Total Posts:4|Showing Posts:1-4
Jump to topic:

Employment

Lee001
Posts: 3,168
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
6/1/2015 7:00:16 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
So, 2014 was the best year for employment since the 90's. Do you think 2015 is doing any better?
"Condoms are societal constructs created by the government to restrain 'Murican freedom!"-SolonKR

"But I jest and digress (sick rhymes, yo); every boob is equal in the eyes of the Lord."- SolonKR

"Oh Hey, Seeing Artichokes Makes Me Want to Have Sex."- SolonKR

"Yep, but anyone who touches my hair immediately ascends to the heavens..You're already an angel, so touching my hair can do nothing <3" -SolonKR

My hubby Hayd <3 <3
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
6/1/2015 7:28:14 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/1/2015 7:00:16 PM, Lee001 wrote:
So, 2014 was the best year for employment since the 90's. Do you think 2015 is doing any better?

There's a distinction to be made here. First, it wasn't the "best year for employment since the 90s." That suggests that the job market overall was better than it had been since the 90s, but that's not the case. The rate of job *growth* was faster than at any time since 1999, which makes some sense because of the extent to which labor input has been underutilized over recent years - to some extent, it's "catch up" employment - but the point is that we're looking not at the level of the aggregate itself, but at the derivative of the aggregate.

Second, this isn't really a matter of "thinking" 2015 is doing any better. The jobs numbers have been okay - about 200k or so per month, sans March which was horrid: around 126k if memory serves. Wage growth hasn't been to shabby, but is still terrible if you draw a trend line through it, which is obviously what we should be doing in the same way we would "look through" yet another Q1 contraction (though, admittedly, residual seasonality gives us reason to do that).

But, the short answer to your question is "no, not quite," though that could be transitory - i.e., falling oil, appreciating dollar, West Coast Port slowdown, and horrid weather were inherently transitory factors that dragged down overall growth, and thus job growth (though the relation between employment and GDP is a bit more complex than that, admittedly), but we could see the year up around 2.5 to 3 percent nevertheless, in which case employment stays constant at around 200k, right around where it was last year's. That's my prediction, at least.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
lannan13
Posts: 23,017
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
6/2/2015 8:08:24 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/1/2015 7:00:16 PM, Lee001 wrote:
So, 2014 was the best year for employment since the 90's. Do you think 2015 is doing any better?

lol, no. We're heading into another economic recession. I mean have you seen the lag in buisness and such. http://www.wsj.com...
-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-Lannan13'S SIGNATURE-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-

If the sky's the limit then why do we have footprints on the Moon? I'm shooting my aspirations for the stars.

"If you are going through hell, keep going." "Sir Winston Churchill

"No one can make you feel inferior without your consent." "Eleanor Roosevelt

Topics I want to debate. (http://tinyurl.com...)
-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~
Fly
Posts: 2,042
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
6/2/2015 5:34:16 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/2/2015 8:08:24 AM, lannan13 wrote:
At 6/1/2015 7:00:16 PM, Lee001 wrote:
So, 2014 was the best year for employment since the 90's. Do you think 2015 is doing any better?

lol, no. We're heading into another economic recession. I mean have you seen the lag in buisness and such. http://www.wsj.com...

The link you provided does not support your claim that we are headed into another recession. Even the description of the video notes that this is the third such contraction since the recession-- meaning that GDP has rebounded the two times prior to now, and there is no reason it won't again.
"You don't have a right to be a jerk."
--Religion Forum's hypocrite extraordinaire serving up lulz