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Econ AMA: Election-Focused

ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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3/15/2016 7:55:36 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
Why not? Let's get another of these going.

As always, ask whatever questions you'd like about economics, and I'll answer as thoroughly as I can -- if it's over my head, I'll try to direct you to a reference better suited to answering your question.

With today being such an important election day, let's try to focus this thread on the election -- not on the political horserace, but on the specific policy proposals of the candidates (or, you know, in the case of the Republicans... whatever their gibberish lends itself to in the way of policy, if anything).

My speciality, of course, is monetary policy -- and the Fed meeting is tomorrow -- so as expected that's also on the table.
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ESocialBookworm
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3/15/2016 10:21:52 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
What's your favourite Econ topic to talk about?
Solonkr~
I don't care about whether an ideology is "necessary" or not,
I care about how to solve problems,
which is what everyone else should also care about.

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In essence, the world is fucked up and you can either ignore it, become cynical or bitter about it.

Me~
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P.S. Shipped Sailey before it was cannon bitches.
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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3/15/2016 10:23:07 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 10:21:52 PM, ESocialBookworm wrote:
What's your favourite Econ topic to talk about?

Donald Trump's hair. It's just.... so......... fannnnnnntasssssticcccccccccccccc.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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Rosalie
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3/15/2016 10:53:37 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
Do you think giving tips at a restraunt should be eliminated?
" We need more videos of cat's playing the piano on the internet" - My art professor.

"Criticism is easier to take when you realize that the only people who aren't criticized are those who don't take risks." - Donald Trump

Officially Mrs. 16Kadams 8-30-16
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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3/16/2016 12:21:44 AM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 10:53:37 PM, Rosalie wrote:
Do you think giving tips at a restraunt should be eliminated?

No, though the idea of a "tipped minimum wage" on its face paves the wave for exploitation, even if anecdotes suggest workers end up earning more. It does place the burden, I think wrongly, on customers to guarantee these people a reasonable standard of living, which wouldn't be so troubling if it weren't incredibly gimmicky.

I guess I wouldn't "ban" it, but I ran a business, it wouldn't be my model.
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PetersSmith
Posts: 5,811
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3/16/2016 5:34:57 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 7:55:36 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
Why not? Let's get another of these going.

As always, ask whatever questions you'd like about economics, and I'll answer as thoroughly as I can -- if it's over my head, I'll try to direct you to a reference better suited to answering your question.

With today being such an important election day, let's try to focus this thread on the election -- not on the political horserace, but on the specific policy proposals of the candidates (or, you know, in the case of the Republicans... whatever their gibberish lends itself to in the way of policy, if anything).

My speciality, of course, is monetary policy -- and the Fed meeting is tomorrow -- so as expected that's also on the table.

Why is Donald Trump superior in regards to economic policies than every other candidate?
Empress of DDO (also Poll and Forum "Maintenance" Moderator)

"The two most important days in your life is the day you were born, and the day you find out why."
~Mark Twain

"Wow"
-Doge

"Don't believe everything you read on the internet just because there's a picture with a quote next to it."
~Abraham Lincoln

Guide to the Polls Section: http://www.debate.org...
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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3/16/2016 5:44:18 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/16/2016 5:34:57 PM, PetersSmith wrote:
Why is Donald Trump superior in regards to economic policies than every other candidate?

He's not.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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PetersSmith
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3/16/2016 5:46:18 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/16/2016 5:44:18 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 3/16/2016 5:34:57 PM, PetersSmith wrote:
Why is Donald Trump superior in regards to economic policies than every other candidate?

He's not.

):
Empress of DDO (also Poll and Forum "Maintenance" Moderator)

"The two most important days in your life is the day you were born, and the day you find out why."
~Mark Twain

"Wow"
-Doge

"Don't believe everything you read on the internet just because there's a picture with a quote next to it."
~Abraham Lincoln

Guide to the Polls Section: http://www.debate.org...
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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3/16/2016 5:46:59 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/16/2016 5:46:18 PM, PetersSmith wrote:
At 3/16/2016 5:44:18 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 3/16/2016 5:34:57 PM, PetersSmith wrote:
Why is Donald Trump superior in regards to economic policies than every other candidate?

He's not.

):

Sorry; he's as clueless and bombastic as always. But he has amazing hair.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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Rosalie
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3/16/2016 5:53:53 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/16/2016 5:46:59 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 3/16/2016 5:46:18 PM, PetersSmith wrote:
At 3/16/2016 5:44:18 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 3/16/2016 5:34:57 PM, PetersSmith wrote:
Why is Donald Trump superior in regards to economic policies than every other candidate?

He's not.

):

Sorry; he's as clueless and bombastic as always. But he has amazing hair.

Not true.

Even though his hair is fake?
" We need more videos of cat's playing the piano on the internet" - My art professor.

"Criticism is easier to take when you realize that the only people who aren't criticized are those who don't take risks." - Donald Trump

Officially Mrs. 16Kadams 8-30-16
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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3/16/2016 5:56:49 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/16/2016 5:53:53 PM, Rosalie wrote:
Not true.

It is true, and hopefully one day his clueless supporters will realize that.

Even though his hair is fake?

It's not.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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PetersSmith
Posts: 5,811
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3/16/2016 6:02:31 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/16/2016 5:53:53 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 3/16/2016 5:46:59 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 3/16/2016 5:46:18 PM, PetersSmith wrote:
At 3/16/2016 5:44:18 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 3/16/2016 5:34:57 PM, PetersSmith wrote:
Why is Donald Trump superior in regards to economic policies than every other candidate?

He's not.

):

Sorry; he's as clueless and bombastic as always. But he has amazing hair.

Not true.

Even though his hair is fake?
Empress of DDO (also Poll and Forum "Maintenance" Moderator)

"The two most important days in your life is the day you were born, and the day you find out why."
~Mark Twain

"Wow"
-Doge

"Don't believe everything you read on the internet just because there's a picture with a quote next to it."
~Abraham Lincoln

Guide to the Polls Section: http://www.debate.org...
Rosalie
Posts: 4,605
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3/16/2016 6:06:07 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/16/2016 6:02:31 PM, PetersSmith wrote:
At 3/16/2016 5:53:53 PM, Rosalie wrote:
At 3/16/2016 5:46:59 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 3/16/2016 5:46:18 PM, PetersSmith wrote:
At 3/16/2016 5:44:18 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 3/16/2016 5:34:57 PM, PetersSmith wrote:
Why is Donald Trump superior in regards to economic policies than every other candidate?

He's not.

):

Sorry; he's as clueless and bombastic as always. But he has amazing hair.

Not true.

Even though his hair is fake?



http://www.bing.com...
" We need more videos of cat's playing the piano on the internet" - My art professor.

"Criticism is easier to take when you realize that the only people who aren't criticized are those who don't take risks." - Donald Trump

Officially Mrs. 16Kadams 8-30-16
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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3/17/2016 3:00:34 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
Let's bump this over all the other crap in this forum at the moment.

Please try to keep this thread substantive.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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Rosalie
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3/17/2016 3:05:43 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/17/2016 3:00:34 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
Let's bump this over all the other crap in this forum at the moment.

Please try to keep this thread substantive.

The inflation rate has increased a little recently, and some key measures are now close to the the Fed's 2% target. Will the core inflation rate rise in 2016? Will too much inflation be a concern in 2016
" We need more videos of cat's playing the piano on the internet" - My art professor.

"Criticism is easier to take when you realize that the only people who aren't criticized are those who don't take risks." - Donald Trump

Officially Mrs. 16Kadams 8-30-16
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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3/17/2016 3:12:41 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/17/2016 3:05:43 PM, Rosalie wrote:
The inflation rate has increased a little recently, and some key measures are now close to the the Fed's 2% target. Will the core inflation rate rise in 2016? Will too much inflation be a concern in 2016

The core inflation rate already rose: The PCE reading was 1.7 on the year in January, and the headline was 1.3. Some of that was probably mechanical, since the decline in oil really began in mid-2014ish, so there's a persistence or "base effect" in the numbers for quite some time. But the last core CPI reading came in a tad higher (2.3), so there seems to be -- which shocked me, though I'd welcome it -- a reasonable upward trend in the numbers. That's a positive sign.

Will "too much" inflation be a concern? Highly doubtful, if not outright impossible. Prices don't just indiscriminately spike -- there's a "science" to it, per se. The lackluster productivity numbers aren't exactly the most encouraging indicator, but the only framework that would predict an outright "spike" in inflation is an accelerationist (Friedman-Phelps) Phillips curve. Thankfully, that model is hogwash.
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ColeTrain
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3/17/2016 3:20:50 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/17/2016 3:12:41 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:

Which candidate has a plan that would do the best job of raising overall wages without severe consequences?
"The right to 360 noscope noobs shall not be infringed!!!" -- tajshar2k
"So, to start off, I've never committed suicide." -- Vaarka
"I eat glue." -- brontoraptor
"I mean, at this rate, I'd argue for a ham sandwich presidency." -- ResponsiblyIrresponsible
"Overthrow Assad, heil jihad." -- 16kadams when trolling in hangout
"Hillary Clinton is not my favorite person ... and her campaign is as inspiring as a bowl of cottage cheese." -- YYW
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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3/17/2016 3:28:56 PM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/17/2016 3:20:50 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 3/17/2016 3:12:41 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:

Which candidate has a plan that would do the best job of raising overall wages without severe consequences?

Hillary Clinton.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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mc9
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3/19/2016 12:09:17 AM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/15/2016 7:55:36 PM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
Why not? Let's get another of these going.

As always, ask whatever questions you'd like about economics, and I'll answer as thoroughly as I can -- if it's over my head, I'll try to direct you to a reference better suited to answering your question.

With today being such an important election day, let's try to focus this thread on the election -- not on the political horserace, but on the specific policy proposals of the candidates (or, you know, in the case of the Republicans... whatever their gibberish lends itself to in the way of policy, if anything).

My speciality, of course, is monetary policy -- and the Fed meeting is tomorrow -- so as expected that's also on the table.

How exactly, do you believe Bernie's plans would be "disastrous" as you said
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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3/19/2016 12:17:54 AM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/19/2016 12:09:17 AM, mc9 wrote:
How exactly, do you believe Bernie's plans would be "disastrous" as you said

I think I said that once to YYW. I was obviously joking with that incredibly hyperbolic, Trump-esque term, but I do maintain that, when a whole slew of the most prominent, capable, progressive economists -- Krueger, Romer (and her husband), Krugman, DeLong, Goolsbee, Blinder, Summers, etc. -- are all on the same page (Hillary Clinton), that's nothing to scoff at.

Primarily, that's because Bernie's threaten any credibility the Democratic party might have as (I love this phrase, so I'll use it again) the party of responsible arithmetic. He isn't a bad guy and his heart is in the right place, but that doesn't make the magnitude of the assumptions he's been making any less grandiose.
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mc9
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3/19/2016 12:19:39 AM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/19/2016 12:17:54 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 3/19/2016 12:09:17 AM, mc9 wrote:
How exactly, do you believe Bernie's plans would be "disastrous" as you said

I think I said that once to YYW. I was obviously joking with that incredibly hyperbolic, Trump-esque term, but I do maintain that, when a whole slew of the most prominent, capable, progressive economists -- Krueger, Romer (and her husband), Krugman, DeLong, Goolsbee, Blinder, Summers, etc. -- are all on the same page (Hillary Clinton), that's nothing to scoff at.

Primarily, that's because Bernie's threaten any credibility the Democratic party might have as (I love this phrase, so I'll use it again) the party of responsible arithmetic. He isn't a bad guy and his heart is in the right place, but that doesn't make the magnitude of the assumptions he's been making any less grandiose.

Sorry, I should've worded that better, what I'm trying to say is, how do you think his plans would harm the economy upon implementation and how?
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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3/19/2016 1:25:53 AM
Posted: 8 months ago
At 3/19/2016 12:19:39 AM, mc9 wrote:
Sorry, I should've worded that better, what I'm trying to say is, how do you think his plans would harm the economy upon implementation and how?

Sure. Answering that obviously requires a lot of assumptions, but let's just go through some of his proposals and some of their drawbacks:

(a) Tax hikes: we haven't much experience in modern history of rates as high as he's proposing, and it's very likely they might erode the incentive to work and/or bear negatively on productivity.

(b) Auditing the Fed: erodes the Fed's independence, and the conventional research suggests that would tend to lead to higher-than-average inflation. But, with the current composition of Congress, there's reason to think the opposite might be the case -- i.e., Republicans might seek to prevent the Fed from doing its job by shackling it within some Taylor-Rule framework, eroding its ability to respond to demand shocks (and obviously there are employment implications to that).

(c) Repealing Glassed-Steagall: sounds good, on the face of it, until we consider that (a) too-big-to-fail wasn't the problem in 2008; shadow banking was and (b) consumer loans actually tend the be one of the most risky activity banks engage in, and this would deprive them of the ability to diversify -- so it might actually lead to even more concentrated risk.

(d) His Medicare-for-all, universal family leave, etc. plans sound really good on the face of it -- and maybe there's merit to them -- but paying for them require pretty significant tax hikes across the board. Obviously that hurts middle-class and lower-income people (especially when we consider that some of the passthrough of his higher income/payroll taxes on the affluent might translate into slightly higher prices, which is a de-facto regressive tax -- higher minimum wages tend to have the same effect, while also depressing employment, especially with such a large increase to $15). The only way it's a net benefit is if we assume (a) the wealthy bear most of the burden, which might be the case in terms of the overall tax bill, but not as a percentage of overall income (or at least relative to the ability to pay) or (b) that there are immense cost savings to single-payer, which there probably are, but they're not nearly as large, unfortunately, as Bernie would think based on almost all of the evidence I've seen.

There are probably a few more, but that's a good start.

I like the guy, but I think Hillary Clinton is, in all likelihood, a much better choice.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

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ColeTrain
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4/20/2016 11:41:40 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 3/19/2016 1:25:53 AM, ResponsiblyIrresponsible wrote:
At 3/19/2016 12:19:39 AM, mc9 wrote:
Sorry, I should've worded that better, what I'm trying to say is, how do you think his plans would harm the economy upon implementation and how?

Sure. Answering that obviously requires a lot of assumptions, but let's just go through some of his proposals and some of their drawbacks:

(a) Tax hikes: we haven't much experience in modern history of rates as high as he's proposing, and it's very likely they might erode the incentive to work and/or bear negatively on productivity.

Tax hikes are not a good thing. We need to reduce taxes, or in fact abolish them as a whole.

(b) Auditing the Fed: erodes the Fed's independence, and the conventional research suggests that would tend to lead to higher-than-average inflation. But, with the current composition of Congress, there's reason to think the opposite might be the case -- i.e., Republicans might seek to prevent the Fed from doing its job by shackling it within some Taylor-Rule framework, eroding its ability to respond to demand shocks (and obviously there are employment implications to that).

Ohh, that's interesting.

(c) Repealing Glassed-Steagall: sounds good, on the face of it, until we consider that (a) too-big-to-fail wasn't the problem in 2008; shadow banking was and (b) consumer loans actually tend the be one of the most risky activity banks engage in, and this would deprive them of the ability to diversify -- so it might actually lead to even more concentrated risk.

Hmm, that's interesting.

(d) His Medicare-for-all, universal family leave, etc. plans sound really good on the face of it -- and maybe there's merit to them -- but paying for them require pretty significant tax hikes across the board. Obviously that hurts middle-class and lower-income people (especially when we consider that some of the passthrough of his higher income/payroll taxes on the affluent might translate into slightly higher prices, which is a de-facto regressive tax -- higher minimum wages tend to have the same effect, while also depressing employment, especially with such a large increase to $15). The only way it's a net benefit is if we assume (a) the wealthy bear most of the burden, which might be the case in terms of the overall tax bill, but not as a percentage of overall income (or at least relative to the ability to pay) or (b) that there are immense cost savings to single-payer, which there probably are, but they're not nearly as large, unfortunately, as Bernie would think based on almost all of the evidence I've seen.

FINALLY. Someone who willingly recognizes that fact that isn't far right.

There are probably a few more, but that's a good start.

I like the guy, but I think Hillary Clinton is, in all likelihood, a much better choice.

I can't believe I didn't see this earlier. Regardless, my comments were sincere. I really like your analysis of stuff like this. You should come back. I don't have anyone to talk economics with anymore... :P
"The right to 360 noscope noobs shall not be infringed!!!" -- tajshar2k
"So, to start off, I've never committed suicide." -- Vaarka
"I eat glue." -- brontoraptor
"I mean, at this rate, I'd argue for a ham sandwich presidency." -- ResponsiblyIrresponsible
"Overthrow Assad, heil jihad." -- 16kadams when trolling in hangout
"Hillary Clinton is not my favorite person ... and her campaign is as inspiring as a bowl of cottage cheese." -- YYW
tejretics
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5/7/2016 1:55:56 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
What exactly would you say are the harms to a Trump presidency?
"Where justice is denied, where poverty is enforced, where ignorance prevails, and where any one class is made to feel that society is an organized conspiracy to oppress, rob and degrade them, neither persons nor property will be safe." - Frederick Douglass
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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5/7/2016 3:11:07 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 5/7/2016 1:55:56 PM, tejretics wrote:
What exactly would you say are the harms to a Trump presidency?

Having a bloviating, bigoted, rash, condescending, highly gullible -- Cruz's dad and the JFK thing, thinking one of his protesters was from ISIS because someone made a video with their spooky music, those dumb statistics about black people he retweets, etc. -- know-nothing in the WH who doesn't know a damned thing about policy, but is pretending to be anti-establishment even though he's responsible for elevating the establishment to where it is over the past 30 years.

That's a bit general, though. Here's a tangible harm: replacing Janet Yellen because she "isn't a Republican." (Totally anti-establishment, right?) We've done that before... we got Arthur Burns and the Great Inflation of the 70s. That's what happens when you subject monetary policy to political pressures, especially when Trump's idea of monetary policy is a weak dollar and low rates in perpetuity -- if that sounds ironic because it epitomizes his critique of CHINA (which isn't even valid because (a) the yuan is overvalued and has been since 2008 and (b) they're liberalizing their exchange rate and moving away from their crawling peg), then you're not alone.
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