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Greek Referendum: Live Results

ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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7/5/2015 1:58:17 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
http://www.theguardian.com...

With 50.8% of votes reporting on "whether to accept the outline of the agreement submitted by the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund at the Eurogroup of 25/06/1":

Yes: 38.76%
No: 61.24%

Suffice it to say, it looks as though the Greeks will reject this referendum. Notwithstanding the fact that the latest Troika bailout proposal is utter rubbish, this is a horrible move on part of the Greeks: one that will almost surely lead them to them leaving euro, spawning contagious throughout the European periphery and safe-haven flows to the U.S., which will appreciate the dollar and reduce net exports. This isn't about ideological purity or even whether austerity is the correct move: surely, it is not. The economics of the Greek debacle were never complex, and we always knew that absent an independent, credible monetary regime and without the ability to borrow in its own currency, that austerity would be extremely deleterious to growth prospects. However, the political ramifications mandate some degree of sanity, and that's something Tsipras hasn't shown thus far.

tl;dr: The Greeks are making a grave mistake, and it will cost them - and the global economy - dearly.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
johnlubba
Posts: 2,892
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7/6/2015 9:41:54 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 7/5/2015 1:58:17 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
http://www.theguardian.com...

With 50.8% of votes reporting on "whether to accept the outline of the agreement submitted by the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund at the Eurogroup of 25/06/1":

Yes: 38.76%
No: 61.24%

Suffice it to say, it looks as though the Greeks will reject this referendum. Notwithstanding the fact that the latest Troika bailout proposal is utter rubbish, this is a horrible move on part of the Greeks: one that will almost surely lead them to them leaving euro, spawning contagious throughout the European periphery and safe-haven flows to the U.S., which will appreciate the dollar and reduce net exports. This isn't about ideological purity or even whether austerity is the correct move: surely, it is not. The economics of the Greek debacle were never complex, and we always knew that absent an independent, credible monetary regime and without the ability to borrow in its own currency, that austerity would be extremely deleterious to growth prospects. However, the political ramifications mandate some degree of sanity, and that's something Tsipras hasn't shown thus far.

tl;dr: The Greeks are making a grave mistake, and it will cost them - and the global economy - dearly.

The Greeks are doing the right thing by rejecting the bail out deal which has been classed as blackmail by loan sharks and bullies. They have declared it unsustainable debt, are they expected to just roll with it, until they owe everything to the loan sharks. as well as live under extreme austerity in the meantime.

No, The Greeks have shown the guile and exposed the scheme of the euro bankers, who's aim is to eventually own and not to strengthen.

They could say yes to the deal and just be getting themselves into more and more debt which has harsh austerity measures attached to it. , a debt they know they can't repay until eventually they are consumed by debt and owned by their creditors.

The Euro is a failure and the Greeks are doing the right thing by exposing that.
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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7/6/2015 10:46:48 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 7/6/2015 9:41:54 AM, johnlubba wrote:
At 7/5/2015 1:58:17 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
http://www.theguardian.com...

With 50.8% of votes reporting on "whether to accept the outline of the agreement submitted by the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund at the Eurogroup of 25/06/1":

Yes: 38.76%
No: 61.24%

Suffice it to say, it looks as though the Greeks will reject this referendum. Notwithstanding the fact that the latest Troika bailout proposal is utter rubbish, this is a horrible move on part of the Greeks: one that will almost surely lead them to them leaving euro, spawning contagious throughout the European periphery and safe-haven flows to the U.S., which will appreciate the dollar and reduce net exports. This isn't about ideological purity or even whether austerity is the correct move: surely, it is not. The economics of the Greek debacle were never complex, and we always knew that absent an independent, credible monetary regime and without the ability to borrow in its own currency, that austerity would be extremely deleterious to growth prospects. However, the political ramifications mandate some degree of sanity, and that's something Tsipras hasn't shown thus far.

tl;dr: The Greeks are making a grave mistake, and it will cost them - and the global economy - dearly.

The Greeks are doing the right thing by rejecting the bail out deal which has been classed as blackmail by loan sharks and bullies. They have declared it unsustainable debt, are they expected to just roll with it, until they owe everything to the loan sharks. as well as live under extreme austerity in the meantime.

No, The Greeks have shown the guile and exposed the scheme of the euro bankers, who's aim is to eventually own and not to strengthen.

They could say yes to the deal and just be getting themselves into more and more debt which has harsh austerity measures attached to it. , a debt they know they can't repay until eventually they are consumed by debt and owned by their creditors.

The Euro is a failure and the Greeks are doing the right thing by exposing that.

We probably agree on more than you think we do, and yet I would've voted in favor of the proposal:

(a) I agree that the euro is a failed economic experiment, but it was never intended as good economics: it was political in nature, and that integration - trade, etc. - has been overwhelmingly positive.

(b) I agree that saying yes to the deal with result in even more debt, as austerity with shrink the economy - thus increasing the ratio - debt-to-GDP ratio faster than the spending cuts reduce it in the absence of an independent monetary regime.

But I don't consider it blackmail. It's a horrible deal ridden with gratuitous bullsh1t. Greece has already taken on far more austerity than any country since the Depression and has already significantly reduced its budget deficit - from 15 percent of GDP to 3 percent of GDP. In the absence of the ability to manage AD by itself or to lets its currency fall, the only plausible options the Greeks have, lest they abandon the euro, is to accept the reforms in favor of bailout money - reforms which the IMF concedes will not actually work, and will see the debt-to-GDP ratio still clock in at 118 percent of GDP in 2030 as opposed to 170 percent right now.

The problem, though, is the costs of rejecting the deal far outweigh the benefits (and thus the costs of the deal itself). The ramifications of a disintegrating euro, the contagion to Italy, Spain, and Portugal and the flight-to-safety flows to the U.S., and the continued shutdown of Greek banks - which would probably force it to either reinstate the drachma or issue I.O.U.'s to employees, which is a de-facto new currency - would completely destroys Greece's status on the world stage, not to mention irreparably damage its credit rating. Global financial markets would tank, and the entirety of the euro would shutdown. I think it's a horrible experiment, and that the Greeks have suffered *more* than enough from their fiscal mismanagement in the early 2000s, but the costs of exiting the euro are just far greater.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
johnlubba
Posts: 2,892
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7/7/2015 1:25:05 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 7/6/2015 10:46:48 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 7/6/2015 9:41:54 AM, johnlubba wrote:
At 7/5/2015 1:58:17 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
http://www.theguardian.com...

With 50.8% of votes reporting on "whether to accept the outline of the agreement submitted by the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund at the Eurogroup of 25/06/1":

Yes: 38.76%
No: 61.24%

Suffice it to say, it looks as though the Greeks will reject this referendum. Notwithstanding the fact that the latest Troika bailout proposal is utter rubbish, this is a horrible move on part of the Greeks: one that will almost surely lead them to them leaving euro, spawning contagious throughout the European periphery and safe-haven flows to the U.S., which will appreciate the dollar and reduce net exports. This isn't about ideological purity or even whether austerity is the correct move: surely, it is not. The economics of the Greek debacle were never complex, and we always knew that absent an independent, credible monetary regime and without the ability to borrow in its own currency, that austerity would be extremely deleterious to growth prospects. However, the political ramifications mandate some degree of sanity, and that's something Tsipras hasn't shown thus far.

tl;dr: The Greeks are making a grave mistake, and it will cost them - and the global economy - dearly.

The Greeks are doing the right thing by rejecting the bail out deal which has been classed as blackmail by loan sharks and bullies. They have declared it unsustainable debt, are they expected to just roll with it, until they owe everything to the loan sharks. as well as live under extreme austerity in the meantime.

No, The Greeks have shown the guile and exposed the scheme of the euro bankers, who's aim is to eventually own and not to strengthen.

They could say yes to the deal and just be getting themselves into more and more debt which has harsh austerity measures attached to it. , a debt they know they can't repay until eventually they are consumed by debt and owned by their creditors.

The Euro is a failure and the Greeks are doing the right thing by exposing that.

We probably agree on more than you think we do, and yet I would've voted in favor of the proposal:

(a) I agree that the euro is a failed economic experiment, but it was never intended as good economics: it was political in nature, and that integration - trade, etc. - has been overwhelmingly positive.

(b) I agree that saying yes to the deal with result in even more debt, as austerity with shrink the economy - thus increasing the ratio - debt-to-GDP ratio faster than the spending cuts reduce it in the absence of an independent monetary regime.

But I don't consider it blackmail. It's a horrible deal ridden with gratuitous bullsh1t. Greece has already taken on far more austerity than any country since the Depression and has already significantly reduced its budget deficit - from 15 percent of GDP to 3 percent of GDP. In the absence of the ability to manage AD by itself or to lets its currency fall, the only plausible options the Greeks have, lest they abandon the euro, is to accept the reforms in favor of bailout money - reforms which the IMF concedes will not actually work, and will see the debt-to-GDP ratio still clock in at 118 percent of GDP in 2030 as opposed to 170 percent right now.

The problem, though, is the costs of rejecting the deal far outweigh the benefits (and thus the costs of the deal itself). The ramifications of a disintegrating euro, the contagion to Italy, Spain, and Portugal and the flight-to-safety flows to the U.S., and the continued shutdown of Greek banks - which would probably force it to either reinstate the drachma or issue I.O.U.'s to employees, which is a de-facto new currency - would completely destroys Greece's status on the world stage, not to mention irreparably damage its credit rating. Global financial markets would tank, and the entirety of the euro would shutdown. I think it's a horrible experiment, and that the Greeks have suffered *more* than enough from their fiscal mismanagement in the early 2000s, but the costs of exiting the euro are just far greater.

Seeing as I have been a member of DDO for over four years and never posted once in the economics forum, you can guess that I don't have much to say about economics, in other words I don't understand the technical jargon.

But I can tell you that the Greeks had a way of life for thousands of years and did ok, in fact they were very happy, but since they have adopted the Euro currency their lives are threatened to a very high degree.

I don't think it will be that bad in the long run if they decide to exit the euro, I think it will actually get better, for them, granted other countries will be affected, but they to might eventually follow and then the euro collapses and then people will trade as they did before.

Look at countries that don't have the euro, Turkey for instance gets lots of tourist trade, because they are cheaper than euro countries, This serves them a great benefit, and then there is Iceland who's economy is now booming.

The Euro is a failure simply because it's designed by global demonic bankers who's ambition is to reduce countires to nothing so they eventually become owned, and the people are waking up.

That is my opinion anyway.
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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7/7/2015 1:31:49 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 7/7/2015 1:25:05 PM, johnlubba wrote:
Seeing as I have been a member of DDO for over four years and never posted once in the economics forum, you can guess that I don't have much to say about economics, in other words I don't understand the technical jargon.

Fair enough; I'm willing to break anything down that sounds superfluous. Just let me know.

But I can tell you that the Greeks had a way of life for thousands of years and did ok, in fact they were very happy, but since they have adopted the Euro currency their lives are threatened to a very high degree.

I agree that the euro is a horrid idea, though joining the Eurozone was part and parcel of advancing its position on the world stage. It's hard to deny that the integration from its EU membership substantially benefitted Greece, though the euro itself is a horrid idea, as are, even, EU borrowing limits in the absence of an independent monetary regime.

I don't think it will be that bad in the long run if they decide to exit the euro, I think it will actually get better, for them, granted other countries will be affected, but they to might eventually follow and then the euro collapses and then people will trade as they did before.

I agree that it will benefit them in the long run, but I'm worried about the transition. I know it's probably bad policy to accept the euro now and hope they drop it later - of course, FDR abandoned the gold standard during the Depression, and that was overwhelmingly positive - but I question whether this is the right time: the Fed is raising rates this year; China is going to hell, with $2.4 trillion in wealth destroyed due to stock market volatility; the Eurozone is still barely above water in terms of deflation, etc. I think an eventual Grexit is inevitable and necessary, but I don't think now is that time.

Look at countries that don't have the euro, Turkey for instance gets lots of tourist trade, because they are cheaper than euro countries, This serves them a great benefit, and then there is Iceland who's economy is now booming.

I agree, but neither of them were ever on the euro, so they obviate the painful transition.

The Euro is a failure simply because it's designed by global demonic bankers who's ambition is to reduce countires to nothing so they eventually become owned, and the people are waking up.

That is my opinion anyway.

I think this is a bit conspiratorial. I think the Euro is a failure because the idea of a shared currency, absent fiscal integration, is by itself horrible economics. I don't think this is a scheme by global bankers.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
johnlubba
Posts: 2,892
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7/7/2015 1:55:17 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 7/7/2015 1:31:49 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 7/7/2015 1:25:05 PM, johnlubba wrote:
Seeing as I have been a member of DDO for over four years and never posted once in the economics forum, you can guess that I don't have much to say about economics, in other words I don't understand the technical jargon.

Fair enough; I'm willing to break anything down that sounds superfluous. Just let me know.

But I can tell you that the Greeks had a way of life for thousands of years and did ok, in fact they were very happy, but since they have adopted the Euro currency their lives are threatened to a very high degree.

I agree that the euro is a horrid idea, though joining the Eurozone was part and parcel of advancing its position on the world stage. It's hard to deny that the integration from its EU membership substantially benefitted Greece, though the euro itself is a horrid idea, as are, even, EU borrowing limits in the absence of an independent monetary regime.

I don't think it will be that bad in the long run if they decide to exit the euro, I think it will actually get better, for them, granted other countries will be affected, but they to might eventually follow and then the euro collapses and then people will trade as they did before.

I agree that it will benefit them in the long run, but I'm worried about the transition. I know it's probably bad policy to accept the euro now and hope they drop it later - of course, FDR abandoned the gold standard during the Depression, and that was overwhelmingly positive - but I question whether this is the right time: the Fed is raising rates this year; China is going to hell, with $2.4 trillion in wealth destroyed due to stock market volatility; the Eurozone is still barely above water in terms of deflation, etc. I think an eventual Grexit is inevitable and necessary, but I don't think now is that time.

Look at countries that don't have the euro, Turkey for instance gets lots of tourist trade, because they are cheaper than euro countries, This serves them a great benefit, and then there is Iceland who's economy is now booming.

I agree, but neither of them were ever on the euro, so they obviate the painful transition.

The Euro is a failure simply because it's designed by global demonic bankers who's ambition is to reduce countires to nothing so they eventually become owned, and the people are waking up.

That is my opinion anyway.

I think this is a bit conspiratorial. I think the Euro is a failure because the idea of a shared currency, absent fiscal integration, is by itself horrible economics. I don't think this is a scheme by global bankers.

I thought Iceland did have the Euro, but maybe I am wrong there. You obviously have a lot more knowledge than me regarding economics and I feel I can't respond to your level. But I do appreciate your input.

Concerning the conspiracy theory of globalized demonic bankers, I find it very reasonable, seeing as it is actually the banks who countries are in debt to, at the expence of it's citizens, in effect everybody becomes owned.

It's a very real reality my friend.

Thanks for your input, my shift is over now so will respond tomorrow.

Regards.
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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7/7/2015 1:59:19 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 7/7/2015 1:55:17 PM, johnlubba wrote:
At 7/7/2015 1:31:49 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 7/7/2015 1:25:05 PM, johnlubba wrote:
Seeing as I have been a member of DDO for over four years and never posted once in the economics forum, you can guess that I don't have much to say about economics, in other words I don't understand the technical jargon.

Fair enough; I'm willing to break anything down that sounds superfluous. Just let me know.

But I can tell you that the Greeks had a way of life for thousands of years and did ok, in fact they were very happy, but since they have adopted the Euro currency their lives are threatened to a very high degree.

I agree that the euro is a horrid idea, though joining the Eurozone was part and parcel of advancing its position on the world stage. It's hard to deny that the integration from its EU membership substantially benefitted Greece, though the euro itself is a horrid idea, as are, even, EU borrowing limits in the absence of an independent monetary regime.

I don't think it will be that bad in the long run if they decide to exit the euro, I think it will actually get better, for them, granted other countries will be affected, but they to might eventually follow and then the euro collapses and then people will trade as they did before.

I agree that it will benefit them in the long run, but I'm worried about the transition. I know it's probably bad policy to accept the euro now and hope they drop it later - of course, FDR abandoned the gold standard during the Depression, and that was overwhelmingly positive - but I question whether this is the right time: the Fed is raising rates this year; China is going to hell, with $2.4 trillion in wealth destroyed due to stock market volatility; the Eurozone is still barely above water in terms of deflation, etc. I think an eventual Grexit is inevitable and necessary, but I don't think now is that time.

Look at countries that don't have the euro, Turkey for instance gets lots of tourist trade, because they are cheaper than euro countries, This serves them a great benefit, and then there is Iceland who's economy is now booming.

I agree, but neither of them were ever on the euro, so they obviate the painful transition.

The Euro is a failure simply because it's designed by global demonic bankers who's ambition is to reduce countires to nothing so they eventually become owned, and the people are waking up.

That is my opinion anyway.

I think this is a bit conspiratorial. I think the Euro is a failure because the idea of a shared currency, absent fiscal integration, is by itself horrible economics. I don't think this is a scheme by global bankers.

I thought Iceland did have the Euro, but maybe I am wrong there. You obviously have a lot more knowledge than me regarding economics and I feel I can't respond to your level. But I do appreciate your input.

I don't believe they did, though I could be wrong.

Your input was much appreciated as well.

Concerning the conspiracy theory of globalized demonic bankers, I find it very reasonable, seeing as it is actually the banks who countries are in debt to, at the expence of it's citizens, in effect everybody becomes owned.

It's true that the Greeks are indebted to the banks, but the terms of those agreements - including the 50% haircut the banks took in 2011 - are actually extremely favorable to the Greeks, who admittedly are guilty of some degree of fiscal profligacy in the early 2000s.

It's a very real reality my friend.

I'm not convinced, though I do think it's possible in principle for the banks to be involved in other devious behavior - i.e., funding politicians for the sake of deregulation.


Thanks for your input, my shift is over now so will respond tomorrow.

Regards.

Cheers.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah