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Mafia: DDO lynch statistics

Raisor
Posts: 4,462
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11/22/2011 5:01:44 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
I was curious how often lynches resulted in townies vs. non-townies being killed, so I looked at a bunch of past games on DDO and took some notes.

My method was to take no more than 3 data points from any single game. When taking multiple data points from a single game, I tried to take data from nonconsecutive days only. This second rule wasnt always practical so it was applied as best I could but not always. I discarded VTNLs.

Here is what I found, listing the day, the percentage of lynches that resulted in NON-TOWN BEING LYNCHED (third party included), followed by the sample size.

Day 1: 0%, n=4
Day 2: 55% n=9
Day 3: 50% n=10
Day 4: 64% n=11
Day 5: 63% n=8
Day 6: 0% n=3
Day 7: 66% n=3
Day 8: 75% n=4
Day 9: 0% n=1

Overall: 53%, n=53

I was hoping for a total n around 100 with an n=10 for each day, but I ran out of games to look at (the Games forum history only goes back about 27 pages).

I know this is all very non-rigorous data collection and analysis, but I had to do everything manually and didnt want to spend more than about 30 min. on this.
Raisor
Posts: 4,462
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11/22/2011 5:04:37 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
I also note that I looked at a lot of DP 1's because so many are VTNL. I didnt see a single DP1 lynch result in a non-town death. I think this confirms the common wisdom that DP1 should be played out as a VTNL.
bluesteel
Posts: 12,301
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11/22/2011 7:10:14 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/22/2011 5:04:37 PM, Raisor wrote:
I also note that I looked at a lot of DP 1's because so many are VTNL. I didnt see a single DP1 lynch result in a non-town death. I think this confirms the common wisdom that DP1 should be played out as a VTNL.

I'm curious - what were the 4 DP1 lynches?

You're definitely leaving out danielle's quickfire game, where i was mafia and lynched DP1.
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
Raisor
Posts: 4,462
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11/22/2011 11:11:20 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/22/2011 7:10:14 PM, bluesteel wrote:
At 11/22/2011 5:04:37 PM, Raisor wrote:
I also note that I looked at a lot of DP 1's because so many are VTNL. I didnt see a single DP1 lynch result in a non-town death. I think this confirms the common wisdom that DP1 should be played out as a VTNL.

I'm curious - what were the 4 DP1 lynches?

You're definitely leaving out danielle's quickfire game, where i was mafia and lynched DP1.

I definitely didnt look at every DP1, though I did look at more DP1's than other day numbers. Looking at DP6 or DP9, the 0% doesnt really mean anything because there just werent that many days available to look at and you wouldnt expect DP6 to be drastically different than DP5 or 7.

I do think it is telling that I looked at a large number of DP1's and most were VTNL's and the 4 lynches I saw were of innocent townies. I wish I had more games available to look at to get bigger sample sizes.

Like I said, this was just a quick sample so I didnt write down which games all the numbers came from.
bluesteel
Posts: 12,301
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11/23/2011 12:39:01 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
Ah ok. I think we lynched belle (mafia) in DP1 of Roald Dahl vs. Dr. Seuss. She fake claimed bomb.

But we did a mass character claim and she claimed the Worm from James and the Giant Peach, so that was kind of obvious. I miss mass claims...
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
socialpinko
Posts: 10,458
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11/23/2011 12:47:58 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/23/2011 12:39:01 AM, bluesteel wrote:
Ah ok. I think we lynched belle (mafia) in DP1 of Roald Dahl vs. Dr. Seuss. She fake claimed bomb.

But we did a mass character claim and she claimed the Worm from James and the Giant Peach, so that was kind of obvious. I miss mass claims...

While they could help the town in most situations I think they defeat the purpose of mafia. Though of course it's up to the majority to decide in a game.
: At 9/29/2014 10:55:59 AM, imabench wrote:
: : At 9/29/2014 9:43:46 AM, kbub wrote:
: :
: : DDO should discredit support of sexual violence at any time and in every way.
:
: I disagree.
Lickdafoot
Posts: 5,599
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11/23/2011 12:58:39 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/23/2011 12:47:58 AM, socialpinko wrote:
At 11/23/2011 12:39:01 AM, bluesteel wrote:
Ah ok. I think we lynched belle (mafia) in DP1 of Roald Dahl vs. Dr. Seuss. She fake claimed bomb.

But we did a mass character claim and she claimed the Worm from James and the Giant Peach, so that was kind of obvious. I miss mass claims...

While they could help the town in most situations I think they defeat the purpose of mafia. Though of course it's up to the majority to decide in a game.

i would like to try a mass character claim to be honest. pressuring people for characters only is so stupid =\ it wouldn't even necessarily disadvantage mafia too much, if they think about what they will claim ahead of time, and it would lock them in a bit.
WAKE UP AND READ THIS: http://www.debate.org...
Korashk
Posts: 4,597
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11/23/2011 1:50:45 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/22/2011 5:01:44 PM, Raisor wrote:
I was hoping for a total n around 100 with an n=10 for each day, but I ran out of games to look at (the Games forum history only goes back about 27 pages).

If you want better data, there are a TON of games in the Miscellaneous forum, which is where games were held before there was a Games forum.

You could probably get your n=100.
When large numbers of otherwise-law abiding people break specific laws en masse, it's usually a fault that lies with the law. - Unknown
bluesteel
Posts: 12,301
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11/24/2011 9:53:27 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
also, you should disaggregate jesters from the data. Town isn't supposed to lynch them.
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
bluesteel
Posts: 12,301
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11/24/2011 9:54:08 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
This is awesome though :) A statistical approach to making mafia decisions...
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)