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All Hail Jim Bullard

ResponsiblyIrresponsible
Posts: 12,398
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6/18/2016 8:07:13 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
https://www.stlouisfed.org...

Some of the best literature I've read in quite a while, and not inconsistent with what I wrote a few days ago. Jim agrees that the dot plot represents a de-facto commitment to policy action and the actual regime in which the economy operates isn't forecastable, so long-run outcomes are necessarily uncertain.

His use of Trimmed Mean PCE to forecast inflation is also interesting -- indeed, I cited this measure when arguing for a June rate hike.

I've never before seen a more articulate argument -- granted, one that he didn't make explicitly, but it necessarily follows -- for (a) massive, investment-geared fiscal stimulus and (b) maintaing an elevated balance sheet in perpetuity.

Things are probably as good as they're going to get, folks.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah
ResponsiblyIrresponsible
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6/18/2016 8:54:14 PM
Posted: 5 months ago
And, no, what I wrote on Wednesday was *not* "hawkish," nor is what Jim wrote in the above paper "dovish." That's a misuse of words and a (failed) attempt to apply the same standard across different economic regimes.
~ResponsiblyIrresponsible

DDO's Economics Messiah