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Economy is going to get worse before better

HisFlyness
Posts: 17
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6/15/2011 7:20:31 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
I don't think the economy is going to get any better before it gets a lot worse. Nothing has been done to ensure long-term fiscal health. The deficit and budget are both out of control, and everything Obama is putting into place in terms of employment and stimulus are short gains at best. I think he's just trying to get re-elected. What we need are long-term plans to get us less dependent on foreign investments and out of China's pocket.
"Not All Those Who Wander Are Lost." - Tolkein...or Babe Ruth. One of those guys.
askbob
Posts: 7,254
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6/15/2011 7:38:54 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 6/15/2011 7:20:31 PM, HisFlyness wrote:
I don't think the economy is going to get any better before it gets a lot worse. Nothing has been done to ensure long-term fiscal health. The deficit and budget are both out of control, and everything Obama is putting into place in terms of employment and stimulus are short gains at best. I think he's just trying to get re-elected. What we need are long-term plans to get us less dependent on foreign investments and out of China's pocket.

1. You measure debt as a % of real GDP

2. anyone who's following anything knows the Eurozone is on the brink of collapse which results in a stronger dollar which has been seen in the past few days in the face of QE2 which really says something. That's why gas prices are down recently

3. Since we have a stronger dollar that means interest rates are going up which means yields are going down meaning that the borrowing costs are below inflation which means that for now it's beneficial to be in a debt position vs. an equity position.

4. Budget fixes will come but not until after the election where we'll be due for another recession. But as for now and the next 2-3 years, things are going to look up and I'm riding the market up to the peaks.
Me -Phil left the site in my charge. I have a recorded phone conversation to prove it.
kohai -If you're the owner, then do something useful like ip block him and get us away from juggle and on a dofferent host!
Me -haha you apparently don't know my history
Kohai - Maybe not, but that doesn't matter! You shoukd still listen to your community and quit being a tyrrant!
Me - i was being completely sarcastic
Kohai - then u misrepresented yourself by impersonating the owner—a violation of the tos
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,294
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6/16/2011 12:25:09 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 6/15/2011 7:38:54 PM, askbob wrote:
At 6/15/2011 7:20:31 PM, HisFlyness wrote:
I don't think the economy is going to get any better before it gets a lot worse. Nothing has been done to ensure long-term fiscal health. The deficit and budget are both out of control, and everything Obama is putting into place in terms of employment and stimulus are short gains at best. I think he's just trying to get re-elected. What we need are long-term plans to get us less dependent on foreign investments and out of China's pocket.

1. You measure debt as a % of real GDP

2. anyone who's following anything knows the Eurozone is on the brink of collapse which results in a stronger dollar which has been seen in the past few days in the face of QE2 which really says something. That's why gas prices are down recently

3. Since we have a stronger dollar that means interest rates are going up which means yields are going down meaning that the borrowing costs are below inflation which means that for now it's beneficial to be in a debt position vs. an equity position.

4. Budget fixes will come but not until after the election where we'll be due for another recession. But as for now and the next 2-3 years, things are going to look up and I'm riding the market up to the peaks.

That's a real shame when our fail is not as bad as Europe.
innomen
Posts: 10,052
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6/18/2011 11:01:10 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 6/16/2011 12:25:09 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 6/15/2011 7:38:54 PM, askbob wrote:
At 6/15/2011 7:20:31 PM, HisFlyness wrote:
I don't think the economy is going to get any better before it gets a lot worse. Nothing has been done to ensure long-term fiscal health. The deficit and budget are both out of control, and everything Obama is putting into place in terms of employment and stimulus are short gains at best. I think he's just trying to get re-elected. What we need are long-term plans to get us less dependent on foreign investments and out of China's pocket.

1. You measure debt as a % of real GDP

2. anyone who's following anything knows the Eurozone is on the brink of collapse which results in a stronger dollar which has been seen in the past few days in the face of QE2 which really says something. That's why gas prices are down recently

3. Since we have a stronger dollar that means interest rates are going up which means yields are going down meaning that the borrowing costs are below inflation which means that for now it's beneficial to be in a debt position vs. an equity position.

4. Budget fixes will come but not until after the election where we'll be due for another recession. But as for now and the next 2-3 years, things are going to look up and I'm riding the market up to the peaks.

That's a real shame when our fail is not as bad as Europe.

And yet the Euro is trading at 1.43 over the dollar, which i am still not sure where the Euro is getting its strength.

My business is sort of a bell-weather of the entire economy. Our business is directly correlated to the productivity of the overall business climate. Toward the end of Q4 of 2010 i saw some small signs if growth through industry investment in both capital and people, but then in April something happened, something really not good. There was a complete retraction of all capital investment and corporations rescinded any risk to their assets.

Any mention of a recovery is simply wishful thinking by the government and the lackeys in the media, actually i would assert that calling what we are in now 'a recovery' is a blatant lie. There is no recovery and we are in survival mode right now, and although some are doing okay, most are not; most are hanging on.
askbob
Posts: 7,254
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6/18/2011 11:53:55 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 6/18/2011 11:01:10 AM, innomen wrote:
And yet the Euro is trading at 1.43 over the dollar, which i am still not sure where the Euro is getting its strength.

Because we compare economies on the basis of the supply and demand of currencies.

Seriously?

Any mention of a recovery is simply wishful thinking by the government and the lackeys in the media, actually i would assert that calling what we are in now 'a recovery' is a blatant lie.

Yes it's all a facade where everyone who has a stake in the process is lying to themselves. Stock prices aren't correlated with profits at all just to our hopes and dreams. One day geolaurate will expose the reptillian scum for what they are, liars.
Me -Phil left the site in my charge. I have a recorded phone conversation to prove it.
kohai -If you're the owner, then do something useful like ip block him and get us away from juggle and on a dofferent host!
Me -haha you apparently don't know my history
Kohai - Maybe not, but that doesn't matter! You shoukd still listen to your community and quit being a tyrrant!
Me - i was being completely sarcastic
Kohai - then u misrepresented yourself by impersonating the owner—a violation of the tos
innomen
Posts: 10,052
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6/18/2011 12:30:17 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 6/18/2011 11:53:55 AM, askbob wrote:
At 6/18/2011 11:01:10 AM, innomen wrote:
And yet the Euro is trading at 1.43 over the dollar, which i am still not sure where the Euro is getting its strength.

Because we compare economies on the basis of the supply and demand of currencies.

Seriously?

Any mention of a recovery is simply wishful thinking by the government and the lackeys in the media, actually i would assert that calling what we are in now 'a recovery' is a blatant lie.

Yes it's all a facade where everyone who has a stake in the process is lying to themselves. Stock prices aren't correlated with profits at all just to our hopes and dreams. One day geolaurate will expose the reptillian scum for what they are, liars.

And how is the stock market? Certain vertical markets are okay - health-care and pharma. Core US based manufacturers continue to struggle and outsource. The stock market is hardly the only economic indicator, particularly when the price of a stock soars when a massive layoff is announced. At best the stock market is volatile. Even when cash is available to corporations they are apprehensive in engaging in debt management for fear of a stock analyst casting a negative judgment on the company, so those who are in a risk filled vertical, which is about 80% of the economy will opt away from growth in order to remain safe, or worse will downsize in the hopes that they will glean a favorable nod from some major investment firm. This has resulted in an overall retraction from economic productivity, with a propping up of the stock market; however the lack of productivity will eventually catch up in earnings reports - which is what you are seeing now in many of the key manufacturers and producers. The unemployment numbers are completely bogus, and the overall employment numbers, that is the quality of jobs being generated at this moment are lower level, lower paying jobs.
askbob
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6/18/2011 12:35:34 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 6/18/2011 12:30:17 PM, innomen wrote:
And how is the stock market? Certain vertical markets are okay - health-care and pharma. Core US based manufacturers continue to struggle and outsource.

Refute Comparative Advantage GOGOGOGO

The stock market is hardly the only economic indicator, particularly when the price of a stock soars when a massive layoff is announced.

Anyone who knows a shred of economics knows that employment is a lagging indicator

At best the stock market is volatile.

*glances at SP500* yeah sure looks to be that way *rolls eyes and laughs to himself*

Even when cash is available to corporations they are apprehensive in engaging in debt management for fear of a stock analyst casting a negative judgment on the company, so those who are in a risk filled vertical, which is about 80% of the economy will opt away from growth in order to remain safe, or worse will downsize in the hopes that they will glean a favorable nod from some major investment firm.

Facts backing up a generalization of the entire global economy?

This has resulted in an overall retraction from economic productivity, with a propping up of the stock market; however the lack of productivity

*Glances @ GDP* you were saying?

will eventually catch up in earnings reports - which is what you are seeing now in many of the key manufacturers and producers. The unemployment numbers are completely bogus, and the overall employment numbers, that is the quality of jobs being generated at this moment are lower level, lower paying jobs.

Since when does manufacturing = economy?
Me -Phil left the site in my charge. I have a recorded phone conversation to prove it.
kohai -If you're the owner, then do something useful like ip block him and get us away from juggle and on a dofferent host!
Me -haha you apparently don't know my history
Kohai - Maybe not, but that doesn't matter! You shoukd still listen to your community and quit being a tyrrant!
Me - i was being completely sarcastic
Kohai - then u misrepresented yourself by impersonating the owner—a violation of the tos
innomen
Posts: 10,052
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6/18/2011 1:36:19 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 6/18/2011 12:35:34 PM, askbob wrote:
At 6/18/2011 12:30:17 PM, innomen wrote:
And how is the stock market? Certain vertical markets are okay - health-care and pharma. Core US based manufacturers continue to struggle and outsource.

Refute Comparative Advantage GOGOGOGO

You don't believe that certain government sanctioned industries are given an advantage, and others are punished?
The stock market is hardly the only economic indicator, particularly when the price of a stock soars when a massive layoff is announced.

Anyone who knows a shred of economics knows that employment is a lagging indicator

Lagging? How much of a time lag are we talking? Years? Anyone with a shred of common sense knows that it's a vague indicator as an economic crisis is more of a condition. McDonald's hiring 50K workers demonstrates the weakness of that as an indicator that could be considered positive.

At best the stock market is volatile.

*glances at SP500* yeah sure looks to be that way *rolls eyes and laughs to himself*

http://www.fullyinformed.com...

There is plenty to suggest that the market may not be so strong in the not so distant future.
Even when cash is available to corporations they are apprehensive in engaging in debt management for fear of a stock analyst casting a negative judgment on the company, so those who are in a risk filled vertical, which is about 80% of the economy will opt away from growth in order to remain safe, or worse will downsize in the hopes that they will glean a favorable nod from some major investment firm.

Facts backing up a generalization of the entire global economy?

Nope, just my own experience in managing 10 million dollars in business, and working with a variety of clients from a spectrum of the economy.
This has resulted in an overall retraction from economic productivity, with a propping up of the stock market; however the lack of productivity

*Glances @ GDP* you were saying?

Yeah? GDP in Q4 of 2010 was 3.1% Q1 of 2011 1.8% next numbers will come out on the 27th of this month. We'll see, and i hope I'm wrong.
will eventually catch up in earnings reports - which is what you are seeing now in many of the key manufacturers and producers. The unemployment numbers are completely bogus, and the overall employment numbers, that is the quality of jobs being generated at this moment are lower level, lower paying jobs.

Since when does manufacturing = economy?
Since when does the stock market = economy?

Personal income is down, and trending downward. Can you have a strong stock market while personal income decreases and expenses increase? If interest rates begin to climb, which is a very real possibility, then inflation combined with unemployment and declining personal income will be very ugly for the average person, but yeah the stock market may still do alright.
askbob
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6/18/2011 3:03:31 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 6/18/2011 1:36:19 PM, innomen wrote:
At 6/18/2011 12:35:34 PM, askbob wrote:
At 6/18/2011 12:30:17 PM, innomen wrote:
And how is the stock market? Certain vertical markets are okay - health-care and pharma. Core US based manufacturers continue to struggle and outsource.

Refute Comparative Advantage GOGOGOGO

You don't believe that certain government sanctioned industries are given an advantage, and others are punished?

Yes but i don't see how that relates to your hypothesis that manufacturing = the economy. It doesn't and if outsourcing is happening its beneficial to the economy not harmful.
The stock market is hardly the only economic indicator, particularly when the price of a stock soars when a massive layoff is announced.

Anyone who knows a shred of economics knows that employment is a lagging indicator

Lagging? How much of a time lag are we talking? Years? Anyone with a shred of common sense knows that it's a vague indicator as an economic crisis is more of a condition. McDonald's hiring 50K workers demonstrates the weakness of that as an indicator that could be considered positive.

At best the stock market is volatile.

*glances at SP500* yeah sure looks to be that way *rolls eyes and laughs to himself*

http://www.fullyinformed.com...

notice how that excludes 2009 lmao

There is plenty to suggest that the market may not be so strong in the not so distant future.
Even when cash is available to corporations they are apprehensive in engaging in debt management for fear of a stock analyst casting a negative judgment on the company, so those who are in a risk filled vertical, which is about 80% of the economy will opt away from growth in order to remain safe, or worse will downsize in the hopes that they will glean a favorable nod from some major investment firm.

Facts backing up a generalization of the entire global economy?

Nope, just my own experience in managing 10 million dollars in business, and working with a variety of clients from a spectrum of the economy.

LMAO woop de doo. 10M is nothing. Quit acting like you're the CFO of a fortune 100 company and that the company comprises all categories of the S&P500

This has resulted in an overall retraction from economic productivity, with a propping up of the stock market; however the lack of productivity

*Glances @ GDP* you were saying?

Yeah? GDP in Q4 of 2010 was 3.1% Q1 of 2011 1.8% next numbers will come out on the 27th of this month. We'll see, and i hope I'm wrong.

You do realize those % represent growth in the GDP. If the numbers come down to .1% guess what, the economy is still growing.

will eventually catch up in earnings reports - which is what you are seeing now in many of the key manufacturers and producers. The unemployment numbers are completely bogus, and the overall employment numbers, that is the quality of jobs being generated at this moment are lower level, lower paying jobs.

Since when does manufacturing = economy?
Since when does the stock market = economy?

Since everything in the economy is traded in the stock market?
Me -Phil left the site in my charge. I have a recorded phone conversation to prove it.
kohai -If you're the owner, then do something useful like ip block him and get us away from juggle and on a dofferent host!
Me -haha you apparently don't know my history
Kohai - Maybe not, but that doesn't matter! You shoukd still listen to your community and quit being a tyrrant!
Me - i was being completely sarcastic
Kohai - then u misrepresented yourself by impersonating the owner—a violation of the tos
askbob
Posts: 7,254
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6/18/2011 3:09:15 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 6/18/2011 3:03:31 PM, askbob wrote:
At 6/18/2011 1:36:19 PM, innomen wrote:
At 6/18/2011 12:35:34 PM, askbob wrote:
At 6/18/2011 12:30:17 PM, innomen wrote:
The stock market is hardly the only economic indicator, particularly when the price of a stock soars when a massive layoff is announced.

Anyone who knows a shred of economics knows that employment is a lagging indicator

Lagging? How much of a time lag are we talking? Years? Anyone with a shred of common sense knows that it's a vague indicator as an economic crisis is more of a condition. McDonald's hiring 50K workers demonstrates the weakness of that as an indicator that could be considered positive.

At best the stock market is volatile.

*glances at SP500* yeah sure looks to be that way *rolls eyes and laughs to himself*

http://www.fullyinformed.com...

notice how that excludes 2009 lmao

http://i52.tinypic.com...

oh yeah it's really volatile innomen looks like it could be a double dip any moment now.
Me -Phil left the site in my charge. I have a recorded phone conversation to prove it.
kohai -If you're the owner, then do something useful like ip block him and get us away from juggle and on a dofferent host!
Me -haha you apparently don't know my history
Kohai - Maybe not, but that doesn't matter! You shoukd still listen to your community and quit being a tyrrant!
Me - i was being completely sarcastic
Kohai - then u misrepresented yourself by impersonating the owner—a violation of the tos
askbob
Posts: 7,254
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6/18/2011 3:11:48 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
AHHHH it's teh great depression!!!!

http://i55.tinypic.com...
Me -Phil left the site in my charge. I have a recorded phone conversation to prove it.
kohai -If you're the owner, then do something useful like ip block him and get us away from juggle and on a dofferent host!
Me -haha you apparently don't know my history
Kohai - Maybe not, but that doesn't matter! You shoukd still listen to your community and quit being a tyrrant!
Me - i was being completely sarcastic
Kohai - then u misrepresented yourself by impersonating the owner—a violation of the tos
askbob
Posts: 7,254
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6/18/2011 3:14:45 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
actually ignore my first sp500 graph forgot to include april and may dragger screwed up

http://i56.tinypic.com...

regardless it's still not even close to "volatile" lol
Me -Phil left the site in my charge. I have a recorded phone conversation to prove it.
kohai -If you're the owner, then do something useful like ip block him and get us away from juggle and on a dofferent host!
Me -haha you apparently don't know my history
Kohai - Maybe not, but that doesn't matter! You shoukd still listen to your community and quit being a tyrrant!
Me - i was being completely sarcastic
Kohai - then u misrepresented yourself by impersonating the owner—a violation of the tos
innomen
Posts: 10,052
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6/18/2011 3:40:53 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 6/18/2011 3:03:31 PM, askbob wrote:
At 6/18/2011 1:36:19 PM, innomen wrote:
At 6/18/2011 12:35:34 PM, askbob wrote:
At 6/18/2011 12:30:17 PM, innomen wrote:
And how is the stock market? Certain vertical markets are okay - health-care and pharma. Core US based manufacturers continue to struggle and outsource.

Refute Comparative Advantage GOGOGOGO

You don't believe that certain government sanctioned industries are given an advantage, and others are punished?

Yes but i don't see how that relates to your hypothesis that manufacturing = the economy. It doesn't and if outsourcing is happening its beneficial to the economy not harmful.

I never made any hypothesis like that. I'd like to hear your argument that outsourcing is beneficial to the economy.
The stock market is hardly the only economic indicator, particularly when the price of a stock soars when a massive layoff is announced.

Anyone who knows a shred of economics knows that employment is a lagging indicator

Lagging? How much of a time lag are we talking? Years? Anyone with a shred of common sense knows that it's a vague indicator as an economic crisis is more of a condition. McDonald's hiring 50K workers demonstrates the weakness of that as an indicator that could be considered positive.

At best the stock market is volatile.

*glances at SP500* yeah sure looks to be that way *rolls eyes and laughs to himself*

http://www.fullyinformed.com...

notice how that excludes 2009 lmao

There is plenty to suggest that the market may not be so strong in the not so distant future.
Even when cash is available to corporations they are apprehensive in engaging in debt management for fear of a stock analyst casting a negative judgment on the company, so those who are in a risk filled vertical, which is about 80% of the economy will opt away from growth in order to remain safe, or worse will downsize in the hopes that they will glean a favorable nod from some major investment firm.

Facts backing up a generalization of the entire global economy?

Nope, just my own experience in managing 10 million dollars in business, and working with a variety of clients from a spectrum of the economy.

LMAO woop de doo. 10M is nothing. Quit acting like you're the CFO of a fortune 100 company and that the company comprises all categories of the S&P500

Never would i say anything like that, and if i came off that way, it was unintentional, although i am an Account Exec that works for a fortune 500 that works with the majority of the fortune 500. I only claim that i am in a business that is considered a bell weather of the economy, and my industry is down. Are you now going to argue that Staples, OfficeMax and Office Depot are not bell weathers?

This has resulted in an overall retraction from economic productivity, with a propping up of the stock market; however the lack of productivity

*Glances @ GDP* you were saying?

Yeah? GDP in Q4 of 2010 was 3.1% Q1 of 2011 1.8% next numbers will come out on the 27th of this month. We'll see, and i hope I'm wrong.

You do realize those % represent growth in the GDP. If the numbers come down to .1% guess what, the economy is still growing.

You agree that it's a drop in growth.
will eventually catch up in earnings reports - which is what you are seeing now in many of the key manufacturers and producers. The unemployment numbers are completely bogus, and the overall employment numbers, that is the quality of jobs being generated at this moment are lower level, lower paying jobs.

Since when does manufacturing = economy?
Since when does the stock market = economy?

Since everything in the economy is traded in the stock market?
That's a yes??!!??

You understand that the standard of living is likely to be falling since personal income is dropping. Unemployment is going to normalize at 9%. The likelihood of interest rates going up is high, and inflation increasing also high. The housing market isn't likely to fully recover for 19 years. BUT...it's quite possible that the stock market could still fare well - so you believe the economy is fine?

I'm not saying it's the great depression, but i see nothing to suggest "recovery" other than what the government has authenticated.
askbob
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6/18/2011 5:50:35 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 6/18/2011 3:40:53 PM, innomen wrote:
I'd like to hear your argument that outsourcing is beneficial to the economy.

http://en.wikipedia.org...

Even when cash is available to corporations they are apprehensive in engaging in debt management for fear of a stock analyst casting a negative judgment on the company, so those who are in a risk filled vertical, which is about 80% of the economy will opt away from growth in order to remain safe, or worse will downsize in the hopes that they will glean a favorable nod from some major investment firm.

Facts backing up a generalization of the entire global economy?

Nope, just my own experience in managing 10 million dollars in business, and working with a variety of clients from a spectrum of the economy.

LMAO woop de doo. 10M is nothing. Quit acting like you're the CFO of a fortune 100 company and that the company comprises all categories of the S&P500

Never would i say anything like that, and if i came off that way, it was unintentional, although i am an Account Exec that works for a fortune 500 that works with the majority of the fortune 500. I only claim that i am in a business that is considered a bell weather of the economy, and my industry is down. Are you now going to argue that Staples, OfficeMax and Office Depot are not bell weathers?

Haha fvck yes i'm going to argue that. Since when are office supplies "bell weathers of the economy" Furthermore those industries are failing as should be apparent to anyone including yourself. Look how correlated they are with the S&P500. They're not. 2/3 are failing while one has a much higher beta which probably shows that office supplies are generally considered business luxury items and are not indicative of the entire economy let alone even a significant portion of it.

http://i51.tinypic.com...


This has resulted in an overall retraction from economic productivity, with a propping up of the stock market; however the lack of productivity

*Glances @ GDP* you were saying?

Yeah? GDP in Q4 of 2010 was 3.1% Q1 of 2011 1.8% next numbers will come out on the 27th of this month. We'll see, and i hope I'm wrong.

You do realize those % represent growth in the GDP. If the numbers come down to .1% guess what, the economy is still growing.

You agree that it's a drop in growth.

A drop in growth not a "lack of productivity" which seems to propose that the economy is shrinking.

will eventually catch up in earnings reports - which is what you are seeing now in many of the key manufacturers and producers. The unemployment numbers are completely bogus, and the overall employment numbers, that is the quality of jobs being generated at this moment are lower level, lower paying jobs.

Since when does manufacturing = economy?
Since when does the stock market = economy?

Since everything in the economy is traded in the stock market?
That's a yes??!!??

Yes the stock market is the best leading indicator of the economy. Not manufacturing and certainly not employment.

You understand that the standard of living is likely to be falling since personal income is dropping

Statistics on where "personal income is dropping" because it's not dropping, it's increasing. So wherever you're hearing that statistic you should probably send them an angry letter.

Unemployment is going to normalize at 9%.
I don't see that as a bad thing. Profits are going up, costs are staying low. That's called an increase in efficiency which is a good thing not a bad thing. That's the main reason why recessions are so good for the economy.

The likelihood of interest rates going up is high, and inflation increasing also high.

Again pure bullshitt based on your clear lack of understanding of economics and the current situation. Fed won't be raising rates for at least another 2 years. Also if you had any understanding of what interest rates are, you'd know that they are the cost of borrowing and is essentially the supply and demand of burrowed funds. As you expect the economy to be in melt down mode (which it's not) you should logically expect them to fall.

With stricter credit limits, as well as the temporary culture shift to lesser consumption, i really doubt you'll see a rise in the demand for borrowed funds for some time until employment picks up which should be in 2-3 years. Furthermore the Eurozone crisis centering around greece has investors flocking to the dollar as a safe haven which further reduce our interest rates.

Also we don't really have any fear at all regarding inflation
http://cdn.theatlantic.com...

Thus why we have a fed.

The housing market isn't likely to fully recover for 19 years. BUT...it's quite possible that the stock market could still fare well - so you believe the economy is fine?

It's not a belief but a reality according to the market. Mainly we're pushing the problem down the road a few years with the eurozone collapse as well as the budget fixes which will occur after the election. It's going to be a while until things start moving into full gear, but mainly we'll be fine. I would just be leery of keeping your money in stocks near he election.

I'm not saying it's the great depression, but i see nothing to suggest "recovery" other than what the government has authenticated.

Government =/= Stock Market.
Me -Phil left the site in my charge. I have a recorded phone conversation to prove it.
kohai -If you're the owner, then do something useful like ip block him and get us away from juggle and on a dofferent host!
Me -haha you apparently don't know my history
Kohai - Maybe not, but that doesn't matter! You shoukd still listen to your community and quit being a tyrrant!
Me - i was being completely sarcastic
Kohai - then u misrepresented yourself by impersonating the owner—a violation of the tos
innomen
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6/19/2011 4:55:39 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 6/18/2011 5:50:35 PM, askbob wrote:
At 6/18/2011 3:40:53 PM, innomen wrote:
I'd like to hear your argument that outsourcing is beneficial to the economy.

http://en.wikipedia.org...

Even when cash is available to corporations they are apprehensive in engaging in debt management for fear of a stock analyst casting a negative judgment on the company, so those who are in a risk filled vertical, which is about 80% of the economy will opt away from growth in order to remain safe, or worse will downsize in the hopes that they will glean a favorable nod from some major investment firm.

Facts backing up a generalization of the entire global economy?

Nope, just my own experience in managing 10 million dollars in business, and working with a variety of clients from a spectrum of the economy.

LMAO woop de doo. 10M is nothing. Quit acting like you're the CFO of a fortune 100 company and that the company comprises all categories of the S&P500

Never would i say anything like that, and if i came off that way, it was unintentional, although i am an Account Exec that works for a fortune 500 that works with the majority of the fortune 500. I only claim that i am in a business that is considered a bell weather of the economy, and my industry is down. Are you now going to argue that Staples, OfficeMax and Office Depot are not bell weathers?

Haha fvck yes i'm going to argue that. Since when are office supplies "bell weathers of the economy" Furthermore those industries are failing as should be apparent to anyone including yourself. Look how correlated they are with the S&P500. They're not. 2/3 are failing while one has a much higher beta which probably shows that office supplies are generally considered business luxury items and are not indicative of the entire economy let alone even a significant portion of it.

http://i51.tinypic.com...


Then i guess you know better than the analysts. You continue to equate the economy to the stock market, and that's just wrong.

This has resulted in an overall retraction from economic productivity, with a propping up of the stock market; however the lack of productivity

*Glances @ GDP* you were saying?

Yeah? GDP in Q4 of 2010 was 3.1% Q1 of 2011 1.8% next numbers will come out on the 27th of this month. We'll see, and i hope I'm wrong.

You do realize those % represent growth in the GDP. If the numbers come down to .1% guess what, the economy is still growing.

You agree that it's a drop in growth.

A drop in growth not a "lack of productivity" which seems to propose that the economy is shrinking.

Not shrinking, but an economy is judged, or more precisely a company is judged by year over year growth, and expectations for next year are formulated from this year's numbers. If you have projected growth at 3% without a discrete event, and you end up with 1% growth, or have quarterly trends toward a lessening of growth that's not a good thing. In a company it's not good, in an economy it's really not good, because of what comprises that lost 2% means.
will eventually catch up in earnings reports - which is what you are seeing now in many of the key manufacturers and producers. The unemployment numbers are completely bogus, and the overall employment numbers, that is the quality of jobs being generated at this moment are lower level, lower paying jobs.

Since when does manufacturing = economy?
Since when does the stock market = economy?

Since everything in the economy is traded in the stock market?
That's a yes??!!??

Yes the stock market is the best leading indicator of the economy. Not manufacturing and certainly not employment.

But that's not what your saying in this thread. You are relying on it as the sole indicator while continually dismissing all other factors.
You understand that the standard of living is likely to be falling since personal income is dropping

Statistics on where "personal income is dropping" because it's not dropping, it's increasing. So wherever you're hearing that statistic you should probably send them an angry letter.

Discretionary income, sorry.
Unemployment is going to normalize at 9%.
I don't see that as a bad thing. Profits are going up, costs are staying low. That's called an increase in efficiency which is a good thing not a bad thing. That's the main reason why recessions are so good for the economy.

Would you debate that high unemployment is good for the economy? Or as long as the stock market is strong, that's all that really matters? The economy isn't simply a theoretical construct of numbers resulting from markets, there is a real application of the variables to the people that make up the economy; the quality of their life overall is most the best economic indicator.

The likelihood of interest rates going up is high, and inflation increasing also high.

Again pure bullshitt based on your clear lack of understanding of economics and the current situation. Fed won't be raising rates for at least another 2 years. Also if you had any understanding of what interest rates are, you'd know that they are the cost of borrowing and is essentially the supply and demand of burrowed funds. As you expect the economy to be in melt down mode (which it's not) you should logically expect them to fall.

Wow, you're really hard to take. I understand interest rates, and how they are factored. If you think that interest rates are not tied to inflation, well i just don't know what to say. I hope you're right, but i don't think so. The feds will hang on as long as they can before they raise the rates, but it isn't likely they will be at this rate in 5 years.
With stricter credit limits, as well as the temporary culture shift to lesser consumption, i really doubt you'll see a rise in the demand for borrowed funds for some time until employment picks up which should be in 2-3 years. Furthermore the Eurozone crisis centering around greece has investors flocking to the dollar as a safe haven which further reduce our interest rates.

Also we don't really have any fear at all regarding inflation
http://cdn.theatlantic.com...

Thus why we have a fed.


The housing market isn't likely to fully recover for 19 years. BUT...it's quite possible that the stock market could still fare well - so you believe the economy is fine?

It's not a belief but a reality according to the market. Mainly we're pushing the problem down the road a few years with the eurozone collapse as well as the budget fixes which will occur after the election. It's going to be a while until things start moving into full gear, but mainly we'll be fine. I would just be leery of keeping your money in stocks near he election.

I'm not saying it's the great depression, but i see nothing to suggest "recovery" other than what the government has authenticated.

Government =/= Stock Market.
Greyparrot
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6/19/2011 5:06:06 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
This is so educational. I can see where both are right and both are wrong. Askbob and Innomen won't ever be candidates for the poorhouse.
RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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6/19/2011 10:57:24 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
Outsourcing is an advantage to the economy because it allows resources to be reallocated to more productive enterprises. North Carolina was once heavily dependent on the textile industry. Jobs moved offshore to Mexico and China. North Carolina changed to financial and pharmaceutical industries and did much better than they would have had they managed to save all those great jobs sewing underwear. All Americans benefit from having cheaper underwear, which allows them to spend money on other things.

The Euro is strong because the Fed has a policy of keeping the dollar weak. That's suppose to encourage exports. It hasn't worked.

The stock market is doing well because companies are now cutting expenses faster than the markets are shrinking. Early in a recession profits drop as companies try to hold staff. Once they give up on the idea of recovery, profits rise. Also, many companies are multi-national and have overseas segments that are doing well.

I think the regulatory burden is the dominant factor. The US collects $2.1 trillion in taxes. One estimate is that Obama has increased the regulatory burden by $1 trillion since taking office. Nothing can overcome that. Its sure death.

I recently heard an optimistic scenario. As the economy worsens this year, Obama will see chances for re-election fading. Inflation is rising, eliminating any possibility of using stimulus. In desperation, he will then try capitalism. For example, allowing oil drilling and fossil fuel exploitation could create 2 million jobs quickly.

I doubt it, but it's possible. FDR was re-elected despite having done a horrible job of trying to fix the Depression. The political strategy is to sell the idea that however bad things are, they would be much worse without the Messiah in charge. Kim keeps popular support in N. Korea with that tactic. Kim controls the press, but here we have a wildly leftist press that will send the message without being forced.
askbob
Posts: 7,254
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6/19/2011 12:36:05 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 6/19/2011 4:55:39 AM, innomen wrote:
At 6/18/2011 5:50:35 PM, askbob wrote:
At 6/18/2011 3:40:53 PM, innomen wrote:
I'd like to hear your argument that outsourcing is beneficial to the economy.

http://en.wikipedia.org...

Even when cash is available to corporations they are apprehensive in engaging in debt management for fear of a stock analyst casting a negative judgment on the company, so those who are in a risk filled vertical, which is about 80% of the economy will opt away from growth in order to remain safe, or worse will downsize in the hopes that they will glean a favorable nod from some major investment firm.

Facts backing up a generalization of the entire global economy?

Nope, just my own experience in managing 10 million dollars in business, and working with a variety of clients from a spectrum of the economy.

LMAO woop de doo. 10M is nothing. Quit acting like you're the CFO of a fortune 100 company and that the company comprises all categories of the S&P500

Never would i say anything like that, and if i came off that way, it was unintentional, although i am an Account Exec that works for a fortune 500 that works with the majority of the fortune 500. I only claim that i am in a business that is considered a bell weather of the economy, and my industry is down. Are you now going to argue that Staples, OfficeMax and Office Depot are not bell weathers?

Haha fvck yes i'm going to argue that. Since when are office supplies "bell weathers of the economy" Furthermore those industries are failing as should be apparent to anyone including yourself. Look how correlated they are with the S&P500. They're not. 2/3 are failing while one has a much higher beta which probably shows that office supplies are generally considered business luxury items and are not indicative of the entire economy let alone even a significant portion of it.

http://i51.tinypic.com...


Then i guess you know better than the analysts. You continue to equate the economy to the stock market, and that's just wrong.

Name the analysts who believe that those companies are a bellweather. Seriously you only have to look at the graph. 2/3 are failing companies. They're not the S&P and not even kind of a good predictor of it.

A drop in growth not a "lack of productivity" which seems to propose that the economy is shrinking.

Not shrinking, but an economy is judged, or more precisely a company is judged by year over year growth, and expectations for next year are formulated from this year's numbers. If you have projected growth at 3% without a discrete event, and you end up with 1% growth, or have quarterly trends toward a lessening of growth that's not a good thing. In a company it's not good, in an economy it's really not good, because of what comprises that lost 2% means.

Don't attempt to pretend like a growing economy is "not good" based on the rate. Furthermore your predictions of a dismal GDP are based off your perception of the office supply industry. Try gaining some real perspective on the economy as the whole before making stupid assumptions about GDP. Retail numbers have been up (as a result i've made a shitton of money). Also GDP's are judged relatively. And relatively, we're on top of the heap.

You understand that the standard of living is likely to be falling since personal income is dropping

Statistics on where "personal income is dropping" because it's not dropping, it's increasing. So wherever you're hearing that statistic you should probably send them an angry letter.

Discretionary income, sorry.

Yeah because the numbers you're looking at most likely factor in unemployment/social security

http://research.stlouisfed.org...

Unemployment is going to normalize at 9%.
I don't see that as a bad thing. Profits are going up, costs are staying low. That's called an increase in efficiency which is a good thing not a bad thing. That's the main reason why recessions are so good for the economy.

Would you debate that high unemployment is good for the economy? Or as long as the stock market is strong, that's all that really matters?

Yes, because that is all that matters.

100% are working and profits are 200

90% working and profits are 500

Adding on the 10% would detract from profits. Business isn't charity, it's business. Employment for employments sake is completely idiotic. Can those other 10% be producing value elsewhere? Yes, they just think they are too good for those jobs. The reason why outsourcing is occurring is a mixture of comparitive advantage and the current workers thoughts on standard of living. Until american factory workers are willing to compete for wages, jobs will go elsewhere. I'm sorry but anyone can work in a factory not everyone can be a doctor. The fact that factory workers were making above minimum should tell you something is wrong. If you have a problem with unemployment then remove unions and remove the minimum wage. Both are price floors.

Wow, you're really hard to take. I understand interest rates, and how they are factored. If you think that interest rates are not tied to inflation, well i just don't know what to say.

I don't remember saying they weren't linked, just that interest rates and inflation don't magically increase while the economy goes to the shitts as you were saying it will. If the economy is bad you'll see low interest rates and deflation not high interest rates and inflation.

I hope you're right, but i don't think so. The feds will hang on as long as they can before they raise the rates, but it isn't likely they will be at this rate in 5 years.

I said 2 years, of course not in five years.
Me -Phil left the site in my charge. I have a recorded phone conversation to prove it.
kohai -If you're the owner, then do something useful like ip block him and get us away from juggle and on a dofferent host!
Me -haha you apparently don't know my history
Kohai - Maybe not, but that doesn't matter! You shoukd still listen to your community and quit being a tyrrant!
Me - i was being completely sarcastic
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innomen
Posts: 10,052
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6/19/2011 1:08:43 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 6/19/2011 12:36:05 PM, askbob wrote:
At 6/19/2011 4:55:39 AM, innomen wrote:
At 6/18/2011 5:50:35 PM, askbob wrote:
At 6/18/2011 3:40:53 PM, innomen wrote:
I'd like to hear your argument that outsourcing is beneficial to the economy.

http://en.wikipedia.org...

Even when cash is available to corporations they are apprehensive in engaging in debt management for fear of a stock analyst casting a negative judgment on the company, so those who are in a risk filled vertical, which is about 80% of the economy will opt away from growth in order to remain safe, or worse will downsize in the hopes that they will glean a favorable nod from some major investment firm.

Facts backing up a generalization of the entire global economy?

Nope, just my own experience in managing 10 million dollars in business, and working with a variety of clients from a spectrum of the economy.

LMAO woop de doo. 10M is nothing. Quit acting like you're the CFO of a fortune 100 company and that the company comprises all categories of the S&P500

Never would i say anything like that, and if i came off that way, it was unintentional, although i am an Account Exec that works for a fortune 500 that works with the majority of the fortune 500. I only claim that i am in a business that is considered a bell weather of the economy, and my industry is down. Are you now going to argue that Staples, OfficeMax and Office Depot are not bell weathers?

Haha fvck yes i'm going to argue that. Since when are office supplies "bell weathers of the economy" Furthermore those industries are failing as should be apparent to anyone including yourself. Look how correlated they are with the S&P500. They're not. 2/3 are failing while one has a much higher beta which probably shows that office supplies are generally considered business luxury items and are not indicative of the entire economy let alone even a significant portion of it.

http://i51.tinypic.com...


Then i guess you know better than the analysts. You continue to equate the economy to the stock market, and that's just wrong.

Name the analysts who believe that those companies are a bellweather. Seriously you only have to look at the graph. 2/3 are failing companies. They're not the S&P and not even kind of a good predictor of it.

"The shares of office-products companies tend to peak and trough four quarters ahead of gross domestic product, according to Citigroup analyst Kate McShane."
http://www.smartmoney.com...
that took me all of 10 seconds to find.

A drop in growth not a "lack of productivity" which seems to propose that the economy is shrinking.

Not shrinking, but an economy is judged, or more precisely a company is judged by year over year growth, and expectations for next year are formulated from this year's numbers. If you have projected growth at 3% without a discrete event, and you end up with 1% growth, or have quarterly trends toward a lessening of growth that's not a good thing. In a company it's not good, in an economy it's really not good, because of what comprises that lost 2% means.

Don't attempt to pretend like a growing economy is "not good" based on the rate. Furthermore your predictions of a dismal GDP are based off your perception of the office supply industry. Try gaining some real perspective on the economy as the whole before making stupid assumptions about GDP. Retail numbers have been up (as a result i've made a shitton of money). Also GDP's are judged relatively. And relatively, we're on top of the heap.


You understand that the standard of living is likely to be falling since personal income is dropping

Statistics on where "personal income is dropping" because it's not dropping, it's increasing. So wherever you're hearing that statistic you should probably send them an angry letter.

Discretionary income, sorry.

Yeah because the numbers you're looking at most likely factor in unemployment/social security

http://research.stlouisfed.org...

Unemployment is going to normalize at 9%.
I don't see that as a bad thing. Profits are going up, costs are staying low. That's called an increase in efficiency which is a good thing not a bad thing. That's the main reason why recessions are so good for the economy.

Would you debate that high unemployment is good for the economy? Or as long as the stock market is strong, that's all that really matters?

Yes, because that is all that matters.

That's ridiculous. The amount of debt the gov't is acruing means nothing, the value of the dollar means nothing, unemployment means nothing, the housing market means nothing as long as the stock market is solid.
100% are working and profits are 200

90% working and profits are 500

Adding on the 10% would detract from profits. Business isn't charity, it's business. Employment for employments sake is completely idiotic. Can those other 10% be producing value elsewhere? Yes, they just think they are too good for those jobs. The reason why outsourcing is occurring is a mixture of comparitive advantage and the current workers thoughts on standard of living. Until american factory workers are willing to compete for wages, jobs will go elsewhere. I'm sorry but anyone can work in a factory not everyone can be a doctor. The fact that factory workers were making above minimum should tell you something is wrong. If you have a problem with unemployment then remove unions and remove the minimum wage. Both are price floors.

Yeah, I'm okay with that, reducing the coporate tax rate etc. but that's beside the point.
Wow, you're really hard to take. I understand interest rates, and how they are factored. If you think that interest rates are not tied to inflation, well i just don't know what to say.

I don't remember saying they weren't linked, just that interest rates and inflation don't magically increase while the economy goes to the shitts as you were saying it will. If the economy is bad you'll see low interest rates and deflation not high interest rates and inflation.

I hope you're right, but i don't think so. The feds will hang on as long as they can before they raise the rates, but it isn't likely they will be at this rate in 5 years.

I said 2 years, of course not in five years.
askbob
Posts: 7,254
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6/19/2011 1:31:17 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 6/19/2011 1:08:43 PM, innomen wrote:
At 6/19/2011 12:36:05 PM, askbob wrote:
At 6/19/2011 4:55:39 AM, innomen wrote:
At 6/18/2011 5:50:35 PM, askbob wrote:
At 6/18/2011 3:40:53 PM, innomen wrote:
I'd like to hear your argument that outsourcing is beneficial to the economy.

http://en.wikipedia.org...

Even when cash is available to corporations they are apprehensive in engaging in debt management for fear of a stock analyst casting a negative judgment on the company, so those who are in a risk filled vertical, which is about 80% of the economy will opt away from growth in order to remain safe, or worse will downsize in the hopes that they will glean a favorable nod from some major investment firm.

Facts backing up a generalization of the entire global economy?

Nope, just my own experience in managing 10 million dollars in business, and working with a variety of clients from a spectrum of the economy.

LMAO woop de doo. 10M is nothing. Quit acting like you're the CFO of a fortune 100 company and that the company comprises all categories of the S&P500

Never would i say anything like that, and if i came off that way, it was unintentional, although i am an Account Exec that works for a fortune 500 that works with the majority of the fortune 500. I only claim that i am in a business that is considered a bell weather of the economy, and my industry is down. Are you now going to argue that Staples, OfficeMax and Office Depot are not bell weathers?

Haha fvck yes i'm going to argue that. Since when are office supplies "bell weathers of the economy" Furthermore those industries are failing as should be apparent to anyone including yourself. Look how correlated they are with the S&P500. They're not. 2/3 are failing while one has a much higher beta which probably shows that office supplies are generally considered business luxury items and are not indicative of the entire economy let alone even a significant portion of it.

http://i51.tinypic.com...


Then i guess you know better than the analysts. You continue to equate the economy to the stock market, and that's just wrong.

Name the analysts who believe that those companies are a bellweather. Seriously you only have to look at the graph. 2/3 are failing companies. They're not the S&P and not even kind of a good predictor of it.

"The shares of office-products companies tend to peak and trough four quarters ahead of gross domestic product, according to Citigroup analyst Kate McShane."
http://www.smartmoney.com...
that took me all of 10 seconds to find.
http://www.google.com...

That theory clearly benefited Citigroup in their investing LMFAO

A drop in growth not a "lack of productivity" which seems to propose that the economy is shrinking.

Not shrinking, but an economy is judged, or more precisely a company is judged by year over year growth, and expectations for next year are formulated from this year's numbers. If you have projected growth at 3% without a discrete event, and you end up with 1% growth, or have quarterly trends toward a lessening of growth that's not a good thing. In a company it's not good, in an economy it's really not good, because of what comprises that lost 2% means.

Don't attempt to pretend like a growing economy is "not good" based on the rate. Furthermore your predictions of a dismal GDP are based off your perception of the office supply industry. Try gaining some real perspective on the economy as the whole before making stupid assumptions about GDP. Retail numbers have been up (as a result i've made a shitton of money). Also GDP's are judged relatively. And relatively, we're on top of the heap.


You understand that the standard of living is likely to be falling since personal income is dropping

Statistics on where "personal income is dropping" because it's not dropping, it's increasing. So wherever you're hearing that statistic you should probably send them an angry letter.

Discretionary income, sorry.

Yeah because the numbers you're looking at most likely factor in unemployment/social security

http://research.stlouisfed.org...

Unemployment is going to normalize at 9%.
I don't see that as a bad thing. Profits are going up, costs are staying low. That's called an increase in efficiency which is a good thing not a bad thing. That's the main reason why recessions are so good for the economy.

Would you debate that high unemployment is good for the economy? Or as long as the stock market is strong, that's all that really matters?

Yes, because that is all that matters.

That's ridiculous. The amount of debt the gov't is acruing means nothing, the value of the dollar means nothing, unemployment means nothing, the housing market means nothing as long as the stock market is solid.

In finance, the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) asserts that financial markets are "informationally efficient". That is, one cannot consistently achieve returns in excess of average market returns on a risk-adjusted basis, given the information publicly available at the time the investment is made.

There are three major versions of the hypothesis: "weak", "semi-strong", and "strong". Weak EMH claims that prices on traded assets (e.g., stocks, bonds, or property) already reflect all past publicly available information. Semi-strong EMH claims both that prices reflect all publicly available information and that prices instantly change to reflect new public information. Strong EMH additionally claims that prices instantly reflect even hidden or "insider" information. There is evidence for and against the weak and semi-strong EMHs, while there is powerful evidence against strong EMH.

http://en.wikipedia.org...
Me -Phil left the site in my charge. I have a recorded phone conversation to prove it.
kohai -If you're the owner, then do something useful like ip block him and get us away from juggle and on a dofferent host!
Me -haha you apparently don't know my history
Kohai - Maybe not, but that doesn't matter! You shoukd still listen to your community and quit being a tyrrant!
Me - i was being completely sarcastic
Kohai - then u misrepresented yourself by impersonating the owner—a violation of the tos