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Unemployment Will Get Worse in 2014

DoubtingDave
Posts: 380
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8/10/2013 1:30:04 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
This is not good news for Democrats in the 2014 midterm election. This is what economists at Gallup reported


President Barack Obama gave a major economic policy speech yesterday. Here"s what he didn"t say, and probably won"t ever say: Businesses will not begin new, significant hiring this year or in 2014.

Business leaders around the country tell me they"re not thinking about new hires right now. Rather, their sole focus is on how to win new customers. Too few people know this, but employees follow customer growth, not the other way around. Most importantly, businesses want to survive. They"ve cut everything to the bone and stored cash, and they won"t risk anything until they experience customer growth. New hires don"t solve their problems.

Because of this, I would bet all of my Gallup stock that unemployment will get worse in 2014. Don"t expect the president to tell you that.

"But wait," you say. "Unemployment has begun to go down. That"s what I hear from the White House and Wall Street." Don"t buy it. Wall Street wants to keep inflating the latest stock bubble and the White House, regardless of its occupant, always has an interest in giving you the best possible employment picture.

As regular readers of this blog already know, the unemployment measure the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports is incomplete. The BLS defines unemployment as the percentage of people looking for a job who can"t find one. So, for instance, if you"ve given up on trying to find a job for the rest of the year, you"re not considered unemployed because you quit searching. In addition, if you mow my lawn and it took you one hour or longer to complete and I gave you at least $20 for the task, the federal government doesn"t count you as unemployed. That"s even if you"re an out-of-work engineer and lawn mowing is the only work you can get right now.

The closely followed, single BLS unemployment metric, now 7.6%, fails to reflect the actual state of things: Unemployment and underemployment is, according to Gallup, 17.2%. That means more than 20 million Americans are unemployed or grossly underemployed. And here"s a much more significant metric: only 44.7% of adults 18 years and older in the U.S. are in a full-time job, according to Gallup"s Payroll to Population (P2P) metric.

Bluntly, the jobs picture is not improving, despite what you hear in the news, and it will get worse. Yes, businesses are sitting on billions of dollars in cash and productivity gains and the stock market has been rallying. But those businesses are hoarding that cash because they still lack that all-important state of mind and spirit: confidence.

Here, Gallup"s findings aren"t much more promising. America"s 6 million small businesses are, by far, the biggest drivers of new job creation. Yet earlier this year, the Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index found 30% of small-business owners say they"re not hiring because they"re worried they may no longer be in business in 12 months. Moreover, new business startups -- driven by entrepreneurs" confidence -- have fallen below 400,000 per year, in my estimate, and the country needs a bare minimum of 1 million new startups annually to fix the employment problem. No confidence, no startups, no growth, no jobs.

What"s damaging business confidence? In that same Wells Fargo/Gallup survey, small-business owners say healthcare costs (54%) and taxes on small businesses (53%) are hurting their operating environment "a lot," making these the top two confidence-busters.

These data are simply the quantification of an American free-enterprise engine that desperately needs fuel. Too many businesses have lost their free-enterprise spirit, and subsequently their ability to take risks. And they"re not likely to get that confidence back until they"re far less burdened by healthcare costs and regulations -- and until America finally simplifies its tax code and makes taxes far less onerous on businesses.

Presidential policy speeches alone will not reignite free enterprise in America. Without confidence, risk-taking, and new customers, there won"t be new jobs.


http://thechairmansblog.gallup.com...

Even worse, Gallup reported the following regarding Obamacare:

1) More than 40% of uninsured are unaware they must get coverage http://www.gallup.com...

2) Forty-eight percent of U.S. small-business owners say the 2010 Affordable Care Act (ACA) is going to be bad for their business, compared with 9% who say it is going to be good, and 39% who expect no impact.

3) 52% of owners say the ACA is going to reduce the quality of healthcare they and their employees receive. This contrasts with 13% who feel it will improve the quality of care their employees get, and 30% who see no impact.

4) 55% of small-business owners expect the money they pay for healthcare to increase. Five percent expect their healthcare costs to decline, while 37% say the health law will have no impact on what they pay for healthcare.

5) When asked if they had taken any of five specific actions in response to the ACA, 41% of small-business owners say they have held off on hiring new employees and 38% have pulled back on plans to grow their business. One in five (19%) have reduced their number of employees and essentially the same number (18%) have cut employee hours in response to the healthcare law. One in four owners (24%) have thought about eliminating healthcare coverage for their employees.

http://www.gallup.com...

None of this is good news.
The Great Wall of Fail

"I have doubts that anti-semitism even exists" -GeoLaureate8

"Evolutionists think that people evolved from rocks" -Scotty

"And whats so bad about a Holy war? By Holy war, I mean a war which would aim to subdue others under Islam." -Ahmed.M

"The free market didn't create the massive wealth in the country, WW2 did." -malcomxy

"Independant federal regulators make our capitalist society possible." -Erik_Erikson
DetectableNinja
Posts: 6,043
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8/10/2013 1:46:31 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
We'll see.
Think'st thou heaven is such a glorious thing?
I tell thee, 'tis not half so fair as thou
Or any man that breathes on earth.

- Christopher Marlowe, Doctor Faustus
DanT
Posts: 5,693
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8/10/2013 4:13:11 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/10/2013 2:23:52 PM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
You don't know that.

I predict a recession within the next 2 years (mid 2015 at the latest).
"Chemical weapons are no different than any other types of weapons."~Lordknukle
Subutai
Posts: 3,235
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8/10/2013 4:30:24 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/10/2013 2:23:52 PM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
You don't know that.

There are definitely indications that the economy is slowing down - now whether or not this is going to lead to a full blown recession soon, it is too soon to tell.
I'm becoming less defined as days go by, fading away, and well you might say, I'm losing focus, kinda drifting into the abstract in terms of how I see myself.
wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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8/10/2013 5:49:51 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
I believe the major factor will be the housing market. If home prices rise to the point where new construction is encouraged, that will help the labor market. Also, the rise in home prices may signal a return to equity-based financing, i.e. more consumer spending, i.e. more economic activity.

The good news is that the housing market is experiencing a healthy recovery. The question is whether or not it will be enough to sustain economic growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com...
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
DanT
Posts: 5,693
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8/10/2013 6:15:21 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/10/2013 4:30:24 PM, Subutai wrote:
At 8/10/2013 2:23:52 PM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
You don't know that.

There are definitely indications that the economy is slowing down - now whether or not this is going to lead to a full blown recession soon, it is too soon to tell.

Output is a factor of capital and labor.
Short term Output is constant, as is the short term velocity of money.
Price = the Monetary Supply x Velocity / Output
If the demand curve increases, it will cause the short term supply curve to decrease, and the price will rise.

The short term Supply curve is the same as the marginal cost curve.
The demand curve is the same as the marginal utility curve
The Long term aggregate supply curve is inelastic, and the Long term aggregate = the potential output.

The expected price is the price level where the long term aggregate supply meets the short term aggregate supply.
When the expected price < the actual price, there is an economic boom.
When the expected price > the actual price, there is an economic bust.

Booms are unsustainable, and will eventually result in a bust. Busts cause unemployment and surpluses, while booms cause shortages.
"Chemical weapons are no different than any other types of weapons."~Lordknukle
DanT
Posts: 5,693
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8/10/2013 6:18:22 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/10/2013 6:15:21 PM, DanT wrote:
At 8/10/2013 4:30:24 PM, Subutai wrote:
At 8/10/2013 2:23:52 PM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
You don't know that.

There are definitely indications that the economy is slowing down - now whether or not this is going to lead to a full blown recession soon, it is too soon to tell.

Output is a factor of capital and labor.
Short term Output is constant, as is the short term velocity of money.
Price = the Monetary Supply x Velocity / Output
If the demand curve increases, it will cause the short term supply curve to decrease, and the price will rise.

The short term Supply curve is the same as the marginal cost curve.
The demand curve is the same as the marginal utility curve
The Long term aggregate supply curve is inelastic, and the Long term aggregate = the potential output.

The expected price is the price level where the long term aggregate supply meets the short term aggregate supply.
When the expected price < the actual price, there is an economic boom.
When the expected price > the actual price, there is an economic bust.

Booms are unsustainable, and will eventually result in a bust. Busts cause unemployment and surpluses, while booms cause shortages.

Sorry I got distracted and submitted that before I finished typing. The stimulus package caused malinvestments.
"Chemical weapons are no different than any other types of weapons."~Lordknukle
DoubtingDave
Posts: 380
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8/11/2013 1:05:59 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/10/2013 6:18:22 PM, DanT wrote:
At 8/10/2013 6:15:21 PM, DanT wrote:
At 8/10/2013 4:30:24 PM, Subutai wrote:
At 8/10/2013 2:23:52 PM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
You don't know that.

There are definitely indications that the economy is slowing down - now whether or not this is going to lead to a full blown recession soon, it is too soon to tell.

Output is a factor of capital and labor.
Short term Output is constant, as is the short term velocity of money.
Price = the Monetary Supply x Velocity / Output
If the demand curve increases, it will cause the short term supply curve to decrease, and the price will rise.

The short term Supply curve is the same as the marginal cost curve.
The demand curve is the same as the marginal utility curve
The Long term aggregate supply curve is inelastic, and the Long term aggregate = the potential output.

The expected price is the price level where the long term aggregate supply meets the short term aggregate supply.
When the expected price < the actual price, there is an economic boom.
When the expected price > the actual price, there is an economic bust.

Booms are unsustainable, and will eventually result in a bust. Busts cause unemployment and surpluses, while booms cause shortages.

Sorry I got distracted and submitted that before I finished typing. The stimulus package caused malinvestments.

So how can we fix the boom-bust cycle?
The Great Wall of Fail

"I have doubts that anti-semitism even exists" -GeoLaureate8

"Evolutionists think that people evolved from rocks" -Scotty

"And whats so bad about a Holy war? By Holy war, I mean a war which would aim to subdue others under Islam." -Ahmed.M

"The free market didn't create the massive wealth in the country, WW2 did." -malcomxy

"Independant federal regulators make our capitalist society possible." -Erik_Erikson
DanT
Posts: 5,693
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8/11/2013 1:25:50 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/11/2013 1:05:59 PM, DoubtingDave wrote:
At 8/10/2013 6:18:22 PM, DanT wrote:
At 8/10/2013 6:15:21 PM, DanT wrote:
At 8/10/2013 4:30:24 PM, Subutai wrote:
At 8/10/2013 2:23:52 PM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
You don't know that.

There are definitely indications that the economy is slowing down - now whether or not this is going to lead to a full blown recession soon, it is too soon to tell.

Output is a factor of capital and labor.
Short term Output is constant, as is the short term velocity of money.
Price = the Monetary Supply x Velocity / Output
If the demand curve increases, it will cause the short term supply curve to decrease, and the price will rise.

The short term Supply curve is the same as the marginal cost curve.
The demand curve is the same as the marginal utility curve
The Long term aggregate supply curve is inelastic, and the Long term aggregate = the potential output.

The expected price is the price level where the long term aggregate supply meets the short term aggregate supply.
When the expected price < the actual price, there is an economic boom.
When the expected price > the actual price, there is an economic bust.

Booms are unsustainable, and will eventually result in a bust. Busts cause unemployment and surpluses, while booms cause shortages.

Sorry I got distracted and submitted that before I finished typing. The stimulus package caused malinvestments.

So how can we fix the boom-bust cycle?

The only real way to fix the boom and bust cycle is to create a monetary system where the % change in monetary supply = the % change in transactions.

Price = Monetary Supply x Velocity of Money (constant in the short run) / Transactions (constant in the short run)

Expected Price (constant in the short run) = Monetary Supply x Velocity of Money (constant in the short run) / Potential Transactions

The monetary supply = Cash + Deposits

Therefore inflation is eliminated when the % change in (Cash + Deposits) = the % change in transactions

I have proposed eliminating cash, so that we only use electronic transactions. Those electronic transactions can be automatically monitored and counted. The deposits could than be automatically adjusted according to changes in the volume of transactions.

Assuming Cash is constant, with a value of 0, inflation would be eliminated when the % change in deposits = the % change in transactions.
"Chemical weapons are no different than any other types of weapons."~Lordknukle
DoubtingDave
Posts: 380
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8/11/2013 1:46:14 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/11/2013 1:25:50 PM, DanT wrote:
At 8/11/2013 1:05:59 PM, DoubtingDave wrote:
At 8/10/2013 6:18:22 PM, DanT wrote:
At 8/10/2013 6:15:21 PM, DanT wrote:
At 8/10/2013 4:30:24 PM, Subutai wrote:
At 8/10/2013 2:23:52 PM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
You don't know that.

There are definitely indications that the economy is slowing down - now whether or not this is going to lead to a full blown recession soon, it is too soon to tell.

Output is a factor of capital and labor.
Short term Output is constant, as is the short term velocity of money.
Price = the Monetary Supply x Velocity / Output
If the demand curve increases, it will cause the short term supply curve to decrease, and the price will rise.

The short term Supply curve is the same as the marginal cost curve.
The demand curve is the same as the marginal utility curve
The Long term aggregate supply curve is inelastic, and the Long term aggregate = the potential output.

The expected price is the price level where the long term aggregate supply meets the short term aggregate supply.
When the expected price < the actual price, there is an economic boom.
When the expected price > the actual price, there is an economic bust.

Booms are unsustainable, and will eventually result in a bust. Busts cause unemployment and surpluses, while booms cause shortages.

Sorry I got distracted and submitted that before I finished typing. The stimulus package caused malinvestments.

So how can we fix the boom-bust cycle?

The only real way to fix the boom and bust cycle is to create a monetary system where the % change in monetary supply = the % change in transactions.

Price = Monetary Supply x Velocity of Money (constant in the short run) / Transactions (constant in the short run)

Expected Price (constant in the short run) = Monetary Supply x Velocity of Money (constant in the short run) / Potential Transactions

The monetary supply = Cash + Deposits

Therefore inflation is eliminated when the % change in (Cash + Deposits) = the % change in transactions

I have proposed eliminating cash, so that we only use electronic transactions. Those electronic transactions can be automatically monitored and counted. The deposits could than be automatically adjusted according to changes in the volume of transactions.

Assuming Cash is constant, with a value of 0, inflation would be eliminated when the % change in deposits = the % change in transactions.

So in other words, eliminate paper money all together and simply have a world-wide currency?
The Great Wall of Fail

"I have doubts that anti-semitism even exists" -GeoLaureate8

"Evolutionists think that people evolved from rocks" -Scotty

"And whats so bad about a Holy war? By Holy war, I mean a war which would aim to subdue others under Islam." -Ahmed.M

"The free market didn't create the massive wealth in the country, WW2 did." -malcomxy

"Independant federal regulators make our capitalist society possible." -Erik_Erikson
DanT
Posts: 5,693
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8/12/2013 11:54:36 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/11/2013 1:46:14 PM, DoubtingDave wrote:
At 8/11/2013 1:25:50 PM, DanT wrote:
At 8/11/2013 1:05:59 PM, DoubtingDave wrote:
At 8/10/2013 6:18:22 PM, DanT wrote:
At 8/10/2013 6:15:21 PM, DanT wrote:
At 8/10/2013 4:30:24 PM, Subutai wrote:
At 8/10/2013 2:23:52 PM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
You don't know that.

There are definitely indications that the economy is slowing down - now whether or not this is going to lead to a full blown recession soon, it is too soon to tell.

Output is a factor of capital and labor.
Short term Output is constant, as is the short term velocity of money.
Price = the Monetary Supply x Velocity / Output
If the demand curve increases, it will cause the short term supply curve to decrease, and the price will rise.

The short term Supply curve is the same as the marginal cost curve.
The demand curve is the same as the marginal utility curve
The Long term aggregate supply curve is inelastic, and the Long term aggregate = the potential output.

The expected price is the price level where the long term aggregate supply meets the short term aggregate supply.
When the expected price < the actual price, there is an economic boom.
When the expected price > the actual price, there is an economic bust.

Booms are unsustainable, and will eventually result in a bust. Busts cause unemployment and surpluses, while booms cause shortages.

Sorry I got distracted and submitted that before I finished typing. The stimulus package caused malinvestments.

So how can we fix the boom-bust cycle?

The only real way to fix the boom and bust cycle is to create a monetary system where the % change in monetary supply = the % change in transactions.

Price = Monetary Supply x Velocity of Money (constant in the short run) / Transactions (constant in the short run)

Expected Price (constant in the short run) = Monetary Supply x Velocity of Money (constant in the short run) / Potential Transactions

The monetary supply = Cash + Deposits

Therefore inflation is eliminated when the % change in (Cash + Deposits) = the % change in transactions

I have proposed eliminating cash, so that we only use electronic transactions. Those electronic transactions can be automatically monitored and counted. The deposits could than be automatically adjusted according to changes in the volume of transactions.

Assuming Cash is constant, with a value of 0, inflation would be eliminated when the % change in deposits = the % change in transactions.

So in other words, eliminate paper money all together and simply have a world-wide currency?

While a global currency is part of what I propose, it is not required for the system to work. Ideally there would be no currency exchange, and the world would operate on one global currency. This would eliminate the transaction costs and other inefficiencies arising from currency exchange.

It is not as simple as eliminating paper money. In order for the system to eliminate the boom and bust cycle the balance of digital deposits must automatically change in proportion to the changes in the volume of electronic transactions.
"Chemical weapons are no different than any other types of weapons."~Lordknukle
twocupcakes
Posts: 2,750
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8/12/2013 6:28:21 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/11/2013 1:46:14 PM, DoubtingDave wrote:
At 8/11/2013 1:25:50 PM, DanT wrote:
At 8/11/2013 1:05:59 PM, DoubtingDave wrote:
At 8/10/2013 6:18:22 PM, DanT wrote:
At 8/10/2013 6:15:21 PM, DanT wrote:
At 8/10/2013 4:30:24 PM, Subutai wrote:
At 8/10/2013 2:23:52 PM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
You don't know that.

There are definitely indications that the economy is slowing down - now whether or not this is going to lead to a full blown recession soon, it is too soon to tell.

Output is a factor of capital and labor.
Short term Output is constant, as is the short term velocity of money.
Price = the Monetary Supply x Velocity / Output
If the demand curve increases, it will cause the short term supply curve to decrease, and the price will rise.

The short term Supply curve is the same as the marginal cost curve.
The demand curve is the same as the marginal utility curve
The Long term aggregate supply curve is inelastic, and the Long term aggregate = the potential output.

The expected price is the price level where the long term aggregate supply meets the short term aggregate supply.
When the expected price < the actual price, there is an economic boom.
When the expected price > the actual price, there is an economic bust.

Booms are unsustainable, and will eventually result in a bust. Busts cause unemployment and surpluses, while booms cause shortages.

Sorry I got distracted and submitted that before I finished typing. The stimulus package caused malinvestments.

So how can we fix the boom-bust cycle?

The only real way to fix the boom and bust cycle is to create a monetary system where the % change in monetary supply = the % change in transactions.

Price = Monetary Supply x Velocity of Money (constant in the short run) / Transactions (constant in the short run)

Expected Price (constant in the short run) = Monetary Supply x Velocity of Money (constant in the short run) / Potential Transactions

The monetary supply = Cash + Deposits

Therefore inflation is eliminated when the % change in (Cash + Deposits) = the % change in transactions

I have proposed eliminating cash, so that we only use electronic transactions. Those electronic transactions can be automatically monitored and counted. The deposits could than be automatically adjusted according to changes in the volume of transactions.

Assuming Cash is constant, with a value of 0, inflation would be eliminated when the % change in deposits = the % change in transactions.

So in other words, eliminate paper money all together and simply have a world-wide currency?

This will not work! What if there is a boom in Japan, and a bust in Europe? Or, a any other differences. A common currency is one reason why Europe remains in crisis. If Labor, is not easily transferred from one area to another, one that is busting to one that is booming, a common currency will not work!
DoubtingDave
Posts: 380
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8/13/2013 9:16:59 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/12/2013 6:28:21 PM, twocupcakes wrote:
At 8/11/2013 1:46:14 PM, DoubtingDave wrote:
At 8/11/2013 1:25:50 PM, DanT wrote:
At 8/11/2013 1:05:59 PM, DoubtingDave wrote:
At 8/10/2013 6:18:22 PM, DanT wrote:
At 8/10/2013 6:15:21 PM, DanT wrote:
At 8/10/2013 4:30:24 PM, Subutai wrote:
At 8/10/2013 2:23:52 PM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
You don't know that.

There are definitely indications that the economy is slowing down - now whether or not this is going to lead to a full blown recession soon, it is too soon to tell.

Output is a factor of capital and labor.
Short term Output is constant, as is the short term velocity of money.
Price = the Monetary Supply x Velocity / Output
If the demand curve increases, it will cause the short term supply curve to decrease, and the price will rise.

The short term Supply curve is the same as the marginal cost curve.
The demand curve is the same as the marginal utility curve
The Long term aggregate supply curve is inelastic, and the Long term aggregate = the potential output.

The expected price is the price level where the long term aggregate supply meets the short term aggregate supply.
When the expected price < the actual price, there is an economic boom.
When the expected price > the actual price, there is an economic bust.

Booms are unsustainable, and will eventually result in a bust. Busts cause unemployment and surpluses, while booms cause shortages.

Sorry I got distracted and submitted that before I finished typing. The stimulus package caused malinvestments.

So how can we fix the boom-bust cycle?

The only real way to fix the boom and bust cycle is to create a monetary system where the % change in monetary supply = the % change in transactions.

Price = Monetary Supply x Velocity of Money (constant in the short run) / Transactions (constant in the short run)

Expected Price (constant in the short run) = Monetary Supply x Velocity of Money (constant in the short run) / Potential Transactions

The monetary supply = Cash + Deposits

Therefore inflation is eliminated when the % change in (Cash + Deposits) = the % change in transactions

I have proposed eliminating cash, so that we only use electronic transactions. Those electronic transactions can be automatically monitored and counted. The deposits could than be automatically adjusted according to changes in the volume of transactions.

Assuming Cash is constant, with a value of 0, inflation would be eliminated when the % change in deposits = the % change in transactions.

So in other words, eliminate paper money all together and simply have a world-wide currency?

This will not work! What if there is a boom in Japan, and a bust in Europe? Or, a any other differences. A common currency is one reason why Europe remains in crisis. If Labor, is not easily transferred from one area to another, one that is busting to one that is booming, a common currency will not work!

That was my biggest concern as well. I am highly skeptical of that. I think each country
should be allowed to regulate its own currency.
The Great Wall of Fail

"I have doubts that anti-semitism even exists" -GeoLaureate8

"Evolutionists think that people evolved from rocks" -Scotty

"And whats so bad about a Holy war? By Holy war, I mean a war which would aim to subdue others under Islam." -Ahmed.M

"The free market didn't create the massive wealth in the country, WW2 did." -malcomxy

"Independant federal regulators make our capitalist society possible." -Erik_Erikson
William05
Posts: 1
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8/16/2013 11:13:01 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
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Shadowguynick
Posts: 516
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8/17/2013 7:47:35 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
All I want to say is that there are reasons they don't include people who aren't looking for jobs. Because they aren't looking for jobs. The statistic is how many people can't find jobs, not how many people wouldn't be able to get a job. Those who are grossly underemployed probably should be counted though.
shakyasun
Posts: 3
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8/19/2013 12:00:35 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
In Nepal, we do have the unemployment problem. Although we do have laws regarding the Right to employment. But still we do not unemployment allowances. To increase the employment the infrastructure can not be set up till now. lack of industry, lack of human resources, lack of new technology, lack of skill creates the unemployment.

There for many people are flew away to different country in search of employment. There are many cause regarding the unemployment the major reason is Political instability which block the way of foreign investment.

From these issue we can say the unemployment will get worse in 2014 than in present.