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Some Econ Advice

darkkermit
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9/23/2012 9:55:53 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
a) econ advice is not finance advice.
b) terrible idea. Price of gold has already skyrocketed since the financial crisis and is already in a bubble.
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16kadams
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9/23/2012 9:59:27 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/23/2012 9:29:26 PM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
Buy Gold and Silver now

Its a bubble
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johnnyboy54
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9/23/2012 10:01:59 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/23/2012 9:55:53 PM, darkkermit wrote:
a) econ advice is not finance advice.

Yep.

b) terrible idea. Price of gold has already skyrocketed since the financial crisis and is already in a bubble.

Not sure if I would call it a bubble. Gold and silver are just counter cyclical to the market. However I agree unless there are indicators of another recession. If there is, buy gold.
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darkkermit
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9/23/2012 10:07:41 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/23/2012 10:01:59 PM, johnnyboy54 wrote:
At 9/23/2012 9:55:53 PM, darkkermit wrote:
a) econ advice is not finance advice.

Yep.

b) terrible idea. Price of gold has already skyrocketed since the financial crisis and is already in a bubble.

Not sure if I would call it a bubble. Gold and silver are just counter cyclical to the market. However I agree unless there are indicators of another recession. If there is, buy gold.

Some indicators of another recession, but not great ones. Intrade gives probability of recession at 21%. There's the fiscal cliff and the euro crisis that could be problematic. An economic crisis in China is always a strong possibility. However, gold is already at recession level prices so there's no reason to go for it.
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Koopin
Posts: 12,090
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9/23/2012 10:25:42 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Oh no, the Milton-bots have arrived!!! :D

I have some silver. Bought it at $27 two dollars spot which is pretty swell.

Some people say silver is fools gold, but I'd rather buy $3000 worth of Gold than silver.
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Contra
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9/24/2012 4:16:33 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I bought silver when it was at $37 at one point. I have several ounces and bought them at much lower prices, but I don't think that silver has a bullish outlook.
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Wallstreetatheist
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9/24/2012 5:27:13 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
QE3 was announced on September 13, 2012. In an 11-to-1 vote, the Federal Reserve decided to launch a new $40 billion a month, open-ended, bond purchasing program of agency mortgage-backed securities; to continue until at least mid-2015.

$1.32 Trillion in fiat currency creation starting now
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jacob.stewart129142
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9/24/2012 6:34:11 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/23/2012 9:29:26 PM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
Buy Gold and Silver now

"When we took over Berkshire, it was selling at $15 a share and gold was selling at $20 an ounce. Gold is now $1600 and Berkshire is $120,000. Or you can take a broader example. If you buy an ounce of gold today and you hold it at hundred years, you can go to it every day and you could coo to it and fondle it and a hundred years from now, you"ll have one ounce of gold and it won"t have done anything for you in between. You buy 100 acres of farm land and it will produce for you every year. You can buy more farmland, and all kinds of things, and you still have 100 acres of farmland at the end of 100 years. You could you buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average for 66 at the start of 1900. Gold was then $20. At the end of the century, it was 11,400, and you would also have gotten dividends for a hundred years. So a decent productive asset will kill an unproductive asset.

"Why do you think gold bugs get so irate? Because they really do come out. If you go on CNBC and say that bonds are kind of a poor investment, people don"t get mad at you. You don"t hear from the Treasury. You can knock almost any investment and nothing happens. But when you talk about gold it"s different. Of course that says something about their motivation for ownership. They want people to agree with them. They want everybody to get so scared they run to a cave with gold. Caves might be a better investment than gold. At least they"re not producing more caves all the time. So they want people to be as afraid as they are. Incidentally, they"re right to be afraid of paper money. Their basic premise that paper money around the world is going to be worth less and less over time is absolutely correct. They have the correct basic premise. They should run from paper money. But where they run to is the mistake."

"[Gold] gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."

% Loss since advice 0.75%
: At 9/24/2012 9:36:56 PM, imabench wrote:

:Little noobs get banned all the time for trying to act like big shots and for blatantly insulting people who contribute to the site all the time.... you even reported one of the highest ranking people on here....

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jacob.stewart129142
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9/24/2012 6:35:15 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/24/2012 5:27:13 PM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
QE3 was announced on September 13, 2012. In an 11-to-1 vote, the Federal Reserve decided to launch a new $40 billion a month, open-ended, bond purchasing program of agency mortgage-backed securities; to continue until at least mid-2015.

$1.32 Trillion in fiat currency creation starting now

All investors were too stupid to price this in already. They have to wait till it happens until they adjust their forecasts.

HURR DURR I DONT KNOW HOW TO INVEST
: At 9/24/2012 9:36:56 PM, imabench wrote:

:Little noobs get banned all the time for trying to act like big shots and for blatantly insulting people who contribute to the site all the time.... you even reported one of the highest ranking people on here....

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darkkermit
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9/24/2012 6:44:55 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
But it could rise. Just recognize that gold is in a giant bubble. The key is going along for the ride and leaving once it pops. Easier said than done though, although the fears of austrians about gold could raise the price. Although those who follow austrian economics tend not to have enough money for investment anyhow ;P
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jacob.stewart129142
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9/24/2012 7:33:21 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/24/2012 6:44:55 PM, darkkermit wrote:
But it could rise. Just recognize that gold is in a giant bubble. The key is going along for the ride and leaving once it pops. Easier said than done though, although the fears of austrians about gold could raise the price. Although those who follow austrian economics tend not to have enough money for investment anyhow ;P

It's not about whether you could make money on a commodity but rather that there e superior choices such as productive assets which would make more money in a similar timeframe.
: At 9/24/2012 9:36:56 PM, imabench wrote:

:Little noobs get banned all the time for trying to act like big shots and for blatantly insulting people who contribute to the site all the time.... you even reported one of the highest ranking people on here....

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johnnyboy54
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9/26/2012 12:31:25 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/24/2012 7:33:21 PM, jacob.stewart129142 wrote:
At 9/24/2012 6:44:55 PM, darkkermit wrote:
But it could rise. Just recognize that gold is in a giant bubble. The key is going along for the ride and leaving once it pops. Easier said than done though, although the fears of austrians about gold could raise the price. Although those who follow austrian economics tend not to have enough money for investment anyhow ;P

It's not about whether you could make money on a commodity but rather that there e superior choices such as productive assets which would make more money in a similar timeframe.

It's also about risk and market trends. Gold tends to do well and be a pretty safe investment if the market has a bearish sentiment.
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Wallstreetatheist
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9/26/2012 2:34:28 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/24/2012 6:44:55 PM, darkkermit wrote:
But it could rise. Just recognize that gold is in a giant bubble. The key is going along for the ride and leaving once it pops. Easier said than done though, although the fears of austrians about gold could raise the price. Although those who follow austrian economics tend not to have enough money for investment anyhow ;P

Gold is money. Fiat currency is not. Also, Peter Schiff http://www.europac.net...
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darkkermit
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9/26/2012 2:52:44 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/26/2012 2:34:28 AM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
At 9/24/2012 6:44:55 PM, darkkermit wrote:
But it could rise. Just recognize that gold is in a giant bubble. The key is going along for the ride and leaving once it pops. Easier said than done though, although the fears of austrians about gold could raise the price. Although those who follow austrian economics tend not to have enough money for investment anyhow ;P

Gold is money. Fiat currency is not. Also, Peter Schiff http://www.europac.net...

Yes. You have one rich Austrian economist. Congrats.

Seriously? I can go to a store, buy some food and pay it with fiat currency. Can't do that with gold.

Why doesn't a single nation adopt the gold standard? Instead they decide to fix their currency to the old inferior US dollar. And foreign nations also just happen to use the US dollar as a reserve currency even though its so "inferior".
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FREEDO
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9/26/2012 3:52:59 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/23/2012 9:29:26 PM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
Buy Gold and Silver now

Wow, you are such an amazing expert on economics and how I should handle my money.

Please, tell me more oh teller of magical things to be told.
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lewis20
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9/26/2012 10:33:02 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/26/2012 2:52:44 AM, darkkermit wrote:
At 9/26/2012 2:34:28 AM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
At 9/24/2012 6:44:55 PM, darkkermit wrote:
But it could rise. Just recognize that gold is in a giant bubble. The key is going along for the ride and leaving once it pops. Easier said than done though, although the fears of austrians about gold could raise the price. Although those who follow austrian economics tend not to have enough money for investment anyhow ;P

Gold is money. Fiat currency is not. Also, Peter Schiff http://www.europac.net...

Yes. You have one rich Austrian economist. Congrats.

Seriously? I can go to a store, buy some food and pay it with fiat currency. Can't do that with gold.

Why doesn't a single nation adopt the gold standard? Instead they decide to fix their currency to the old inferior US dollar. And foreign nations also just happen to use the US dollar as a reserve currency even though its so "inferior".

To be fair, nations don't have much of a choice do they. Fiat money is the international language of the banking cartels who don't like money they can't print.

Also you can't buy food with gold because it's illegal, not because it's somehow inferior, figured you would know that.
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Wallstreetatheist
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9/26/2012 1:26:52 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/26/2012 3:52:59 AM, FREEDO wrote:
At 9/23/2012 9:29:26 PM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
Buy Gold and Silver now

Wow, you are such an amazing expert on economics and how I should handle my money.

Please, tell me more oh teller of magical things to be told.

The purchasing power of your fiat currency will be decreased substantially over the next few years. Gold and silver act as stabilizers. It's not magic; it's common sense: counterfeiting currency decreases the value. If you have contracts/pensions denominated in USD you'll be screwed, if you have money in a bank account you'll be screwed.
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Wallstreetatheist
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9/26/2012 1:28:21 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/26/2012 2:52:44 AM, darkkermit wrote:

Seriously? I can go to a store, buy some food and pay it with fiat currency. Can't do that with gold.

Why doesn't a single nation adopt the gold standard? Instead they decide to fix their currency to the old inferior US dollar. And foreign nations also just happen to use the US dollar as a reserve currency even though its so "inferior".

That's really your argument? I know you're not that stupid or uninformed, you know economic history and the reasons governments adopted Keynesian tactics.
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darkkermit
Posts: 11,204
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9/26/2012 1:55:41 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/26/2012 10:33:02 AM, lewis20 wrote:
At 9/26/2012 2:52:44 AM, darkkermit wrote:
At 9/26/2012 2:34:28 AM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
At 9/24/2012 6:44:55 PM, darkkermit wrote:
But it could rise. Just recognize that gold is in a giant bubble. The key is going along for the ride and leaving once it pops. Easier said than done though, although the fears of austrians about gold could raise the price. Although those who follow austrian economics tend not to have enough money for investment anyhow ;P

Gold is money. Fiat currency is not. Also, Peter Schiff http://www.europac.net...

Yes. You have one rich Austrian economist. Congrats.

Seriously? I can go to a store, buy some food and pay it with fiat currency. Can't do that with gold.

Why doesn't a single nation adopt the gold standard? Instead they decide to fix their currency to the old inferior US dollar. And foreign nations also just happen to use the US dollar as a reserve currency even though its so "inferior".

To be fair, nations don't have much of a choice do they. Fiat money is the international language of the banking cartels who don't like money they can't print.

Why don't nations have a choice? Also the banks don't print the money. The central bank does. And how is it a cartel? You could theoretically start your own bank. It might be a lot of work due to regulations, but you can definitely do it.

Also you can't buy food with gold because it's illegal, not because it's somehow inferior, figured you would know that.

No it isn't. You can certainly start a business and require buyers to pay with gold. A business owner has the right to refuse service to anyone and doesn't have to accept cash. Some business's already do that. For example, If you go to Dave and Busters, you don't use cash to purchase games. You use tokens. Dave and Busters don't have to be require cash as payment for their games. Same If you get a lot of tickets. You have to pay in tickets to get a prize. You can't force the company to accept your money.
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darkkermit
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9/26/2012 2:04:06 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/26/2012 1:26:52 PM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
At 9/26/2012 3:52:59 AM, FREEDO wrote:
At 9/23/2012 9:29:26 PM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
Buy Gold and Silver now

Wow, you are such an amazing expert on economics and how I should handle my money.

Please, tell me more oh teller of magical things to be told.

The purchasing power of your fiat currency will be decreased substantially over the next few years. Gold and silver act as stabilizers. It's not magic; it's common sense: counterfeiting currency decreases the value. If you have contracts/pensions denominated in USD you'll be screwed, if you have money in a bank account you'll be screwed.

Except QE1, and QE2 failed to cause massive inflation.

http://www.economistsdoitwithmodels.com...

In fact, quite the opposite. Ben Bernake produced the lowest level of inflation, and the least amount of M1 and M2 has been produced, which is the money supply.

Plus, lets say that for some reason that QE causes massive inflation. Here's an idea. The Federal Reserve can then sell off their bonds that they bought through QE and raise cash reserve requirements for the banks.
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lewis20
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9/26/2012 2:12:39 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/26/2012 1:55:41 PM, darkkermit wrote:
At 9/26/2012 10:33:02 AM, lewis20 wrote:
At 9/26/2012 2:52:44 AM, darkkermit wrote:
At 9/26/2012 2:34:28 AM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
At 9/24/2012 6:44:55 PM, darkkermit wrote:
But it could rise. Just recognize that gold is in a giant bubble. The key is going along for the ride and leaving once it pops. Easier said than done though, although the fears of austrians about gold could raise the price. Although those who follow austrian economics tend not to have enough money for investment anyhow ;P

Gold is money. Fiat currency is not. Also, Peter Schiff http://www.europac.net...

Yes. You have one rich Austrian economist. Congrats.

Seriously? I can go to a store, buy some food and pay it with fiat currency. Can't do that with gold.

Why doesn't a single nation adopt the gold standard? Instead they decide to fix their currency to the old inferior US dollar. And foreign nations also just happen to use the US dollar as a reserve currency even though its so "inferior".

To be fair, nations don't have much of a choice do they. Fiat money is the international language of the banking cartels who don't like money they can't print.

Why don't nations have a choice? Also the banks don't print the money. The central bank does. And how is it a cartel? You could theoretically start your own bank. It might be a lot of work due to regulations, but you can definitely do it.

Also you can't buy food with gold because it's illegal, not because it's somehow inferior, figured you would know that.

No it isn't. You can certainly start a business and require buyers to pay with gold. A business owner has the right to refuse service to anyone and doesn't have to accept cash. Some business's already do that. For example, If you go to Dave and Busters, you don't use cash to purchase games. You use tokens. Dave and Busters don't have to be require cash as payment for their games. Same If you get a lot of tickets. You have to pay in tickets to get a prize. You can't force the company to accept your money.

Oh ya, dave and busters I forgot.
"If you are a racist I will attack you with the north"- Abraham Lincoln

"Do not wear clothing woven of two kinds of material" - Leviticus 19 19

"War is a racket" - Smedley Butler