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Help With Bayes Theorem on dumb internet meme

GOD-vs-ITSELF
Posts: 274
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7/26/2014 9:41:06 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
http://www.avoiceformen.com...
Okay this study is obviously a bunch of bullcrap, and not credible in the least. What made me curious was that it said Mothers abused children 91% of the time and Father 7%, I thought it was weird it didn't add to 100% when I realized you have to consider the Mother and Father independently

M = Men
W = Women
A = Abuse
A' = Don't Abuse
P(A | M) = 3.5%
P(A' | M) = 46.5%
P(A | W) = 45.5%
P(A' | W) = 4.5%
P(M) = 50%
P(W) = 50%
P(A) = 49%
P(A') = 51%
P(A' | M) / P(A' | W) = 10.333...

I Feel like this is all wrong but I have been looking at it too long to notice a problem without creating a bigger one.
If You Believe In Free Will, Then Don't Picture A Hippo For One Minute. Starting NOW
Wylted
Posts: 21,167
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7/29/2014 2:59:11 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/26/2014 9:41:06 PM, GOD-vs-ITSELF wrote:
http://www.avoiceformen.com...
Okay this study is obviously a bunch of bullcrap, and not credible in the least. What made me curious was that it said Mothers abused children 91% of the time and Father 7%, I thought it was weird it didn't add to 100% when I realized you have to consider the Mother and Father independently

M = Men
W = Women
A = Abuse
A' = Don't Abuse
P(A | M) = 3.5%
P(A' | M) = 46.5%
P(A | W) = 45.5%
P(A' | W) = 4.5%
P(M) = 50%
P(W) = 50%
P(A) = 49%
P(A') = 51%
P(A' | M) / P(A' | W) = 10.333...

I Feel like this is all wrong but I have been looking at it too long to notice a problem without creating a bigger one.

It's probably considering another relative the other 3% of the time.