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Classic Mafia - DP5

Danielle
Posts: 21,330
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11/27/2011 3:52:38 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
== Overheard in Morristown ==

TONY: But boss, why do you have to turn yourself in? Isn't there another way?

VITO: The gig is up. Everybody's on to me.

TONY: But they just let you off... You were ruled innocent, didn't you hear?!

VITO: I know, but it's too late. I have to look over my shoulder constantly. I may have escaped that one, but I've got a whole town to answer to. Sacrificing myself is the only chance we have at this point. I need to get people on our side to make sure the entire operation doesn't fall apart. Hopefully this new guy will be of much better use to you than I was... take care of each other, and good luck.

== ACTIVE PLAYERS ==

01. Drafterman
02. Blackvoid
03. M.Torres
04. socialpinko
05. Spritle
06. Blackhawk1331

You need 4 votes to carry out a lynch.

== GRAVEYARD ==

Andromeda_Z: You are Wendy, the watcher. Each night phase you may choose a player to watch. You will be told who, if anyone, visits them during the night. You win with the town.

Lickdafoot: You are Paul, the framer. Each night phase you may choose one player to appear guilty (mafia) upon investigation. Right now your older brother (Vito) is in charge of the mafia's operations. You want to replace your newly deceased dad as the family's Godfather, and need Vito dead in order to get that role. As such, you have the secret win condition of getting your brother killed. If that happens, you will appear innocent upon investigation and take over control of your team. While you will still win if the mafia wins, you get extra points if you live and Vito dies.

Lordknukle: You are Amy, the beloved princess. Everyone loves you :) If the town and/or a townie kills you, a day phase will be skipped. If a mafioso kills you, a night phase will be skipped. You win with the town.

Tvellalott: You are Tom, the tracker. Each night phase, you have the ability to track a player and see whom if anyone they visit during the night. You win with the town.

lovelife: You are Pete, the defense attorney. Each night you may protect one of your mafia teammates from appearing guilty upon investigation. You cannot represent yourself in a case, so you cannot use this power on yourself. You win with the mafia.

PartamRuhem: You are Katelyn, the bomb. If you die, you will take down the last person to target you. If you are lynched during the day phase, the last person to vote for you will also die. If you are targeted at night, the killer will go down with you. You win with the town.

bluesteel: You are Kyle, the bulletproof. Nobody will be able to kill you during the night. You win with the town (( RECRUITED TO CULT )).

Medic0506: You are Liza, the cop. Each night phase you may investigate one player's alignment. You win with the town.

F-16_Fighting_Falcon: You are Vito, the sneak. Though you are guilty, you can be recruited into any group undetected. Though it should be a group effort, you will make the final kill decisions for the mafia (who kills whom). You are essentially a Godfather who does not automatically come up innocent upon investigation. You win with the mafia.
President of DDO
blackhawk1331
Posts: 4,932
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11/27/2011 4:06:32 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
This is DP 5. There's clearly a cult. They have 4 recruits plus the recruiter. One is dead. What's up? They should have won. If we are assuming there are two mafia left, then that means there must be 3 cultists and 1 townie. We need to get a cultist today. I'm going to claim here so we can get it out of the way and try to get a cultist today. I'm the doctor. I can prevent recruit attempts and kill attempts.
Because you said it was a waste, numb nuts. - Drafter

So fvck you. :) - TV

Use prima facie correctly or not at all. - Noumena
blackhawk1331
Posts: 4,932
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11/27/2011 4:17:37 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
I'm not sure of the roles everyone claimed if they claimed them, so I'm starting a list. Add your role if you claimed it. It may be necessary for a mass claim at this point to catch the recruiter.

01. Drafterman
02. Blackvoid - JOAT
03. M.Torres
04. socialpinko
05. Spritle
06. Blackhawk1331 - Doctor

M.Torres doesn't seem to have contributed much,and hasn't claimed a thing, so I'm going to VTL M.Torres for a role claim and possibly a lynch. Also, he posted nothing DP 1, and nothing of any substance at any other time. BS seemed to overlook this. Clearly, torres is a cultist, probably the recruiter. Whoever else is mafia/town, you have to vote with me here, or cult will win.
Because you said it was a waste, numb nuts. - Drafter

So fvck you. :) - TV

Use prima facie correctly or not at all. - Noumena
blackhawk1331
Posts: 4,932
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11/27/2011 4:20:47 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Just to be clear, I don't actually think there are two mafia left unless cult could recruit them. I know I'm town, and I think there is probably another townie. I think we've got either:
1 mafia
2 town
3 cultists

or

1 mafia
1 mafia recruited
2 town
3 cultists (one being former mafia)

I think the first is the most likely.
Because you said it was a waste, numb nuts. - Drafter

So fvck you. :) - TV

Use prima facie correctly or not at all. - Noumena
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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11/27/2011 6:09:58 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/27/2011 4:17:37 PM, blackhawk1331 wrote:
I'm not sure of the roles everyone claimed if they claimed them, so I'm starting a list. Add your role if you claimed it. It may be necessary for a mass claim at this point to catch the recruiter.

01. Drafterman - vanilla
02. Blackvoid - JOAT
03. M.Torres
04. socialpinko - miller
05. Spritle
06. Blackhawk1331 - Doctor

M.Torres doesn't seem to have contributed much,and hasn't claimed a thing, so I'm going to VTL M.Torres for a role claim and possibly a lynch. Also, he posted nothing DP 1, and nothing of any substance at any other time. BS seemed to overlook this. Clearly, torres is a cultist, probably the recruiter. Whoever else is mafia/town, you have to vote with me here, or cult will win.

My suspicion is on socialpinko, he was subtley behind F16 every day. As far as role claim, I'm vanilla.

VTL spinko
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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11/27/2011 7:22:59 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/27/2011 4:06:32 PM, blackhawk1331 wrote:
This is DP 5. There's clearly a cult. They have 4 recruits plus the recruiter. One is dead. What's up? They should have won. If we are assuming there are two mafia left, then that means there must be 3 cultists and 1 townie. We need to get a cultist today. I'm going to claim here so we can get it out of the way and try to get a cultist today. I'm the doctor. I can prevent recruit attempts and kill attempts.

It's worse than that. If there are 3 cultists, then killing a cultist reduces them to 2, but they'll just recruit during the night, bringing them up to 3, and will have a majority tomorrow. Our only hope is to get the cult leader. Unfortunately, but outing yourself you've made yourself a prime recruit target.
blackhawk1331
Posts: 4,932
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11/27/2011 8:17:53 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/27/2011 7:22:59 PM, drafterman wrote:
At 11/27/2011 4:06:32 PM, blackhawk1331 wrote:
This is DP 5. There's clearly a cult. They have 4 recruits plus the recruiter. One is dead. What's up? They should have won. If we are assuming there are two mafia left, then that means there must be 3 cultists and 1 townie. We need to get a cultist today. I'm going to claim here so we can get it out of the way and try to get a cultist today. I'm the doctor. I can prevent recruit attempts and kill attempts.

It's worse than that. If there are 3 cultists, then killing a cultist reduces them to 2, but they'll just recruit during the night, bringing them up to 3, and will have a majority tomorrow. Our only hope is to get the cult leader. Unfortunately, but outing yourself you've made yourself a prime recruit target.

I'm either gonna cover myself or you. If they get my target, the recruit will fail. I don't think they can recruit mafia since f-16's role specifically said he CAN be recruited. Therefore, they have a very small chance of getting the majority. I'm pretty sure torres is the recruiter. He's done absolutely nothing useful this entire game yet BS wasn't suspicious of him at all. BS is the only dead recruit. There's something going on there. I think spinko's guilty too, but our best bet is with torres. You gotta support me with this. If we split our votes, we won't kill the cult off, and they will win. We lynch torres this DP and spinko next. Then we just need to get the last mafia cause the cult will be done. The last mafia is most likely squirtle because JOAT is a really dangerous fake claim. BV is probably the other cult member. So here's what needs to happen.

Kill M.Torres this DP - cult leader, stops recruiting; 1 mafia 2 cult 2 town
Kill Squirtle next DP - kills last mafia to stop NKs; 0 mafia, 1 cult, 2 town

Game ends in town win. The mafia can't kill a townie because then they'll lose. We just have to hope the mafia would prefer to see the town win than the cult. It's impossible for the mafia to win at this point.
Because you said it was a waste, numb nuts. - Drafter

So fvck you. :) - TV

Use prima facie correctly or not at all. - Noumena
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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11/27/2011 8:31:39 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/27/2011 8:17:53 PM, blackhawk1331 wrote:
At 11/27/2011 7:22:59 PM, drafterman wrote:
At 11/27/2011 4:06:32 PM, blackhawk1331 wrote:
This is DP 5. There's clearly a cult. They have 4 recruits plus the recruiter. One is dead. What's up? They should have won. If we are assuming there are two mafia left, then that means there must be 3 cultists and 1 townie. We need to get a cultist today. I'm going to claim here so we can get it out of the way and try to get a cultist today. I'm the doctor. I can prevent recruit attempts and kill attempts.

It's worse than that. If there are 3 cultists, then killing a cultist reduces them to 2, but they'll just recruit during the night, bringing them up to 3, and will have a majority tomorrow. Our only hope is to get the cult leader. Unfortunately, but outing yourself you've made yourself a prime recruit target.

I'm either gonna cover myself or you. If they get my target, the recruit will fail. I don't think they can recruit mafia since f-16's role specifically said he CAN be recruited. Therefore, they have a very small chance of getting the majority. I'm pretty sure torres is the recruiter. He's done absolutely nothing useful this entire game yet BS wasn't suspicious of him at all. BS is the only dead recruit. There's something going on there. I think spinko's guilty too, but our best bet is with torres. You gotta support me with this. If we split our votes, we won't kill the cult off, and they will win. We lynch torres this DP and spinko next. Then we just need to get the last mafia cause the cult will be done. The last mafia is most likely squirtle because JOAT is a really dangerous fake claim. BV is probably the other cult member. So here's what needs to happen.

Kill M.Torres this DP - cult leader, stops recruiting; 1 mafia 2 cult 2 town
Kill Squirtle next DP - kills last mafia to stop NKs; 0 mafia, 1 cult, 2 town

Game ends in town win. The mafia can't kill a townie because then they'll lose. We just have to hope the mafia would prefer to see the town win than the cult. It's impossible for the mafia to win at this point.

Here is what I have:
DP1
No Lynch

NP1
Andro - town

DP1
LDF - mafia

NP2
Lord Knuckle - town
Note: LK killed by townie, so no mafia kill?

DP3
No Lynch

NP3
TV - town
lovelife - mafia

DP4
PartamRuhem - town
Bluesteel - town/cult

NP4
Medic - town
F16 - mafia

There were two kills both NP3 and NP4, so vig and mafia still left? I guess it depends on whether or not Cultists retain their abilities after being recruited (can go either way).

VIG, if you are still town, please direct your kill to someone other than blackhawk or me

Other than that, I'm not sure what to make of these numbers, so I guess your plan is as good as any.

Unvote. VTL Torres

Some variations kill all the cultists if the Cult Leader dies, so I guess it's worth a shot. As far as who to protect, I didn't realize you could protect yourself. Usually Doctor's can't. I wouldn't complain if you protected me, though :)
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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11/27/2011 8:39:02 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/27/2011 4:22:48 PM, Danielle wrote:
By the way, this will be a 24 hour day phase.

It will end tomorrow (Monday) at 5:15 pm EST.

Danielle

What are the rules regarding lynches for Day Phases ended due to time, no lynch or plurality?
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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11/27/2011 8:48:09 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/27/2011 8:45:55 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
Guys please dont lynch anyone til I get off work in a couple hours. I got sone good stuff last night.

Come on, man. I'll be dead asleep in 2 hours. I'm keeping my vote where it is, black can unvote if he wants.
tvellalott
Posts: 10,864
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11/27/2011 8:48:41 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/27/2011 8:45:55 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
I got sone good stuff last night.

WELL ROLL THAT SH!T UP HOMIE!
Oh, that's right I'm dead.
*walks slowly away backwards*
"Caitlyn Jenner is an incredibly brave and stunningly beautiful woman."

Muh threads
Using mafia tactics in real-life: http://www.debate.org...
6 years of DDO: http://www.debate.org...
blackhawk1331
Posts: 4,932
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11/27/2011 8:54:18 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/27/2011 8:31:39 PM, drafterman wrote:
At 11/27/2011 8:17:53 PM, blackhawk1331 wrote:
At 11/27/2011 7:22:59 PM, drafterman wrote:
At 11/27/2011 4:06:32 PM, blackhawk1331 wrote:
This is DP 5. There's clearly a cult. They have 4 recruits plus the recruiter. One is dead. What's up? They should have won. If we are assuming there are two mafia left, then that means there must be 3 cultists and 1 townie. We need to get a cultist today. I'm going to claim here so we can get it out of the way and try to get a cultist today. I'm the doctor. I can prevent recruit attempts and kill attempts.

It's worse than that. If there are 3 cultists, then killing a cultist reduces them to 2, but they'll just recruit during the night, bringing them up to 3, and will have a majority tomorrow. Our only hope is to get the cult leader. Unfortunately, but outing yourself you've made yourself a prime recruit target.

I'm either gonna cover myself or you. If they get my target, the recruit will fail. I don't think they can recruit mafia since f-16's role specifically said he CAN be recruited. Therefore, they have a very small chance of getting the majority. I'm pretty sure torres is the recruiter. He's done absolutely nothing useful this entire game yet BS wasn't suspicious of him at all. BS is the only dead recruit. There's something going on there. I think spinko's guilty too, but our best bet is with torres. You gotta support me with this. If we split our votes, we won't kill the cult off, and they will win. We lynch torres this DP and spinko next. Then we just need to get the last mafia cause the cult will be done. The last mafia is most likely squirtle because JOAT is a really dangerous fake claim. BV is probably the other cult member. So here's what needs to happen.

Kill M.Torres this DP - cult leader, stops recruiting; 1 mafia 2 cult 2 town
Kill Squirtle next DP - kills last mafia to stop NKs; 0 mafia, 1 cult, 2 town

Game ends in town win. The mafia can't kill a townie because then they'll lose. We just have to hope the mafia would prefer to see the town win than the cult. It's impossible for the mafia to win at this point.

Here is what I have:
DP1
No Lynch

NP1
Andro - town

DP1
LDF - mafia

NP2
Lord Knuckle - town
Note: LK killed by townie, so no mafia kill?

DP3
No Lynch

NP3
TV - town
lovelife - mafia

DP4
PartamRuhem - town
Bluesteel - town/cult

NP4
Medic - town
F16 - mafia

There were two kills both NP3 and NP4, so vig and mafia still left? I guess it depends on whether or not Cultists retain their abilities after being recruited (can go either way).

VIG, if you are still town, please direct your kill to someone other than blackhawk or me

Other than that, I'm not sure what to make of these numbers, so I guess your plan is as good as any.

Unvote. VTL Torres

Some variations kill all the cultists if the Cult Leader dies, so I guess it's worth a shot. As far as who to protect, I didn't realize you could protect yourself. Usually Doctor's can't. I wouldn't complain if you protected me, though :)

Look at the op. Probably a mafia recruit. It looks like f-16 traded himself for someone that we wouldn't lynch when his "guilty" actually turned out to be innocent. Spritle hasn't had any suspicion on him so far. Spinko did and was a prime recruit target from the begining. Torres is recruiter.
Because you said it was a waste, numb nuts. - Drafter

So fvck you. :) - TV

Use prima facie correctly or not at all. - Noumena
Spritle
Posts: 556
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11/28/2011 12:31:17 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/27/2011 8:17:53 PM, blackhawk1331 wrote:
At 11/27/2011 7:22:59 PM, drafterman wrote:
At 11/27/2011 4:06:32 PM, blackhawk1331 wrote:
This is DP 5. There's clearly a cult. They have 4 recruits plus the recruiter. One is dead. What's up? They should have won. If we are assuming there are two mafia left, then that means there must be 3 cultists and 1 townie. We need to get a cultist today. I'm going to claim here so we can get it out of the way and try to get a cultist today. I'm the doctor. I can prevent recruit attempts and kill attempts.

It's worse than that. If there are 3 cultists, then killing a cultist reduces them to 2, but they'll just recruit during the night, bringing them up to 3, and will have a majority tomorrow. Our only hope is to get the cult leader. Unfortunately, but outing yourself you've made yourself a prime recruit target.

I'm either gonna cover myself or you. If they get my target, the recruit will fail. I don't think they can recruit mafia since f-16's role specifically said he CAN be recruited. Therefore, they have a very small chance of getting the majority. I'm pretty sure torres is the recruiter. He's done absolutely nothing useful this entire game yet BS wasn't suspicious of him at all. BS is the only dead recruit. There's something going on there. I think spinko's guilty too, but our best bet is with torres. You gotta support me with this. If we split our votes, we won't kill the cult off, and they will win. We lynch torres this DP and spinko next. Then we just need to get the last mafia cause the cult will be done. The last mafia is most likely squirtle because JOAT is a really dangerous fake claim. BV is probably the other cult member. So here's what needs to happen.

Kill M.Torres this DP - cult leader, stops recruiting; 1 mafia 2 cult 2 town
Kill Squirtle next DP - kills last mafia to stop NKs; 0 mafia, 1 cult, 2 town

Game ends in town win. The mafia can't kill a townie because then they'll lose. We just have to hope the mafia would prefer to see the town win than the cult. It's impossible for the mafia to win at this point.

Whoa whoa whoa. I'm not mafia. I'm a judge. Each NP I get to give a verdict on a person. That person's number is randomly generated so every night it is a random person. I killed the beloved princess, and I also killed Lovelife, and F-16. TWO Mafia. So I am definitely not mafia.
drafterman
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11/28/2011 7:31:26 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/28/2011 12:31:17 AM, Spritle wrote:
At 11/27/2011 8:17:53 PM, blackhawk1331 wrote:
At 11/27/2011 7:22:59 PM, drafterman wrote:
At 11/27/2011 4:06:32 PM, blackhawk1331 wrote:
This is DP 5. There's clearly a cult. They have 4 recruits plus the recruiter. One is dead. What's up? They should have won. If we are assuming there are two mafia left, then that means there must be 3 cultists and 1 townie. We need to get a cultist today. I'm going to claim here so we can get it out of the way and try to get a cultist today. I'm the doctor. I can prevent recruit attempts and kill attempts.

It's worse than that. If there are 3 cultists, then killing a cultist reduces them to 2, but they'll just recruit during the night, bringing them up to 3, and will have a majority tomorrow. Our only hope is to get the cult leader. Unfortunately, but outing yourself you've made yourself a prime recruit target.

I'm either gonna cover myself or you. If they get my target, the recruit will fail. I don't think they can recruit mafia since f-16's role specifically said he CAN be recruited. Therefore, they have a very small chance of getting the majority. I'm pretty sure torres is the recruiter. He's done absolutely nothing useful this entire game yet BS wasn't suspicious of him at all. BS is the only dead recruit. There's something going on there. I think spinko's guilty too, but our best bet is with torres. You gotta support me with this. If we split our votes, we won't kill the cult off, and they will win. We lynch torres this DP and spinko next. Then we just need to get the last mafia cause the cult will be done. The last mafia is most likely squirtle because JOAT is a really dangerous fake claim. BV is probably the other cult member. So here's what needs to happen.

Kill M.Torres this DP - cult leader, stops recruiting; 1 mafia 2 cult 2 town
Kill Squirtle next DP - kills last mafia to stop NKs; 0 mafia, 1 cult, 2 town

Game ends in town win. The mafia can't kill a townie because then they'll lose. We just have to hope the mafia would prefer to see the town win than the cult. It's impossible for the mafia to win at this point.

Whoa whoa whoa. I'm not mafia. I'm a judge. Each NP I get to give a verdict on a person. That person's number is randomly generated so every night it is a random person. I killed the beloved princess, and I also killed Lovelife, and F-16. TWO Mafia. So I am definitely not mafia.

What would confirm you is the killing of LordKnuckle, not the killing of the two mafia (being random). We lost a day phase, which confirms that a townie killed LordKnuckle. So if that's you, then you're town, unless you've been recruited since then, and unless someone else counter claims your kill.

In either case, you're a low priority; we need to get the Cult Leader today. I have a feeling we are in a lynch or lose situation. So where do you think we should put our vote, o' Judge?
socialpinko
Posts: 10,458
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11/28/2011 8:14:16 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/27/2011 6:09:58 PM, drafterman wrote:
My suspicion is on socialpinko, he was subtley behind F16 every day. As far as role claim, I'm vanilla.

VTL spinko

Remember that I claimed miller on Dp1 and have since not been counterclaimed. Dp1 always ends in a no lynch so there would be no reason for a mafioso to fake claim that early especially with such a common role. I think you're a little more suspicious with the vanilla claim on Dp5.
: At 9/29/2014 10:55:59 AM, imabench wrote:
: : At 9/29/2014 9:43:46 AM, kbub wrote:
: :
: : DDO should discredit support of sexual violence at any time and in every way.
:
: I disagree.
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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11/28/2011 8:20:59 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/28/2011 8:14:16 AM, socialpinko wrote:
At 11/27/2011 6:09:58 PM, drafterman wrote:
My suspicion is on socialpinko, he was subtley behind F16 every day. As far as role claim, I'm vanilla.

VTL spinko

Remember that I claimed miller on Dp1 and have since not been counterclaimed. Dp1 always ends in a no lynch so there would be no reason for a mafioso to fake claim that early especially with such a common role.

Fair enough.

I think you're a little more suspicious with the vanilla claim on Dp5.

Mind explaining that reasoning? I was under the impression that a vanilla shouldn't role claim early on the hopes that they draw the Night Kill. It doesn't matter now as we're in kind of a "all cards on the table" situation.
socialpinko
Posts: 10,458
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11/28/2011 8:25:12 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/28/2011 8:20:59 AM, drafterman wrote:
At 11/28/2011 8:14:16 AM, socialpinko wrote:
Remember that I claimed miller on Dp1 and have since not been counterclaimed. Dp1 always ends in a no lynch so there would be no reason for a mafioso to fake claim that early especially with such a common role.

Fair enough.

I think you're a little more suspicious with the vanilla claim on Dp5.

Mind explaining that reasoning? I was under the impression that a vanilla shouldn't role claim early on the hopes that they draw the Night Kill. It doesn't matter now as we're in kind of a "all cards on the table" situation.

That could be the case, though the behavior mirrors a mafioso trying to wait and claim last. Also vanilla claims are usually met with some sort of suspicion since they're simply the town equivalent of a goon.
: At 9/29/2014 10:55:59 AM, imabench wrote:
: : At 9/29/2014 9:43:46 AM, kbub wrote:
: :
: : DDO should discredit support of sexual violence at any time and in every way.
:
: I disagree.
socialpinko
Posts: 10,458
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11/28/2011 8:30:33 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
01. Drafterman
02. Blackvoid - JOAT
03. M.Torres
04. socialpinko - miller
05. Spritle
06. Blackhawk1331 - Doctor
: At 9/29/2014 10:55:59 AM, imabench wrote:
: : At 9/29/2014 9:43:46 AM, kbub wrote:
: :
: : DDO should discredit support of sexual violence at any time and in every way.
:
: I disagree.
socialpinko
Posts: 10,458
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11/28/2011 8:32:44 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
01. Drafterman - vanilla
02. Blackvoid - JOAT
03. M.Torres
04. socialpinko - miller
05. Spritle
06. Blackhawk1331 - Doctor
: At 9/29/2014 10:55:59 AM, imabench wrote:
: : At 9/29/2014 9:43:46 AM, kbub wrote:
: :
: : DDO should discredit support of sexual violence at any time and in every way.
:
: I disagree.
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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11/28/2011 8:32:54 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/28/2011 8:25:12 AM, socialpinko wrote:
At 11/28/2011 8:20:59 AM, drafterman wrote:
At 11/28/2011 8:14:16 AM, socialpinko wrote:
Remember that I claimed miller on Dp1 and have since not been counterclaimed. Dp1 always ends in a no lynch so there would be no reason for a mafioso to fake claim that early especially with such a common role.

Fair enough.

I think you're a little more suspicious with the vanilla claim on Dp5.

Mind explaining that reasoning? I was under the impression that a vanilla shouldn't role claim early on the hopes that they draw the Night Kill. It doesn't matter now as we're in kind of a "all cards on the table" situation.

That could be the case, though the behavior mirrors a mafioso trying to wait and claim last. Also vanilla claims are usually met with some sort of suspicion since they're simply the town equivalent of a goon.

I can't control that no one pressured me for a claim earlier. But I'm still having trouble with the reasoning here:

If I'm pressured for a claim early, and reveal, then that's bad because I reveal myself as a vanilla and the mafia avoids me, focusing on other people with power roles.

If I don't reveal my role until later, than that's still bad because then I look like a mafia trying to breeze through the game.

Ok, well I guess being vanilla is just a sucky draw then. However, if the charge here being levied against me is that I've just coasted through the game, laying low, then I think blackhawk makes a better case against Torres, who is normally very active (which is why I switched my own vote).

So, we can go back and forth about me, but if there is nothing else beyond A) the inherent suspiciousness of being vanilla and B) I wasn't pressured for a claim earlier in the game, then I'm not sure what we gain here.

If you want to vote for me, sure, as a vanilla I have nothing to offer by way of night actions in my defense. However, I will note that while a mislynch runs the risk of dooming us, a no lynch can only work in favor of scum parties, and splitting the vote will sure to cause a no lynch, given that this day phase has a dead line (unless we are operating under plurality rules).
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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11/28/2011 8:33:31 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/28/2011 8:32:44 AM, socialpinko wrote:
01. Drafterman - vanilla
02. Blackvoid - JOAT
03. M.Torres
04. socialpinko - miller
05. Spritle - Judge (random night kill)
06. Blackhawk1331 - Doctor
socialpinko
Posts: 10,458
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11/28/2011 8:35:20 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
VOTE COUNT

M.Torres (blackhawk, drafterman) -- 2/4 votes
: At 9/29/2014 10:55:59 AM, imabench wrote:
: : At 9/29/2014 9:43:46 AM, kbub wrote:
: :
: : DDO should discredit support of sexual violence at any time and in every way.
:
: I disagree.
M.Torres
Posts: 3,626
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11/28/2011 9:35:44 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
FINALLY.

Sorry, I've been having technical issues with logging in. I am trying to resolve this with Juggle, but that is the reason for my inactivity (coupled with a family weekend).

Going back over everything....
: At 11/28/2011 1:28:24 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
: M. Torres said it, so it must be right.

I'm an Apatheistic Ignostic. ... problem? ;D

I believe in the heart of the cards. .:DDO Duelist:.
M.Torres
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11/28/2011 9:42:01 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/27/2011 4:06:32 PM, blackhawk1331 wrote:
This is DP 5. There's clearly a cult. They have 4 recruits plus the recruiter.

How can we know exactly the amount of recruits? If you are can prevent recruits, how do you know all of them went through? How we do know the recruiter can recruit EVERY night? Once a night seems really fast to me.

One is dead. What's up? They should have won.

I'm gonna assume maybe they don't have as many recruits as we think then, or maybe not all the recruits went through.

If we are assuming there are two mafia left, then that means there must be 3 cultists and 1 townie. We need to get a cultist today. I'm going to claim here so we can get it out of the way and try to get a cultist today. I'm the doctor. I can prevent recruit attempts and kill attempts.
: At 11/28/2011 1:28:24 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
: M. Torres said it, so it must be right.

I'm an Apatheistic Ignostic. ... problem? ;D

I believe in the heart of the cards. .:DDO Duelist:.
drafterman
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11/28/2011 9:54:02 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
Ok. I've crunched some numbers. I think the 1-2-3 (C-T-M) is the worst case scenario. As Torres notes, we really don't have reliable data as far as how many cult members there may be. I imagine that if the mafia and cult targeted the same person, then that person died without being recruited and the cult did not get a recruit that night. Also, since blackhawk prevents recruitment, that could have slowed their numbers, and they may be even/odd or x-shot.

In any event, I went with the worst case scenario above, and ran through 93 scenarios, based on who the town lynches (another townie, cult leader, cultist, mafia), who the mafia kills (townie, cult leader, cultist), and who the cult recruits (townie mafia). I did not factor in blackhawk's protection ability, nor did I factor in Spritle's alleged random kill.

The outlook is grim. Out of those 93 scenarios, only 7 result in a town win. All of those win scenarios require that either A) a cultist and the cult leader or B) two cultists die between now and the next day phase, which requires assistance (either purposeful or inadvertant) from the mafia. At least one scenario depends on the cult leader not being able to recruit in the same night it dies.

Needless to say, most of the scenarios work out in favor of the cult, followed by the mafia, with a few draws thrown in (If a townie and a cultist are the last alive). We are not necessarily in a lynch-or-lose scenario, but we are definitely in a mislynch-or-lose scenario.

Torres, I think now would be a good time to claim.
drafterman
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11/28/2011 10:35:52 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/28/2011 9:54:02 AM, drafterman wrote:
Ok. I've crunched some numbers. I think the 1-2-3 (C-T-M) is the worst case scenario. As Torres notes, we really don't have reliable data as far as how many cult members there may be. I imagine that if the mafia and cult targeted the same person, then that person died without being recruited and the cult did not get a recruit that night. Also, since blackhawk prevents recruitment, that could have slowed their numbers, and they may be even/odd or x-shot.

In any event, I went with the worst case scenario above, and ran through 93 scenarios, based on who the town lynches (another townie, cult leader, cultist, mafia), who the mafia kills (townie, cult leader, cultist), and who the cult recruits (townie mafia). I did not factor in blackhawk's protection ability, nor did I factor in Spritle's alleged random kill.

The outlook is grim. Out of those 93 scenarios, only 7 result in a town win. All of those win scenarios require that either A) a cultist and the cult leader or B) two cultists die between now and the next day phase, which requires assistance (either purposeful or inadvertant) from the mafia. At least one scenario depends on the cult leader not being able to recruit in the same night it dies.

Needless to say, most of the scenarios work out in favor of the cult, followed by the mafia, with a few draws thrown in (If a townie and a cultist are the last alive). We are not necessarily in a lynch-or-lose scenario, but we are definitely in a mislynch-or-lose scenario.

Torres, I think now would be a good time to claim.

Ok, and in case there is any mafia listening. Only 26 of those scenarios result in a mafia win. 23 of which require you to NOT kill a townie during this night phase.

Yes, you can still kill a townie and win but only A) if we lynch the cult leader this turn and B) lynch a townie or a cultist in DP6.

If you want to press your luck with the cultists, be my guest. Otherwise, Food for thought.
BlackVoid
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11/28/2011 11:00:13 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
Sorry for not getting on like I planned to last night. I got distracted dealing with wierdman's tournament.

Anyway, using my 3rd JOAT power last night I used a double LD on Drafterman and Blackhawk. Drafterman because there's like no suspicion on him and Blackhawk because he's just now started posting actively. I LD both of theirt "I win with the town" statements and found out that 1 is false. So one mafia is among them.

We need role claims. M first inclination is drafterman as mafia since BH's doc claim seems legit, but you never know. Drafterman we need a full claim.