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Secular Stagnation: Bernanke vs. Summers

ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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4/1/2015 7:57:57 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
I'm completely engrossed in this debate Ben Bernanke and Lawrence Summers are currently having about the merits of the secular-stagnation hypothesis -- the notion that full employment, price stability, and stable financial conditions cannot readily coexist due mainly to demographic forces applying downward pressure on the Wicksellian equilibrium interest rate.

I'm sympathetic to Summer's arguments, though Bernanke raises some excellent points -- particularly by citing a recent paper presented at the UChicago conference.

Bernanke's blog post: http://www.brookings.edu...

Summer's rebuttal: http://www.brookings.edu...

Thoughts?
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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slo1
Posts: 4,308
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4/6/2015 12:44:02 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
However, Summers argues that secular stagnation will ultimately reduce aggregate supply as well, as growth in the economy"s productive capacity is restrained by slow rates of capital formation and by the loss of workers" skills caused by long-term unemployment.
Bernanke

I think that somewhat misses the point. The economy's productive capacity can be restrained by non investment when there is plenty of capital to go around.

It seems to me that neither individual uses Japan as the poster child to identify how secular stagnation can happen. Japan companies are awash in cash due to low interest rates and Japanese intervention on their currency trying to keep exports a viable trade.

Despite this wages have not grown for decades. Granted there are other regulation which is hindering growth there such as requiring companies to provide 2 to 3 years of severance pay.

We don't have that same level of regulation in the US, but we too have slow capital growth and now stagnant wages despite negative and low real interest rates. It really makes one wonder.

I side more with Benanke when it is said and done, but I think when one tosses in the future of automation it changes the entire dynamics. There has to come to a point where the jobs created from creating and maintaining automation does not exceed the jobs lost from automation. There is no theoretical reason why the new jobs from automation would indefinitely make up for the lost jobs. secular stagnation may be the reality once that barrier is broken.
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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4/8/2015 7:08:23 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/8/2015 7:04:26 AM, slo1 wrote:
http://seekingalpha.com...

I'll respond to this when I get a free minute. I'm not the biggest David-Stockman fan, though..
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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mamasharifa
Posts: 2
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4/8/2015 2:35:21 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
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16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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4/8/2015 6:29:49 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
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Thanks. This helps me decides my opinion on the issue of sexular stagnation.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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4/8/2015 6:44:59 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/8/2015 6:29:49 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Thanks. This helps me decides my opinion on the issue of sexular stagnation.

Lmfao.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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4/8/2015 6:45:45 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/8/2015 6:44:59 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 4/8/2015 6:29:49 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Thanks. This helps me decides my opinion on the issue of sexular stagnation.

Lmfao.

What is your opinion on sexular stagnation?
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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4/8/2015 6:46:20 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/8/2015 6:45:45 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 4/8/2015 6:44:59 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 4/8/2015 6:29:49 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Thanks. This helps me decides my opinion on the issue of sexular stagnation.

Lmfao.

What is your opinion on sexular stagnation?

I think the jury is out.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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4/8/2015 6:47:03 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/8/2015 6:46:20 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 4/8/2015 6:45:45 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 4/8/2015 6:44:59 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 4/8/2015 6:29:49 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Thanks. This helps me decides my opinion on the issue of sexular stagnation.

Lmfao.

What is your opinion on sexular stagnation?

I think the jury is out.

I am talking about sexular stagnation not secular stagnation silly goose! Didn't you read the strong argument from the bot above?
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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4/8/2015 6:48:44 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/8/2015 6:47:03 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 4/8/2015 6:46:20 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 4/8/2015 6:45:45 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 4/8/2015 6:44:59 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 4/8/2015 6:29:49 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Thanks. This helps me decides my opinion on the issue of sexular stagnation.

Lmfao.

What is your opinion on sexular stagnation?

I think the jury is out.

I am talking about sexular stagnation not secular stagnation silly goose! Didn't you read the strong argument from the bot above?

Yes, lol. The jury isn't out on secular stagnation -- that's happening, though it's likely from the supply side (i.e., fall in potential). On sexular stagnation, I think it's a different story.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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4/8/2015 6:53:17 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/8/2015 6:48:44 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 4/8/2015 6:47:03 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 4/8/2015 6:46:20 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 4/8/2015 6:45:45 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 4/8/2015 6:44:59 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 4/8/2015 6:29:49 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Thanks. This helps me decides my opinion on the issue of sexular stagnation.

Lmfao.

What is your opinion on sexular stagnation?

I think the jury is out.

I am talking about sexular stagnation not secular stagnation silly goose! Didn't you read the strong argument from the bot above?

Yes, lol. The jury isn't out on secular stagnation -- that's happening, though it's likely from the supply side (i.e., fall in potential). On sexular stagnation, I think it's a different story.

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https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross