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Beginner Mafia DP4

Andromeda_Z
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8/8/2011 4:49:12 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Now, why exactly are you people voting for a no lynch? It's DP4, we had better have some good suspicions by now! It's not like it's the first DP, when we have nothing to go on.

Freedom, those ratios you posted assume random choice of a target. We're not going to pick randomly, so those don't work.
MCDCBC
Posts: 69
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8/8/2011 5:20:59 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 8/8/2011 4:49:12 PM, Andromeda_Z wrote:
Now, why exactly are you people voting for a no lynch? It's DP4, we had better have some good suspicions by now! It's not like it's the first DP, when we have nothing to go on.

Freedom, those ratios you posted assume random choice of a target. We're not going to pick randomly, so those don't work.

Yeah but we accidentally lynched a townie last day phase, so are suspicions haven't been very good.
freedomsquared
Posts: 450
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8/8/2011 5:26:27 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 8/8/2011 5:20:59 PM, MCDCBC wrote:
At 8/8/2011 4:49:12 PM, Andromeda_Z wrote:
Now, why exactly are you people voting for a no lynch? It's DP4, we had better have some good suspicions by now! It's not like it's the first DP, when we have nothing to go on.

Freedom, those ratios you posted assume random choice of a target. We're not going to pick randomly, so those don't work.

Yeah but we accidentally lynched a townie last day phase, so are suspicions haven't been very good.

Even if we go on suspicions, that's barely better than random odds. I think the actual increase from 33% chance of lynching a mafia to 40% is better than a hunch.

It comes down to this, today or tomorrow we will have to make a choice that will decide the outcome of this game. If we do it today, we have a 7% less chance than if we do it tomorrow. Assuming we do a no lynch today, and we get the lynch tomorrow, it will be 1 mafia to 3 townies. The next day it will be 1 mafia to 2 townies. That will give us the best odds of winning at 50%.
But it's Norway, sort of the Canada of Europe."
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Andromeda_Z
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8/8/2011 5:27:10 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 8/8/2011 5:20:59 PM, MCDCBC wrote:
At 8/8/2011 4:49:12 PM, Andromeda_Z wrote:
Now, why exactly are you people voting for a no lynch? It's DP4, we had better have some good suspicions by now! It's not like it's the first DP, when we have nothing to go on.

Freedom, those ratios you posted assume random choice of a target. We're not going to pick randomly, so those don't work.

Yeah but we accidentally lynched a townie last day phase, so are suspicions haven't been very good.

You're taking one bad event and trying to say it's a pattern, which just doesn't work. If your suspicions aren't good, then improve them. Pressure people, don't just go along with someone who practically says "well, we'll let the mafia kill off a townie in the NP so there's one less in our way when we're trying to get the mafia next DP".
freedomsquared
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8/8/2011 5:39:15 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 8/8/2011 5:27:10 PM, Andromeda_Z wrote:
At 8/8/2011 5:20:59 PM, MCDCBC wrote:
At 8/8/2011 4:49:12 PM, Andromeda_Z wrote:
Now, why exactly are you people voting for a no lynch? It's DP4, we had better have some good suspicions by now! It's not like it's the first DP, when we have nothing to go on.

Freedom, those ratios you posted assume random choice of a target. We're not going to pick randomly, so those don't work.

Yeah but we accidentally lynched a townie last day phase, so are suspicions haven't been very good.

You're taking one bad event and trying to say it's a pattern, which just doesn't work. If your suspicions aren't good, then improve them. Pressure people, don't just go along with someone who practically says "well, we'll let the mafia kill off a townie in the NP so there's one less in our way when we're trying to get the mafia next DP".

Why don't you see that this strategy makes the most sense? I want to make the odds the best possible for us to win this game. The only way we can do that is if we do a no lynch today.
But it's Norway, sort of the Canada of Europe."
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wierdman
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8/8/2011 10:19:31 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 8/8/2011 5:39:15 PM, freedomsquared wrote:
At 8/8/2011 5:27:10 PM, Andromeda_Z wrote:
At 8/8/2011 5:20:59 PM, MCDCBC wrote:
At 8/8/2011 4:49:12 PM, Andromeda_Z wrote:
Now, why exactly are you people voting for a no lynch? It's DP4, we had better have some good suspicions by now! It's not like it's the first DP, when we have nothing to go on.

Freedom, those ratios you posted assume random choice of a target. We're not going to pick randomly, so those don't work.

Yeah but we accidentally lynched a townie last day phase, so are suspicions haven't been very good.

You're taking one bad event and trying to say it's a pattern, which just doesn't work. If your suspicions aren't good, then improve them. Pressure people, don't just go along with someone who practically says "well, we'll let the mafia kill off a townie in the NP so there's one less in our way when we're trying to get the mafia next DP".

Why don't you see that this strategy makes the most sense? I want to make the odds the best possible for us to win this game. The only way we can do that is if we do a no lynch today.

I agree with freedom squared because, if we eliminate the wrong person today, then it might as well be game over for the rest.
i choose to VTNL
Andromeda_Z
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8/8/2011 10:26:37 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 8/8/2011 5:39:15 PM, freedomsquared wrote:
At 8/8/2011 5:27:10 PM, Andromeda_Z wrote:
At 8/8/2011 5:20:59 PM, MCDCBC wrote:
At 8/8/2011 4:49:12 PM, Andromeda_Z wrote:
Now, why exactly are you people voting for a no lynch? It's DP4, we had better have some good suspicions by now! It's not like it's the first DP, when we have nothing to go on.

Freedom, those ratios you posted assume random choice of a target. We're not going to pick randomly, so those don't work.

Yeah but we accidentally lynched a townie last day phase, so are suspicions haven't been very good.

You're taking one bad event and trying to say it's a pattern, which just doesn't work. If your suspicions aren't good, then improve them. Pressure people, don't just go along with someone who practically says "well, we'll let the mafia kill off a townie in the NP so there's one less in our way when we're trying to get the mafia next DP".

Why don't you see that this strategy makes the most sense? I want to make the odds the best possible for us to win this game. The only way we can do that is if we do a no lynch today.

Okay, so lets say we don't lynch anyone this DP. Why not try to get some more information to make it easier to accurately choose a target next DP, rather than going straight for the no lynch? Unless, of course, you know who you think we should lynch already, in which case we can do that right now.
Logic_on_rails
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8/9/2011 2:51:08 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 8/8/2011 10:26:37 PM, Andromeda_Z wrote:
At 8/8/2011 5:39:15 PM, freedomsquared wrote:
At 8/8/2011 5:27:10 PM, Andromeda_Z wrote:
At 8/8/2011 5:20:59 PM, MCDCBC wrote:
At 8/8/2011 4:49:12 PM, Andromeda_Z wrote:
Now, why exactly are you people voting for a no lynch? It's DP4, we had better have some good suspicions by now! It's not like it's the first DP, when we have nothing to go on.

Freedom, those ratios you posted assume random choice of a target. We're not going to pick randomly, so those don't work.

Yeah but we accidentally lynched a townie last day phase, so are suspicions haven't been very good.

You're taking one bad event and trying to say it's a pattern, which just doesn't work. If your suspicions aren't good, then improve them. Pressure people, don't just go along with someone who practically says "well, we'll let the mafia kill off a townie in the NP so there's one less in our way when we're trying to get the mafia next DP".

Why don't you see that this strategy makes the most sense? I want to make the odds the best possible for us to win this game. The only way we can do that is if we do a no lynch today.

Okay, so lets say we don't lynch anyone this DP. Why not try to get some more information to make it easier to accurately choose a target next DP, rather than going straight for the no lynch? Unless, of course, you know who you think we should lynch already, in which case we can do that right now.

My apologies people for not posting earlier in this DP at a substantial length, but I literally couldn't have stayed another minute!

The above post (yes post, not posts) is the thought of thing that the town needs to consider. I believe we should VTNL, however, we should try and trade accusations or something so that we have something more to work with next DP. It's for that reason that I'm not voting, and have a slight town read on Andromeda (also for other reasons as well, although there are counterbalances) . Personally, I find the inconsistency and lack of reasoning in MCDCBC especially and to a lesser extent others to be a bit odd. Hence, they are a bit suspicious in my view.

Of course, nobody's clear in my books. But, put simply, we should discuss a bit longer this DP as opposed to simply jumping into the NP.
"Tis not in mortals to command success
But we"ll do more, Sempronius, we"ll deserve it
freedomsquared
Posts: 450
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8/9/2011 10:26:07 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 8/8/2011 10:26:37 PM, Andromeda_Z wrote:
At 8/8/2011 5:39:15 PM, freedomsquared wrote:
At 8/8/2011 5:27:10 PM, Andromeda_Z wrote:
At 8/8/2011 5:20:59 PM, MCDCBC wrote:
At 8/8/2011 4:49:12 PM, Andromeda_Z wrote:
Now, why exactly are you people voting for a no lynch? It's DP4, we had better have some good suspicions by now! It's not like it's the first DP, when we have nothing to go on.

Freedom, those ratios you posted assume random choice of a target. We're not going to pick randomly, so those don't work.

Yeah but we accidentally lynched a townie last day phase, so are suspicions haven't been very good.

You're taking one bad event and trying to say it's a pattern, which just doesn't work. If your suspicions aren't good, then improve them. Pressure people, don't just go along with someone who practically says "well, we'll let the mafia kill off a townie in the NP so there's one less in our way when we're trying to get the mafia next DP".

Why don't you see that this strategy makes the most sense? I want to make the odds the best possible for us to win this game. The only way we can do that is if we do a no lynch today.

Okay, so lets say we don't lynch anyone this DP. Why not try to get some more information to make it easier to accurately choose a target next DP, rather than going straight for the no lynch? Unless, of course, you know who you think we should lynch already, in which case we can do that right now.

I don't know who we should lynch, which is exactly the point. However, I do see the merit of an extended day phase for discussions. I don't have anything concrete, but my top two suspicions are:

1. MCDCBC
He hasn't given much analysis on the part of the town but instead seems to come on only to bandwagon vote and end the day phase. His eagerness to reach the night phase and lack of enthusiasm for the day phase make me suspicious.

2. Andromeda_Z
I feel like you're being manipulative, much more so then when you were previously a townie. The way you have been playing changed after you died (more aggressive) and that's why I suspect you.

However, both of these are only feelings and I have nothing solid to go on. That's why I want to get a no lynch today.
But it's Norway, sort of the Canada of Europe."
-innomen

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Logic_on_rails
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8/9/2011 4:18:09 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 8/9/2011 3:27:46 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Remember, this DP ends tomorrow at 10 AM PST (20 1/2 hours).

I remind people - I can vote to end the DP yet I see no point. We should be gathering information... Keep talking. Of course, I can end the DP because I don't think we'll get another result, but let's try and be reasonable here...
"Tis not in mortals to command success
But we"ll do more, Sempronius, we"ll deserve it
freedomsquared
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8/9/2011 6:14:12 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 8/9/2011 4:18:09 PM, Logic_on_rails wrote:
At 8/9/2011 3:27:46 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Remember, this DP ends tomorrow at 10 AM PST (20 1/2 hours).

I remind people - I can vote to end the DP yet I see no point. We should be gathering information... Keep talking. Of course, I can end the DP because I don't think we'll get another result, but let's try and be reasonable here...

Well, then what are you're suspicions?
But it's Norway, sort of the Canada of Europe."
-innomen

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MCDCBC
Posts: 69
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8/9/2011 8:02:16 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 8/9/2011 10:26:07 AM, freedomsquared wrote:
At 8/8/2011 10:26:37 PM, Andromeda_Z wrote:
At 8/8/2011 5:39:15 PM, freedomsquared wrote:
At 8/8/2011 5:27:10 PM, Andromeda_Z wrote:
At 8/8/2011 5:20:59 PM, MCDCBC wrote:
At 8/8/2011 4:49:12 PM, Andromeda_Z wrote:
Now, why exactly are you people voting for a no lynch? It's DP4, we had better have some good suspicions by now! It's not like it's the first DP, when we have nothing to go on.

Freedom, those ratios you posted assume random choice of a target. We're not going to pick randomly, so those don't work.

Yeah but we accidentally lynched a townie last day phase, so are suspicions haven't been very good.

You're taking one bad event and trying to say it's a pattern, which just doesn't work. If your suspicions aren't good, then improve them. Pressure people, don't just go along with someone who practically says "well, we'll let the mafia kill off a townie in the NP so there's one less in our way when we're trying to get the mafia next DP".

Why don't you see that this strategy makes the most sense? I want to make the odds the best possible for us to win this game. The only way we can do that is if we do a no lynch today.

Okay, so lets say we don't lynch anyone this DP. Why not try to get some more information to make it easier to accurately choose a target next DP, rather than going straight for the no lynch? Unless, of course, you know who you think we should lynch already, in which case we can do that right now.

I don't know who we should lynch, which is exactly the point. However, I do see the merit of an extended day phase for discussions. I don't have anything concrete, but my top two suspicions are:

1. MCDCBC
He hasn't given much analysis on the part of the town but instead seems to come on only to bandwagon vote and end the day phase. His eagerness to reach the night phase and lack of enthusiasm for the day phase make me suspicious.

2. Andromeda_Z
I feel like you're being manipulative, much more so then when you were previously a townie. The way you have been playing changed after you died (more aggressive) and that's why I suspect you.

However, both of these are only feelings and I have nothing solid to go on. That's why I want to get a no lynch today.
I do agree with your suspicions about Andromeda_z. As I mad quite clear in the last DP I was already suspicious of her. I will admit that I do have a tendency to bandwagon on to who everyone else seems to be voting for. For these reason I have decided to Unvote.
Andromeda_Z
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8/9/2011 9:11:37 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 8/9/2011 10:26:07 AM, freedomsquared wrote:
I don't know who we should lynch, which is exactly the point. However, I do see the merit of an extended day phase for discussions.

Okay. As long as we don't jump straight to a no lynch without discussion this late in the game, I'm fine with it. Sorry for being so stubborn earlier.
I don't have anything concrete, but my top two suspicions are:

1. MCDCBC
He hasn't given much analysis on the part of the town but instead seems to come on only to bandwagon vote and end the day phase. His eagerness to reach the night phase and lack of enthusiasm for the day phase make me suspicious.

2. Andromeda_Z
I feel like you're being manipulative, much more so then when you were previously a townie. The way you have been playing changed after you died (more aggressive) and that's why I suspect you.

During my first life, I only participated in the first DP. I don't like to be aggressive on the first DP because I have nothing to go on. As the game progresses, I have more suspicions, and thus more reason to be aggressive. The way I play the game has changed after I died, but not because I died. It's because the game has progressed to a point where it's not pure guesswork. There's no reason to be aggressive about a random guess.

However, both of these are only feelings and I have nothing solid to go on. That's why I want to get a no lynch today.
Andromeda_Z
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8/9/2011 9:19:31 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 8/9/2011 8:02:16 PM, MCDCBC wrote:
I do agree with your suspicions about Andromeda_z. As I mad quite clear in the last DP I was already suspicious of her. I will admit that I do have a tendency to bandwagon on to who everyone else seems to be voting for. For these reason I have decided to Unvote

Coming to an agreement on someone to pressure is one thing. Blindly bandwagoning is another. Think things through first and come to your own conclusions, or you look like mafia.
Andromeda_Z
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8/9/2011 9:36:26 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Since we're using this DP to discuss suspicions, here's my list:

MCDCBC - Bandwagoning, contradicting herself, failing to actually address my suspicions last DP, and not presenting any of her own reasoning (which shows me she doesn't care to help the town find the mafia).

Weirdman - Earlier in the game, he wasn't making any sense. Now, he just sporadically logs on and bandwagons. Not at all helpful.

I was suspicious of freedomsquared for suggesting we go straight to a no lynch this late in the game, but he agreed to at least discuss things first, so I'm no longer all that suspicious of him.
MCDCBC
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8/9/2011 11:32:02 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 8/9/2011 9:36:26 PM, Andromeda_Z wrote:
Since we're using this DP to discuss suspicions, here's my list:

MCDCBC - Bandwagoning, contradicting herself, failing to actually address my suspicions last DP, and not presenting any of her own reasoning (which shows me she doesn't care to help the town find the mafia).

Weirdman - Earlier in the game, he wasn't making any sense. Now, he just sporadically logs on and bandwagons. Not at all helpful.

I was suspicious of freedomsquared for suggesting we go straight to a no lynch this late in the game, but he agreed to at least discuss things first, so I'm no longer all that suspicious of him.

I did actually present my own reasoning last DP if you remember correctly and I did adress your sucpisions. I am still suspicious of you though and you have not been playing the same sense you were killed I am changing my vote again VTL Andromeda_z
Andromeda_Z
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8/9/2011 11:45:32 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 8/9/2011 11:32:02 PM, MCDCBC wrote:
At 8/9/2011 9:36:26 PM, Andromeda_Z wrote:
Since we're using this DP to discuss suspicions, here's my list:

MCDCBC - Bandwagoning, contradicting herself, failing to actually address my suspicions last DP, and not presenting any of her own reasoning (which shows me she doesn't care to help the town find the mafia).

Weirdman - Earlier in the game, he wasn't making any sense. Now, he just sporadically logs on and bandwagons. Not at all helpful.

I was suspicious of freedomsquared for suggesting we go straight to a no lynch this late in the game, but he agreed to at least discuss things first, so I'm no longer all that suspicious of him.

I did actually present my own reasoning last DP if you remember correctly

Okay, post a quote of something you said that isn't just a repetition of someone else's idea.
and I did adress your sucpisions.

Not satisfactorily. You said you didn't contradict yourself because you were too lazy to type out what you meant in the first place. You then said some non sequitir about me not being the same person as I was in the first DP (it's true, but I'm not sure what you're point was).
I am still suspicious of you though and you have not been playing the same sense you were killed I am changing my vote again VTL Andromeda_z

I already explained this. Copied from before (it's even on the same page!): "During my first life, I only participated in the first DP. I don't like to be aggressive on the first DP because I have nothing to go on. As the game progresses, I have more suspicions, and thus more reason to be aggressive. The way I play the game has changed after I died, but not because I died. It's because the game has progressed to a point where it's not pure guesswork. There's no reason to be aggressive about a random guess."
Logic_on_rails
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8/10/2011 1:52:02 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 8/9/2011 6:14:12 PM, freedomsquared wrote:
At 8/9/2011 4:18:09 PM, Logic_on_rails wrote:
At 8/9/2011 3:27:46 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Remember, this DP ends tomorrow at 10 AM PST (20 1/2 hours).

I remind people - I can vote to end the DP yet I see no point. We should be gathering information... Keep talking. Of course, I can end the DP because I don't think we'll get another result, but let's try and be reasonable here...

Well, then what are you're suspicions?

Check my earlier post in this thread (page 1) . MCD... is my prime suspect, although prime doesn't mean so much when it's all hunches. Following this are a variety of interesting arguments which I am analysing, however, I need to see a death to piece together the results of these arguments. Also, bandwagoning players and those who don't offer coherent reasoning (ie. Weirdman) are also closer to the top of my list than say, Andromeda. However, due to somebody like Andromeda having experience, I somewhat expect coherent reasoning, and there's the DP 1 scenario.

Put simply, nobody's out of my sight yet. Also, are we planning to run this DP out?
"Tis not in mortals to command success
But we"ll do more, Sempronius, we"ll deserve it
wierdman
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8/10/2011 6:49:05 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 8/10/2011 1:52:02 AM, Logic_on_rails wrote:
At 8/9/2011 6:14:12 PM, freedomsquared wrote:
At 8/9/2011 4:18:09 PM, Logic_on_rails wrote:
At 8/9/2011 3:27:46 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Remember, this DP ends tomorrow at 10 AM PST (20 1/2 hours).

I remind people - I can vote to end the DP yet I see no point. We should be gathering information... Keep talking. Of course, I can end the DP because I don't think we'll get another result, but let's try and be reasonable here...

Well, then what are you're suspicions?

Check my earlier post in this thread (page 1) . MCD... is my prime suspect, although prime doesn't mean so much when it's all hunches. Following this are a variety of interesting arguments which I am analysing, however, I need to see a death to piece together the results of these arguments. Also, bandwagoning players and those who don't offer coherent reasoning (ie. Weirdman) are also closer to the top of my list than say, Andromeda. However, due to somebody like Andromeda having experience, I somewhat expect coherent reasoning, and there's the DP 1 scenario.

Put simply, nobody's out of my sight yet. Also, are we planning to run this DP out?

there isn't much to say on this point besides the fact that i did offer my reasons. My reason for vtnl was not because someone else suggested it but because it brings up an interesting scenario. If we were to vote for no lynch, then the odds lynching the right person is increased but rush to a vote today, and well you might just pick the wrong person.
Ore_Ele
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8/10/2011 9:25:00 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
Current Vote Count

Vote To No Lynch (VTNL) - 2/4 [freedom, Wierdman]
Andromeda_Z - 1/4 [MCDCBC]

About 2 1/2 hours left.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Man-is-good
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8/10/2011 9:29:32 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
VTNL.

The general atmosphere of this thread is one of contention and argument, with members suspecting each others. I agree with freedom: we can't let the mafia win if we kill off enough townies (so far, the number of mafia members killed in relation to the townies has been astronomically low), or risk losing the entire game.

However, I am willing to look into other options if any member wishes to convince me to change my vote.
"Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto." --Terence

"I believe that the mind can be permanently profaned by the habit of attending to trivial things, so that all our thoughts shall be tinged with triviality."--Thoreau
Ore_Ele
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8/10/2011 1:00:41 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
This DP has ended and resulted in a no lynch.

We are now moving into the NP.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"