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Automation- Here it comes

slo1
Posts: 4,361
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3/18/2014 9:36:08 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
http://www.economist.com...

http://www.businessweek.com...

Recent studies show almost 50% of US jobs at risk of being performed by automation/robots in next few decades. The scary thing about this is it is in roles we previously thought untouchable and largely in the middle class, such as Loan Officers. We are headed towards a big shift. Time to take a look at the skills one has and gain some new ones if at risk of being done by a robot.

I know that economists are constantly saying this just results in a shift of labor, but there is no algorithm I know that doesn't' eventually have computers creating new technology and repairing technology. What do we all do when the extremely complex stuff is done by computers?

Don't need to answer that yet, but in the meantime don't plan on being a Loan Officer or other career with high odds of being automated.
BigDave80
Posts: 105
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3/18/2014 11:38:54 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Humans have infinite wants and needs... There will always be work available for the vast majority of the working population.
progressivedem22
Posts: 1,304
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3/19/2014 8:54:31 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 3/18/2014 11:38:54 PM, BigDave80 wrote:
Humans have infinite wants and needs... There will always be work available for the vast majority of the working population.

I think "infinite" may be going a bit far, but sure, that's accurate generally. But there's a finite supply of capital and income by which to purchase that capital; so, while it may be plausible to say that people who manage whatever automation is developed over the next 50 years will be employed, how can you be so certain that others -- particularly low-skilled labor -- will be employed? That's contrary to the Industrial Revolution, of course, where it was actually the opposite -- low-skill labor demand boomed, high-skilled labor demand lagged -- but my inference is that operating the technology of the future will require strenuous training.
Topkek
Posts: 8
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3/19/2014 3:36:35 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 3/19/2014 8:54:31 AM, progressivedem22 wrote:
At 3/18/2014 11:38:54 PM, BigDave80 wrote:
Humans have infinite wants and needs... There will always be work available for the vast majority of the working population.

I think "infinite" may be going a bit far, but sure, that's accurate generally. But there's a finite supply of capital and income by which to purchase that capital; so, while it may be plausible to say that people who manage whatever automation is developed over the next 50 years will be employed, how can you be so certain that others -- particularly low-skilled labor -- will be employed? That's contrary to the Industrial Revolution, of course, where it was actually the opposite -- low-skill labor demand boomed, high-skilled labor demand lagged -- but my inference is that operating the technology of the future will require strenuous training.

The difference between the technology that propelled the Industrial Revolution and the technology we are developing now is based on required human input. When we can develop computers that can calculate complex algorithms that we'd otherwise require a person with a Mathematics PhD to do, or when we use tablets to replace cashiers, then we no longer need human capital for those jobs outside from maintenance because we are eliminating or at least significantly reducing human capital required for the operation of said technology. Yes, you can say that someone has to build those tablets in the first place, which would indeed create more jobs, but those jobs will most likely go to a Taiwanese manufacturing firm, so it is still a net loss of domestic jobs for us.
slo1
Posts: 4,361
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3/24/2014 2:41:49 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 3/18/2014 11:38:54 PM, BigDave80 wrote:
Humans have infinite wants and needs... There will always be work available for the vast majority of the working population.

Needs and wants have nothing to do with available jobs. It may drive demand, but as these skilled jobs start getting automated like truck driving or loan officers, what happens?

- super skilled jobs (for lack of better term) become more prevalent. Education and capability are even more of an asset. In the long term even super skilled jobs become at risk.

- low skilled jobs remain prevalent because the cost of implementing automation for skilled jobs has better ROI.

It is true that technology has helped create a better standard of living for many people because of increases in productivity and creating new jobs, but there is no theory established that technology improvements result in a linear relationship to standard of living indefinitely.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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3/24/2014 2:54:16 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 3/18/2014 9:36:08 AM, slo1 wrote:
http://www.economist.com...

http://www.businessweek.com...


Recent studies show almost 50% of US jobs at risk of being performed by automation/robots in next few decades. The scary thing about this is it is in roles we previously thought untouchable and largely in the middle class, such as Loan Officers. We are headed towards a big shift. Time to take a look at the skills one has and gain some new ones if at risk of being done by a robot.

I know that economists are constantly saying this just results in a shift of labor, but there is no algorithm I know that doesn't' eventually have computers creating new technology and repairing technology. What do we all do when the extremely complex stuff is done by computers?

Don't need to answer that yet, but in the meantime don't plan on being a Loan Officer or other career with high odds of being automated.

Of course loan officers can be automated. Why can't they be? They don't do anything but follow some script.

Now...if they were to underwrite like they used to, and not simply go "credit score is okay, so is income-to-debt ratio, therefore, you are approved", then they would be less replaceable.
My work here is, finally, done.
slo1
Posts: 4,361
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3/24/2014 2:59:58 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 3/24/2014 2:54:16 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
At 3/18/2014 9:36:08 AM, slo1 wrote:
http://www.economist.com...

http://www.businessweek.com...


Recent studies show almost 50% of US jobs at risk of being performed by automation/robots in next few decades. The scary thing about this is it is in roles we previously thought untouchable and largely in the middle class, such as Loan Officers. We are headed towards a big shift. Time to take a look at the skills one has and gain some new ones if at risk of being done by a robot.

I know that economists are constantly saying this just results in a shift of labor, but there is no algorithm I know that doesn't' eventually have computers creating new technology and repairing technology. What do we all do when the extremely complex stuff is done by computers?

Don't need to answer that yet, but in the meantime don't plan on being a Loan Officer or other career with high odds of being automated.

Of course loan officers can be automated. Why can't they be? They don't do anything but follow some script.

Now...if they were to underwrite like they used to, and not simply go "credit score is okay, so is income-to-debt ratio, therefore, you are approved", then they would be less replaceable.

I think that is the point, a computer can not only underwrite the risk without moral hazzard of under reporting the risk, but they can automatically learn from defaults and adjust risk factors in real time. It may seem rather obvious now, but 10 years ago there were not many people saying that type of judgement could be done by AI. Here is how many jobs are at risk, and at $70,000 on average, it is a pretty bid deal for those in the field.

http://www.bls.gov...
Employment (1)Employment
RSE (3)Mean hourly
wageMean annual
wage (2)Wage RSE (3)
286,6701.2 %$33.82$70,3501.0 %
wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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3/29/2014 10:32:18 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 3/18/2014 9:36:08 AM, slo1 wrote:
http://www.economist.com...

http://www.businessweek.com...


Recent studies show almost 50% of US jobs at risk of being performed by automation/robots in next few decades. The scary thing about this is it is in roles we previously thought untouchable and largely in the middle class, such as Loan Officers. We are headed towards a big shift. Time to take a look at the skills one has and gain some new ones if at risk of being done by a robot.

I know that economists are constantly saying this just results in a shift of labor, but there is no algorithm I know that doesn't' eventually have computers creating new technology and repairing technology. What do we all do when the extremely complex stuff is done by computers?

Don't need to answer that yet, but in the meantime don't plan on being a Loan Officer or other career with high odds of being automated.

We program the computers to tell them what to do. The more complex the computing, the more complex the code.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
slo1
Posts: 4,361
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3/31/2014 9:52:22 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 3/29/2014 10:32:18 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 3/18/2014 9:36:08 AM, slo1 wrote:
http://www.economist.com...

http://www.businessweek.com...


Recent studies show almost 50% of US jobs at risk of being performed by automation/robots in next few decades. The scary thing about this is it is in roles we previously thought untouchable and largely in the middle class, such as Loan Officers. We are headed towards a big shift. Time to take a look at the skills one has and gain some new ones if at risk of being done by a robot.

I know that economists are constantly saying this just results in a shift of labor, but there is no algorithm I know that doesn't' eventually have computers creating new technology and repairing technology. What do we all do when the extremely complex stuff is done by computers?

Don't need to answer that yet, but in the meantime don't plan on being a Loan Officer or other career with high odds of being automated.

We program the computers to tell them what to do. The more complex the computing, the more complex the code.

Until the day you write the program to allow it to program itself, aka learn.
Linkish1O2
Posts: 2,003
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3/31/2014 9:53:13 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Agh stop breaking my streak gooooossshhhhh.
"I am a mystery and to unlock the mystery at my core, one must simply embrace slendermans hug with no fear."- me

"I hearby declare myself a phantom in the darkness."-me
Jevinigh
Posts: 14
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3/31/2014 8:17:56 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 3/18/2014 11:38:54 PM, BigDave80 wrote:
Humans have infinite wants and needs... There will always be work available for the vast majority of the working population.

This is a hope and a prayer, or a reluctance to accept the reality of the situation.
Through out all of time and space, through the infinity of all that is and was and could have been, I met you. It was not by mistake we found each other here.
R0b1Billion
Posts: 3,733
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4/2/2014 3:55:30 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
The relevance escapes me. Automation simply employs more machines which, in turn, require more people to create and service them.
Beliefs in a nutshell:
- The Ends never justify the Means.
- Objectivity is secondary to subjectivity.
- The War on Drugs is the worst policy in the U.S.
- Most people worship technology as a religion.
- Computers will never become sentient.
slo1
Posts: 4,361
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4/2/2014 4:38:23 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/2/2014 3:55:30 PM, R0b1Billion wrote:
The relevance escapes me. Automation simply employs more machines which, in turn, require more people to create and service them.

Not exactly. In the example of eliminating Loan Officers there is not a one to one machine replacement. That replacement is software, which needs hardware, but there is no reason to think the equivalent of many Loan Officers could not be covered by one piece of hardware.

Oh and by the way, the function of having people around to tend to server farms, well that is getting automated too.

Take an automated car. There would be no reason to think there would require more auto service technicians. Make them modular and self diagnosing. Eventually they could automatically drive into a shop, communicate int he bay and a robot could replace the modular part.

The fundamental problem is that automation in the long term does not a provide a linear relationship to creating new jobs. If it were there would be no reason to automate as the costs would just move to the costs of buying and servicing the automation and there would be no net increase in productivity.
R0b1Billion
Posts: 3,733
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4/2/2014 4:57:38 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/2/2014 4:38:23 PM, slo1 wrote:
At 4/2/2014 3:55:30 PM, R0b1Billion wrote:
The relevance escapes me. Automation simply employs more machines which, in turn, require more people to create and service them.

Not exactly. In the example of eliminating Loan Officers there is not a one to one machine replacement. That replacement is software, which needs hardware, but there is no reason to think the equivalent of many Loan Officers could not be covered by one piece of hardware.

Using software to automate is good. But software isn't the entire picture here...

Oh and by the way, the function of having people around to tend to server farms, well that is getting automated too.

Take an automated car. There would be no reason to think there would require more auto service technicians. Make them modular and self diagnosing. Eventually they could automatically drive into a shop, communicate int he bay and a robot could replace the modular part.

I don't see this as you do. All these robots need people to make them too. I'm all for modular and standardized production (capitalism precludes this, unfortunately, which is why every year your auto uses slightly different parts and I can't even change the radio in my dash without needing a professional to do it for me).

The fundamental problem is that automation in the long term does not a provide a linear relationship to creating new jobs. If it were there would be no reason to automate as the costs would just move to the costs of buying and servicing the automation and there would be no net increase in productivity.

The only impetus in our capitalistic system is profit. Jobs should be a negative aspect of economics (who wants more work to do?), but it is actually seen as positive by almost everybody because everybody is looking for more money to buy more stuff that they really don't need!

What I see in our society is more machines, more "stuff," and more jobs to make that stuff. I can buy a dishwasher to wash my plates, eliminating a job of mine, but does that really make less work for society in general? Consider the mining of materials, construction, distribution, sales, maintenance, and disposal of said machines. And the work it saves me is arguably something I really didn't need to be saved from anyway. Washing dishes is sort of a natural job that most normal people have time to do after they eat, as opposed to the job of having to work in a factory making a dishwasher.

As
Beliefs in a nutshell:
- The Ends never justify the Means.
- Objectivity is secondary to subjectivity.
- The War on Drugs is the worst policy in the U.S.
- Most people worship technology as a religion.
- Computers will never become sentient.