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Resolutions I want to debate

ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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2/11/2015 5:44:52 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I don't have a whole lot of time over the next few weeks, but there's a lot of hot-button stuff I'm dying to debate, so I'm going to try to fit at least a few in. In order of priority, with my preferred positions (though, generally, I'm willing to play Devil's Advocate on almost anything):

Resolved: The FOMC should increase short-term interest rates in mid-2015 (CON)

Yup, I'm plugging this one once more...A guy can dream, right?

Resolved: Central banks should target nominal G.D.P. over inflation (PRO)

Also a bit wonky, but should become increasingly relevant over the next few years in particular.

Resolved: The U.S. economy is undergoing an era of secular stagnation (PRO)

This one is probably the *most* relevant as of right now, and the ramifications of this, if it should hold, are dire--in fact, it could change the way we view economic policy in its entirety.

Resolved: Corporations should be allowed to repatriate their offshore profits at no tax (CON)

This one is....a tad boring, but somewhat relevant since Rand Paul is pushing this (among other) terrible legislation. I think his proposal involves something like a 6 percent tax, so we can adjust the particulars of this resolution as needed. This is one I really would rather not want to play Devil's Advocate on.

Resolved: The U.S. Congress should pass a complete audit of the Federal Reserve (CON)

Another issue I'm not too thrilled about debating, and would probably not want to take PRO on. I wrote out a massive 6k character post on it earlier, if anyone cares to read it, so I guess I have some things to say about it.

If anyone's interested in one of these, or even a similar resolution, let me know!

~Joey
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
thett3
Posts: 14,344
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2/11/2015 5:46:06 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 2/11/2015 5:44:52 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
I don't have a whole lot of time over the next few weeks, but there's a lot of hot-button stuff I'm dying to debate, so I'm going to try to fit at least a few in. In order of priority, with my preferred positions (though, generally, I'm willing to play Devil's Advocate on almost anything):

Resolved: The FOMC should increase short-term interest rates in mid-2015 (CON)

Yup, I'm plugging this one once more...A guy can dream, right?

Resolved: Central banks should target nominal G.D.P. over inflation (PRO)

Also a bit wonky, but should become increasingly relevant over the next few years in particular.

Resolved: The U.S. economy is undergoing an era of secular stagnation (PRO)

This one is probably the *most* relevant as of right now, and the ramifications of this, if it should hold, are dire--in fact, it could change the way we view economic policy in its entirety.

What's secular stagnation?

Resolved: Corporations should be allowed to repatriate their offshore profits at no tax (CON)

This one is....a tad boring, but somewhat relevant since Rand Paul is pushing this (among other) terrible legislation. I think his proposal involves something like a 6 percent tax, so we can adjust the particulars of this resolution as needed. This is one I really would rather not want to play Devil's Advocate on.

Resolved: The U.S. Congress should pass a complete audit of the Federal Reserve (CON)

Another issue I'm not too thrilled about debating, and would probably not want to take PRO on. I wrote out a massive 6k character post on it earlier, if anyone cares to read it, so I guess I have some things to say about it.

If anyone's interested in one of these, or even a similar resolution, let me know!

~Joey
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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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2/11/2015 7:09:05 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 2/11/2015 5:46:06 PM, thett3 wrote:
What's secular stagnation?

The short answer is the topic of my honors thesis, lol.

The somewhat longer answer is--and there are different formulations of this, with slightly different causes and drastically different policy implications--that it's a hypothesis that slow growth in RGDP and RDGP per capita is here to stay, barring structural reform, due to demographic shifts.

The demand-side view, which Alvin Hansen suggested was the case in the 1930s, and that Larry Summers has taken up today, is the position that shifts such as a decline in population growth, falling relative cost of capital, decline in demand for debt-financed instruments, post-crisis risk aversion, and an outward shift in savings has reduced the amount of spending generated at every real interest rate--so the logic is that the "natural" rate necessary to generate enough demand for markets to equilibrate following real shocks is substantially lower than its historic average of around 3 to 5 percent--it could be, for instance, 0 or even negative (so, at a 2 percent inflation target, that's a a nominal rate of 2 percent or lower). The implication for this view is that either monetary policy stays more accommodative than usual--i.e., we take Larry's advice and "don't fire until we see the whites of inflation's eyes--or we find other ways to generate higher demand at every interest rate, such as, say, some sort of permanent fiscal stimulus. The caveat is the fact that zero rates ad infinitum tend to cause financial markets to get antsy, and reaching for yield may spark another asset bubble, so we need to be wary about how far we go--though disregarding the possibility of this hypothesis entirely could obviously be drastic, as it could by and of itself lead to the other formulation of stagnation.

The other formulation--and these are able to coincide, mind you--is the supply-side variation (caused by slowing population growth, declines in productivity, shrinking workforce due to hysteresis--which is exacerbated by the longevity of the recession, arguably a byproduct of an overly tight monetary policy)where the long-run aggregate supply curve has shifted back, so instead of achieving roughly 3 percent RGDP growth in the long run, we can only hit, let's say, 2 or 2.5 percent. Unlike the other version of stagnation where there's a cure in the form of persistent expansionary policy, this one's permanent barring, for instance, immigration reform or some form of jobs training programs to jump-start productivity.

^^^

Longer than I thought, but you knew I was going to write an essay, lol.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
lannan13
Posts: 23,062
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2/11/2015 9:16:28 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I'd have to think about the audit the fed debate. Rand Paul is my man and I've been highly interested in many of the things he does. I would have to read up on the pros and cons on it and get back to you on it.
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ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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2/11/2015 9:19:14 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 2/11/2015 9:16:28 PM, lannan13 wrote:
I'd have to think about the audit the fed debate. Rand Paul is my man and I've been highly interested in many of the things he does. I would have to read up on the pros and cons on it and get back to you on it.

Okey dokes.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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2/11/2015 9:23:36 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 2/11/2015 9:20:21 PM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
Just marry economics already.

Well, Ennie, a wise man whom I revere once said, "I'm married to my work; a girl would only be my mistress."

As I see it, economics and I have already strolled down the isle, eyes wide with possibilities, with the vigor needed to correct the wrong done to us by the economic illiterates of the world, of which there are far too many.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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EndarkenedRationalist
Posts: 14,201
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2/11/2015 9:25:04 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 2/11/2015 9:23:36 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/11/2015 9:20:21 PM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
Just marry economics already.

Well, Ennie, a wise man whom I revere once said, "I'm married to my work; a girl would only be my mistress."

Joseph Stalin?

As I see it, economics and I have already strolled down the isle, eyes wide with possibilities, with the vigor needed to correct the wrong done to us by the economic illiterates of the world, of which there are far too many.

Well, I suppose the need for such education is in...high demand.
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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2/11/2015 9:26:39 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 2/11/2015 9:25:04 PM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 2/11/2015 9:23:36 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/11/2015 9:20:21 PM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
Just marry economics already.

Well, Ennie, a wise man whom I revere once said, "I'm married to my work; a girl would only be my mistress."

Joseph Stalin?

No, lol. I'll give you a hint--he's Jewish, and rumor has he has a salamander fetish.

(I'm going to get crap for that, lol.)

As I see it, economics and I have already strolled down the isle, eyes wide with possibilities, with the vigor needed to correct the wrong done to us by the economic illiterates of the world, of which there are far too many.

Well, I suppose the need for such education is in...high demand.

High demand and low supply!
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
EndarkenedRationalist
Posts: 14,201
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2/11/2015 9:28:39 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 2/11/2015 9:26:39 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/11/2015 9:25:04 PM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 2/11/2015 9:23:36 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/11/2015 9:20:21 PM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
Just marry economics already.

Well, Ennie, a wise man whom I revere once said, "I'm married to my work; a girl would only be my mistress."

Joseph Stalin?

No, lol. I'll give you a hint--he's Jewish, and rumor has he has a salamander fetish.

So...Joseph Stalin?

(I'm going to get crap for that, lol.)

As I see it, economics and I have already strolled down the isle, eyes wide with possibilities, with the vigor needed to correct the wrong done to us by the economic illiterates of the world, of which there are far too many.

Well, I suppose the need for such education is in...high demand.

High demand and low supply!

Educating them would then be a great...service.
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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2/11/2015 9:29:28 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 2/11/2015 9:28:39 PM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:

So...Joseph Stalin?

Sure, lol.

(I'm going to get crap for that, lol.)

As I see it, economics and I have already strolled down the isle, eyes wide with possibilities, with the vigor needed to correct the wrong done to us by the economic illiterates of the world, of which there are far too many.

Well, I suppose the need for such education is in...high demand.

High demand and low supply!

Educating them would then be a great...service.

Oh, indubitably.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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2/11/2015 10:34:15 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 2/11/2015 5:44:52 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
I don't have a whole lot of time over the next few weeks, but there's a lot of hot-button stuff I'm dying to debate, so I'm going to try to fit at least a few in. In order of priority, with my preferred positions (though, generally, I'm willing to play Devil's Advocate on almost anything):

Resolved: The FOMC should increase short-term interest rates in mid-2015 (CON)

Yup, I'm plugging this one once more...A guy can dream, right?

Resolved: Central banks should target nominal G.D.P. over inflation (PRO)

Also a bit wonky, but should become increasingly relevant over the next few years in particular.

: Resolved: The U.S. economy is undergoing an era of secular stagnation (PRO)

How is this debatable?
http://1.bp.blogspot.com...


This one is probably the *most* relevant as of right now, and the ramifications of this, if it should hold, are dire--in fact, it could change the way we view economic policy in its entirety.

Resolved: Corporations should be allowed to repatriate their offshore profits at no tax (CON)

This one is....a tad boring, but somewhat relevant since Rand Paul is pushing this (among other) terrible legislation. I think his proposal involves something like a 6 percent tax, so we can adjust the particulars of this resolution as needed. This is one I really would rather not want to play Devil's Advocate on.

Resolved: The U.S. Congress should pass a complete audit of the Federal Reserve (CON)

Another issue I'm not too thrilled about debating, and would probably not want to take PRO on. I wrote out a massive 6k character post on it earlier, if anyone cares to read it, so I guess I have some things to say about it.

If anyone's interested in one of these, or even a similar resolution, let me know!

~Joey
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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2/12/2015 12:28:21 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 2/11/2015 10:34:15 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 2/11/2015 5:44:52 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
I don't have a whole lot of time over the next few weeks, but there's a lot of hot-button stuff I'm dying to debate, so I'm going to try to fit at least a few in. In order of priority, with my preferred positions (though, generally, I'm willing to play Devil's Advocate on almost anything):

Resolved: The FOMC should increase short-term interest rates in mid-2015 (CON)

Yup, I'm plugging this one once more...A guy can dream, right?

Resolved: Central banks should target nominal G.D.P. over inflation (PRO)

Also a bit wonky, but should become increasingly relevant over the next few years in particular.

: Resolved: The U.S. economy is undergoing an era of secular stagnation (PRO)

How is this debatable?
http://1.bp.blogspot.com...


Well, mostly because that graph doesn't including the Great Depression, which was the last comparable systemic banking crisis, which tend to result in about five years of declining employment (Rogoff and Reinhart, 2009).
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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2/12/2015 8:14:56 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 2/12/2015 12:28:21 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/11/2015 10:34:15 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 2/11/2015 5:44:52 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
I don't have a whole lot of time over the next few weeks, but there's a lot of hot-button stuff I'm dying to debate, so I'm going to try to fit at least a few in. In order of priority, with my preferred positions (though, generally, I'm willing to play Devil's Advocate on almost anything):

Resolved: The FOMC should increase short-term interest rates in mid-2015 (CON)

Yup, I'm plugging this one once more...A guy can dream, right?

Resolved: Central banks should target nominal G.D.P. over inflation (PRO)

Also a bit wonky, but should become increasingly relevant over the next few years in particular.

: Resolved: The U.S. economy is undergoing an era of secular stagnation (PRO)

How is this debatable?
http://1.bp.blogspot.com...


Well, mostly because that graph doesn't including the Great Depression, which was the last comparable systemic banking crisis, which tend to result in about five years of declining employment (Rogoff and Reinhart, 2009).

True. But I guess it depends what you compare it to :P
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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2/12/2015 8:18:56 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 2/12/2015 8:14:56 AM, 16kadams wrote:
At 2/12/2015 12:28:21 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/11/2015 10:34:15 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 2/11/2015 5:44:52 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
I don't have a whole lot of time over the next few weeks, but there's a lot of hot-button stuff I'm dying to debate, so I'm going to try to fit at least a few in. In order of priority, with my preferred positions (though, generally, I'm willing to play Devil's Advocate on almost anything):

Resolved: The FOMC should increase short-term interest rates in mid-2015 (CON)

Yup, I'm plugging this one once more...A guy can dream, right?

Resolved: Central banks should target nominal G.D.P. over inflation (PRO)

Also a bit wonky, but should become increasingly relevant over the next few years in particular.

: Resolved: The U.S. economy is undergoing an era of secular stagnation (PRO)

How is this debatable?
http://1.bp.blogspot.com...


Well, mostly because that graph doesn't including the Great Depression, which was the last comparable systemic banking crisis, which tend to result in about five years of declining employment (Rogoff and Reinhart, 2009).

True. But I guess it depends what you compare it to :P

Yeah, very true - though the stagnation hypothesis doesn't look at employment numbers, per se, though those tend to correspond to weak RGDP numbers. I think the graph you used referred to monthly nonfarm payrolls, which is a much better measure than the unemployment rate - because only God knows where the "natural" rate actually is - but that itself can be potentially misleading because businesses tend to invest in capital over labor amid recessions because they can't cut nominal wages (and the relative cost of capital has been plummeting, anyway) so we may not end up with a "jobless" recovery, but at least something that closely resembles it, for all intents and purposes.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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2/12/2015 8:32:20 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 2/12/2015 8:18:56 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/12/2015 8:14:56 AM, 16kadams wrote:
At 2/12/2015 12:28:21 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/11/2015 10:34:15 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 2/11/2015 5:44:52 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
I don't have a whole lot of time over the next few weeks, but there's a lot of hot-button stuff I'm dying to debate, so I'm going to try to fit at least a few in. In order of priority, with my preferred positions (though, generally, I'm willing to play Devil's Advocate on almost anything):

Resolved: The FOMC should increase short-term interest rates in mid-2015 (CON)

Yup, I'm plugging this one once more...A guy can dream, right?

Resolved: Central banks should target nominal G.D.P. over inflation (PRO)

Also a bit wonky, but should become increasingly relevant over the next few years in particular.

: Resolved: The U.S. economy is undergoing an era of secular stagnation (PRO)

How is this debatable?
http://1.bp.blogspot.com...


Well, mostly because that graph doesn't including the Great Depression, which was the last comparable systemic banking crisis, which tend to result in about five years of declining employment (Rogoff and Reinhart, 2009).

True. But I guess it depends what you compare it to :P

Yeah, very true - though the stagnation hypothesis doesn't look at employment numbers, per se, though those tend to correspond to weak RGDP numbers. I think the graph you used referred to monthly nonfarm payrolls, which is a much better measure than the unemployment rate - because only God knows where the "natural" rate actually is - but that itself can be potentially misleading because businesses tend to invest in capital over labor amid recessions because they can't cut nominal wages (and the relative cost of capital has been plummeting, anyway) so we may not end up with a "jobless" recovery, but at least something that closely resembles it, for all intents and purposes.

Yes! And of course the graph used a better measure, it was made by economist John Lott not anti Obama farmer Joe Schmo :P
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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2/12/2015 8:35:44 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 2/12/2015 8:32:20 AM, 16kadams wrote:
At 2/12/2015 8:18:56 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/12/2015 8:14:56 AM, 16kadams wrote:
At 2/12/2015 12:28:21 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 2/11/2015 10:34:15 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 2/11/2015 5:44:52 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
I don't have a whole lot of time over the next few weeks, but there's a lot of hot-button stuff I'm dying to debate, so I'm going to try to fit at least a few in. In order of priority, with my preferred positions (though, generally, I'm willing to play Devil's Advocate on almost anything):

Resolved: The FOMC should increase short-term interest rates in mid-2015 (CON)

Yup, I'm plugging this one once more...A guy can dream, right?

Resolved: Central banks should target nominal G.D.P. over inflation (PRO)

Also a bit wonky, but should become increasingly relevant over the next few years in particular.

: Resolved: The U.S. economy is undergoing an era of secular stagnation (PRO)

How is this debatable?
http://1.bp.blogspot.com...


Well, mostly because that graph doesn't including the Great Depression, which was the last comparable systemic banking crisis, which tend to result in about five years of declining employment (Rogoff and Reinhart, 2009).

True. But I guess it depends what you compare it to :P

Yeah, very true - though the stagnation hypothesis doesn't look at employment numbers, per se, though those tend to correspond to weak RGDP numbers. I think the graph you used referred to monthly nonfarm payrolls, which is a much better measure than the unemployment rate - because only God knows where the "natural" rate actually is - but that itself can be potentially misleading because businesses tend to invest in capital over labor amid recessions because they can't cut nominal wages (and the relative cost of capital has been plummeting, anyway) so we may not end up with a "jobless" recovery, but at least something that closely resembles it, for all intents and purposes.

Yes! And of course the graph used a better measure, it was made by economist John Lott not anti Obama farmer Joe Schmo :P

Ahh, lol. Well, I could go on for days about what I think about John Lott. I've only seen him talk about economics twice. One was his claim that there's no historic relationship between poor weather and weak growth - which I somewhat agree with, though it certainly could impact exports and inventory accumulation, which were terrible in 2014:Q1 - though there has been research since suggesting that a weather event could in fact throw off growth. The second was his contention that government deficits "crowd out" private investment, but that just can't be the case with nominal rates pinned at zero. So, suffice it to say - and even without acknowledging all the gun stuff he's done - I'm not the biggest fan, lol.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah