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2015 Chinese Stock Market Crash

Vox_Veritas
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8/30/2015 3:47:36 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
This thread is devoted to talking about the 2015 Chinese Stock Market Crash, as the title would suggest. Anybody here knowledgeable about it?
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

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ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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8/31/2015 7:51:12 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 8/30/2015 3:47:36 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
This thread is devoted to talking about the 2015 Chinese Stock Market Crash, as the title would suggest. Anybody here knowledgeable about it?

Here's the gist of what you need to know about the Chinese Stock Market:

(1) Markets go up, and they go down. Year over year, the Shanghai Composite is up about 34 percent. It shot up early to mid last year, and the tanked, and then rebounded such that it's lower than it was after it boomed about a year ago, but still higher than at the start of 2014.

(2) The Chinese stock market is completely disconnected from the real economy. First, only five percent of households even own stocks, so there's hardly any "wealth" effect, so the whole "$3 trillion over 3 weeks," much of which has now rebounded, really isn't that important. Second, we saw these same gyrations back in 2009 which was, likewise, accompanied by horrible data (and, mind you, China is transitioning toward a more service-based economy, so production data needs to be considered in that context) was associated with real GDP growth of 9.2 percent. That's relative to 7 percent real growth today (and 5.8 percent nominal -- e.g., 1.2 percent deflation).

(3) The stock market now is in large part "artificially inflated" by government policy, like funneling money to state-run enterprises to loan out to brokerages and hence to investors willing to buy stocks. It doesn't reflect the fundamentals of the Chinese economy, nor will it.

(4) The data coming out of China sucks, and the collection of it is even worse, but follow the data. The PBOC is launching new stimulus measures -- cutting rates again, loosening reserve requirements, injecting liquidity, etc. -- and local governments are in the process of investing in a series of infrastructure projected approved by the new NDRC, so irrespective of the narrative of abandoned airports, that new infrastructure spending should do *something* to boost employment, which is especially essential because the state-run nature of the Chinese economy makes enterprises far less interest-rate sensitive, which mutes the impact of monetary stimulus

(5) The whole "devaluation" story is overblown. The yuan has been headed upwards since 2011 -- I think the figure is something like 28 percent, though this might be off -- so the 3 percent devaluation means next to nothing, especially when the PBOC is now flipping out and looking to *boost* the yuan. Not to mention, with Europe in the toilet and the U.S., though in relatively greener pastures, still far from "normal," an export-led recovery, a model China itself recognizes as unsustainable and that it's actively trying to transition away from, won't cut it.
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ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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9/22/2015 1:55:59 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 9/2/2015 7:48:25 AM, elmapeter099 wrote:
Interesting realization of different level, It worths.
http://www.topcelebsjackets.com...

Go the fck away, you useless cnt.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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9/22/2015 1:56:09 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 9/22/2015 10:14:19 AM, JenetDesouza wrote:
An incredible sharing and worthful knowledge..

http://www.samishleather.com...

See above.
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Greyparrot
Posts: 17,592
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9/23/2015 12:39:47 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 9/22/2015 1:56:09 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 9/22/2015 10:14:19 AM, JenetDesouza wrote:
An incredible sharing and worthful knowledge..

http://www.samishleather.com...

See above.

Imma have you naked by the end of this song.
I find myself intrigued by your subvocal oscillations.
A singular development of cat communications
That obviates your basic hedonistic predilection,
For a rhythmic stroking of your fur to demonstrate affection.
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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9/23/2015 12:40:41 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 9/23/2015 12:39:47 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 9/22/2015 1:56:09 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 9/22/2015 10:14:19 AM, JenetDesouza wrote:
An incredible sharing and worthful knowledge..

http://www.samishleather.com...

See above.

Imma have you naked by the end of this song.

LOL WTF.

In that case, I'm not even going to listen to it. ;)
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
Greyparrot
Posts: 17,592
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9/23/2015 12:47:49 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 9/23/2015 12:40:41 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 9/23/2015 12:39:47 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 9/22/2015 1:56:09 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 9/22/2015 10:14:19 AM, JenetDesouza wrote:
An incredible sharing and worthful knowledge..

http://www.samishleather.com...

See above.

Imma have you naked by the end of this song.

LOL WTF.

In that case, I'm not even going to listen to it. ;)

It's just the last lyric of the song.
I find myself intrigued by your subvocal oscillations.
A singular development of cat communications
That obviates your basic hedonistic predilection,
For a rhythmic stroking of your fur to demonstrate affection.
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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9/23/2015 12:48:33 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 9/23/2015 12:47:49 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 9/23/2015 12:40:41 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 9/23/2015 12:39:47 AM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 9/22/2015 1:56:09 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 9/22/2015 10:14:19 AM, JenetDesouza wrote:
An incredible sharing and worthful knowledge..

http://www.samishleather.com...

See above.

Imma have you naked by the end of this song.

LOL WTF.

In that case, I'm not even going to listen to it. ;)

It's just the last lyric of the song.

Ah.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
herlinfarnandis
Posts: 1
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11/14/2015 10:40:27 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Markets always go Up and down. Very cautiously written post! You uncovered the productive ways of the topic and met with the original presentation. Can"t you try these to look amazing in my view?

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tajshar2k
Posts: 2,605
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12/9/2015 1:55:35 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/22/2015 1:55:59 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 9/2/2015 7:48:25 AM, elmapeter099 wrote:
Interesting realization of different level, It worths.
http://www.topcelebsjackets.com...

Go the fck away, you useless cnt.

lol
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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12/9/2015 2:17:21 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/9/2015 1:55:35 AM, tajshar2k wrote:
At 9/22/2015 1:55:59 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 9/2/2015 7:48:25 AM, elmapeter099 wrote:
Interesting realization of different level, It worths.
http://www.topcelebsjackets.com...

Go the fck away, you useless cnt.

lol

Eh, it worked, right? Lol.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
Codename_X
Posts: 5
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12/24/2015 3:45:46 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
I believe it is mainly because manufacturing inside of China has decreased. For example, many different companies were building up Chinese infrastructure for years, and making a lot of profit doing it. However, when China's infrastructure started to get better, the needs for these companies lessened, as a result, the market crash.
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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1/24/2016 6:29:16 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 1/24/2016 6:24:42 PM, Melo wrote:
Forgot to add: I believe 2016 is year, where China correct the current situation.

If people are too stupid to see the clear product placement here -- evidenced by the link in your signature and your gobs of spam so as to publicize that link as best you can -- I have absolutely no problem calling you out.

Once again, get the fck out.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah