/6/2013 4:06:12 PM, imabench wrote:
At 2/6/2013 4:04:11 PM, lannan13 wrote:

slap yourself IV, Imabench is the most respected member on this site.

................... Im not even close.

Good to know.
"Most people put a witty, intelligent or humorous quote here."

"Most people will die."
imabench
Posts: 21,220
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2/6/2013 4:14:22 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/6/2013 4:06:58 PM, IncredulousVessel wrote:
At 2/6/2013 4:06:12 PM, imabench wrote:
At 2/6/2013 4:04:11 PM, lannan13 wrote:

slap yourself IV, Imabench is the most respected member on this site.

................... Im not even close.

Good to know.

So how are you liking DDO so far?
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
darkkermit
Posts: 11,204
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2/6/2013 4:36:34 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Plus, there's also the fact that the contender often gets an extra rebuttal. The rounds are usually like this:

Round 1: Instigator makes case, Contender makes case AND rebuttal.

So the instigator gets an extra rebuttal.

Also, the contender makes arguments in the last round that the instigator is unable to respond to, while all of the instigators arguments are responded to.
Open borders debate:
http://www.debate.org...
Double_R
Posts: 4,886
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2/8/2013 3:22:40 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/6/2013 11:34:03 AM, RoyLatham wrote:
Exactly why the contender has an advantage is not clear. Many people judging debates think the Instigator has the burden of proof, which roughly means proof beyond a reasonable doubt rather than proof by a preponderance of evidence.

I think this is a major issue with voting on DDO. The burden of proof is a very different concept from the spectrum of doubt. Many people don't seem to realize this because they are stuck in the criminal justice system box. The burden of proof is simply a matter of whose responsibility it is to prove their case. The spectrum of doubt is a measure of how convincing their argument must be. Claiming that someone must prove their case beyond a reasonable doubt to win a debate is silly. It is like telling the home team that they lost the game because they only outscored their opponent by 9 runs, not 10.
000ike
Posts: 11,196
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2/8/2013 5:39:46 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
I did a debate on it here a long while ago, if you want to see http://www.debate.org...
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault