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# Mafia: DDO lynch statistics

 Posts: 4,434 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 11/22/2011 5:01:44 PMPosted: 4 years agoI was curious how often lynches resulted in townies vs. non-townies being killed, so I looked at a bunch of past games on DDO and took some notes.My method was to take no more than 3 data points from any single game. When taking multiple data points from a single game, I tried to take data from nonconsecutive days only. This second rule wasnt always practical so it was applied as best I could but not always. I discarded VTNLs.Here is what I found, listing the day, the percentage of lynches that resulted in NON-TOWN BEING LYNCHED (third party included), followed by the sample size.Day 1: 0%, n=4Day 2: 55% n=9Day 3: 50% n=10Day 4: 64% n=11Day 5: 63% n=8Day 6: 0% n=3Day 7: 66% n=3Day 8: 75% n=4Day 9: 0% n=1Overall: 53%, n=53I was hoping for a total n around 100 with an n=10 for each day, but I ran out of games to look at (the Games forum history only goes back about 27 pages).I know this is all very non-rigorous data collection and analysis, but I had to do everything manually and didnt want to spend more than about 30 min. on this.
 Posts: 4,434 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 11/22/2011 5:04:37 PMPosted: 4 years agoI also note that I looked at a lot of DP 1's because so many are VTNL. I didnt see a single DP1 lynch result in a non-town death. I think this confirms the common wisdom that DP1 should be played out as a VTNL.
 Posts: 12,301 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 11/22/2011 7:10:14 PMPosted: 4 years agoAt 11/22/2011 5:04:37 PM, Raisor wrote:I also note that I looked at a lot of DP 1's because so many are VTNL. I didnt see a single DP1 lynch result in a non-town death. I think this confirms the common wisdom that DP1 should be played out as a VTNL.I'm curious - what were the 4 DP1 lynches?You're definitely leaving out danielle's quickfire game, where i was mafia and lynched DP1.You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
 Posts: 4,434 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 11/22/2011 11:11:20 PMPosted: 4 years agoAt 11/22/2011 7:10:14 PM, bluesteel wrote:At 11/22/2011 5:04:37 PM, Raisor wrote:I also note that I looked at a lot of DP 1's because so many are VTNL. I didnt see a single DP1 lynch result in a non-town death. I think this confirms the common wisdom that DP1 should be played out as a VTNL.I'm curious - what were the 4 DP1 lynches?You're definitely leaving out danielle's quickfire game, where i was mafia and lynched DP1.I definitely didnt look at every DP1, though I did look at more DP1's than other day numbers. Looking at DP6 or DP9, the 0% doesnt really mean anything because there just werent that many days available to look at and you wouldnt expect DP6 to be drastically different than DP5 or 7.I do think it is telling that I looked at a large number of DP1's and most were VTNL's and the 4 lynches I saw were of innocent townies. I wish I had more games available to look at to get bigger sample sizes.Like I said, this was just a quick sample so I didnt write down which games all the numbers came from.
 Posts: 12,301 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 11/23/2011 12:39:01 AMPosted: 4 years agoAh ok. I think we lynched belle (mafia) in DP1 of Roald Dahl vs. Dr. Seuss. She fake claimed bomb.But we did a mass character claim and she claimed the Worm from James and the Giant Peach, so that was kind of obvious. I miss mass claims...You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
 Posts: 10,458 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 11/23/2011 12:47:58 AMPosted: 4 years agoAt 11/23/2011 12:39:01 AM, bluesteel wrote:Ah ok. I think we lynched belle (mafia) in DP1 of Roald Dahl vs. Dr. Seuss. She fake claimed bomb.But we did a mass character claim and she claimed the Worm from James and the Giant Peach, so that was kind of obvious. I miss mass claims...While they could help the town in most situations I think they defeat the purpose of mafia. Though of course it's up to the majority to decide in a game.: At 9/29/2014 10:55:59 AM, imabench wrote: : : At 9/29/2014 9:43:46 AM, kbub wrote: : : : : DDO should discredit support of sexual violence at any time and in every way. : : I disagree.
 Posts: 5,599 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 11/23/2011 12:58:39 AMPosted: 4 years agoAt 11/23/2011 12:47:58 AM, socialpinko wrote:At 11/23/2011 12:39:01 AM, bluesteel wrote:Ah ok. I think we lynched belle (mafia) in DP1 of Roald Dahl vs. Dr. Seuss. She fake claimed bomb.But we did a mass character claim and she claimed the Worm from James and the Giant Peach, so that was kind of obvious. I miss mass claims...While they could help the town in most situations I think they defeat the purpose of mafia. Though of course it's up to the majority to decide in a game.i would like to try a mass character claim to be honest. pressuring people for characters only is so stupid =\ it wouldn't even necessarily disadvantage mafia too much, if they think about what they will claim ahead of time, and it would lock them in a bit.WAKE UP AND READ THIS: http://www.debate.org...
 Posts: 4,597 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 11/23/2011 1:50:45 AMPosted: 4 years agoAt 11/22/2011 5:01:44 PM, Raisor wrote:I was hoping for a total n around 100 with an n=10 for each day, but I ran out of games to look at (the Games forum history only goes back about 27 pages).If you want better data, there are a TON of games in the Miscellaneous forum, which is where games were held before there was a Games forum.You could probably get your n=100.When large numbers of otherwise-law abiding people break specific laws en masse, it's usually a fault that lies with the law. - Unknown
 Posts: 12,301 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 11/24/2011 9:53:27 AMPosted: 4 years agoalso, you should disaggregate jesters from the data. Town isn't supposed to lynch them.You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
 Posts: 12,301 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 11/24/2011 9:54:08 AMPosted: 4 years agoThis is awesome though :) A statistical approach to making mafia decisions...You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)