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Federal Fund Target Rate Predictions 1Jan16

Chang29
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9/21/2015 1:28:09 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Put your mark on the wall.

What will the Federal Funds target rate, set by America's central bank, be on January 1, 2016 (https://apps.newyorkfed.org...)? No conditional predictions, no two handed economic analysis, only a 25 basis point range with a short reason.

I'll start.

0 to .25%, no change.

Reason: America's economy is too weak for a rate increase.
A free market anti-capitalist

If it can be de-centralized, it will be de-centralized.
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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9/21/2015 1:51:19 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
I should note that I'm merely extrapolating from the Fed's recent Summary of Economic projections, which can be found here: http://www.federalreserve.gov...

Median for the end of 2015: 40 basis points (i.e, target range of 25 to 50 bps).

The range is perhaps more interesting. For instance, looking at the individual projections of the 17 participants, we saw:

-1/4 to 0 percent (1 participant; Narayana Kocherlakota)
0 to 1/4 percent (3 participants; Charlie Evans for sure, and maybe Yellen/Dudley)
1/4 to 1/2 percent (7 participants)
1/2 to 3/4 percent (5 participants; Bullard/Mester/George/Dallas guy/other)
3/4 to 1 percent (1 participant; Jeffrey Lacker)

So just taking a probability-weighted average, I'm ahead--and there are other people on the FOMC who would pursue an *even more* hawkish course, but it's very unlikely they'll lift off in October without a prescheduled press conference.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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Chang29
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10/30/2015 11:58:56 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Any other takers? Now that the Fed has released a new statement that many are calling hawkish. Show that you believe the words of America's central bankers, and make a prediction higher than .25%. Only one more Fed meeting this year.

DDO's economic messiah has left the site, due to mean people.
A free market anti-capitalist

If it can be de-centralized, it will be de-centralized.
Chang29
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12/6/2015 1:45:44 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Any child can predict a storm with a barometer. Less than two weeks from the next Fed meeting most are saying the barometer favors a rate increase this month.

Yet, I will stick to my prediction of no change. The American economy will take a steep downturn with any rate increase (too much mal-investment), even the FOMC knows this, but can never admit.

An takers on proving me wrong?
A free market anti-capitalist

If it can be de-centralized, it will be de-centralized.
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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12/6/2015 2:27:20 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/6/2015 1:45:44 AM, Chang29 wrote:
Any child can predict a storm with a barometer. Less than two weeks from the next Fed meeting most are saying the barometer favors a rate increase this month.

Yet, I will stick to my prediction of no change. The American economy will take a steep downturn with any rate increase (too much mal-investment), even the FOMC knows this, but can never admit.

An takers on proving me wrong?

Hi there.

I'm reactivating for the sole purpose of proving you wrong -- and I'll take my final victory lap on December 16th at 2:00 p.m. upon the release of the press release.

Here's the reality:

(a) This is a done deal, and it was confirmed even by Yellen's speech just the other day. That was in spite of the horrid manufacturing numbers that came out on Wednesday, with ISM composite hitting a 6-year low. The jobs numbers -- the last actual hurdle, because FOMC projections embed a Phillips-curve framework -- were great, meaning the August/September "slowdown" (somewhat less of a slowdown now, because September was revised upward) was a fluke.

(b) Markets are already pricing it in. Credit spreads have been gravitating upward since March, the shadow federal funds rate -- take a term structure model and work backwards from long to short, assume the FFR can fall below zero, and then back out the effect of QE/FG on long-term yields -- has been soaring by close to 2 percentage points over this past year, equities have entered correction zone (and now are responding *positively* to positive jobs data, meaning the whole "mystery" of relative stock-bond movements is essentially over), the yield curve has already shifted, net shorts on euro dollar futures (i.e., investors profit if rates rise) hit a one-year high, etc etc. Any market-based indicator says the same thing as the Fed's own projections: it's coming in December, irrespective of whether it's the correct decision.

(c) Janet is trying to dial back the market's more bullish outlook on the dollar. Ironically, the dollar will probably plummet after the Fed hikes, just as the euro rocketed after the ECB eased. It's sort of a paradox, until you consider that it's precisely what the efficient markets hypothesis would have predicted: only *unexpected* shifts in policy (as a proxy for future asset prices) will actually move markets, and it will be a dovish surprise relative to hawkish expectations, just as the ECB meeting was a hawkish surprise relative to overly dovish expectations.

(d) Most FOMC members believe, rightly, that the labor market has sufficiently improved and that real GDP has been growing "above trend," because the trend line is horridly anemic -- around, or less than, 2 percent. I mean, the unemployment rate has been plummeting by about 8 tenths of a percent a year even as the LFPR approaches and stabilizes around a newer, much lower, long-run trend. Yellen acknowledged in her last speech that demographics have reduced the "steady state" level of monthly employment gains -- probably around something like 100,000.

Now, the question is whether that "some further improvement in the labor market" (Fed's words) will be sufficiently to inspire "reasonable confidence" that inflation will move back to 2 percent. The Phillips Curve is a horribly outdated model, and there are zero signs of a significant shift in the outlook for the dollar and/or commodity prices, so I don't see this being an issue -- especially with virtually every measure of long-term inflation expectations, market-based *and* survey-based, declining as late.

The Fed will realize that eventually and temper the path, which will in a sense be "too little, too late," but only a drama queen would make a comparison to, say, the BOJ or the ECB. They're bad, but they're not *that* bad. Ironically, Ted Cruz (read: his staffers) was actually totally right on the Fed's "implicit tightening" in 2008, but insofar as they continue to use interest rates as the primary metric for gauging the stance of monetary policy, we encounter situations like these.

It won't be the end of the world, but 2 percent growth will be the new normal. The hope of Janet pushing against the wind, or whatever, and tolerating slightly higher inflation to see if she could plausibly push up the long-run equilibrium funds rate to mollify the lingering damage to the interest-rate channel -- which might even necessitate maintaing an elevated balance sheet in perpetuity --- have been effectively dashed, notwithstanding the fact that her March speech at least considered the idea. Oh well.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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12/6/2015 3:02:38 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
For more evidence -- since I'm feeling particularly bitter at the moment and want to rub it in, here's some recent material from Yellen:

"On balance, economic and financial information received since our October
meeting has been consistent with our expectations of continued improvement in the labor market. And, as I have noted, continuing improvement in the labor market helps strengthen confidence that inflation will move back to our 2 percent objective over the medium term
." - Janet Yellen

Oh, would you look at that... She used the *precise* criteria laid out in the Committee's forward guidance they've maintained since July (and technically since March, sans "some" as a qualifier for labor-market improvement). I wonder if she's trying to prime markets -- and by that I mean, of course she is.

"As you know, there has been considerable focus on the first increase in the federal
funds rate after nearly seven years in which that rate has been at its effective lower
bound. We have tried to be as clear as possible about the considerations that will affect that decision. Of course, even after the initial increase in the federal funds rate, monetary policy will remain accommodative
." - Janet Yellen

So, just like Stanley Fischer, she's saying, "Well, markets could implode, as they did in May-June of 2013, but we've done our best to prevent that from happening, so hint, nudge, wink, this is happening, sell off now, or forever hold your peace."

Fischer's comments sent the 2-year rocketing to a 5-year high, btw. At the same time, the long end of the yield curve is tanking, with the 10-year hitting roughly a month low on Tuesday, after the ISM numbers. Market expectations of *liftoff* -- see the 2-year, which is most policy-sensitive -- hardly budged, and they won't budge. December is a done deal: the *path* is what matters, which is the message Yellen and her colleagues are trying to send.

Combine that with recent remarks from Fischer/Dudley/Lockhart/Williams, and we've got ourselves our first hike in 9 years.

A final consideration: she was asked during the Q&A on Wednesday about "dissents." This is particularly important, because Lael Brainard and Daniel Tarullo recently came out against lifting, joining long-time dove, Charlie Evans (since Narayana Kocherlakota is (a) not voting and (b) retiring, and thus not attending the December meeting). Her response: basically, she's willing to tolerate it, and even *expects* to have dissents, even if those dissents come from the once-in-lockstep Board. We expect regional bank presidents, like Narayana, to be steely-eye optimists, but Board members? Heresy!
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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12/6/2015 3:08:49 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
With all of that said, lifting off *now* would be an absolutely piss-poor idea. If I were a Fed Governor or regional bank president, I'd break my "silence" -- there's always a media blackout that takes place roughly a week before the meetings -- and throw a public hissy fit.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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Chang29
Posts: 732
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12/6/2015 3:34:24 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/6/2015 2:27:20 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 1:45:44 AM, Chang29 wrote:
Any child can predict a storm with a barometer. Less than two weeks from the next Fed meeting most are saying the barometer favors a rate increase this month.

Yet, I will stick to my prediction of no change. The American economy will take a steep downturn with any rate increase (too much mal-investment), even the FOMC knows this, but can never admit.

An takers on proving me wrong?

Hi there.

I'm reactivating for the sole purpose of proving you wrong -- and I'll take my final victory lap on December 16th at 2:00 p.m. upon the release of the press release.

Here's the reality:

(a) This is a done deal, and it was confirmed even by Yellen's speech just the other day. That was in spite of the horrid manufacturing numbers that came out on Wednesday, with ISM composite hitting a 6-year low. The jobs numbers -- the last actual hurdle, because FOMC projections embed a Phillips-curve framework -- were great, meaning the August/September "slowdown" (somewhat less of a slowdown now, because September was revised upward) was a fluke.

(b) Markets are already pricing it in. Credit spreads have been gravitating upward since March, the shadow federal funds rate -- take a term structure model and work backwards from long to short, assume the FFR can fall below zero, and then back out the effect of QE/FG on long-term yields -- has been soaring by close to 2 percentage points over this past year, equities have entered correction zone (and now are responding *positively* to positive jobs data, meaning the whole "mystery" of relative stock-bond movements is essentially over), the yield curve has already shifted, net shorts on euro dollar futures (i.e., investors profit if rates rise) hit a one-year high, etc etc. Any market-based indicator says the same thing as the Fed's own projections: it's coming in December, irrespective of whether it's the correct decision.

(c) Janet is trying to dial back the market's more bullish outlook on the dollar. Ironically, the dollar will probably plummet after the Fed hikes, just as the euro rocketed after the ECB eased. It's sort of a paradox, until you consider that it's precisely what the efficient markets hypothesis would have predicted: only *unexpected* shifts in policy (as a proxy for future asset prices) will actually move markets, and it will be a dovish surprise relative to hawkish expectations, just as the ECB meeting was a hawkish surprise relative to overly dovish expectations.

(d) Most FOMC members believe, rightly, that the labor market has sufficiently improved and that real GDP has been growing "above trend," because the trend line is horridly anemic -- around, or less than, 2 percent. I mean, the unemployment rate has been plummeting by about 8 tenths of a percent a year even as the LFPR approaches and stabilizes around a newer, much lower, long-run trend. Yellen acknowledged in her last speech that demographics have reduced the "steady state" level of monthly employment gains -- probably around something like 100,000.

Now, the question is whether that "some further improvement in the labor market" (Fed's words) will be sufficiently to inspire "reasonable confidence" that inflation will move back to 2 percent. The Phillips Curve is a horribly outdated model, and there are zero signs of a significant shift in the outlook for the dollar and/or commodity prices, so I don't see this being an issue -- especially with virtually every measure of long-term inflation expectations, market-based *and* survey-based, declining as late.

The Fed will realize that eventually and temper the path, which will in a sense be "too little, too late," but only a drama queen would make a comparison to, say, the BOJ or the ECB. They're bad, but they're not *that* bad. Ironically, Ted Cruz (read: his staffers) was actually totally right on the Fed's "implicit tightening" in 2008, but insofar as they continue to use interest rates as the primary metric for gauging the stance of monetary policy, we encounter situations like these.

It won't be the end of the world, but 2 percent growth will be the new normal. The hope of Janet pushing against the wind, or whatever, and tolerating slightly higher inflation to see if she could plausibly push up the long-run equilibrium funds rate to mollify the lingering damage to the interest-rate channel -- which might even necessitate maintaing an elevated balance sheet in perpetuity --- have been effectively dashed, notwithstanding the fact that her March speech at least considered the idea. Oh well.

I knew you'd be back around this time, if the barometer was favorable.

Some might have missed you.
A free market anti-capitalist

If it can be de-centralized, it will be de-centralized.
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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12/6/2015 3:38:34 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/6/2015 3:34:24 AM, Chang29 wrote:
I knew you'd be back around this time, if the barometer was favorable.

Mhm.

Just here to take my well-deserved victory lap.

What's funny is, I would've been taking a lap even *if* the data and/or market-implied expectations weren't consistent with liftoff being a done deal. The Fed has so much baggage on lifting *this year* that they were probably going to move, anyway, fundamentals be darned. Maybe some participants subscribe to neofisherism and/or the Kuroda "confidence fairy" narrative.

Some might have missed you.

I'm sure.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
Chang29
Posts: 732
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12/6/2015 3:45:17 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/6/2015 3:38:34 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 3:34:24 AM, Chang29 wrote:
I knew you'd be back around this time, if the barometer was favorable.

Mhm.

Just here to take my well-deserved victory lap.

What's funny is, I would've been taking a lap even *if* the data and/or market-implied expectations weren't consistent with liftoff being a done deal. The Fed has so much baggage on lifting *this year* that they were probably going to move, anyway, fundamentals be darned. Maybe some participants subscribe to neofisherism and/or the Kuroda "confidence fairy" narrative.

The Fed has put itself into a corner this year. The idea of forward guidance might not be a good idea.


Some might have missed you.

I'm sure.
A free market anti-capitalist

If it can be de-centralized, it will be de-centralized.
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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12/6/2015 3:52:06 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/6/2015 3:45:17 AM, Chang29 wrote:
The Fed has put itself into a corner this year. The idea of forward guidance might not be a good idea.

Oddly enough, we agree on this. They *have* painted themselves into a corner. That's inevitable when they throw out their bellwethers, like Dennis Lockhart, to tell us there's a "high bar" for not lifting in September (then, boom, financial markets tank, and the message shifts), or when Stan Fischer tells us at Jackson Hole that he's "extremely" (or some other synonymous adverb that matches the statement's "reasonably") confident that inflation will move back to 2 percent -- and, now, he's doing everything but holding up a road sign screaming, "We're doing this, sell off or you're screwed!"

Watching the Fed completely fumble its communication over the past few months has made me increasingly sympathetic to Scott Sumner's proposal of an NGDP futures market: eliminate the discretion altogether, we can change the target should any disturbances arise -- which is the chief problem, but "credibility" isn't exactly a risk, because the policy adjustment is guaranteed and immediate -- obviate headwinds, and eliminate guesswork, since the Fed would no longer set interest rates.

The problem is, (a) that might be overly simplistic, (b) it's hard to communicate that shift, (c) it's much, much harder to estimate productivity and potential growth than I'm letting on, and (d) the intermediary step, which is simply "less" communication (and I don't buy Jenny Tang's argument on this, I should note), is just disastrous. It's an all-or-nothing proposition, and we're not ready for "nothing." Liftoff could potentially be disastrous if the Fed gets the communication wrong. I'm bearish on the dollar *because* I anticipate that Yellen knows exactly what she needs to say, consistent with the last jobs report which largely tells the story for her, to temper upward pressure on the dollar.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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Rosalie
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12/6/2015 6:12:17 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/21/2015 1:45:15 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
25 to 50 basis points.

Nice to see you back.
" We need more videos of cat's playing the piano on the internet" - My art professor.

"Criticism is easier to take when you realize that the only people who aren't criticized are those who don't take risks." - Donald Trump

Officially Mrs. 16Kadams 8-30-16
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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12/6/2015 9:33:34 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/6/2015 6:12:17 AM, Rosalie wrote:
At 9/21/2015 1:45:15 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
25 to 50 basis points.

Nice to see you back.

Thanks, though this is only temporary.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
Rosalie
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12/6/2015 3:51:27 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/6/2015 9:33:34 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 6:12:17 AM, Rosalie wrote:
At 9/21/2015 1:45:15 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
25 to 50 basis points.

Nice to see you back.

Thanks, though this is only temporary.

You should reconsider.
" We need more videos of cat's playing the piano on the internet" - My art professor.

"Criticism is easier to take when you realize that the only people who aren't criticized are those who don't take risks." - Donald Trump

Officially Mrs. 16Kadams 8-30-16
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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12/6/2015 4:20:52 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/6/2015 3:51:27 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 12/6/2015 9:33:34 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 6:12:17 AM, Rosalie wrote:
At 9/21/2015 1:45:15 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
25 to 50 basis points.

Nice to see you back.

Thanks, though this is only temporary.

You should reconsider.

I really shouldn't.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
Rosalie
Posts: 4,612
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12/6/2015 4:22:18 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/6/2015 4:20:52 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 3:51:27 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 12/6/2015 9:33:34 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 6:12:17 AM, Rosalie wrote:
At 9/21/2015 1:45:15 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
25 to 50 basis points.

Nice to see you back.

Thanks, though this is only temporary.

You should reconsider.

I really shouldn't.

Maybe you should pm me so we can discuss and straighten out things .before you leave again.
" We need more videos of cat's playing the piano on the internet" - My art professor.

"Criticism is easier to take when you realize that the only people who aren't criticized are those who don't take risks." - Donald Trump

Officially Mrs. 16Kadams 8-30-16
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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12/6/2015 4:31:01 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/6/2015 4:22:18 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 12/6/2015 4:20:52 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 3:51:27 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 12/6/2015 9:33:34 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 6:12:17 AM, Rosalie wrote:
At 9/21/2015 1:45:15 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
25 to 50 basis points.

Nice to see you back.

Thanks, though this is only temporary.

You should reconsider.

I really shouldn't.

Maybe you should pm me so we can discuss and straighten out things .before you leave again.

There really isn't anything I'd like to discuss with you, nor do I have the time and/or the patience and/or the temperament necessary to sustain such a conversation.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
Rosalie
Posts: 4,612
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12/6/2015 4:32:44 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/6/2015 4:31:01 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 4:22:18 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 12/6/2015 4:20:52 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 3:51:27 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 12/6/2015 9:33:34 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 6:12:17 AM, Rosalie wrote:
At 9/21/2015 1:45:15 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
25 to 50 basis points.

Nice to see you back.

Thanks, though this is only temporary.

You should reconsider.

I really shouldn't.

Maybe you should pm me so we can discuss and straighten out things .before you leave again.

There really isn't anything I'd like to discuss with you, nor do I have the time and/or the patience and/or the temperament necessary to sustain such a conversation.

Send me a pm.
" We need more videos of cat's playing the piano on the internet" - My art professor.

"Criticism is easier to take when you realize that the only people who aren't criticized are those who don't take risks." - Donald Trump

Officially Mrs. 16Kadams 8-30-16
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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12/6/2015 4:34:57 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/6/2015 4:32:44 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 12/6/2015 4:31:01 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 4:22:18 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 12/6/2015 4:20:52 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 3:51:27 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 12/6/2015 9:33:34 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 6:12:17 AM, Rosalie wrote:
At 9/21/2015 1:45:15 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
25 to 50 basis points.

Nice to see you back.

Thanks, though this is only temporary.

You should reconsider.

I really shouldn't.

Maybe you should pm me so we can discuss and straighten out things .before you leave again.

There really isn't anything I'd like to discuss with you, nor do I have the time and/or the patience and/or the temperament necessary to sustain such a conversation.

Send me a pm.

I suppose the entire above sentence was lost on you.

Just leave it. You're derailing an otherwise (relatively) productive thread, and in the process grating on my last nerve.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
Rosalie
Posts: 4,612
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12/6/2015 4:37:48 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/6/2015 4:34:57 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 4:32:44 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 12/6/2015 4:31:01 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 4:22:18 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 12/6/2015 4:20:52 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 3:51:27 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 12/6/2015 9:33:34 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 6:12:17 AM, Rosalie wrote:
At 9/21/2015 1:45:15 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
25 to 50 basis points.

Nice to see you back.

Thanks, though this is only temporary.

You should reconsider.

I really shouldn't.

Maybe you should pm me so we can discuss and straighten out things .before you leave again.

There really isn't anything I'd like to discuss with you, nor do I have the time and/or the patience and/or the temperament necessary to sustain such a conversation.

Send me a pm.

I suppose the entire above sentence was lost on you.

Just leave it. You're derailing an otherwise (relatively) productive thread, and in the process grating on my last nerve.

Then stop derailing this thread, and message me. For the sake of the thread, or I will write it message in here.
" We need more videos of cat's playing the piano on the internet" - My art professor.

"Criticism is easier to take when you realize that the only people who aren't criticized are those who don't take risks." - Donald Trump

Officially Mrs. 16Kadams 8-30-16
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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12/6/2015 4:39:12 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/6/2015 4:37:48 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 12/6/2015 4:34:57 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 4:32:44 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 12/6/2015 4:31:01 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 4:22:18 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 12/6/2015 4:20:52 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 3:51:27 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 12/6/2015 9:33:34 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 6:12:17 AM, Rosalie wrote:
At 9/21/2015 1:45:15 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
25 to 50 basis points.

Nice to see you back.

Thanks, though this is only temporary.

You should reconsider.

I really shouldn't.

Maybe you should pm me so we can discuss and straighten out things .before you leave again.

There really isn't anything I'd like to discuss with you, nor do I have the time and/or the patience and/or the temperament necessary to sustain such a conversation.

Send me a pm.

I suppose the entire above sentence was lost on you.

Just leave it. You're derailing an otherwise (relatively) productive thread, and in the process grating on my last nerve.

Then stop derailing this thread, and message me. For the sake of the thread, or I will write it message in here.

That's the equivalent of punching someone in the face, handing them an ultimatum, and saying, "Stop punching yourself."
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
Chang29
Posts: 732
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12/9/2015 12:48:33 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/6/2015 4:37:48 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 12/6/2015 4:34:57 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 4:32:44 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 12/6/2015 4:31:01 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 4:22:18 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 12/6/2015 4:20:52 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 3:51:27 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 12/6/2015 9:33:34 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 12/6/2015 6:12:17 AM, Rosalie wrote:
At 9/21/2015 1:45:15 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
25 to 50 basis points.

Nice to see you back.

Thanks, though this is only temporary.

You should reconsider.

I really shouldn't.

Maybe you should pm me so we can discuss and straighten out things .before you leave again.

There really isn't anything I'd like to discuss with you, nor do I have the time and/or the patience and/or the temperament necessary to sustain such a conversation.

Send me a pm.

I suppose the entire above sentence was lost on you.

Just leave it. You're derailing an otherwise (relatively) productive thread, and in the process grating on my last nerve.

Then stop derailing this thread, and message me. For the sake of the thread, or I will write it message in here.

What is your rate prediction for January 1st?
A free market anti-capitalist

If it can be de-centralized, it will be de-centralized.
ColeTrain
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12/16/2015 8:42:57 PM
Posted: 11 months ago
At 9/21/2015 1:45:15 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
25 to 50 basis points.

25. ;)
"The right to 360 noscope noobs shall not be infringed!!!" -- tajshar2k
"So, to start off, I've never committed suicide." -- Vaarka
"I eat glue." -- brontoraptor
"I mean, at this rate, I'd argue for a ham sandwich presidency." -- ResponsiblyIrresponsible
"Overthrow Assad, heil jihad." -- 16kadams when trolling in hangout
"Hillary Clinton is not my favorite person ... and her campaign is as inspiring as a bowl of cottage cheese." -- YYW
ColeTrain
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12/16/2015 8:43:17 PM
Posted: 11 months ago
At 9/21/2015 1:28:09 AM, Chang29 wrote:

25 points...
"The right to 360 noscope noobs shall not be infringed!!!" -- tajshar2k
"So, to start off, I've never committed suicide." -- Vaarka
"I eat glue." -- brontoraptor
"I mean, at this rate, I'd argue for a ham sandwich presidency." -- ResponsiblyIrresponsible
"Overthrow Assad, heil jihad." -- 16kadams when trolling in hangout
"Hillary Clinton is not my favorite person ... and her campaign is as inspiring as a bowl of cottage cheese." -- YYW
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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12/16/2015 9:01:44 PM
Posted: 11 months ago
Well.... I told you so.

#vindicated

Ironically, the statement was more dovish than I anticipated, but I was too bearish on the dollar. The projections also didn't move much.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
Chang29
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12/16/2015 10:31:06 PM
Posted: 11 months ago
At 12/16/2015 9:01:44 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
Well.... I told you so.

#vindicated

Ironically, the statement was more dovish than I anticipated, but I was too bearish on the dollar. The projections also didn't move much.

It is along time until the 1st.
A free market anti-capitalist

If it can be de-centralized, it will be de-centralized.
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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12/16/2015 10:50:43 PM
Posted: 11 months ago
At 12/16/2015 10:31:06 PM, Chang29 wrote:
At 12/16/2015 9:01:44 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
Well.... I told you so.

#vindicated

Ironically, the statement was more dovish than I anticipated, but I was too bearish on the dollar. The projections also didn't move much.

It is along time until the 1st.

What?

Also, how does it feel to be absolutely, demonstrably wrong?
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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Chang29
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12/16/2015 11:22:48 PM
Posted: 11 months ago
Why it appears that I'll be wrong on the 1st:
1) The data dependent Fed is not data dependent.

2) Human emotion comes before economic indoctrination. The Fed's actions were to save face, not for economic reasons.

3) The Fed is insulated from politics. As rates rise and poor business models go bankrupt due to higher financing cost. Only a very few people will understand that the Fed caused costs to rise, and those very few are easily dismissed as delusional.
A free market anti-capitalist

If it can be de-centralized, it will be de-centralized.