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Playing the Stock Market

Meatros
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5/17/2011 6:39:11 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
Anyone else play in the stock market? I'm not talking about a 529 or a 401k.

If so, what strategy do you use?

Currently I seem to be losing money, which is okay, I suppose, since I'm only using money I don't need.

Still, I'd like to be making money again.

I play pinchers.

Anyone else?
askbob
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5/17/2011 3:25:49 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/17/2011 6:39:11 AM, Meatros wrote:
Anyone else play in the stock market? I'm not talking about a 529 or a 401k.

If so, what strategy do you use?

Currently I seem to be losing money, which is okay, I suppose, since I'm only using money I don't need.

Still, I'd like to be making money again.

I play pinchers.

Anyone else?

I opened my Roth IRA when I was 18 in highschool.

I've made 40% avg per year for the past three years

I've made my money in REITS through 3% dividends paid quarterly as well as significant appreciation in the value.

I make under 5k per year so i've paid no taxes (federal) on my income, and will have to pay no taxes on my interest compounded out 30 years.

I chose REITs (mainly retail) because after the crash they were undervalued and had a good chance of recovering in value. That prediction proved to be true.

Currently I am

50% in SPG
25% in VNQ
25% in VWO

I mainly invests in ETFs for the diversification and for the lower expense ratio then indexes. They are also no-load at vanguard with no fees other than the fund fee typically of .25%.

I choose SPG (stock) because it had a higher beta than VNQ and a higher dividend yield.
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Meatros
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5/18/2011 7:22:41 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
askbob wrote: "I opened my Roth IRA when I was 18 in highschool."

Wish I had this kind of foresight.

askbob wrote: "I've made 40% avg per year for the past three years

I've made my money in REITS through 3% dividends paid quarterly as well as significant appreciation in the value.

I make under 5k per year so i've paid no taxes (federal) on my income, and will have to pay no taxes on my interest compounded out 30 years."


I'm not sure I follow you - you make under 5K a year *total* or under 5k from the markets?

I made 5k from the markets last year (roughly) in addition to my regular income and I had to pay something like 25% on it.

askbob wrote: "I chose REITs (mainly retail) because after the crash they were undervalued and had a good chance of recovering in value. That prediction proved to be true.

Currently I am

50% in SPG
25% in VNQ
25% in VWO

I mainly invests in ETFs for the diversification and for the lower expense ratio then indexes. They are also no-load at vanguard with no fees other than the fund fee typically of .25%.

I choose SPG (stock) because it had a higher beta than VNQ and a higher dividend yield."


I don't have enough in the market to make dividends worth it, honestly. I hope to start doing this in the future though, when and if I accumulate anything substantial.

Right now I'm only using throw away money, which is why I'm chasing pincher plays.
askbob
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5/18/2011 11:14:25 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
What do you mean by pincher?
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kohai -If you're the owner, then do something useful like ip block him and get us away from juggle and on a dofferent host!
Me -haha you apparently don't know my history
Kohai - Maybe not, but that doesn't matter! You shoukd still listen to your community and quit being a tyrrant!
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Kohai - then u misrepresented yourself by impersonating the owner—a violation of the tos
Meatros
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5/18/2011 12:06:23 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/18/2011 11:14:25 AM, askbob wrote:
What do you mean by pincher?

Bottom plays. Bounce plays.

I can link to a few things if you are interested and I wrote up a 'how to' document in word about a year ago.

I had moderate success with them, although this year...not so much...So I'm not at the actual stage of endorsing them.
askbob
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5/18/2011 12:52:39 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/18/2011 12:06:23 PM, Meatros wrote:
At 5/18/2011 11:14:25 AM, askbob wrote:
What do you mean by pincher?

Bottom plays. Bounce plays.

Are you referring to options?
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kohai -If you're the owner, then do something useful like ip block him and get us away from juggle and on a dofferent host!
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Kohai - Maybe not, but that doesn't matter! You shoukd still listen to your community and quit being a tyrrant!
Me - i was being completely sarcastic
Kohai - then u misrepresented yourself by impersonating the owner—a violation of the tos
Meatros
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5/18/2011 1:06:35 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
No, not options.

Take a peek - it's a type of technical analysis:
http://investorshub.advfn.com...#

If you are interested, PM me your email address and I'll send you the write up I did. It's basic and there are better ones out there, so keep that in mind.
askbob
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5/18/2011 1:15:01 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/18/2011 1:06:35 PM, Meatros wrote:
Take a peek - it's a type of technical analysis:

LMAO, sorry the EMH came out years and years ago bro.
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kohai -If you're the owner, then do something useful like ip block him and get us away from juggle and on a dofferent host!
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Kohai - Maybe not, but that doesn't matter! You shoukd still listen to your community and quit being a tyrrant!
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Kohai - then u misrepresented yourself by impersonating the owner—a violation of the tos
Meatros
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5/18/2011 1:26:35 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/18/2011 1:15:01 PM, askbob wrote:
At 5/18/2011 1:06:35 PM, Meatros wrote:
Take a peek - it's a type of technical analysis:

LMAO, sorry the EMH came out years and years ago bro.

EMH?
askbob
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5/18/2011 2:15:56 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Efficient Market Hypothesis
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Meatros
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5/18/2011 2:30:48 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/18/2011 2:15:56 PM, askbob wrote:
Efficient Market Hypothesis

I'm doing a scan of the wiki (which I suspect would be a poor substitute for actually studying the hypothesis) and I'm not entirely seeing the connection - I recognize what I'm doing is essentially gambling.

Obviously my hope is that it's better then a 50-50 shot. Last year it was for me. This year, not so much.

I'm keeping track of my trades so that I can keep track and see if it's worth it.
askbob
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5/18/2011 8:03:13 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/18/2011 2:30:48 PM, Meatrohttp://www.debate.org... wrote:
Obviously my hope is that it's better then a 50-50 shot. Last year it was for me. This year, not so much.

The Efficient market hypothesis states that you have a 50-50 shot
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kohai -If you're the owner, then do something useful like ip block him and get us away from juggle and on a dofferent host!
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Meatros
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5/18/2011 9:05:56 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/18/2011 8:03:13 PM, askbob wrote:
At 5/18/2011 2:30:48 PM, Meatrohttp://www.debate.org... wrote:
Obviously my hope is that it's better then a 50-50 shot. Last year it was for me. This year, not so much.

The Efficient market hypothesis states that you have a 50-50 shot

Hmmm.... Sh!t... :-)
askbob
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5/18/2011 10:56:38 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Weak EMH claims that prices on traded assets (e.g., stocks, bonds, or property) already reflect all past publicly available information.

Semi-strong EMH claims both that prices reflect all publicly available information and that prices instantly change to reflect new public information.

Strong EMH additionally claims that prices instantly reflect even hidden or "insider" information. There is evidence for and against the weak and semi-strong EMHs, while there is powerful evidence against strong EMH.

Since weak is the lowest form of the hypothesis, it still negates technical analysis.
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kohai -If you're the owner, then do something useful like ip block him and get us away from juggle and on a dofferent host!
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askbob
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5/18/2011 10:58:45 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
your odds aren't really 50-50 either just whatever odds there are of randomly picking one or two stocks (or however many you choose) and having them have an above average performance.

Plus with only picking a few stocks vs. an index or ETF, you're paying higher commissions via expense ratio if you're trading with low volume.

Additionally you have higher idiosyncratic risk (firm specific risk) due to low diversification.
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kohai -If you're the owner, then do something useful like ip block him and get us away from juggle and on a dofferent host!
Me -haha you apparently don't know my history
Kohai - Maybe not, but that doesn't matter! You shoukd still listen to your community and quit being a tyrrant!
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Kohai - then u misrepresented yourself by impersonating the owner—a violation of the tos
mongoose
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5/18/2011 11:09:49 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
I don't think it's possible to beat the market, because you can NEVER have more information than them.
It is odd when one's capacity for compassion is measured not in what he is willing to do by his own time, effort, and property, but what he will force others to do with their own property instead.
askbob
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5/18/2011 11:11:55 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/18/2011 11:09:49 PM, mongoose wrote:
I don't think it's possible to beat the market, because you can NEVER have more information than them.

yup, that's essentially the theory. You can only choose companies (or with ETFs and indexes, areas of the economy) that are undervalued based upon their fundamentals.
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kohai -If you're the owner, then do something useful like ip block him and get us away from juggle and on a dofferent host!
Me -haha you apparently don't know my history
Kohai - Maybe not, but that doesn't matter! You shoukd still listen to your community and quit being a tyrrant!
Me - i was being completely sarcastic
Kohai - then u misrepresented yourself by impersonating the owner—a violation of the tos
Meatros
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5/19/2011 5:49:21 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/18/2011 10:56:38 PM, askbob wrote:


Since weak is the lowest form of the hypothesis, it still negates technical analysis.

I don't follow - and it's probably because I'm still relatively ignorant about the market - but if all past knowledge is factored in, then why wouldn't bounce plays work? Currently, this years track record for me provides empirical data that it doesn't/hasn't been working (last year was great - maybe because of the recovery?), but if the market has factored in all past data, all the "selling" has occurred as a result, then why wouldn't you expect a pop? Provided bankruptcy didn't occur or share dilution.
askbob
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5/19/2011 11:13:37 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/19/2011 5:49:21 AM, Meatros wrote:
if all past knowledge is factored in, then why wouldn't bounce plays work?

All technical analysis relies on past results. Since past results are already factored into the current price, attempting to find some advantage becomes useless.

Currently, this years track record for me provides empirical data that it doesn't/hasn't been working (last year was great - maybe because of the recovery?),

A rising tide lifts all boats

but if the market has factored in all past data, all the "selling" has occurred as a result, then why wouldn't you expect a pop? Provided bankruptcy didn't occur or share dilution

Why would you expect a pop is a better question. All the selling has occurred, everyone is aware of all the selling and possibly could be predicting a "pop" as well. There are people at Goldman Sachs who do the same thing and have faster access to the market with more funds. Therefore even under the assumption that the theory is 100% correct (which its not), everyone is aware of the trick and takes advantage of it as all the selling is occurring to gain from the pop. Therefore by the time the selling has stopped buying has been occurring to stop the selling from going below the popping level in order to take advantage of the pop profit.
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kohai -If you're the owner, then do something useful like ip block him and get us away from juggle and on a dofferent host!
Me -haha you apparently don't know my history
Kohai - Maybe not, but that doesn't matter! You shoukd still listen to your community and quit being a tyrrant!
Me - i was being completely sarcastic
Kohai - then u misrepresented yourself by impersonating the owner—a violation of the tos
askbob
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5/19/2011 11:14:07 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
To read more about the negation of technical analysis

See: http://www.investopedia.com...
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kohai -If you're the owner, then do something useful like ip block him and get us away from juggle and on a dofferent host!
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Kohai - then u misrepresented yourself by impersonating the owner—a violation of the tos
Meatros
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5/19/2011 5:39:24 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/19/2011 11:13:37 AM, askbob wrote:
At 5/19/2011 5:49:21 AM, Meatros wrote:
if all past knowledge is factored in, then why wouldn't bounce plays work?

All technical analysis relies on past results. Since past results are already factored into the current price, attempting to find some advantage becomes useless.

Currently, this years track record for me provides empirical data that it doesn't/hasn't been working (last year was great - maybe because of the recovery?),

A rising tide lifts all boats


Yeah, I did have that thought floating in the back of my head.

but if the market has factored in all past data, all the "selling" has occurred as a result, then why wouldn't you expect a pop? Provided bankruptcy didn't occur or share dilution

Why would you expect a pop is a better question. All the selling has occurred, everyone is aware of all the selling and possibly could be predicting a "pop" as well. There are people at Goldman Sachs who do the same thing and have faster access to the market with more funds. Therefore even under the assumption that the theory is 100% correct (which its not), everyone is aware of the trick and takes advantage of it as all the selling is occurring to gain from the pop. Therefore by the time the selling has stopped buying has been occurring to stop the selling from going below the popping level in order to take advantage of the pop profit.


Trying to time a bottom would be very problematic (maybe impossible for our average, non GS investor). So I don't think that I could hit the absolute bottom of a hard drop. That said, I might be able to get pretty close to the bottom. Then sell on the way up (if it does go up, which is not a given).

I feel the familiar pull between reason and emotion. I hear what you are saying (and I appreciate it), but like the stupid gambler sitting at the slot machine, I feel like I have to learn the lesson for myself.

I'm going to keep track and see where I land after 10 trades. An empirical test. This isn't my savings, this isn't a ton of money, and (primarily based on what you've said AND my current track record) I'm not going to put any more in (well, on technical analysis, anyway, I have other savings as I said).

Currently, I'm 1 "win" and "3" losses.

I'll keep you all posted (in case you are interested).
askbob
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5/19/2011 7:36:57 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/19/2011 5:39:24 PM, Meatros wrote:
At 5/19/2011 11:13:37 AM, askbob wrote:
At 5/19/2011 5:49:21 AM, Meatros wrote:
if all past knowledge is factored in, then why wouldn't bounce plays work?

All technical analysis relies on past results. Since past results are already factored into the current price, attempting to find some advantage becomes useless.

Currently, this years track record for me provides empirical data that it doesn't/hasn't been working (last year was great - maybe because of the recovery?),

A rising tide lifts all boats


Yeah, I did have that thought floating in the back of my head.

but if the market has factored in all past data, all the "selling" has occurred as a result, then why wouldn't you expect a pop? Provided bankruptcy didn't occur or share dilution

Why would you expect a pop is a better question. All the selling has occurred, everyone is aware of all the selling and possibly could be predicting a "pop" as well. There are people at Goldman Sachs who do the same thing and have faster access to the market with more funds. Therefore even under the assumption that the theory is 100% correct (which its not), everyone is aware of the trick and takes advantage of it as all the selling is occurring to gain from the pop. Therefore by the time the selling has stopped buying has been occurring to stop the selling from going below the popping level in order to take advantage of the pop profit.


Trying to time a bottom would be very problematic (maybe impossible for our average, non GS investor). So I don't think that I could hit the absolute bottom of a hard drop. That said, I might be able to get pretty close to the bottom. Then sell on the way up (if it does go up, which is not a given).

I feel the familiar pull between reason and emotion. I hear what you are saying (and I appreciate it), but like the stupid gambler sitting at the slot machine, I feel like I have to learn the lesson for myself.

I'm going to keep track and see where I land after 10 trades. An empirical test. This isn't my savings, this isn't a ton of money, and (primarily based on what you've said AND my current track record) I'm not going to put any more in (well, on technical analysis, anyway, I have other savings as I said).

Currently, I'm 1 "win" and "3" losses.

I'll keep you all posted (in case you are interested).

Divide by the average of the S&P
Me -Phil left the site in my charge. I have a recorded phone conversation to prove it.
kohai -If you're the owner, then do something useful like ip block him and get us away from juggle and on a dofferent host!
Me -haha you apparently don't know my history
Kohai - Maybe not, but that doesn't matter! You shoukd still listen to your community and quit being a tyrrant!
Me - i was being completely sarcastic
Kohai - then u misrepresented yourself by impersonating the owner—a violation of the tos