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Pressuring Noobs Theory

F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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1/25/2012 4:59:26 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
The general consensus at DDO while playing mafia seems to be to pressure noobs first. The players pressuring obviously give reasoning such as "it will likely benefit the town" or "they need guidance" or "they will slip up."

I have been looking over past and current games to find out who was pressured and the general consensus on why they were pressured. Once I do that, I will formulate a theory on the **real** reasons why noobs are pressured first. I am not entirely opposed to pressuring noobs and looking back, I actually somewhat agree with Danielle's theory. The reasoning is that I probably won't be pressured first. This I believe is the true reason why experienced players so readily jump on the theory and use it every game. They know (or they think) that they won't be pressured back.

Players who are generally not popular (like badger and greyparrot) also seem to be pressured first as the pressurer seems to believe that they won't be pressured in response.

For instance, if X pressures A for a random reason, X might be asked for a claim next. However, if X pressures N because N is a noob, X likely will escape pressure and pressure will be directed onto another noob.

Pressuring noobs therefore seems to be a good way for experienced players to guarantee themselves a way to avoid being pressured first.
Stephen_Hawkins
Posts: 5,316
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1/25/2012 5:17:57 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Except now we know that when X uses theory PNT, pressure X for attempting theory PNT to escape pressure.
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Lickdafoot
Posts: 5,599
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1/25/2012 5:25:59 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
eh i guess that makes sense. It also has to do with the fact that I don't like seeing good townies making a target for themselves on the first night, moreso than they already are.
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F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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1/25/2012 5:38:56 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Statistics:
Game - pressured first/second/third - person who started/led pressure - reasoning

The ones in bold were the ONLY successful pressuring of experienced players BY NOOBS.

I'll start with my first game and go from there. Beginner games excluded.

Knowledge Mafia - Bluesteel - SocialPinko - Trickyness
Knowledge Mafia - SocialPinko - Blackhawk - suspicious
Knowledge Mafia - F-16 - Danielle - Noob theory

Assasin's Creed - RockyLightning - Medic - Never played with him before
Assasin's Creed - MIG - Lickdafoot - "Fine target for pressure"

Drugged Out - LN074246 - Danielle - Noob theory
Drugged Out - Blackhawk - Headphone - for claiming Miller, wtf?
Drugged Out - Bluesteel - Feverish - third party claim

Pixar vs Dreamworks - Korashk - SocialPinko - Never played before
Pixar vs Dreamworks - SocialPinko - Danielle - Disagreed with reason

Dexter Mafia - Drafterman - SocialPinko - Noob theory
Dexter Mafia - SocialPinko - F-16 - Starting pressure

Star Trek mafia - drafterman - TV - Noob theory
Star Trek mafia - TV - drafterman - Your turn

Anarchist Mafia - Lovelife - Bluesteel - "Welcome back"
Anarchist Mafia - Bluesteel - F-16 - "Welcome back" not good reasoning
Anarchist Mafia - F-16 - TV - Pissed off that I pressured an experienced player

Classic Mafia - Partam - Bluesteel - 15th player

HvV Movies - Truth - Torres - No reason/Noob

Miscellaneous - F-16 - HPG/Bluesteel - First on list/Stalling
Miscellaneous - Bluesteel - F-16 - Experienced player/Stalling
Miscellaneous - HomoSacer - SocialPinko - Noob

Interwebz - Tyler - TV - Noob theory
Interwebz - Badger - Danielle - "Retard"
Interwebz - Viper - Danielle - Noob online

QT films - CapLlock - Royal - No reason
QT films - Royal - Tyler/TV - No reason/Lying/Confusion over role

Inheritance - Caveat - BlackVoid - Noob theory
Inheritance - F-16 - drafterman - For Claiming, wtf??

CACIT Mafia - WJMElements - LordKnuckle - RNG
CACIT Mafia - LordKnuckle - F-16 - First post

Monk Mafia - Medic - LordKnuckle - RNG
Monk Mafia - Xerge - Lickdafoot - Noob theory

HeroesvVillains - Lovelife - Bluesteel - Directing pressure
HeroesvVillains - Bluesteel - Vmpire - No reason

Starcraft - UnStupendousMan - Royal - No reason
Starcraft - Andromeda_Z - Medic - Claimed survivor

Death Note - Marcuscato - F-16 - Inactivity

Aerial Warfare - Drafterman - LordKnuckle - RNG
Aerial Warfare - Vmpire - Socialpinko - Noob theory
vmpire321
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1/25/2012 5:41:51 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/25/2012 5:38:56 PM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
Statistics:
Game - pressured first/second/third - person who started/led pressure - reasoning

The ones in bold were the ONLY successful pressuring of experienced players BY NOOBS.

I'll start with my first game and go from there. Beginner games excluded.

Knowledge Mafia - Bluesteel - SocialPinko - Trickyness
Knowledge Mafia - SocialPinko - Blackhawk - suspicious
Knowledge Mafia - F-16 - Danielle - Noob theory

Assasin's Creed - RockyLightning - Medic - Never played with him before
Assasin's Creed - MIG - Lickdafoot - "Fine target for pressure"

Drugged Out - LN074246 - Danielle - Noob theory
Drugged Out - Blackhawk - Headphone - for claiming Miller, wtf?
Drugged Out - Bluesteel - Feverish - third party claim

Pixar vs Dreamworks - Korashk - SocialPinko - Never played before
Pixar vs Dreamworks - SocialPinko - Danielle - Disagreed with reason

Dexter Mafia - Drafterman - SocialPinko - Noob theory
Dexter Mafia - SocialPinko - F-16 - Starting pressure

Star Trek mafia - drafterman - TV - Noob theory
Star Trek mafia - TV - drafterman - Your turn

Anarchist Mafia - Lovelife - Bluesteel - "Welcome back"
Anarchist Mafia - Bluesteel - F-16 - "Welcome back" not good reasoning
Anarchist Mafia - F-16 - TV - Pissed off that I pressured an experienced player

Classic Mafia - Partam - Bluesteel - 15th player

HvV Movies - Truth - Torres - No reason/Noob

Miscellaneous - F-16 - HPG/Bluesteel - First on list/Stalling
Miscellaneous - Bluesteel - F-16 - Experienced player/Stalling
Miscellaneous - HomoSacer - SocialPinko - Noob

Interwebz - Tyler - TV - Noob theory
Interwebz - Badger - Danielle - "Retard"
Interwebz - Viper - Danielle - Noob online

QT films - CapLlock - Royal - No reason
QT films - Royal - Tyler/TV - No reason/Lying/Confusion over role

Inheritance - Caveat - BlackVoid - Noob theory
Inheritance - F-16 - drafterman - For Claiming, wtf??

CACIT Mafia - WJMElements - LordKnuckle - RNG
CACIT Mafia - LordKnuckle - F-16 - First post

Monk Mafia - Medic - LordKnuckle - RNG
Monk Mafia - Xerge - Lickdafoot - Noob theory

HeroesvVillains - Lovelife - Bluesteel - Directing pressure
HeroesvVillains - Bluesteel - Vmpire - No reason

Starcraft - UnStupendousMan - Royal - No reason
Starcraft - Andromeda_Z - Medic - Claimed survivor

Death Note - Marcuscato - F-16 - Inactivity

Aerial Warfare - Drafterman - LordKnuckle - RNG
Aerial Warfare - Vmpire - Socialpinko - Noob theory

lol :D!
Lickdafoot
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1/25/2012 5:54:58 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/25/2012 5:38:56 PM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
Statistics:
Game - pressured first/second/third - person who started/led pressure - reasoning

The ones in bold were the ONLY successful pressuring of experienced players BY NOOBS.

I'll start with my first game and go from there. Beginner games excluded.

Knowledge Mafia - Bluesteel - SocialPinko - Trickyness
Knowledge Mafia - SocialPinko - Blackhawk - suspicious
Knowledge Mafia - F-16 - Danielle - Noob theory

Assasin's Creed - RockyLightning - Medic - Never played with him before
Assasin's Creed - MIG - Lickdafoot - "Fine target for pressure"

Drugged Out - LN074246 - Danielle - Noob theory
Drugged Out - Blackhawk - Headphone - for claiming Miller, wtf?
Drugged Out - Bluesteel - Feverish - third party claim

Pixar vs Dreamworks - Korashk - SocialPinko - Never played before
Pixar vs Dreamworks - SocialPinko - Danielle - Disagreed with reason

Dexter Mafia - Drafterman - SocialPinko - Noob theory
Dexter Mafia - SocialPinko - F-16 - Starting pressure

Star Trek mafia - drafterman - TV - Noob theory
Star Trek mafia - TV - drafterman - Your turn

Anarchist Mafia - Lovelife - Bluesteel - "Welcome back"
Anarchist Mafia - Bluesteel - F-16 - "Welcome back" not good reasoning
Anarchist Mafia - F-16 - TV - Pissed off that I pressured an experienced player

Classic Mafia - Partam - Bluesteel - 15th player

HvV Movies - Truth - Torres - No reason/Noob

Miscellaneous - F-16 - HPG/Bluesteel - First on list/Stalling
Miscellaneous - Bluesteel - F-16 - Experienced player/Stalling
Miscellaneous - HomoSacer - SocialPinko - Noob

Interwebz - Tyler - TV - Noob theory
Interwebz - Badger - Danielle - "Retard"
Interwebz - Viper - Danielle - Noob online

QT films - CapLlock - Royal - No reason
QT films - Royal - Tyler/TV - No reason/Lying/Confusion over role

Inheritance - Caveat - BlackVoid - Noob theory
Inheritance - F-16 - drafterman - For Claiming, wtf??

CACIT Mafia - WJMElements - LordKnuckle - RNG
CACIT Mafia - LordKnuckle - F-16 - First post

Monk Mafia - Medic - LordKnuckle - RNG
Monk Mafia - Xerge - Lickdafoot - Noob theory

HeroesvVillains - Lovelife - Bluesteel - Directing pressure
HeroesvVillains - Bluesteel - Vmpire - No reason

Starcraft - UnStupendousMan - Royal - No reason
Starcraft - Andromeda_Z - Medic - Claimed survivor

Death Note - Marcuscato - F-16 - Inactivity

Aerial Warfare - Drafterman - LordKnuckle - RNG
Aerial Warfare - Vmpire - Socialpinko - Noob theory

and what about successful pressure by experienced players to noobs?

I remember in that one beginner game with you and tv in mafia, I pressured some newb (creede?) first, he was totally defensive, I called him out for it, and he was, in fact, mafia. end gloat :P
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F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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1/25/2012 5:56:34 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I believe the primary reason for the lack of success is that newer players have less convincing arguments than experienced players. Experienced players also stick with each other more as evidenced by the fact that every time an experienced player is pressured such as the following unsuccessful pressures, other experienced players jump to their defense relieving pressure and putting it squarely on the noob or the pressurer.

Unsuccessful pressures and defenders

1) Knowledge game (Danielle defends Bluesteel)
2) Anarchist game (TV defends Bluesteel)
3) Miscellaneous game (SocialPinko defends Bluesteel)
4) Aerial warfare (SocialPinko defends Drafterman)
5) Pixar vs Dreamworks (Danielle defends Korashk)
6) Interwebz (Danielle defends TV)
7) QT films mafia (Somebody defends Andro)

I hypothesize the reasoning behind that is to create an atmosphere where noobs are *expected* to be pressured, and anyone that pressures an exprienced player is also *expected* to be pressured.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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1/25/2012 6:00:06 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/25/2012 5:54:58 PM, Lickdafoot wrote:

and what about successful pressure by experienced players to noobs?

That happens almost EVERY time, every game. I can't make a list.

I remember in that one beginner game with you and tv in mafia, I pressured some newb (creede?) first, he was totally defensive, I called him out for it, and he was, in fact, mafia. end gloat :P

Yeah, but you were outnumbered by beginners and mafia (me, TV, Crede) deliberately pressured people who weren't mafia which was too easy seeing as there were no roles. You still played great though catching me despite there being no roles. Why are you so good? o.0
UnStupendousMan
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1/25/2012 6:01:45 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I think that any system that relies on anything other than in-game information is inherently faulty because the majority in every game is town.

Intresting info, BTW.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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1/25/2012 6:03:25 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I am trying to analyze when pressuring experienced players actually works to make some sort of guide for noobs. Off the cuff, I would say that Drafterman was the only player successful at turning pressure in the Star Trek game partly due to skill and partly due to the fact that the only other experienced players (Bluesteel, Lickdafoot) were in the mafia with TV and probably didn't want to defend him for fear of being exposed as in league with him.

Vmpire's pressure worked because it was totally random and I am still trying to figure out why.
Logic_on_rails
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1/25/2012 6:33:13 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Your theory is somewhat correct F-16; experienced players like the challenge of beating other experienced players, so they try and keep them alive out of their own enjoyment. Same with unpopular players who've made poor decisions in the past - certain players don't want them making arbitrary decisions that could ruin hard work. They pre-empt this and act accordingly.

However, look at things from another point of view - what is the ratio of experienced players to new players? There are more experienced players than new players.

And what's this about me not being an experienced Mafia player? I was in Star Trek Mafia... I jest.
"Tis not in mortals to command success
But we"ll do more, Sempronius, we"ll deserve it
medic0506
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1/25/2012 7:01:17 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Simple fact is that if we're going to pressure newbs first, because they tend to screw up, there should be some evidence to support that. Something more than 1 or 2 games. I see the logic, but there is also logic behind killing the most experienced players first. Is that a good and fair thing to do?? I don't think so, so by the same token I don't think it's right to target new players first all the time.

In the game that prompted this discussion, there were 3 votes on Drafter, and that pressure got leapfrogged by the newb theory. I reluctantly went along with it but I disagree with that practice. The exception to that is when there is a reason related to that game to switch pressure away from the original, a result comes out, someone sees something in the dp that's suspicious, etc.
tvellalott
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1/25/2012 7:38:35 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Pressuring newbs for me is simply better than RNG pressure. We want to get the DP over as quickly as possible. It's such a hard thing to analyse, BUT what I definitely agree with is that we (IC players) are going to use a play which will result in us not being pressured first. Newbs don't get been pressured for long...

Consider it 'Cutting your teeth'.

If more Newbs responded with confidence, like drafter man did, the theory would go out the window... But Newbs are easy to get claims out of.
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F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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1/25/2012 7:45:20 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/25/2012 7:38:35 PM, tvellalott wrote:
Pressuring newbs for me is simply better than RNG pressure. We want to get the DP over as quickly as possible. It's such a hard thing to analyse, BUT what I definitely agree with is that we (IC players) are going to use a play which will result in us not being pressured first. Newbs don't get been pressured for long...

Consider it 'Cutting your teeth'.

If more Newbs responded with confidence, like drafter man did, the theory would go out the window... But Newbs are easy to get claims out of.

But that just means going after the "easy" targets right? Experienced players wouldn't be that difficult of targets if other experienced players don't jump to their defense every time.

I've seen this with Bluesteel for instance. The minute he is pressured, a whole bunch of people jump in and say "he is an experienced player, don't pressure him" and go so far as to pressure the player that pressured him.

Not to call out anyone, but the facts show that if you, Danielle and Bluesteel are in the game and one of you is pressured, it is almost certain that the other two would invariably jump in to defend the pressured person rather than add to the pressure.

This happens regardless of if you are acting scummy or not.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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1/25/2012 10:24:33 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/25/2012 5:17:57 PM, Stephen_Hawkins wrote:
Except now we know that when X uses theory PNT, pressure X for attempting theory PNT to escape pressure.

Agreed. But it falls on the noob to pressure them back. If a noob pressures back the experienced player for trying to use the Pressure Noob Theory saying "your turn" or something similar, I would certainly add to that pressure. The problem comes when either
(a) The noob does not pressure them back.
(b) Other experienced players start defending that player for being experienced (hey, you are a noob, your vote is worthless)
Logic_on_rails
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1/26/2012 2:24:44 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
1 additional thing that pressuring new players does is that it gives us a policy, a guide to DP 1. Without a guide whom to pressure becomes a serious issue that unnecessarily drags out DP 1 and creates conflicts which aren't needed. Essentially, until somebody comes up with a superior theory to pressuring new players, we should stick with the current policy (even if it has some flaws) due to having a policy being inherently good.

Like TV said, there is a degree to which players can get out of the 'new player' tag quickly. Drafterman fitted in very swiftly and in his first game was seen as a good player for example.

The biggest issue is, as I said before, the ratio of experienced to new players. When I first graduated the pool of players was smaller and many players were, quite frankly, not that skilled. Therefore it was extremely easy for me to climb the ladder so to speak. In addition, RNGs were more popular then. Now to climb up the ladder is difficult. People are picking on those lowest on the ladder. Even if you are climbing up skill wise others are as well. That's why it's quite difficult to get out of the new player tag.
"Tis not in mortals to command success
But we"ll do more, Sempronius, we"ll deserve it
medic0506
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1/26/2012 5:45:27 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/26/2012 2:24:44 AM, Logic_on_rails wrote:
1 additional thing that pressuring new players does is that it gives us a policy, a guide to DP 1. Without a guide whom to pressure becomes a serious issue that unnecessarily drags out DP 1 and creates conflicts which aren't needed. Essentially, until somebody comes up with a superior theory to pressuring new players, we should stick with the current policy (even if it has some flaws) due to having a policy being inherently good.

Like TV said, there is a degree to which players can get out of the 'new player' tag quickly. Drafterman fitted in very swiftly and in his first game was seen as a good player for example.

The biggest issue is, as I said before, the ratio of experienced to new players. When I first graduated the pool of players was smaller and many players were, quite frankly, not that skilled. Therefore it was extremely easy for me to climb the ladder so to speak. In addition, RNGs were more popular then. Now to climb up the ladder is difficult. People are picking on those lowest on the ladder. Even if you are climbing up skill wise others are as well. That's why it's quite difficult to get out of the new player tag.

This highlights another problem with using this theory. Who qualifies as a newb, and a good player, is subjective. It varies from player to player, and players can begin to deny claiming in lieu of making someone newer claim. If this theory is used, that denial is valid and will work, just as it did in Drafter's case. He was able to avoid claiming and was supported in doing so. If I were one of them that's exactly what I would do, I would refuse to claim. Where is that going to get us. I think it's silly.