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The ELO system is mathematically broken

Envisage
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11/3/2014 6:49:11 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
In any ideal ELO system, the points gained by the winner are exactly equal to the points lost by the loser. This prevents over-inflation of ELO's and leads to a natural 'ELO Cap' on the best players/debaters.

For example in chess, the best chess players of all time over the past 100 years has been around 2,700-2,900 ELO, which pretty accurately reflects the limits of human ability. The limits are liable to change but the law of diminishing returns eventually has an effect.

The same is simply not applicable to DDO, with players with ELO's that perpetually inflate (Mikal for example shows no signs of stopping if the ELO cap didn't exist for him, even after taking a couple of losses to vastly lower rated opponents).

One issue is the instigator bonus. If 2 debaters of 2,000 ELO debate each other, if the instigator wins, he will gain 125 points, and the loser will only lose 75 points (a discrepancy of 50 points). On the flip side, if the instigator loses, then he loses 125 points and the contender gains 75 points, still a 50 point discrepancy.

The points lost/gained should be equal. If the instigator loses 125 points, then the contender gains 125 points, for example. It's pretty much fundamental to how a correct ELO system should work but this bit of asthmatic is a pretty abysmal fail.

In chess at least, using the English system, a person with 110 ELO is normalised to win against someone with 100 ELO 80% of the time (my memory is rusty). Someone with 120 will win 80% against someone with 110, and so on. No such normalisation is present with DDO's ELO system.
thett3
Posts: 14,378
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11/3/2014 9:09:44 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
I agree with this, mostly. Although I thought you were making a different point entirely which is that I'm pretty sure the system is literally broken. I'm not too into ELO but I know when I lost my debate with Tulle it didn't even affect it...and there was another time where two team debate accounts debated and the amount of ELO won and lost was completely different than what it should've been. I don't know if this was fixed or common..someone who knows more about ELO than I would know.
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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
bluesteel
Posts: 12,301
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11/3/2014 7:14:10 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/3/2014 6:49:11 AM, Envisage wrote:
In any ideal ELO system, the points gained by the winner are exactly equal to the points lost by the loser. This prevents over-inflation of ELO's and leads to a natural 'ELO Cap' on the best players/debaters.

For example in chess, the best chess players of all time over the past 100 years has been around 2,700-2,900 ELO, which pretty accurately reflects the limits of human ability. The limits are liable to change but the law of diminishing returns eventually has an effect.

The same is simply not applicable to DDO, with players with ELO's that perpetually inflate (Mikal for example shows no signs of stopping if the ELO cap didn't exist for him, even after taking a couple of losses to vastly lower rated opponents).

One issue is the instigator bonus. If 2 debaters of 2,000 ELO debate each other, if the instigator wins, he will gain 125 points, and the loser will only lose 75 points (a discrepancy of 50 points). On the flip side, if the instigator loses, then he loses 125 points and the contender gains 75 points, still a 50 point discrepancy.

The points lost/gained should be equal. If the instigator loses 125 points, then the contender gains 125 points, for example. It's pretty much fundamental to how a correct ELO system should work but this bit of asthmatic is a pretty abysmal fail.

In chess at least, using the English system, a person with 110 ELO is normalised to win against someone with 100 ELO 80% of the time (my memory is rusty). Someone with 120 will win 80% against someone with 110, and so on. No such normalisation is present with DDO's ELO system.

I've always disagreed with the contender penalty. In chess, white has a slightly higher win percentage. Yet the ELO system for chess doesn't penalize players in terms of ELO for playing as white.

I used to think that the contender disadvantage was based on other factors, i.e. noobs being more likely to instigate. However, Ore_Ele proved to me with statistics from randomly selected DDO debates that the discrepancy with n00bs instigating more often does not explain the fact that contender win percentages are lower. I don't really remember the specifics though. I think we disproved that *forfeits* explained the differential. I'm not sure we proved that it's not explained by n00bs instigating more often.

Given the techniques that have developed to avoid contending (due to the penalty) and setting non-open debates (where you have to apply in the comments section), I think the original situation that necessitated the penalty is seriously undermined. The idea was to stop n00b sniping. But as a n00b, do you really want a system that discourages good debaters from ever accepting your debates. Unlike chess, where "tournaments" tend to only pair good players with each other, DDO is a completely open system (like an online chess site). You could simply make the penalty steeper in regards to taking a debate with a high ELO differential to stop really bad n00b sniping, rather than penalizing all contenders.

And I there's some merit to the argument that even if there's a differential in win percentage between contenders and instigators, it's not the ELO system's job to correct for that. At debate tournaments on certain topics, there is sometimes a huge skew (e.g. Pro winning 60% of the time). The tournament doesn't correct for that. It is what it is.

It's very problematic, actually. The instigator bonus is so high that it means that a loss, even to a much lower ranked opponent, does not result in much of a loss in ELO in absolute terms (like thett losing to tulle). It also means that when Mikal instigates a debate, even if his ELO is 8,700 and his opponent's is 1,300, he is still guaranteed a large minimum ELO bump.

The system is also broken because debates that are still open (i.e. were instigated before Juggle eliminated the "unlimited" voting period) are constantly screwing up the formula. The reason Kleptin's score fluctuates constantly with swings of several hundred ELO is because one of his former opponent's (whose voting period with him is still open) has boosted his or her ELO, so Kleptin gets the benefit of this boost. It means that if he beat someone back when they sucked, as long as they get better over time, it boosts Kleptin's ELO retroactively. Juggle should really fix that by simply closing all those voting periods.
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
bluesteel
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11/3/2014 7:18:16 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Also, for DDO tournaments or when two DDO debaters pre-arrange a debate, the boost/penalty is completely pointless and unfair, since whoever gets designated as the contender gets screwed.
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
YYW
Posts: 36,391
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11/3/2014 7:22:07 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
In addition to what bluesteel said, which I agree with, the nature of the topic really has a lot of impact (and I think probably the most substantive impact) on a person's probability to win or lose.

On fairly balanced topics, the more skilled debater usually wins, but on "devils advocate" debates, it's less likely that the person who is arguing from a position that defies conventional standards is going to win -no matter how compelling their argument may be.
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Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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11/3/2014 8:09:53 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/3/2014 6:49:11 AM, Envisage wrote:
In any ideal ELO system, the points gained by the winner are exactly equal to the points lost by the loser. This prevents over-inflation of ELO's and leads to a natural 'ELO Cap' on the best players/debaters.

For example in chess, the best chess players of all time over the past 100 years has been around 2,700-2,900 ELO, which pretty accurately reflects the limits of human ability. The limits are liable to change but the law of diminishing returns eventually has an effect.

That's not "mathematically broken" that is "fundamentally broken." To which I would disagree. The key difference is that chess is an almost entirely level playing field. While it can be argued that there is no inherent advantage (I'll yield that debate to the grandmasters, who are not settled on the matter, white wins about 52.5% of the time). However, even if there were, when in a tournament, you can't just say "I'm white, or not playing" as you can in debate.

The contender advantage yields a win about 65% of the time (granted, the numbers have not been re-run in a few years). To that, there is a clear difference between chess and debate to where they cannot simply be compared side by side.


The same is simply not applicable to DDO, with players with ELO's that perpetually inflate (Mikal for example shows no signs of stopping if the ELO cap didn't exist for him, even after taking a couple of losses to vastly lower rated opponents).

One issue is the instigator bonus. If 2 debaters of 2,000 ELO debate each other, if the instigator wins, he will gain 125 points, and the loser will only lose 75 points (a discrepancy of 50 points). On the flip side, if the instigator loses, then he loses 125 points and the contender gains 75 points, still a 50 point discrepancy.

The points lost/gained should be equal. If the instigator loses 125 points, then the contender gains 125 points, for example. It's pretty much fundamental to how a correct ELO system should work but this bit of asthmatic is a pretty abysmal fail.

This is actually the way it is (or at least the way that it was given to Juggle to code, I've told them numerous times that their coding was off but so far to my knowledge, nothing has been done).


In chess at least, using the English system, a person with 110 ELO is normalised to win against someone with 100 ELO 80% of the time (my memory is rusty). Someone with 120 will win 80% against someone with 110, and so on. No such normalisation is present with DDO's ELO system.

Due to the inherent contender advantage, this would actually yield more outrageous ELO discrepencies, which you just lobbied against. Using Mikal as an example (though you could use Bluesteel, myself, or any other debater that has done a ton of debates with a high winning percentage). You'll find that all of them except debates, rather than create them (usually at a rate of about 10 to 1, some worse than that).
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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11/3/2014 9:45:12 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Also, I would not say that the instigator adjustment is "broken" or "flawed" but rather "outdated" and "obsolete." Now, we often set debates to be un-acceptable, so that we can control who we debate. At the time ELO was created, that was virtually never done. The adjustment in our debating practices has made something that was once needed, un-needed. And so long as we continue to do that and encourage new members to do it as well, I do agree that the instigator advantage can be removed for debates going forward.
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YYW
Posts: 36,391
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11/3/2014 9:48:39 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/3/2014 9:45:12 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Also, I would not say that the instigator adjustment is "broken" or "flawed" but rather "outdated" and "obsolete." Now, we often set debates to be un-acceptable, so that we can control who we debate. At the time ELO was created, that was virtually never done. The adjustment in our debating practices has made something that was once needed, un-needed. And so long as we continue to do that and encourage new members to do it as well, I do agree that the instigator advantage can be removed for debates going forward.

So... you're going to remove it, then?
Tsar of DDO
Ore_Ele
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11/3/2014 9:51:34 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/3/2014 9:48:39 PM, YYW wrote:
At 11/3/2014 9:45:12 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Also, I would not say that the instigator adjustment is "broken" or "flawed" but rather "outdated" and "obsolete." Now, we often set debates to be un-acceptable, so that we can control who we debate. At the time ELO was created, that was virtually never done. The adjustment in our debating practices has made something that was once needed, un-needed. And so long as we continue to do that and encourage new members to do it as well, I do agree that the instigator advantage can be removed for debates going forward.

So... you're going to remove it, then?

It's not my call. It hasn't been since the day it was implemented. I only created the formula and gave it to Juggle. They coded it and have since not adjusted it. I've pointed out examples where their code was wrong, and ways to improve it. Nothing happened. I am not the keeper of the code, merely the creator that has no control over the beast.
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YYW
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11/3/2014 9:52:39 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/3/2014 9:51:34 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/3/2014 9:48:39 PM, YYW wrote:
At 11/3/2014 9:45:12 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Also, I would not say that the instigator adjustment is "broken" or "flawed" but rather "outdated" and "obsolete." Now, we often set debates to be un-acceptable, so that we can control who we debate. At the time ELO was created, that was virtually never done. The adjustment in our debating practices has made something that was once needed, un-needed. And so long as we continue to do that and encourage new members to do it as well, I do agree that the instigator advantage can be removed for debates going forward.

So... you're going to remove it, then?

It's not my call. It hasn't been since the day it was implemented. I only created the formula and gave it to Juggle. They coded it and have since not adjusted it. I've pointed out examples where their code was wrong, and ways to improve it. Nothing happened. I am not the keeper of the code, merely the creator that has no control over the beast.

What steps should be taken to correct the problem?

Did Juggle explain why they're dragging their feet?
Tsar of DDO
bluesteel
Posts: 12,301
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11/3/2014 11:14:57 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/3/2014 9:51:34 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/3/2014 9:48:39 PM, YYW wrote:
At 11/3/2014 9:45:12 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Also, I would not say that the instigator adjustment is "broken" or "flawed" but rather "outdated" and "obsolete." Now, we often set debates to be un-acceptable, so that we can control who we debate. At the time ELO was created, that was virtually never done. The adjustment in our debating practices has made something that was once needed, un-needed. And so long as we continue to do that and encourage new members to do it as well, I do agree that the instigator advantage can be removed for debates going forward.

So... you're going to remove it, then?

It's not my call. It hasn't been since the day it was implemented. I only created the formula and gave it to Juggle. They coded it and have since not adjusted it. I've pointed out examples where their code was wrong, and ways to improve it. Nothing happened. I am not the keeper of the code, merely the creator that has no control over the beast.

What are the other ways the code is messed up, besides the "open debate period" one already mentioned?
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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11/3/2014 11:39:53 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/3/2014 11:14:57 PM, bluesteel wrote:
At 11/3/2014 9:51:34 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/3/2014 9:48:39 PM, YYW wrote:
At 11/3/2014 9:45:12 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Also, I would not say that the instigator adjustment is "broken" or "flawed" but rather "outdated" and "obsolete." Now, we often set debates to be un-acceptable, so that we can control who we debate. At the time ELO was created, that was virtually never done. The adjustment in our debating practices has made something that was once needed, un-needed. And so long as we continue to do that and encourage new members to do it as well, I do agree that the instigator advantage can be removed for debates going forward.

So... you're going to remove it, then?

It's not my call. It hasn't been since the day it was implemented. I only created the formula and gave it to Juggle. They coded it and have since not adjusted it. I've pointed out examples where their code was wrong, and ways to improve it. Nothing happened. I am not the keeper of the code, merely the creator that has no control over the beast.

What are the other ways the code is messed up, besides the "open debate period" one already mentioned?

The actual formula is messed up. There was a team debate when they made new accounts, Team A and Team B. These two debated each other once, so the results should be easily calculated, but the change in ELO was not what it was supposed to be. I reported it to Juggle and got nothing from it. The problem is that the guy that coded it for us is no longer with Juggle and I think he may have done coding that only he could read. I think he Dennis Nedry'd it.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
bluesteel
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11/3/2014 11:51:32 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/3/2014 11:39:53 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/3/2014 11:14:57 PM, bluesteel wrote:
At 11/3/2014 9:51:34 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/3/2014 9:48:39 PM, YYW wrote:
At 11/3/2014 9:45:12 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Also, I would not say that the instigator adjustment is "broken" or "flawed" but rather "outdated" and "obsolete." Now, we often set debates to be un-acceptable, so that we can control who we debate. At the time ELO was created, that was virtually never done. The adjustment in our debating practices has made something that was once needed, un-needed. And so long as we continue to do that and encourage new members to do it as well, I do agree that the instigator advantage can be removed for debates going forward.

So... you're going to remove it, then?

It's not my call. It hasn't been since the day it was implemented. I only created the formula and gave it to Juggle. They coded it and have since not adjusted it. I've pointed out examples where their code was wrong, and ways to improve it. Nothing happened. I am not the keeper of the code, merely the creator that has no control over the beast.

What are the other ways the code is messed up, besides the "open debate period" one already mentioned?

The actual formula is messed up. There was a team debate when they made new accounts, Team A and Team B. These two debated each other once, so the results should be easily calculated, but the change in ELO was not what it was supposed to be. I reported it to Juggle and got nothing from it. The problem is that the guy that coded it for us is no longer with Juggle and I think he may have done coding that only he could read. I think he Dennis Nedry'd it.

LOL.

I doubt it'd be that hard to fix. You just go to the part of the code with the formula and tweak it. Or I guess, the flaw probably isn't in the formula itself, in which case it would be really hard if he didn't do what programmers are supposed to do and leave comments in his code to explain what each part does. I can't imagine it's that complicated though. The code would basically just be: fetch current ELO score. Apply formula based on current ELO scores, win or loss in the debate, and instigator bonus/penalty. Update ELO scores.
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
Ore_Ele
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11/4/2014 12:12:57 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/3/2014 11:59:38 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I'm thinking it's time for a revolution.

I just walked in a circle around a drainage grate, does that count?
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
dylancatlow
Posts: 12,254
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11/4/2014 12:16:47 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/4/2014 12:12:57 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/3/2014 11:59:38 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I'm thinking it's time for a revolution.

I just walked in a circle around a drainage grate, does that count?

Liar. You didn't actually do that.
Ore_Ele
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11/4/2014 12:27:05 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/4/2014 12:16:47 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:12:57 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/3/2014 11:59:38 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I'm thinking it's time for a revolution.

I just walked in a circle around a drainage grate, does that count?

Liar. You didn't actually do that.

Pm me your cell phone number and I will send you the video of me doing it! Yes, I took a video of me doing it at the barn I work in.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
dylancatlow
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11/4/2014 12:29:06 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/4/2014 12:27:05 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:16:47 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:12:57 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/3/2014 11:59:38 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I'm thinking it's time for a revolution.

I just walked in a circle around a drainage grate, does that count?

Liar. You didn't actually do that.

Pm me your cell phone number and I will send you the video of me doing it! Yes, I took a video of me doing it at the barn I work in.

[Phone number removed by moderator]
dylancatlow
Posts: 12,254
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11/4/2014 12:38:30 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/4/2014 12:27:05 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:16:47 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:12:57 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/3/2014 11:59:38 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I'm thinking it's time for a revolution.

I just walked in a circle around a drainage grate, does that count?

Liar. You didn't actually do that.

Pm me your cell phone number and I will send you the video of me doing it! Yes, I took a video of me doing it at the barn I work in.

Apparently my phone is too shitty to open the file.
Ore_Ele
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11/4/2014 12:38:33 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/4/2014 12:29:06 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:27:05 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:16:47 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:12:57 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/3/2014 11:59:38 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I'm thinking it's time for a revolution.

I just walked in a circle around a drainage grate, does that count?

Liar. You didn't actually do that.

Pm me your cell phone number and I will send you the video of me doing it! Yes, I took a video of me doing it at the barn I work in.

[Phone number removed by moderator]

If you just had me text a random person a video of me revolving around a drainage grate, then you are evil... Evil and EPIC!
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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11/4/2014 12:40:43 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/4/2014 12:38:30 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:27:05 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:16:47 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:12:57 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/3/2014 11:59:38 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I'm thinking it's time for a revolution.

I just walked in a circle around a drainage grate, does that count?

Liar. You didn't actually do that.

Pm me your cell phone number and I will send you the video of me doing it! Yes, I took a video of me doing it at the barn I work in.

Apparently my phone is too shitty to open the file.

How about an email?
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
dylancatlow
Posts: 12,254
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11/4/2014 12:41:23 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/4/2014 12:40:43 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:38:30 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:27:05 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:16:47 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:12:57 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/3/2014 11:59:38 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I'm thinking it's time for a revolution.

I just walked in a circle around a drainage grate, does that count?

Liar. You didn't actually do that.

Pm me your cell phone number and I will send you the video of me doing it! Yes, I took a video of me doing it at the barn I work in.

Apparently my phone is too shitty to open the file.

How about an email?

catlow.dylan (at) gmail.com
dylancatlow
Posts: 12,254
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11/4/2014 12:42:45 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/4/2014 12:40:43 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:38:30 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:27:05 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:16:47 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:12:57 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/3/2014 11:59:38 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I'm thinking it's time for a revolution.

I just walked in a circle around a drainage grate, does that count?

Liar. You didn't actually do that.

Pm me your cell phone number and I will send you the video of me doing it! Yes, I took a video of me doing it at the barn I work in.

Apparently my phone is too shitty to open the file.

How about an email?

It's actually just catlowdylan
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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11/4/2014 12:48:34 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/4/2014 12:39:41 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
"Dylan, what are you doing."

"Oh, someone on the internet wants to show me a video of him walking in circles"

"..."

My wife and I are linked via the cloud and she is wondering why I took this video.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
dylancatlow
Posts: 12,254
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11/4/2014 12:57:59 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/4/2014 12:52:38 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Okay, one of those should get to you.

It's literally just you walking around a drainage grate...I don't know what I was expecting lol. I feel accomplished though.
Ore_Ele
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11/4/2014 1:03:52 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/4/2014 12:57:59 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:52:38 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Okay, one of those should get to you.


It's literally just you walking around a drainage grate...I don't know what I was expecting lol. I feel accomplished though.

I was rolling up the hose for watering the horses when I made the comment and thought to myself "if someone calls me out, I need video proof" so I looked around for something to walk around and that was right there.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Ore_Ele
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11/4/2014 1:15:20 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/4/2014 12:57:59 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:16:47 AM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 11/4/2014 12:12:57 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/3/2014 11:59:38 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I'm thinking it's time for a revolution.

I just walked in a circle around a drainage grate, does that count?

Liar. You didn't actually do that.
[after getting contact info and sending a video]
It's literally just you walking around a drainage grate...

lol, what were you expecting?
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"