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What We Learned

jimtimmy
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1/16/2013 11:35:11 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
I think the experience of some major economies can be looked at to gain insights into what actually works. Here are some lessons that should be learned from a few countries:

Japan:

1.) Industrial policy can seem to be working in the short run but really is not capable of powering long term productivity growth.

2.) Fiscal stimulus is pretty innefective at stimulting aggregate demand but is good at creating a large national debt.

France and Italy:

1.) Excessively high taxes and spending as well as highly regulated labor markets really do reduce GDP and employment.

Sweden and Germany:

1.) Spending cuts are not necessarily bad for the economy if accompanying policies are good. For instance, if spending is reduced while the government is pursuing good supply side policies and good monetary policy, the hurt really isn't there.

2.) Pro market reforms can do a lot for a country's economy.

North Korea and South Korea:

1.) Communism doesn't work.

2.) Free markets do work.

Singapore and Hong Kong:

1.) Low taxes, low regulation, and weak unions lead to high levels of economic growth

Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland:

1.) Debt really does come back to bite.

2.) (Just Ireland) Low corporate tax rates can do a lot for an economy

China and Russia:

1.) Aggressive free market reforms can turn around an economy very fast

Zimbabwe:

1.) Inflation is, everywhere and anywhere, a monetary phenomenon

United Kingdom:

1.) Again, market based reforms can do a lot for an economy

2.) Tight money is very bad

United States:

1.) Free enterprise is really, really good

2.) Just because interest rates are low or the money supply is being expanded rapidly does not mean monetary policy is "loose"

Chile:

1.) Agressive pro market economic reforms can hurt in the short run but do a lot of good in the long run

Cuba and Venezuala:

1.) Socialism does not work
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jimtimmy
Posts: 3,953
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1/16/2013 11:37:12 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
A lot of repeats here.

Perhaps this is evidence that we don't really learn at all even if the evidence is there.
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darkkermit
Posts: 11,204
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1/16/2013 11:38:45 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Little confused about #1, through all accounts Japan is considered an economic miracle. Even if its not experience high rates of gdp growth now, its still ahead of most nations in the world.

Japan's an example of how stimulus spending doesn't work if the gdp/debt ratio is too high.
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MouthWash
Posts: 2,607
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1/16/2013 11:39:24 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Welcome back to the world.
"Well, that gives whole new meaning to my assassination. If I was going to die anyway, perhaps I should leave the Bolsheviks' descendants some Christmas cookies instead of breaking their dishes and vodka bottles in their sleep." -Tsar Nicholas II (YYW)
jimtimmy
Posts: 3,953
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1/16/2013 11:54:05 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/16/2013 11:38:45 PM, darkkermit wrote:
Little confused about #1, through all accounts Japan is considered an economic miracle. Even if its not experience high rates of gdp growth now, its still ahead of most nations in the world.

Japan's an example of how stimulus spending doesn't work if the gdp/debt ratio is too high.

Correction, Japan WAS considered an economic miracle.

Their ability to produce growth stopped in about 1990.

And, the debt/GDP ratio wasn't that high then.

Despite numerous rounds of fiscal stimulus, Japan failed to grow.
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sadolite
Posts: 8,837
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1/18/2013 10:04:30 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/16/2013 11:37:12 PM, jimtimmy wrote:
A lot of repeats here.

Perhaps this is evidence that we don't really learn at all even if the evidence is there.

I agree, people are being asked to learn from history. As if
It's not your views that divide us, it's what you think my views should be that divides us.

If you think I will give up my rights and forsake social etiquette to make you "FEEL" better you are sadly mistaken

If liberal democrats would just stop shooting people gun violence would drop by 90%
malcolmxy
Posts: 2,855
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1/18/2013 10:28:55 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/16/2013 11:54:05 PM, jimtimmy wrote:
At 1/16/2013 11:38:45 PM, darkkermit wrote:
Little confused about #1, through all accounts Japan is considered an economic miracle. Even if its not experience high rates of gdp growth now, its still ahead of most nations in the world.

Japan's an example of how stimulus spending doesn't work if the gdp/debt ratio is too high.

Correction, Japan WAS considered an economic miracle.

Their ability to produce growth stopped in about 1990.

And, the debt/GDP ratio wasn't that high then.

Despite numerous rounds of fiscal stimulus, Japan failed to grow.

And yet, if I were to ask you to name 10 car brands, I'd bet that at least 5 of them would be Japanese (as long as you didn't know this was what I was trying to prove such that you would actively try for that not to be the case).

Sony is selling like Sony always sells, and they finally, with the Blu-Ray disc, won their ridiculous bid, which started with BetaMax and continues on today with the MemoryStickPro, to have THE proprietary physical format in home video entertainment, except...OOPS - digital physical media is almost dead.

Still, Sony is doing OK.

As is Mitsubishi...as is Nippon Steel...as is...

The problem is that the way things are set up right now, there necessarily must be growth, but growth can't last forever unless we start colonizing other planets. The Earth can only withstand so much growth before she is gonna kick all of us off so that she can heal.

Plus, Japan is OLD...they don't want to grow, and they can't until 20 years after they have some sort of baby boom, and these are the same people who still have to pixelate their porn, so I'm not predicting a baby boom for them any time soon.

Growth isn't always good, and Japan has found their niche in the world market, and their niche is in high demand.

Japan is just fine, all things considered.
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Stephen_Hawkins
Posts: 5,316
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1/19/2013 3:53:36 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Japanese soft technology is the equivalent of ultra-high-definition porn that jumps out of the TV and touches yourself for you compared to the rest of the market.
Give a man a fish, he'll eat for a day. Teach him how to be Gay, he'll positively influence the GDP.

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malcolmxy
Posts: 2,855
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1/19/2013 5:20:23 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/19/2013 3:53:36 PM, Stephen_Hawkins wrote:
Japanese soft technology is the equivalent of ultra-high-definition porn that jumps out of the TV and touches yourself for you compared to the rest of the market.

That's kinda funny, because if you're looking at investing in an emerging consumer technology, the #1 predictor of its success is if it has an application in the porn industry.

Porn is a lasting industry. If I was gonna bet on anything being around in 1000 years that exists today, that thing would be porn.
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CarefulNow
Posts: 780
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1/19/2013 8:10:03 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/16/2013 11:35:11 PM, jimtimmy wrote:
Sweden and Germany:

Social democracies with unrivaled quality of life, on either side of the pro-market fine-tuning.

2.) Free markets do work.

South Korea has free markets?

Singapore and Hong Kong:

Why not Latvia, which has an even lower tax revenue (% of GDP)-to-GDP ratio and has the lowest growth in the world, or Algeria, which has more growth than Hong Kong and Singapore despite having the highest tax revenue (% of GDP)-to-GDP-per-capita ratio in the world?

1.) Low taxes, low regulation, and weak unions lead to high levels of economic growth

I don't know about that, but it certainly leads to high levels of capital flight from other countries, which is clearly the source of Singapore and Hong Kong's success.
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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1/20/2013 8:13:59 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/19/2013 8:10:03 PM, CarefulNow wrote:
At 1/16/2013 11:35:11 PM, jimtimmy wrote:
Sweden and Germany:

Social democracies with unrivaled quality of life, on either side of the pro-market fine-tuning.

Sweden was poor until the 19th century when entrepreneurs gave them wealth. They have avoided all wars in that period also increasing wealth. I'm in Middle of this article, and so far it shows the increased economic liberalism is actually hurting the country.
http://mises.org...

Also, Germany has been very conservative in their recovery efforts from the recent recession. Guess who is their economic super power?


2.) Free markets do work.

South Korea has free markets?

Yes.

http://www.heritage.org...

Singapore and Hong Kong:

Why not Latvia, which has an even lower tax revenue (% of GDP)-to-GDP ratio and has the lowest growth in the world, or Algeria, which has more growth than Hong Kong and Singapore despite having the highest tax revenue (% of GDP)-to-GDP-per-capita ratio in the world?

"Latvia"s economic freedom score is 66.5, making its economy the 55th freest in the 2013 Index. Its score is 1.3 points better than last year due to significantly improved scores in the management of government spending and labor freedom. Latvia is ranked 25th out of 43 countries in the Europe region, and its overall score is above the world average. ... Latvia"s ongoing transition to a more dynamic and market-oriented economy has been facilitated by openness to foreign trade and the efficiency of business regulations designed to promote entrepreneurial activity. However, lingering corruption, exacerbated by a relatively inefficient judicial system, will undermine long-term competitiveness if left unaddressed."
http://www.heritage.org...

Compared to us, many of latavia's taxes are pretty low.
http://europa.eu...

Algeria has a lower corporate tax rate then us. And Algeria is being harmed by corruption and government intervention.
http://mises.ca...

I really don't see how their economy is growing. It grew 2000 - now but has a massive downward trend 1990 - present.
Their GDP growth is slowing fast since 2004.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com...

My original point was GDP per capita - which is nicer for you. But when looking at growth, I don't see how thu are any success.


1.) Low taxes, low regulation, and weak unions lead to high levels of economic growth

I don't know about that, but it certainly leads to high levels of capital flight from other countries, which is clearly the source of Singapore and Hong Kong's success.

Letting entrepreneurs coming to your country is what makes money...
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https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
CarefulNow
Posts: 780
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1/20/2013 9:45:07 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/20/2013 8:13:59 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Yes.

Your source ranks South Korea 34th (in general freedom; their market freedom score is much lower), far below the Democratic Party-led US. Are you a Democrat?

Compared to us, many of latavia's taxes are pretty low.

That's my point. They have extremely low taxes and have the lowest growth in the world.

Letting entrepreneurs coming to your country is what makes money...

That's my point. Capitalism isn't self-sufficient; it thrives on wealth nurtured elsewhere.