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The Mafia Betting League

tvellalott
Posts: 10,864
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7/23/2012 12:58:01 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
I have an interesting idea, which appeals to me because I don't have time to participate in mafia games, but I'm sure as fvck still interested.

Basically it would work like this; anyone not involved in a game can analyse it (as you would if playing). They then come to me (or if I want to make a bet, I could use some other person) and give me their prediction.
It could be as simple as "It's NP1 and I predict, based on DP1 that bluesteel is town" which I would give reasonable fair odds.
Or, you could get down right specific (It's pre-game and I predict F-16 is godfather, royalpaladin is role cop and FourTrouble is roleblocker)
Or, you could bet on something more abstract, like "It's DP3 and medic0506 is claiming to have a tracked drafterman; he visited the only person who was killed last night. I bet that the result is false, but that medic is telling the truth."
You get the point...

Obviously the further into the game, the worse your odds I will give you.

If there is some interest in this, I will put more thought into it... It's an interesting concept. Obviously we won't deal in real money, only DDO-Kredits (made-up currency) of which everyone who wishes to participate will begin with an equal amount.
"Caitlyn Jenner is an incredibly brave and stunningly beautiful woman."

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Using mafia tactics in real-life: http://www.debate.org...
6 years of DDO: http://www.debate.org...
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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7/23/2012 1:02:07 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
I was interested but then realized we have to analyze games in which we are not participating. No one wants to do that since they would much rather participate. I would be interested if you allow bets to be made upon being night killed/mislynched. That is when most players are in a betting mood.
Buddamoose
Posts: 19,448
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7/23/2012 1:04:04 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Hmmm, this is an interesting concept. However I play in so many games, that I would rarely be able to participate unless dead players in games were allowed to bet as well.

Not sure how that would work with replacing back in, and would feel it understandable if certain mods disqualified being a replacement if a bet is placed.
"Reality is an illusion created due to a lack of alcohol"
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tvellalott
Posts: 10,864
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7/23/2012 1:31:50 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 7/23/2012 1:18:19 AM, TUF wrote:
What are the DDO-kredits for?

Bragging rights?

Of course.

OK, so the main objection seems to be that players want to bet on the games they've been in. That's fine, but your odds will have to reflect that and penalties will apply for anyone caught cheating (like if you were a cop and you got a guilty, but you died so you bet that that player is mafia and profit). Bets which you have the ability to directly influence (like 'I bet the mafia will kill player x' when you're in the mafia thread) won't be accepted.
"Caitlyn Jenner is an incredibly brave and stunningly beautiful woman."

Muh threads
Using mafia tactics in real-life: http://www.debate.org...
6 years of DDO: http://www.debate.org...
bossyburrito
Posts: 14,075
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7/23/2012 4:46:48 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
This sounds like it would influence games too much.
#UnbanTheMadman

"Some will sell their dreams for small desires
Or lose the race to rats
Get caught in ticking traps
And start to dream of somewhere
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Somewhere out of a memory of lighted streets on quiet nights..."

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Korashk
Posts: 4,597
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7/23/2012 5:14:07 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 7/23/2012 1:31:50 AM, tvellalott wrote:
At 7/23/2012 1:18:19 AM, TUF wrote:
What are the DDO-kredits for?

Bragging rights?

Of course.

OK, so the main objection seems to be that players want to bet on the games they've been in. That's fine, but your odds will have to reflect that and penalties will apply for anyone caught cheating (like if you were a cop and you got a guilty, but you died so you bet that that player is mafia and profit). Bets which you have the ability to directly influence (like 'I bet the mafia will kill player x' when you're in the mafia thread) won't be accepted.

My two cents on making this an "official" thing:
- Current players betting on games they're in/have been violates the rule about not discussing games outside of their specific threads? There are plenty of games that go on, no need to theoretically bet on ones you're in. Plus the issues you mention
- There should be standards as to what gets bet on. I'll suggest some later.
- Everything not in the standards should be side bets between those betting.
- Business with standard bets should be concluded before the day phase they're applicable in.
- Instead of credits carrying over from game to game you get X number of credits every game and your wins and losses are tallied.

Some Possible Standards:
- Before Game - X is Day 1 Lynch: "#Players:1"
- Before Game - Number of Mafia: "Some small odd:1"
- Before Game - X is Mafia: "Average # of Mafia in Game Size:1"
- Before Game - X is Town: "Average # of Town in Game Size:1"
- Before Game - Day 1 Mafia Lynch
- Before Game - Day 1 Town Lynch
- Before Game - Mafia Win
- Before Game - Town Win
- During NP2 thru. Last NP - Mafia Kill
- During NP2 thru. Last NP - Vig Kill
- During NP2 thru. Last NP - Doctor Protects
- During NP2 thru. Last NP - Cop Investigates
- During NP2 thru. Last NP - Other role actions

Obviously the odds for actions after the beginning should change to reflect the events of the game
When large numbers of otherwise-law abiding people break specific laws en masse, it's usually a fault that lies with the law. - Unknown
tvellalott
Posts: 10,864
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7/23/2012 6:14:20 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 7/23/2012 4:46:48 AM, bossyburrito wrote:
This sounds like it would influence games too much.

Players in the game can't bet, nor are bets public. I don't see how outside spectators can influence game...
"Caitlyn Jenner is an incredibly brave and stunningly beautiful woman."

Muh threads
Using mafia tactics in real-life: http://www.debate.org...
6 years of DDO: http://www.debate.org...
blackhawk1331
Posts: 4,932
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7/23/2012 10:07:01 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Sounds interesting.
Because you said it was a waste, numb nuts. - Drafter

So fvck you. :) - TV

Use prima facie correctly or not at all. - Noumena
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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7/23/2012 1:03:33 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 7/23/2012 1:02:00 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
i like it. It is like the stock market betting on elections.

Odds of someone successfully pressuring Greyparrot into claiming 1,000:1
caveat
Posts: 2,137
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7/23/2012 1:58:31 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 7/23/2012 1:03:33 PM, drafterman wrote:
At 7/23/2012 1:02:00 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
i like it. It is like the stock market betting on elections.

Odds of someone successfully pressuring Greyparrot into claiming 1,000:1

Odds of Greyparrot claiming without any pressure whatsoever 1,000,000:1
There is an art, it says, or rather, a knack to flying. The knack lies in learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss. " Clearly, it is this second part, the missing, which presents the difficulties.
vmpire321
Posts: 4,731
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7/23/2012 2:50:20 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 7/23/2012 1:58:31 PM, caveat wrote:
At 7/23/2012 1:03:33 PM, drafterman wrote:
At 7/23/2012 1:02:00 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
i like it. It is like the stock market betting on elections.

Odds of someone successfully pressuring Greyparrot into claiming 1,000:1

Odds of Greyparrot claiming without any pressure whatsoever 1,000,000:1

That should be higher
bossyburrito
Posts: 14,075
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7/24/2012 2:05:11 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 7/23/2012 6:14:20 AM, tvellalott wrote:
At 7/23/2012 4:46:48 AM, bossyburrito wrote:
This sounds like it would influence games too much.

Players in the game can't bet, nor are bets public. I don't see how outside spectators can influence game...

Ok. I just didn't want someone analyzing a game and placing a bet for everyone in the game to see and get another opinion on.
#UnbanTheMadman

"Some will sell their dreams for small desires
Or lose the race to rats
Get caught in ticking traps
And start to dream of somewhere
To relax their restless flight
Somewhere out of a memory of lighted streets on quiet nights..."

~ Rush