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Mafia Win/Loss ratio

F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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5/24/2012 12:51:12 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
I always wanted to calculate win/loss ratios but since Spinko's last thread, I lost track of games. Drafterman made a neat list of mafia games (although for a different purpose), so here is my mafia record since the very first game I played (excluding some beginners (not all), bastard, and anonymous games. I didn't count the ones in which I was replaced (BH's TV shows, Frere Jacques, Ignatious Creek) or the ones where I had no clue what was going on (VK's game with all the Masons and maybe one of USM's games which was all cult).

1) Knowledge mafia - Town - Loss
2) Beginner's 1.3 Mob Wars - Town - Loss
3) Assassins Creed - Mafia - Win
4) Beginner's 2.2 - Town - Win
5) Beginner's 2.3 - Town - Loss
6) Pixar vs Dreamworks - Town - Loss
7) Dexter - Town - Win
8) Star Trek - Mafia recruited - Win
9) Nascar - Town - Loss
10) Illuminati - Mafia - Win
11) Ancap - Town - Win
12) Drugged Out - Cult - Win
13) Classic - Mafia - Win
14) Miscellaneous - Town - Win
15) Interwebz - Survivor - Loss
16) QTarantino - Town - Win
17) C'ACIT - Town - Win
18) Inheritance - Mafia recruited - Loss
19) Monk - Town - Loss
20) Starcraft - Mafia - Win
21) HvV Cartoons - Third party - Loss
22) Death Note - Town - Loss
23) Solar system - Town - Loss
24) FF7 - Town - Loss
25) Batman - Town - Win
26) Gangster's - Cult - Loss
27) Death-in-mystere - Town - Loss
28) DDO mafia players - Town - Loss
29) Brawl - Mafia - Loss
30) Misfits - Town - Win (I'll count it as a town win since I was critical to the win)
31) Monetary Mafia - Mafia - Win
32) Hunger Games - Mafia - Win
33) HvV Comics - Survivor - Loss
34) Dragonball_Z - Cult - Loss
35) CYOA - Town/Mafia - Loss/Win (I'll count as win)
36) Sci-Fi - Mafia - Loss
37) Board Games - Town - Loss
38) Halo - Town - Win (pretty much)
39) Pokemon - Mafia - Win
40) Bond 007 - Mafia - Win
41) Shakugan - Cult - Loss
42) Burn Notice - Town - Loss (how?)
43) Golden Garden - Cult - Loss
44) The Wire - Mafia - Win
45) TV Shows - Mafia - Win

In 44 games, 22 wins, 22 losses.

(A) Number of times as town: 22
Wins as town: 9
Losses as town: 13
Mislynches: Pixar, Death-in-Mystere, DDO mafia
Mislynch rate: 3/22 = 14%
Win percentage: 59%

(B) Number of times as mafia: 15
Wins as mafia: 12
Losses as mafia: 3
1) Lynches: 4/15 (Illuminati, Brawl, Monetary, Pokemon)
Lynched rate as mafia: 27%
2) Vig-killed: 3/15 (Inheritance, Sci-Fi)
Vig-killed rate as mafia: 20%
3) Survived till the end: 8/15 (Assasins, Star Trek, Starcraft, Hunger, CYOA, Bond, The Wire, TV Shows)
Survival rate: 53%
4) Yakuza'd: 1/15 (Classic mafia)
Win percentage as mafia: 80%

(C) Number of times as non-cult third party: 3
Wins as third party: 0
Losses as third party: 3
Win percentage: 0%

(D) Number of times as cult: 5
Wins as cult: 1
Losses as cult: 4
Win percentage: 20%

Overall win ratio: 50%
airmax1227
Posts: 13,240
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5/24/2012 12:53:08 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Wow, nicely done.

I'm gona browse this data for a bit and see what interesting things I can take from it.
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F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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5/24/2012 12:58:19 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Hmm, it is easier to win as mafia than as town. Most people think I am better as town than mafia but I have a much lower win percentage as town than mafia. I think it has to do with the fact the mafia cannot be night killed so it gives the opportunity to lead the mafia to a win. It is extremely rare for a player to "lead" the town to a win since if such as soon as such a situation seems likely, mafia will night kill that player. Replacements solve this problem.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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5/24/2012 1:00:24 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Also, I want to see how I stack up against the ideal: Drafterman's 100% win rate as mafia and Bluesteel's 0% mislynch rate so I am looking forward to their input. Anyone else have any record breaking stats?
BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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5/24/2012 1:20:31 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
1. Beginner 2.2 - Town - Win
2. Beginner 2.3 - Town - Loss
3. Dexter - Town - Win
4. Star Trek - Mafia - Win
5. Beginner 2.4 - Mafia - Win
6. Beginner 3.2 - Mafia - Win
7. Beginner 3.3 - Town - Loss
8. Classic - Mafia - Win
9. Interwebz - Town - Win
10. HvV Movies - Mafia - Win
11. Inheritance - Mafia - Loss
12. Beginners 5.3 - Mafia - Win
13. HvV Cartoons - Town - Loss
14. Batman - Third party - Loss
15. Solar System - Mafia - Win
16. Aerial Warfare - Mafia - Win
17. Gangster Chronicles - Town - Loss
18. TV Shows - Town - Loss
19. ??? - Town - Loss but not gonna count cause of the game style, lol
20. Brawl - Mafia - Loss
21. Cult Mafia - Mafia - Win
22. Harry Potter - Town - Win
23. DBZ - Cult - Loss
24. HvV Comics - Town - Loss
25. Board Games - Mafia - Win
26. CYOA - Cult - Loss
27. Shakugan no Shana - Third party - Loss
28. 5D's - Town - Win

Overall: 16 wins, 12 losses
Town: 6-6
Mafia: 10-2
Third party: 0-4

Lynched as town: 2/12 (Beginner 3.2, 5D's)
Lynched as mafia: 1/12 (Inheritance)
Other deaths as mafia: Board Games (vig killed), Brawl (PGO).
BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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5/24/2012 1:23:49 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 5/24/2012 1:00:24 AM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
Also, I want to see how I stack up against the ideal: Drafterman's 100% win rate as mafia and Bluesteel's 0% mislynch rate so I am looking forward to their input. Anyone else have any record breaking stats?

I guess my best stat is that as mafia I've only been lynched 8% of the time.
BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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5/24/2012 1:24:47 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 5/24/2012 1:24:00 AM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
You've only been town 6 times and you won them all? Wow.

6-6 as in 6 wins 6 losses.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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5/24/2012 1:28:03 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 5/24/2012 1:23:49 AM, BlackVoid wrote:
At 5/24/2012 1:00:24 AM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
Also, I want to see how I stack up against the ideal: Drafterman's 100% win rate as mafia and Bluesteel's 0% mislynch rate so I am looking forward to their input. Anyone else have any record breaking stats?

I guess my best stat is that as mafia I've only been lynched 8% of the time.

You seem to be lynched more as town than as mafia (% wise), lol.

I guess my best "stat" is that everytime I was lynched as mafia (except once - Brawl), I made it count by setting the mafia up for a win (illuminati where a townie got insta-lynched, the other two were busses). Brawl was a disaster though and prob my worst game.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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5/24/2012 1:29:49 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 5/24/2012 1:24:47 AM, BlackVoid wrote:
At 5/24/2012 1:24:00 AM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
You've only been town 6 times and you won them all? Wow.

6-6 as in 6 wins 6 losses.

I am starting to think almost everyone on this site has a higher win ratio as mafia than as town.

Your stats are really awesome btw. The only time you got lynched as mafia was due to mod-psychology.
BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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5/24/2012 1:37:51 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 5/24/2012 1:28:03 AM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
At 5/24/2012 1:23:49 AM, BlackVoid wrote:
At 5/24/2012 1:00:24 AM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
Also, I want to see how I stack up against the ideal: Drafterman's 100% win rate as mafia and Bluesteel's 0% mislynch rate so I am looking forward to their input. Anyone else have any record breaking stats?

I guess my best stat is that as mafia I've only been lynched 8% of the time.

You seem to be lynched more as town than as mafia (% wise), lol.

I would also have an 8% lynch rate as town if the mafia hadn't silenced me on DP5 :/

I didnt know Bluesteel hans't been mislynched. Thats pretty impressive.
BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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5/24/2012 1:38:38 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 5/24/2012 1:37:51 AM, BlackVoid wrote:
At 5/24/2012 1:28:03 AM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
At 5/24/2012 1:23:49 AM, BlackVoid wrote:
At 5/24/2012 1:00:24 AM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
Also, I want to see how I stack up against the ideal: Drafterman's 100% win rate as mafia and Bluesteel's 0% mislynch rate so I am looking forward to their input. Anyone else have any record breaking stats?

I guess my best stat is that as mafia I've only been lynched 8% of the time.

You seem to be lynched more as town than as mafia (% wise), lol.

I would also have an 8% lynch rate as town if the mafia hadn't silenced me in 5D's :/

I didnt know Bluesteel hans't been mislynched. Thats pretty impressive.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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5/24/2012 1:41:31 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 5/24/2012 1:38:38 AM, BlackVoid wrote:

I didnt know Bluesteel hans't been mislynched. Thats pretty impressive.

I forgot to count HvV Cartoons. Logic has never been mislynched I think. I also think he only got lynched as mafia once or twice.
BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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5/24/2012 1:47:13 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
I would be interested in a stat showing which players have the most posts per game. Its almost impossible to calculate, but would be interesting. We would probably be somewhere up there along with Drafter and Royal.
Apollo.11
Posts: 3,478
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5/24/2012 1:58:53 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
I refuse to consider Burn Notice Mafia a loss for us townies. How do you lynch a mafia EVERY DP and still lose?
Sapere Aude!
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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5/24/2012 6:06:46 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
I used to have a really good survival rate, until F-16 pointed it out and I started dying a lot more, lol.

I haven't updated it in a while, but:

Shakugan no Shana - Lover (Replacement) - Town - Survived
Shakugan no Shana - JOAT - 3rd Party - Killed NP1
Pokemon Mafia - Enabler/Vote Stealer - Mafia - Win - Lynched DP4
Harry Potter Mafia - Cop/Tracker - Town - Win - Killed NP2
Science Fiction Mafia - Medium - Town - Win - Killed NP3
HvV: Comic Mafia - Serial Killer/Self-Reviver - 3rd Party - Win - Survived
DBZ Mafia - JOAT - Town - Win - Survived
Misfits Mafia - Hated - Town - Win (2nd Place) - Lynched DP5
Hunger Games - Doctor - Town - Loss - Killed NP1
Cult Mafia - Vanilla - Town - Loss - Survived
Beginners 7.2 - Vanilla (Replacement) - Town - Win - Survived
Super Smash Bro. Brawl Mafia - Jailkeeper - Town - Win - Killed NP3
Gangsters Mafia - Godfather - Mafia - Win - Killed NP4
Death in Mystere - Jailkeeper (Replacement) - Town - Loss - Killed NP5
Death in Mystere - Inquisitor - 3rd Party - Loss - Killed NP1
Inheritance Mafia - Doctor - Town - Win - Killed NP7
Solar System Mafia - Godfather - Mafia - Win - Lynched DP1
Death Note Mafia - Tracker/Agent - Town - Loss - Lynched DP3
Aerial Warfare Mafia - Ninja/Janitor - Mafia - Win - Survived
StarCraft Mafia - Bulletproof - Town - Loss - Survived
HvV: Cartoon Mafia - Unmasker - Town - Loss - Killed NP5
C-ACIT - Cop - Town - Win - Survived
Tarantino Mafia - JOAT - Town - Win - Survived
Beginners 4.1 - Vigilante - Town - Win - Survived
Beginners 3.3 (Illuminati) - Vigilante - Town - Loss - Survived
Interwebz Mafia - Insane Cop - Town - Win - Survived
Miscellaneous Mafia - Martyr (Replacement) - 3rd Party - Loss - Survived
Miscellaneous Mafia - Sheriff - Town - Win - Killed NP4
HvV: Movie Mafia - JOAT - Mafia - Win - Survived
Anonymous Mafia - Jailkeeper - Town - Loss - Lynched DP3
Classic Mafia - Survivor - 3rd Party - Loss - Lynched DP5
Beginners 3.3 (NASCAR) - Cop (Replacement) - Town - Loss - Lynched DP4
Beginners 3.2 (NASCAR) - Forensic Investigator - Town - Loss - Killed NP1
Beginners 3.1 - Vanilla - Town - Win - Killed NP4
Beginners 2.4 (Mob wars) - Roleblocker - Mafia - Win - Killed NP3
Star Trek - Backup Cop - Town - Loss - Lynched DP5
Dexter Mafia - Politician - Town - Win - Killed NP8
Pixar Mafia - Disabled Vig (Replacement) - Town - Loss - Killed NP4

Stats:
Total Games Played - 32 (+6 replacements)

Times Won as Town - 15/27 (56%)
Times Won as Mafia - 6/6 (100%)
Times Won as 3rd Party - 1/5 (20%)
Overall: 22/38 (58%)

Survival Rate: 14/38 (37%)
Lynched Rate: 8/38 (21%)
Killed Rate: 16/37 (42%)

Most Common Roles:
Cop (x5)

JOAT (x4)

Vanilla (x3)
Jailkeeper (x3)

Doctor (x2)
Godfather (x2)
Vigilante (x2)
Tracker (x2)
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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5/24/2012 6:44:22 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Updated List. On a losing streak, apparently:

TV 5 - Vigilante - Town - Loss - Lynched DP2
Golden Garden - Survivor - 3rd Party - Loss - Lynched DP5
Frere Jacques - Cult Leader - 3rd Party - Loss - Killed NP2
The Wire - Cop - Town - Loss - Killed NP2
DDO Mafia Players - Serial Killer - 3rd Party - Killed NP2
5Ds (Yu-Gi-Oh) - Doctor - Town - Win - Killed NP5
Shakugan no Shana - Lover (Replacement) - Town - Win - Survived
Shakugan no Shana - JOAT - 3rd Party - Loss - Killed NP1
Pokemon Mafia - Enabler/Vote Stealer - Mafia - Win - Lynched DP4
Harry Potter Mafia - Cop/Tracker - Town - Win - Killed NP2
Science Fiction Mafia - Medium - Town - Win - Killed NP3
HvV: Comic Mafia - Serial Killer/Self-Reviver - 3rd Party - Win - Survived
DBZ Mafia - JOAT - Town - Win - Survived
Misfits Mafia - Hated - Town - Win (2nd Place) - Lynched DP5
Hunger Games - Doctor - Town - Loss - Killed NP1
Cult Mafia - Vanilla - Town - Loss - Survived
Beginners 7.2 - Vanilla (Replacement) - Town - Win - Survived
Super Smash Bro. Brawl Mafia - Jailkeeper - Town - Win - Killed NP3
Gangsters Mafia - Godfather - Mafia - Win - Killed NP4
Death in Mystere - Jailkeeper (Replacement) - Town - Loss - Killed NP5
Death in Mystere - Inquisitor - 3rd Party - Loss - Killed NP1
Inheritance Mafia - Doctor - Town - Win - Killed NP7
Solar System Mafia - Godfather - Mafia - Win - Lynched DP1
Death Note Mafia - Tracker/Agent - Town - Loss - Lynched DP3
Aerial Warfare Mafia - Ninja/Janitor - Mafia - Win - Survived
StarCraft Mafia - Bulletproof - Town - Loss - Survived
HvV: Cartoon Mafia - Unmasker - Town - Loss - Killed NP5
C-ACIT - Cop - Town - Win - Survived
Tarantino Mafia - JOAT - Town - Win - Survived
Beginners 4.1 - Vigilante - Town - Win - Survived
Beginners 3.3 (Illuminati) - Vigilante - Town - Loss - Survived
Interwebz Mafia - Insane Cop - Town - Win - Survived
Miscellaneous Mafia - Martyr (Replacement) - 3rd Party - Loss - Survived
Miscellaneous Mafia - Sheriff - Town - Win - Killed NP4
HvV: Movie Mafia - JOAT - Mafia - Win - Survived
Anonymous Mafia - Jailkeeper - Town - Loss - Lynched DP3
Classic Mafia - Survivor - 3rd Party - Loss - Lynched DP5
Beginners 3.3 (NASCAR) - Cop (Replacement) - Town - Loss - Lynched DP4
Beginners 3.2 (NASCAR) - Forensic Investigator - Town - Loss - Killed NP1
Beginners 3.1 - Vanilla - Town - Win - Killed NP4
Beginners 2.4 (Mob wars) - Roleblocker - Mafia - Win - Killed NP3
Star Trek - Backup Cop - Town - Loss - Lynched DP5
Dexter Mafia - Politician - Town - Win - Killed NP8
Pixar Mafia - Disabled Vig (Replacement) - Town - Loss - Killed NP4

Stats:
Total Games Played - 38 (+6 replacements)

Times Won as Town - 16/30 (53%)
Times Won as Mafia - 6/6 (100%)
Times Won as 3rd Party - 1/8 (13%)
Overall: 23/44 (52%)

Survival Rate: 14/44 (32%)
Lynched Rate: 10/44 (23%)
Killed Rate: 20/44 (45%)

Most Common Role:
Cop (x6)

JOAT (x4)

Vanilla (x3)
Jailkeeper (x3)
Doctor (x3)
Vigilante (x3)

Godfather (x2)
Tracker (x2)
Serial Killer (x2)
Survivor (x2)
medic0506
Posts: 13,450
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5/24/2012 10:30:21 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 5/24/2012 12:51:12 AM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
I always wanted to calculate win/loss ratios but since Spinko's last thread, I lost track of games. Drafterman made a neat list of mafia games (although for a different purpose), so here is my mafia record since the very first game I played (excluding some beginners (not all), bastard, and anonymous games. I didn't count the ones in which I was replaced (BH's TV shows, Frere Jacques, Ignatious Creek) or the ones where I had no clue what was going on (VK's game with all the Masons and maybe one of USM's games which was all cult).

1) Knowledge mafia - Town - Loss
2) Beginner's 1.3 Mob Wars - Town - Loss
3) Assassins Creed - Mafia - Win
4) Beginner's 2.2 - Town - Win
5) Beginner's 2.3 - Town - Loss
6) Pixar vs Dreamworks - Town - Loss
7) Dexter - Town - Win
8) Star Trek - Mafia recruited - Win
9) Nascar - Town - Loss
10) Illuminati - Mafia - Win
11) Ancap - Town - Win
12) Drugged Out - Cult - Win
13) Classic - Mafia - Win
14) Miscellaneous - Town - Win
15) Interwebz - Survivor - Loss
16) QTarantino - Town - Win
17) C'ACIT - Town - Win
18) Inheritance - Mafia recruited - Loss
19) Monk - Town - Loss
20) Starcraft - Mafia - Win
21) HvV Cartoons - Third party - Loss
22) Death Note - Town - Loss
23) Solar system - Town - Loss
24) FF7 - Town - Loss
25) Batman - Town - Win
26) Gangster's - Cult - Loss
27) Death-in-mystere - Town - Loss
28) DDO mafia players - Town - Loss
29) Brawl - Mafia - Loss
30) Misfits - Town - Win (I'll count it as a town win since I was critical to the win)
31) Monetary Mafia - Mafia - Win
32) Hunger Games - Mafia - Win
33) HvV Comics - Survivor - Loss
34) Dragonball_Z - Cult - Loss
35) CYOA - Town/Mafia - Loss/Win (I'll count as win)
36) Sci-Fi - Mafia - Loss
37) Board Games - Town - Loss
38) Halo - Town - Win (pretty much)
39) Pokemon - Mafia - Win
40) Bond 007 - Mafia - Win
41) Shakugan - Cult - Loss
42) Burn Notice - Town - Loss (how?)
43) Golden Garden - Cult - Loss
44) The Wire - Mafia - Win
45) TV Shows - Mafia - Win

In 44 games, 22 wins, 22 losses.

(A) Number of times as town: 22
Wins as town: 9
Losses as town: 13
Mislynches: Pixar, Death-in-Mystere, DDO mafia
Mislynch rate: 3/22 = 14%
Win percentage: 59%

(B) Number of times as mafia: 15
Wins as mafia: 12
Losses as mafia: 3
1) Lynches: 4/15 (Illuminati, Brawl, Monetary, Pokemon)
Lynched rate as mafia: 27%
2) Vig-killed: 3/15 (Inheritance, Sci-Fi)
Vig-killed rate as mafia: 20%
3) Survived till the end: 8/15 (Assasins, Star Trek, Starcraft, Hunger, CYOA, Bond, The Wire, TV Shows)
Survival rate: 53%
4) Yakuza'd: 1/15 (Classic mafia)
Win percentage as mafia: 80%

(C) Number of times as non-cult third party: 3
Wins as third party: 0
Losses as third party: 3
Win percentage: 0%

(D) Number of times as cult: 5
Wins as cult: 1
Losses as cult: 4
Win percentage: 20%

Overall win ratio: 50%

Hate to be a stickler for detail but you list the town win percentage as 59% but I think it should be 41%. You won 9 of 22.

I wouldn't even want to try and calculate my mislynch rate, it's prolly pretty high.