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Slaves of Time Mafia Future DP6

Mestari
Posts: 4,656
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8/19/2012 2:07:27 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Dead last DP

OneElepant - Future: You are PARANOIA. When anything suspicious happens you gather a list of suspects and find out everything there is to know about each one of them. You want to know every detail from their date of birth, where they were last Monday, what type of coffee they like, even how often they walk their dogs. You are the SENSOR. One time during the game you may determine how many people on a lynch had skin in the game (how many are mafia). You win with the town.

Nobody died in the night.

Living Players

1. TUF
2. Zaradi
3. IFLY
4. Drafter 2
5. F-16
6. Apollo
7. Royal
8. Bossy
9. Bluesteel
10. Blackhawk

With 10 players remaining it takes 6 votes to lynch.
Rules of Mafia

1. Mestari is never third party.
2. If Mestari claims an intricate and page long TP role, he's telling the truth.
3. Mestari always jointly wins with the town.
3b. If he doesn't he's mafia.
3c. If he was mafia you wouldn't suspect him in the first place.
4. If you lynch Mestari you will lose because he will be the third party Doctor or some other townie power role.
5. DP1 lynches are good.
6. The answer is always no.
Zaradi
Posts: 14,128
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8/19/2012 2:12:11 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
West was lynched last DP. He was the CATHOLIC CHURCH, a GOVERNOR, and was Town.

This makes me slightly suspicious of Bluesteel, since he was insistant in the last DP that west was probably mafia, but I have nothing else to go on so I wouldn't place a FOS yet.
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F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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8/19/2012 2:19:43 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Dead

1) Drafter(1) - Organized Religion - PAST: Doctor - FUT: (unknown?) - CULT
2) Johnny - Money - PAST: Vanilla - FUT: Commuter - THIRD PARTY
3) Logic - Monopoly - PAST/FUT: Designated Killer, 1x Janitor - MAFIA
4) FT - Capitalism - PAST: (unknown?) - FUT: (unknown?) - MAFIA
5) Vmpire - Conspiracy - PAST: (unknown?) FUT: Nexus - TOWN
6) Caveat - Communication - PAST: Messenger - FUT: Mason - TOWN
7) west - Catholic Church - PAST: 1x Governor - FUT: (unknown) - TOWN
8) OneE - (Paranoia - PAST: Roleblocking PGO - FUT: Paranoid Sensor) - TOWN

Future

Role Claims
1) Zaradi - Ingenuity - BOTH: Exist in both Time States
2) Drafter(2) - Seduction - PAST: Miller - FUT: Miller, compulsive roleblocker
3) F-16 - Enthusiasm - PAST: Cheerleader - FUT: Motivator
4) IFLY - Luck - PAST/FUT: Gambler (JOAT)
5) TUF - Digital Technology - PAST: N/A - FUT: Back up power role
6) Bossy - Privacy - PAST: 1-x bulletproof - FUT: auto-redirect all night actions to himself

Partial Claims
7) HCP/Royal - Community - PAST: Cop, NP1 guilty on Logic, - FUT: ????
8) BH - Happiness - PAST: ????? - FUT: Miller
9) Apollo - Loyalty - PAST: Vanilla - FUT: ????
10) Blue - ???? - PAST: Day Vig - FUT: ????

Past

Role Claims
1) Zaradi - Ingenuity - BOTH: Exist in both Time States
2) Viper - Curiosity - PAST: Cop - FUT: Tracker (NP1 tracked zaradi)

Partial Claims
3) Budda - Security - PAST: ????? - FUT: ?????
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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8/19/2012 2:31:06 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
- I used my role on IFLY so he should have two results for us.

- TUF should have gotten a Mason Recruiter power. TUF who did you recruit?

- BH, what is your past role? I don't think you claimed this last past DP.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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8/19/2012 2:32:30 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Oh, and Zaradi, when you copy-pasted the claims list last DP in the future from the past which showed you as being a vote-locker, which page did you get it from?
TUF
Posts: 21,310
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8/19/2012 2:40:05 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 2:31:06 AM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
- TUF should have gotten a Mason Recruiter power. TUF who did you recruit?

I feel it would be foolish to out that person against his will. A confirmed townie, may end up in his death. If he wishes to reveal himself, then he can.
"I've got to go and grab a shirt" ~ Airmax1227
Zaradi
Posts: 14,128
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8/19/2012 2:46:13 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Okay, now I'm really starting to get suspicious of Blue from the lynch on Western because his justification for lynch was absolutely weak. It'd be weak even if he was pushing for a claim. His justification for lynching was basically:

1) Western and HCP were both inactive. HCP was replaced so town. Western wasn't replaced and since mods are generally more lenient on mafia being inactive, western is mafia by mod psych.

This is a weak justification because, frankly, a) I fail to see how mods are more lenient to mafia than to town because if anything mods are still as hard because you can still replace people who are mafia, so long as it's with either a) a dead townie with no other affiliation to any other people or b) mod psych is a horrible justification to lynch someone on because it's pure guess-work. There's literally no way to be sure that what you're saying is truth and you're just throwing something out there and just hoping it sticks. To use this as a warrant to CLAIM, much less lynch, is shaky at best.

2) If West was a governor, then he can overturn the lynch onto VK (next scummiest target) and it's win-win.

No, no, no. a) He's been massively inactive, so he wouldn't even be able to cooperate with the plan if he wanted to (we can assume from the way he flipped that he would've wanted to, if for so little as for self-preservation). So all that was doing was raising a plan that he knew wouldn't ever happen in order to lynch a probable townie role (the ability to overturn a lynch in the hands of a mafioso would be MASSIVELY overpowered). b) All this does is sets up a double mis-lynch situation where there's the following results that could happen:

R1: West overturns the lynch onto VK, VK flips inno, West is then lynched for realz.
R2: West overturns the lynch onto VK, VK flips guilty, West confirmed but stripped of power.
R3: West overturns lynch onto completely random person (for whatever reason), probable townie death, West is then mislynched followed by VK.
R4: West doesn't overturn the lynch, flips inno, VK gets reciprocally lynched.
R5: West doesn't overturn, flips guilty, no lynch next DP (unless new lead found).

(Following results presume affiliation of West and VK and are in no way what I believe them to be).

Now if we look at the results, let's tally the probable townie deaths to scum deaths:

Townie Deaths: 6-7 (depending on how random townie flips)
Scum Deaths: 2-3 (depending on how random townie flips)

So it would be more than 3x more likely for a double mislynch than not.

And since West flips innocent, what does Bluesteel do? Flees to the other DP to avoid the probable firestorm that will occur since West flipped innocent. That doesn't seem very townie-like behavior to me, since if he was sure that West was guilty, he would've stuck around to claim credit for the lynch and use it to further confirm himself. But instead, he flees to a different DP, where none (save me) know what went down (unless they want to read through 40+ posts of fluff and 50+ posts of wasting time). That doesn't seem townie to me.

So yeah, I'm gonna place a FOS on Bluesteel and let's see how badly he rips this apart .-. But this is all I got from just reading over one DP. I may go look back at more if I need to.

But for now, I think this will suffice.

VTL Blue
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TUF
Posts: 21,310
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8/19/2012 2:54:02 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
An inactive blue, means a high likelihood of being mafia, based on previous games. Usually when blue is town, he practically dominates the DP'es.

He was semi-active DP2. I think he has been in the past, or inactive since then.
"I've got to go and grab a shirt" ~ Airmax1227
Zaradi
Posts: 14,128
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8/19/2012 3:12:35 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 2:32:30 AM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
Oh, and Zaradi, when you copy-pasted the claims list last DP in the future from the past which showed you as being a vote-locker, which page did you get it from?

.-. Wow this is going to sound scummy but I can't find it now .-.
I looked from everywhere up to Past DP3 and Future DP4 and I can't find it. I don't think it's any further back, but if I have to I'll go through there. I don't think I missed it that easily....
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royalpaladin
Posts: 22,357
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8/19/2012 9:49:14 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Zaradi, the point of lynching West was to see if he was governor. If he had been active, he could have overturned the lynch.
IFLYHIGH
Posts: 5,223
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8/19/2012 11:05:15 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 2:31:06 AM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
- I used my role on IFLY so he should have two results for us.

I rolled doc twice. I know, it sucks.

- TUF should have gotten a Mason Recruiter power. TUF who did you recruit?

- BH, what is your past role? I don't think you claimed this last past DP.
IFLYHIGH
Posts: 5,223
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8/19/2012 11:26:39 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
@TUF- I think you should say who you recruited. We know that out of the five remaining people from last DP, one is still scum.

1. TUF
2. Zaradi
3. IFLY
4. Drafter 2
5. F-16

If you recruited somebody, that would confirm you and the person you recruited. That gives us a 1/3rd chance of lynching mafia today.
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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8/19/2012 12:00:07 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 11:26:39 AM, IFLYHIGH wrote:
@TUF- I think you should say who you recruited. We know that out of the five remaining people from last DP, one is still scum.

1. TUF
2. Zaradi
3. IFLY
4. Drafter 2
5. F-16

If you recruited somebody, that would confirm you and the person you recruited. That gives us a 1/3rd chance of lynching mafia today.

Which is no greater than the normal chance.
bluesteel
Posts: 12,301
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8/19/2012 12:52:32 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
A few things:

1) This is my last game for awhile. I'm starting law school tomorrow. Don't expect lots of activity.

2) I never wanted to lynch west, I wanted one of the last claims. I think it was budda's retarded idea to just lynch him and bossy "accidentally" hammered.

I argued AGAINST just lynching west, without letting him claim. I TOLD all of you guys (INCLUDING YOU ZARADI) that governors may or MAY NOT be able to stop their own lynch.

I also TRIED to kill bossy right as the DP ended, since I think all accidental hammers are fake, but mestari said the DP was over.

3) I've also said repeatedly that zaradi and TUF are likely mafia. They can't commute, yet mafia hasn't been getting NK's. If mafia are failing to get kills because they keep targeting commuters, it seems kind of obvious to kill the two people they can kill, instead of not getting any kills at all.

So my suspicions are bossy, zaradi, and TUF, in that order.
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
bluesteel
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8/19/2012 12:53:55 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
And who was the person who could lock votes, if it wasn't zaradi? Didn't we test someone DP1?
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
bluesteel
Posts: 12,301
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8/19/2012 12:54:49 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
and ??? - blackhawk - not only did you avoid claiming last DP what your new role was, but you're telling me it was worse than miller?? cuz you're back here.
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
bluesteel
Posts: 12,301
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8/19/2012 12:55:30 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 12:54:49 PM, bluesteel wrote:
and ??? - blackhawk - not only did you avoid claiming last DP what your new role was, but you're telling me it was worse than miller?? cuz you're back here.

oh wait, i forgot about the DP combination rule
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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8/19/2012 1:01:31 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Unclaimed should claim. I'd ask BS to claim because he's online but I'd actually have Blackhawk claim first since he never claimed when he was in the past. Then Apollo, then Bluesteel, then Royal. After that, we can post more analysis and decide on the best lynch target.
bluesteel
Posts: 12,301
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8/19/2012 1:10:05 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 2:46:13 AM, Zaradi wrote:
Okay, now I'm really starting to get suspicious of Blue from the lynch on Western because his justification for lynch was absolutely weak. It'd be weak even if he was pushing for a claim. His justification for lynching was basically:

I argued against his lynch. I put a SINGLE vote on him. Budda argued for his lynch, a ton of people bandwagoned quickly, and then someone "accidentally" hammered. You're barking up the wrong tree in analyzing this lynch. There are a lot of other suspicious things that happened there.

1) Western and HCP were both inactive. HCP was replaced so town. Western wasn't replaced and since mods are generally more lenient on mafia being inactive, western is mafia by mod psych.

I suspected drafterman #1 based on mod psych. Mod psych isn't an automatic fail. It's not a bad reason to want a character claim.

This is a weak justification because, frankly, a) I fail to see how mods are more lenient to mafia than to town because if anything mods are still as hard because you can still replace people who are mafia

I didn't say they never replace them, just that they wait longer because mafiosos are given some credit for "participating" in the mafia PM. As much as I try to avoid people using mod psych on ME when I mod, I have been guilty of doing this multiple times.

so long as it's with either a) a dead townie with no other affiliation to any other people or b) mod psych is a horrible justification to lynch someone on because it's pure guess-work. There's literally no way to be sure that what you're saying is truth and you're just throwing something out there and just hoping it sticks. To use this as a warrant to CLAIM, much less lynch, is shaky at best.

If I remember correctly, you wanted to lynch viper because "Cmon GUYZ, the future DP is so far ahead. Let's just lynch people so we can catch up." I wanted to slow the DP down, which is why I asked for a different person to claim. Mafia rush, town stall. Simple as that.

2) If West was a governor, then he can overturn the lynch onto VK (next scummiest target) and it's win-win.

No, no, no. a) He's been massively inactive, so he wouldn't even be able to cooperate with the plan if he wanted to (we can assume from the way he flipped that he would've wanted to, if for so little as for self-preservation). So all that was doing was raising a plan that he knew wouldn't ever happen in order to lynch a probable townie role (the ability to overturn a lynch in the hands of a mafioso would be MASSIVELY overpowered). b) All this does is sets up a double mis-lynch situation where there's the following results that could happen:

R1: West overturns the lynch onto VK, VK flips inno, West is then lynched for realz.
R2: West overturns the lynch onto VK, VK flips guilty, West confirmed but stripped of power.
R3: West overturns lynch onto completely random person (for whatever reason), probable townie death, West is then mislynched followed by VK.
R4: West doesn't overturn the lynch, flips inno, VK gets reciprocally lynched.
R5: West doesn't overturn, flips guilty, no lynch next DP (unless new lead found).

(Following results presume affiliation of West and VK and are in no way what I believe them to be).

Now if we look at the results, let's tally the probable townie deaths to scum deaths:

Townie Deaths: 6-7 (depending on how random townie flips)
Scum Deaths: 2-3 (depending on how random townie flips)

So it would be more than 3x more likely for a double mislynch than not.

so why are you VTL'ing me and not budda, whose plan this was to have the governor "overturn the lynch onto VK." Not only did I think this was weird because mafiascum wiki lists governor as not necessarily being able to stop his own lynch, but ALSO I didn't see anywhere that governor's could overturn the lynch onto someone else, just cause a no lynch.

I don't get why you're purposely misconstruing facts. The DP is there and mestari says anyone can read already finished DP's from the other time period. There's no point in you lying.

And since West flips innocent, what does Bluesteel do? Flees to the other DP to avoid the probable firestorm that will occur since West flipped innocent. That doesn't seem very townie-like behavior to me, since if he was sure that West was guilty, he would've stuck around to claim credit for the lynch and use it to further confirm himself. But instead, he flees to a different DP, where none (save me) know what went down (unless they want to read through 40+ posts of fluff and 50+ posts of wasting time). That doesn't seem townie to me.

this is the biggest piece of garbage ever. You're SO obviously manufacturing reasons against me (scumtell). I left because I didn't want to be NK'ed, as did pretty much every other person who was in the past. Only 3 people stayed and one was you (who can't commute). And not only am I not stupid enough, but I don't think anyone in the world is stupid enough, to think that they could avoid flak for causing a mislynch by commuting. People are allowed to read the other DP threads once they end. Clearly YOU forgot this fact, which is why you're misconstruing what happened in the last Past DP.

So yeah, I'm gonna place a FOS on Bluesteel and let's see how badly he rips this apart .-. But this is all I got from just reading over one DP. I may go look back at more if I need to.

I'm glad you claim you just read the DP when posting this. It shows you're not just misremembering, you're purposely misconstruing.

But for now, I think this will suffice.

VTL Blue

for what? death?
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
bluesteel
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8/19/2012 1:18:23 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
lol, I'll laugh if I'm somehow completely wrong and VK and budda are the last mafiosos. I think budda soft claimed doctor last phase but hasn't actually claimed anything. It's worth thinking about though, whether mafia tried to be strategic about which phase they stayed in.

For the record, I was hoping that either VK or royal would cop zaradi.

Ummm, this is awkward, but zaradi, can you ask VK if he copped you :P
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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8/19/2012 1:21:09 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 1:18:23 PM, bluesteel wrote:
lol, I'll laugh if I'm somehow completely wrong and VK and budda are the last mafiosos. I think budda soft claimed doctor last phase but hasn't actually claimed anything. It's worth thinking about though, whether mafia tried to be strategic about which phase they stayed in.

For the record, I was hoping that either VK or royal would cop zaradi.

Ummm, this is awkward, but zaradi, can you ask VK if he copped you :P

We were starting to suspect Zaradi last phase. He was supposed to tell you to vig him.
bluesteel
Posts: 12,301
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8/19/2012 1:31:28 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 1:21:09 PM, drafterman wrote:
At 8/19/2012 1:18:23 PM, bluesteel wrote:
lol, I'll laugh if I'm somehow completely wrong and VK and budda are the last mafiosos. I think budda soft claimed doctor last phase but hasn't actually claimed anything. It's worth thinking about though, whether mafia tried to be strategic about which phase they stayed in.

For the record, I was hoping that either VK or royal would cop zaradi.

Ummm, this is awkward, but zaradi, can you ask VK if he copped you :P

We were starting to suspect Zaradi last phase. He was supposed to tell you to vig him.

lol, really? I can't tell if you're serious. I considered it after my first FOS on him, but VK and west were also good targets at that point so I couldn't decide. One reason I wanted more claims - have a more informed decision about who to kill. If west's character checked out and he had a good explanation for not commuting (probably inactivity), I planned on vigging zaradi.
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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8/19/2012 1:36:31 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I agree with bluesteel's analysis on Bossy. One thing I was wondering as I was making the Drafterlists was that how come Bossy's role doesn't have a name? All the other roles have names, but Bossy's is basically "redirects all night actions to self." On mafiascum, it is called a lightning rod I believe but I don't think that matches with the names Mestari is giving. Drafter made the same mistake in an old game (HvV Movies) where his role was jack of all all all trades but there was already a JOAT so he didn't claim it. Could this be a tell Bossy is mafia?

Zaradi - my main reason for suspecting him is that he could have been recruited by Caveat since Caveat had previously tried recruiting him.

I still want at least BH's and Apollo's claims before making a decision however.
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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8/19/2012 6:43:45 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 3:37:43 PM, royalpaladin wrote:
VTL Bossy based on the "accidental hammer".

Can we get a list of your and HCP's results? All I recall is the guilty on Logic.
IFLYHIGH
Posts: 5,223
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8/19/2012 7:52:44 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 12:00:07 PM, drafterman wrote:
At 8/19/2012 11:26:39 AM, IFLYHIGH wrote:
@TUF- I think you should say who you recruited. We know that out of the five remaining people from last DP, one is still scum.

1. TUF
2. Zaradi
3. IFLY
4. Drafter 2
5. F-16

If you recruited somebody, that would confirm you and the person you recruited. That gives us a 1/3rd chance of lynching mafia today.

Which is no greater than the normal chance.

That depends on how many scum are in this DP. There is a chance that everybody who commuted from the past is town. Also, I think it would be easy to deduce who is scum from the five people above if we know who TUF recruited. If he recruited you for example, Zaradi is obvious mafia from my POV. If the person is worried about being NK'd, they can always commute.

Another reason I want TUF to out his recruit is because I still have doubts about him. I would at least like confirmation he is town.