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Cyprus crises?

Cermank
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3/27/2013 4:38:20 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
I was expecting some discussion on that here. Now that the emergency loan has been extended, what do you think would this imply, geopolitically?
Cermank
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3/27/2013 4:51:35 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Personally , I think its just a matter of time before Cyprus discontinues from the Eurozone. How, is a question I am still hazy on. Euro,one isn't sustainable, that much is clear from the current scenerio. And once a country is forced to exit, it MIGHT lead to a domino effect IF the country sustains itself. In all probability, it will. The problem remains of the high cost of exiting. I don't think any EMF or any 'trioka' is going to let that happen. The situation is unstable, but how the stability would be bought on is still a question under consideration.

Still, once the banks open, I bet a few are going bankrupt. Their credibility isn't doing them any favours.
Cermank
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3/27/2013 4:58:53 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/27/2013 4:47:14 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
Isn't it Cypriot on Tues and Cyprus on Thursday?

https://www.google.co.in...

Yeah. Cypriot banks in Germany opened on Wednesday, and the Cyprus banks opening on Thursday amidst countless restrictions.
Cermank
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3/27/2013 5:05:41 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/27/2013 4:59:40 PM, Eitan_Zohar wrote:
Cypriot banks are reopening March 28th.

That's Cyprus Banks. Cypriot banks have already opened, according to the link above. No liquidating rush that was expected, so that's good news.
Skepsikyma
Posts: 8,286
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3/27/2013 5:36:47 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
I'm wondering where all of the wealthy Europeans are going to be stashing their money from here on out. Wasn't Cyprus a pretty huge tax haven, especially for Russians?
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -
wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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3/27/2013 5:45:49 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/27/2013 4:51:35 PM, Cermank wrote:
Personally , I think its just a matter of time before Cyprus discontinues from the Eurozone. How, is a question I am still hazy on. Euro,one isn't sustainable, that much is clear from the current scenerio. And once a country is forced to exit, it MIGHT lead to a domino effect IF the country sustains itself. In all probability, it will. The problem remains of the high cost of exiting. I don't think any EMF or any 'trioka' is going to let that happen. The situation is unstable, but how the stability would be bought on is still a question under consideration.

Still, once the banks open, I bet a few are going bankrupt. Their credibility isn't doing them any favours.

Develop a unified, federal system for all of Europe. Tie their fates together, and get a credible central bank up and running that can actually prescribe monetary policy.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
Cermank
Posts: 3,773
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3/27/2013 5:55:32 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/27/2013 5:45:49 PM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 3/27/2013 4:51:35 PM, Cermank wrote:
Personally , I think its just a matter of time before Cyprus discontinues from the Eurozone. How, is a question I am still hazy on. Euro,one isn't sustainable, that much is clear from the current scenerio. And once a country is forced to exit, it MIGHT lead to a domino effect IF the country sustains itself. In all probability, it will. The problem remains of the high cost of exiting. I don't think any EMF or any 'trioka' is going to let that happen. The situation is unstable, but how the stability would be bought on is still a question under consideration.

Still, once the banks open, I bet a few are going bankrupt. Their credibility isn't doing them any favours.

Develop a unified, federal system for all of Europe. Tie their fates together, and get a credible central bank up and running that can actually prescribe monetary policy.

Politically unpopular, but then, yeah. They'll basically be a single unified nation. With countries as states? Am I getting this right?
Cermank
Posts: 3,773
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3/27/2013 5:57:01 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/27/2013 5:36:47 PM, Skepsikyma wrote:
I'm wondering where all of the wealthy Europeans are going to be stashing their money from here on out. Wasn't Cyprus a pretty huge tax haven, especially for Russians?

Switzerland. Mauritius. Alot of other safe havens.
wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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3/27/2013 6:11:13 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/27/2013 5:55:32 PM, Cermank wrote:
At 3/27/2013 5:45:49 PM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 3/27/2013 4:51:35 PM, Cermank wrote:
Personally , I think its just a matter of time before Cyprus discontinues from the Eurozone. How, is a question I am still hazy on. Euro,one isn't sustainable, that much is clear from the current scenerio. And once a country is forced to exit, it MIGHT lead to a domino effect IF the country sustains itself. In all probability, it will. The problem remains of the high cost of exiting. I don't think any EMF or any 'trioka' is going to let that happen. The situation is unstable, but how the stability would be bought on is still a question under consideration.

Still, once the banks open, I bet a few are going bankrupt. Their credibility isn't doing them any favours.

Develop a unified, federal system for all of Europe. Tie their fates together, and get a credible central bank up and running that can actually prescribe monetary policy.

Politically unpopular, but then, yeah. They'll basically be a single unified nation. With countries as states? Am I getting this right?

Yes. To my knowledge, this was the most prominent criticism about the EU shortly after the beginning of the Euro crisis...that there was no central authority to to actually administer proper monetary policy. I think they have some sort of makeshift backdoor agreements going on to make do with what they have, but the political fragmentation is still extremely clear.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
Cermank
Posts: 3,773
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3/27/2013 6:21:12 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/27/2013 6:11:13 PM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 3/27/2013 5:55:32 PM, Cermank wrote:
At 3/27/2013 5:45:49 PM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 3/27/2013 4:51:35 PM, Cermank wrote:
Personally , I think its just a matter of time before Cyprus discontinues from the Eurozone. How, is a question I am still hazy on. Euro,one isn't sustainable, that much is clear from the current scenerio. And once a country is forced to exit, it MIGHT lead to a domino effect IF the country sustains itself. In all probability, it will. The problem remains of the high cost of exiting. I don't think any EMF or any 'trioka' is going to let that happen. The situation is unstable, but how the stability would be bought on is still a question under consideration.

Still, once the banks open, I bet a few are going bankrupt. Their credibility isn't doing them any favours.

Develop a unified, federal system for all of Europe. Tie their fates together, and get a credible central bank up and running that can actually prescribe monetary policy.

Politically unpopular, but then, yeah. They'll basically be a single unified nation. With countries as states? Am I getting this right?

Yes. To my knowledge, this was the most prominent criticism about the EU shortly after the beginning of the Euro crisis...that there was no central authority to to actually administer proper monetary policy. I think they have some sort of makeshift backdoor agreements going on to make do with what they have, but the political fragmentation is still extremely clear.

True. The Central authority would have to be adequately represented by all the nation states. Theoretically, it seems like a great altenative, but I can't help but think that a majority of states would believe it to be a loss to their autonomy. Maybe countries like Ireland, Spain and Greece would accept the proposal, but the stronger countries certainly won't. At least not now. A crises might push them to a brink, though.
wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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3/27/2013 6:29:30 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/27/2013 6:21:12 PM, Cermank wrote:
At 3/27/2013 6:11:13 PM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 3/27/2013 5:55:32 PM, Cermank wrote:
At 3/27/2013 5:45:49 PM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 3/27/2013 4:51:35 PM, Cermank wrote:
Personally , I think its just a matter of time before Cyprus discontinues from the Eurozone. How, is a question I am still hazy on. Euro,one isn't sustainable, that much is clear from the current scenerio. And once a country is forced to exit, it MIGHT lead to a domino effect IF the country sustains itself. In all probability, it will. The problem remains of the high cost of exiting. I don't think any EMF or any 'trioka' is going to let that happen. The situation is unstable, but how the stability would be bought on is still a question under consideration.

Still, once the banks open, I bet a few are going bankrupt. Their credibility isn't doing them any favours.

Develop a unified, federal system for all of Europe. Tie their fates together, and get a credible central bank up and running that can actually prescribe monetary policy.

Politically unpopular, but then, yeah. They'll basically be a single unified nation. With countries as states? Am I getting this right?

Yes. To my knowledge, this was the most prominent criticism about the EU shortly after the beginning of the Euro crisis...that there was no central authority to to actually administer proper monetary policy. I think they have some sort of makeshift backdoor agreements going on to make do with what they have, but the political fragmentation is still extremely clear.

True. The Central authority would have to be adequately represented by all the nation states. Theoretically, it seems like a great altenative, but I can't help but think that a majority of states would believe it to be a loss to their autonomy. Maybe countries like Ireland, Spain and Greece would accept the proposal, but the stronger countries certainly won't. At least not now. A crises might push them to a brink, though.

I remember reading a couple years ago that this was why Germany was being so obstinate with bailing out the PIIGS. The interpretation was that Germany was attempting to lay the foundations of a federal system that would put a lot more weight on demographics and economic considerations, both of which would heavily favor Germany. A US comparison would be a federal system where the House was (much) stronger than the Senate.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
Cermank
Posts: 3,773
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3/27/2013 6:38:51 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/27/2013 6:29:30 PM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 3/27/2013 6:21:12 PM, Cermank wrote:
At 3/27/2013 6:11:13 PM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 3/27/2013 5:55:32 PM, Cermank wrote:
At 3/27/2013 5:45:49 PM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 3/27/2013 4:51:35 PM, Cermank wrote:
Personally , I think its just a matter of time before Cyprus discontinues from the Eurozone. How, is a question I am still hazy on. Euro,one isn't sustainable, that much is clear from the current scenerio. And once a country is forced to exit, it MIGHT lead to a domino effect IF the country sustains itself. In all probability, it will. The problem remains of the high cost of exiting. I don't think any EMF or any 'trioka' is going to let that happen. The situation is unstable, but how the stability would be bought on is still a question under consideration.

Still, once the banks open, I bet a few are going bankrupt. Their credibility isn't doing them any favours.

Develop a unified, federal system for all of Europe. Tie their fates together, and get a credible central bank up and running that can actually prescribe monetary policy.

Politically unpopular, but then, yeah. They'll basically be a single unified nation. With countries as states? Am I getting this right?

Yes. To my knowledge, this was the most prominent criticism about the EU shortly after the beginning of the Euro crisis...that there was no central authority to to actually administer proper monetary policy. I think they have some sort of makeshift backdoor agreements going on to make do with what they have, but the political fragmentation is still extremely clear.

True. The Central authority would have to be adequately represented by all the nation states. Theoretically, it seems like a great altenative, but I can't help but think that a majority of states would believe it to be a loss to their autonomy. Maybe countries like Ireland, Spain and Greece would accept the proposal, but the stronger countries certainly won't. At least not now. A crises might push them to a brink, though.

I remember reading a couple years ago that this was why Germany was being so obstinate with bailing out the PIIGS. The interpretation was that Germany was attempting to lay the foundations of a federal system that would put a lot more weight on demographics and economic considerations, both of which would heavily favor Germany. A US comparison would be a federal system where the House was (much) stronger than the Senate.

Not a US citizen, so that doesn't exactly help me. But I get the gist. They're messed up. But, well, maybe even that would be better than the current mess where they have to bail someone out every month or with comparable frequency.

The problem is the bad loans. Maybe if they had the incentive to make good loans, and the bailout wasn't so easily available.
Cermank
Posts: 3,773
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3/28/2013 4:05:35 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
The banks opened. Without any liquidating rush, but that's because of the multiple restrictions to capital liquidity. The wall street actually cheered the opening of banks in Cyprus. The stock market in Cyprus is still closed though, and good good reasons. All in all, the best case scenerio. At least for now.
Cermank
Posts: 3,773
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3/29/2013 1:50:31 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
The president of Cyprus, Anastasiadel, said that they won't exit the Eurozone.

Pfft, as if they'd have a choice when the time comes. It would have no say once the Christian Greys of Eurozone decide to outst her.