Total Posts:10|Showing Posts:1-10
Jump to topic:

Mafia theory discussion

F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/13/2012 1:26:40 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I found this interesting article from mafiascum where they advocate cops investigating not the most guilty looking player but the most competent players in the game. I'd like to hear opinions on whether such a strategy is a good fit for DDO.

http://mafiascum.net...

I copy-pasted the article here for easy viewing:

Article

Cops need to use their investigations better. Far too many cops just investigate one of the more scummy players in the game. This is a waste of that power, because the player's likely to be lynched, anyway. If they were scum, you wasted your investigation just to confirm your suspicions. If they are town, you wasted your investigation on someone who is about to be lynched, and either 1: have to let them die, or 2: claim to save them.

"So what do you expect us to do, investigate our strongest town reads? :rolleyes:" Not quite, but close. It's not investigating null players, either, although that tends to work fairly well. Basically, all three strategies DO work, just in different ways, yet I feel generalizing any of the three to be the best option would be a bad idea.

No, what needs to happen is different from that. Because, there's one key fact you have to remember about when you investigate a player:

You're not just investigating a player to see their alignment. Your investigation determines their influence in the future of the game, what part they will play. If you hit scum, their part is "dead, auto-lynched". (Well, presumably, anyway.) When you get innocent, however, you've cemented them as being a town player, and the town has to live with that. Said town player will be forever pro-town, barring special circumstances (strong reason to suspect godfather, strong reason to believe in a not-sane cop, etc., which are generally appearing less and less often).

And that means they'll forever hold that special spot, and will have an influence over the town that will never disappear. If you, say, investigate a Village Idiot, find they're innocent, and they survive to lylo...would you want them to be the hammering vote? I don't know about you, but I'd much prefer that if I were fortunate enough to have a confirmed town player alive in lylo, they actually be competent.

An investigation is not just something to use in order to find alignment. It's a tool to determine who the town leaders will be. Who do towns listen to? I could be wrong, but in order, I believe it generally is "Roles, Confirmed Innocents, Pro-Town-Looking-Players". Ideally, anyway. If your Confirmed Innocent is not a strong player, they lose the potential to lead that a better player would be able to exploit.

You're not looking for innocent or guilty when you're a cop. You're looking at the future of the town. You don't want someone who is easily manipulated and/or has a difficult time getting reads to be confirmed town. They have a very high chance of blowing it, of mislynching when the time comes for them to step up and give their insight as confirmed town. (Or, worse, they don't step up at all and remain weak, effectively wasting their potential.)

Who you investigate should not be someone who you necessarily think is scum. It shouldn't be someone you necessarily think is town, either.

Who you should investigate is who you think should get the job done, when it comes to a worst-case scenario. Where you are dead and have no further investigations, where you got an innocent instead of the guilty most cops hope for. (In truth, getting an innocent can be just--if not potentially more helpful--than a guilty, but there are very few who acknowledge this.) Would you want your innocents to be VIs, or good players who make sense, get the town to follow them naturally, keep open minds, analyze the situation carefully, etc.?

This does indeed mean that players who look town by this logic would get investigated more often, but do keep in mind other factors. -How likely are they to die before you reveal your results? If it's too high, don't do it. -How much difference would investigating them make to their play? If it greatly improves, it's definitely worth it, if it doesn't (or even gets worse due to being confirmed and exploiting the natural benefits thereof negatively--stuff like lurking, putting no effort into the game, etc.), then you need to look elsewhere.

Basic summary is that you don't want to necessarily look at the most scummy, or most town, or most neutral, player. Best-case scenario, you catch scum with those. Worst-case scenario, though, and your choice becomes the person who will define the future of the game, who--as long as they live--will be in that position to direct the town, and you want them to direct the town in the correct way, for them to nail the scum, even if you yourself could not.

"Cops should investigate competent players who are not obviously Town or obviously scum.
Lickdafoot
Posts: 5,599
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/13/2012 1:33:06 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
We have a godfather in almost every DDO mafia so the confirming aspect isn't as solid as that article makes it out to be.
WAKE UP AND READ THIS: http://www.debate.org...
BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/13/2012 1:33:54 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/13/2012 1:33:06 PM, Lickdafoot wrote:
We have a godfather in almost every DDO mafia so the confirming aspect isn't as solid as that article makes it out to be.

This, and that flavored cops have gotten pretty common recently.
Lickdafoot
Posts: 5,599
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/13/2012 1:34:07 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/13/2012 1:33:06 PM, Lickdafoot wrote:
We have a godfather in almost every DDO mafia so the confirming aspect isn't as solid as that article makes it out to be.

I still generally agree with the article though for my own reasons.
WAKE UP AND READ THIS: http://www.debate.org...
Lickdafoot
Posts: 5,599
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/13/2012 1:38:51 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/13/2012 1:34:25 PM, CAPLlock wrote:
What happens when a insane/naive cop ops a godfather?

insane would get guilty, naive would get innocent.

I'd like to see more games with no godfather. We need to spice the mafia roles up a bit. there are plenty of good mafia roles and really, how often is it that the cop checks the godfather before he dies?
WAKE UP AND READ THIS: http://www.debate.org...
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/13/2012 1:43:15 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/13/2012 1:38:51 PM, Lickdafoot wrote:
At 1/13/2012 1:34:25 PM, CAPLlock wrote:
What happens when a insane/naive cop ops a godfather?

insane would get guilty, naive would get innocent.

I'd like to see more games with no godfather. We need to spice the mafia roles up a bit. there are plenty of good mafia roles and really, how often is it that the cop checks the godfather before he dies?

I think Godfather in most games is a pretty much a useless role and only used for carrying out the mafia night kills. If we beef it up with more power, it shouldn't be that bad. Mafias need to be more powerful. It seems impossible recently to lose games as town despite how well the mafia plays (Quentin Tarantino and CACIT games spring to mind). It shouldn't be so easy to win just because the mafia roles are useless and the townie roles are superpowerful.

I'd say if the godfather is replaced with a ninja that can't be tracked or watched, it might bring about better balance.
bluesteel
Posts: 12,301
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/13/2012 7:11:19 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
@F-16

Certain mods make the game way too pro-town. Guess that trend is continuing. We've finally seen a few games that were too pro mafia (danielle's large game and tv's first HvV).

I don't think cop should investigate the "best" players first. For one, it means danielle and I just won't play anymore unless the mods make us godfather if we are mafia. It's seriously annoying. With the new round of n00bs, I started getting targeted first again (royal killing me in the Eragon game). Yay for drafter investigating me in tv's game. I guess if all you care about is winning one game, then yeah, it may be an okay strategy, but it's no fun for us if we're always such huge targets.

It's also dumb because when someone is acting "scummy" that only means they are mafia 50% of the time. Since the games here are drawn out, unlike quicker games where scummy behavior like lurking is OBVIOUS, a lot of reads are wrong. Cop can prevent killing important roles that have good reasons for being scummy. Preventing mislynches is almost important sometimes as finding scum. Confirming the best players is useless - you guys know by now to take any analysis with a grain of salt.
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
Logic_on_rails
Posts: 2,445
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/14/2012 7:33:39 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Good to be back.

The article makes a good point that you don't want idiots being the leading player due to being confirmed. This is precisely why people like killing the best players - eventually the town stops thinking correctly.

However, cops NOT investigating suspected guilty players has a serious fault. Put simply, people can be convinced by smooth talking Mafia into believing a scummy acting player is actually town. People often want a strong reason to lynch, not a hunch which is then countered by persuasive Mafia words. If cops don't investigate likely guilty players then there's no good basis for a lynch and mislynches become frequent.

The article has some good points, but cops need to confirm people's guilt.
"Tis not in mortals to command success
But we"ll do more, Sempronius, we"ll deserve it