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Pro vs. Con: Who is more likely to win?

zmikecuber
Posts: 4,093
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7/10/2016 2:54:25 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
From the same data that I calculated the 7-point vs. select winner stats, I also calculated this (from 2546 debates, not the 4000 some because the rest had ended in ties).

Pro wins: 47% of the time
Con wins: 53% of the time

Pretty damn close, but perhaps voters see Pro as carrying more of a burden of proof than Con. It certainly is easier to pick holes in someone else's arguments than to make your own water-tight case.

Anyhow, considering the values are just "Pro" or "Con" I can't really calculate standard deviation or do any other statistical analysis, since it's not numbers...
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PetersSmith
Posts: 5,860
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7/10/2016 2:56:31 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 7/10/2016 2:54:25 AM, zmikecuber wrote:
From the same data that I calculated the 7-point vs. select winner stats, I also calculated this (from 2546 debates, not the 4000 some because the rest had ended in ties).

Pro wins: 47% of the time
Con wins: 53% of the time

Pretty damn close, but perhaps voters see Pro as carrying more of a burden of proof than Con. It certainly is easier to pick holes in someone else's arguments than to make your own water-tight case.

Anyhow, considering the values are just "Pro" or "Con" I can't really calculate standard deviation or do any other statistical analysis, since it's not numbers...

Did you actually take the time to go through 2546 debates to see who won?
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Emmarie
Posts: 1,907
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7/10/2016 2:57:44 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 7/10/2016 2:54:25 AM, zmikecuber wrote:
From the same data that I calculated the 7-point vs. select winner stats, I also calculated this (from 2546 debates, not the 4000 some because the rest had ended in ties).

Pro wins: 47% of the time
Con wins: 53% of the time

Pretty damn close, but perhaps voters see Pro as carrying more of a burden of proof than Con. It certainly is easier to pick holes in someone else's arguments than to make your own water-tight case.
Thanks for the info!


Anyhow, considering the values are just "Pro" or "Con" I can't really calculate standard deviation or do any other statistical analysis, since it's not numbers...
zmikecuber
Posts: 4,093
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7/10/2016 2:59:15 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 7/10/2016 2:56:31 AM, PetersSmith wrote:
At 7/10/2016 2:54:25 AM, zmikecuber wrote:
From the same data that I calculated the 7-point vs. select winner stats, I also calculated this (from 2546 debates, not the 4000 some because the rest had ended in ties).

Pro wins: 47% of the time
Con wins: 53% of the time

Pretty damn close, but perhaps voters see Pro as carrying more of a burden of proof than Con. It certainly is easier to pick holes in someone else's arguments than to make your own water-tight case.

Anyhow, considering the values are just "Pro" or "Con" I can't really calculate standard deviation or do any other statistical analysis, since it's not numbers...

Did you actually take the time to go through 2546 debates to see who won?

I used a web-scraper to gather data... Let it run for about 20 hours, and it got all that. I've done this like five times, and I have amassed alot of data so far on how the website has functioned on the past.

I plan to eventually post a more thorough analysis so that we can come up with a plan for DDO if Juggle ever returns to fix the website...

Although Airmax already is familiar with alot of this, I really wanted to analyze the numbers myself and eventually come to find the root causes of why voting is at an all-time low, and to see what we can do to bring it back up.
"Delete your fvcking sig" -1hard

"primal man had the habit, when he came into contact with fire, of satisfying the infantile desire connected with it, by putting it out with a stream of his urine... Putting out the fire by micturating was therefore a kind of sexual act with a male, an enjoyment of sexual potency in a homosexual competition."
Wylted
Posts: 21,167
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7/10/2016 3:03:58 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 7/10/2016 2:54:25 AM, zmikecuber wrote:
From the same data that I calculated the 7-point vs. select winner stats, I also calculated this (from 2546 debates, not the 4000 some because the rest had ended in ties).

Pro wins: 47% of the time
Con wins: 53% of the time

Pretty damn close, but perhaps voters see Pro as carrying more of a burden of proof than Con. It certainly is easier to pick holes in someone else's arguments than to make your own water-tight case.

Anyhow, considering the values are just "Pro" or "Con" I can't really calculate standard deviation or do any other statistical analysis, since it's not numbers...

If you discount noob snipes, I bet pro is easier to win
zmikecuber
Posts: 4,093
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7/10/2016 3:06:31 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 7/10/2016 3:03:58 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 7/10/2016 2:54:25 AM, zmikecuber wrote:
From the same data that I calculated the 7-point vs. select winner stats, I also calculated this (from 2546 debates, not the 4000 some because the rest had ended in ties).

Pro wins: 47% of the time
Con wins: 53% of the time

Pretty damn close, but perhaps voters see Pro as carrying more of a burden of proof than Con. It certainly is easier to pick holes in someone else's arguments than to make your own water-tight case.

Anyhow, considering the values are just "Pro" or "Con" I can't really calculate standard deviation or do any other statistical analysis, since it's not numbers...

If you discount noob snipes, I bet pro is easier to win

I was also thinking this, but this assumes that when noobs make debates, they automatically take the Pro position. Is that the case?
"Delete your fvcking sig" -1hard

"primal man had the habit, when he came into contact with fire, of satisfying the infantile desire connected with it, by putting it out with a stream of his urine... Putting out the fire by micturating was therefore a kind of sexual act with a male, an enjoyment of sexual potency in a homosexual competition."
Diqiucun_Cunmin
Posts: 2,710
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7/10/2016 6:33:36 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 7/10/2016 3:06:31 AM, zmikecuber wrote:
At 7/10/2016 3:03:58 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 7/10/2016 2:54:25 AM, zmikecuber wrote:
From the same data that I calculated the 7-point vs. select winner stats, I also calculated this (from 2546 debates, not the 4000 some because the rest had ended in ties).

Pro wins: 47% of the time
Con wins: 53% of the time

Pretty damn close, but perhaps voters see Pro as carrying more of a burden of proof than Con. It certainly is easier to pick holes in someone else's arguments than to make your own water-tight case.

Anyhow, considering the values are just "Pro" or "Con" I can't really calculate standard deviation or do any other statistical analysis, since it's not numbers...

If you discount noob snipes, I bet pro is easier to win

I was also thinking this, but this assumes that when noobs make debates, they automatically take the Pro position. Is that the case?

That takes data scraping to find out ;)
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fire_wings
Posts: 5,563
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7/10/2016 9:58:25 AM
Posted: 5 months ago
At 7/10/2016 2:54:25 AM, zmikecuber wrote:
From the same data that I calculated the 7-point vs. select winner stats, I also calculated this (from 2546 debates, not the 4000 some because the rest had ended in ties).

Pro wins: 47% of the time
Con wins: 53% of the time

Pretty damn close, but perhaps voters see Pro as carrying more of a burden of proof than Con. It certainly is easier to pick holes in someone else's arguments than to make your own water-tight case.

Anyhow, considering the values are just "Pro" or "Con" I can't really calculate standard deviation or do any other statistical analysis, since it's not numbers...

this is because of vi_spex
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Ragnar
Posts: 1,658
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7/10/2016 3:43:05 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
Please have it done for instigator vs contender as well, those two things could lead to an interesting comparison.

Also if there's a way to have it exclude forfeited debates, and/or any debates from certain members (vi-spex, lord-Megatron, that one religious mockery guy).
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