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Fire and Ice Mafia Endgame

F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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11/17/2012 9:21:07 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
NP5 Actions:

Medic (Fire Mafia goon) kills Drafterman(3)
OneElephant (Ice Mafia Lawyer) kills Medic

The remaining players are TV(2) (Lyncher) and OneElephant.

Since TV lynched his target and survived till the end, he wins first place with bonus points as well. OneElephant gets second place for his team. Since the last Fire Mafia (Medic) and the last townie (Drafterman(3)) died during the same night, town and Fire Mafia tie for last place.

WINNER OF F-16's Fire and Ice Mafia game - Tvellalott
(Target - Bossyburrito)
* TV wins bonus points as well for surviving to the endgame after lynching his target.

Second Place: Ice Mafia - OneElephant, Logic_on_Rails

Tie for last place:
- Fire Mafia (Medic, IFLYHIGH2)
- Town (Drafterman, bossy, budda, FourTrouble, TV1, Daytona, HCP, IFLY1, and assorted others who got replaced and probably won't and shouldn't be included in the list.

Analysis

This was a very interesting game. Town shot themselves in the foot considerably after IFLY's stroke of brilliance DP1. After lynching IFLY, there were 2 more mislynches (FT, and Bossy) after which town's destiny was out of it's hands.

Things I noted was that this kind of game polarized the experienced/skilled players vs the remaining players. FT, Drafter, TV, Medic, and IFLY were in a class of their own. The comparison to Bossy, Ober, daytona, and HCP was very stark. The experienced players were more active and scumhunted while the less experienced/inactive ones who were used to power roles giving them the answers pretty much disengaged from the game. Overall, I would say this game was successful on some aspects though it didn't have the universal appeal of my last game. For my next one... I am undecided which way to go.

Notes on players - TV was obviously the MVP. He did get a little lucky with the RNG which made his target Bossy. If he had Drafterman or FourTrouble as a target for instance, it would have been a much more difficult job. However, his performance was splendid when he got his target lynched and turned around to help the town and damn near had it made. Medic had told me to kill OneElephant. Then he quickly said scratch that, kill Drafter. This was right before the endgame. Had Medic not changed his kill, town would have gotten second place by themselves with both mafias tying for last place!

As it was though, town let their initial advantage after Logic's death slip considerably, and the number of scummy looking inactive players like Bossy drew a lot of attention which kept attention away from the scum factions.

On the Fire Mafia side, at the start of the Day Phase, it looked at though they had the game in the bag. 5 players - 2 Fire Mafia. As long as they didn't get lynched, they basically could not have lost. But then came TV in his magnificent Australian splendour riding in a Kangaroo's pouch to destroy the Fire Mafia and all they have worked to build over nearly 3 weeks of gameplay. The higher they build, the harder they fall. Medic claimed Ice Mafia tipping off OneElephant and IFLY got lynched which spelled doom for the Fire Mafia who had previously been in such an absolutely commanding position at the start of the DP. The slips of the last Day Phase proved enormously costly for them.

The Ice Mafia after Logic's death was a one-man team until a few hours ago. OneElephant laid low enough to not be killed, chose his kills perfectly, and looked town enough to not get lynched. He posted decent analysis, fooled all, and took his team to second place after only the lyncher. Logic was kind to help him drive home the win in the final few hours of the last Day Phase.

Granted, town was unlucky that there were no cross-kills. However, I put in a lot of townies for precisely this reason - so that even without cross-kills, they could win. As it was, town failed to lynch a single mafia until DP5 which was the primary reason that their fate was not in their hands that DP.

Some townies did do a remarkable job however. Drafterman and FT were the town leaders and made sure to keep activity going and acted in a pro-town manner. Although the conflation of the "resolute stance" issue with some other issue had me laughing.

Overall, I had fun modding this game. Well done TV and Ice Mafia. Good try Fire Mafia and Town. Feel free to leave comments. I especially want to know if you saw the abundance of vanilla townies and lack of good investigative roles as more enjoyable or less. Would you be more interested in playing my next game if I structured it in a similar (mafiascum style) fashion or in the more traditional DDO fashion (which mafiawiki would refer to as "role-madness" games).

To all, thanks for playing and making this game a fun one.
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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11/17/2012 9:28:34 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
This was an interestingly designed game, though I think town is woefully underpowered. I don't think the cops should be macho, nor do I think the mafias should have lawyers. Since the doc can only protect one person, there can't be a follow the doc strategy.
drafterman
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11/17/2012 9:32:39 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I also lied, there were a couple scenarios that town could have come out on top, though they were unlikely.

In any event, I apologize for my poor play, though I don't think I'm entirely at fault.
Hardcore.Pwnography
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11/17/2012 9:33:50 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I liked the idea of two equal different mafia. I just wish this game could have been hosted at a different time when I could have been more involved in the game.
tvellalott
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11/17/2012 9:36:39 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
WHAAAAAAAAAAAAT?!?! 1E was Ice Mafia?! medic fake claimed it?
Well, fvck me. I didn't expect that. Lol.

Good game all. I suspected IFLY was mafia ages before but I had to go after bossy. :/
"Caitlyn Jenner is an incredibly brave and stunningly beautiful woman."

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Hardcore.Pwnography
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11/17/2012 9:37:51 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Mafia games can still good even though there are lots of vanilla townies. It's just that the current meta is to load the game with power roles. I just think not a lot of people are accustomed to playing as vanilla, that's all.
tvellalott
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11/17/2012 9:41:06 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/17/2012 9:28:34 PM, drafterman wrote:
This was an interestingly designed game, though I think town is woefully underpowered. I don't think the cops should be macho, nor do I think the mafias should have lawyers. Since the doc can only protect one person, there can't be a follow the doc strategy.

I don't know. Look at how the game went. It was so close. Doesn't it follow that it was well balanced?
"Caitlyn Jenner is an incredibly brave and stunningly beautiful woman."

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drafterman
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11/17/2012 9:43:10 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/17/2012 9:41:06 PM, tvellalott wrote:
At 11/17/2012 9:28:34 PM, drafterman wrote:
This was an interestingly designed game, though I think town is woefully underpowered. I don't think the cops should be macho, nor do I think the mafias should have lawyers. Since the doc can only protect one person, there can't be a follow the doc strategy.

I don't know. Look at how the game went. It was so close. Doesn't it follow that it was well balanced?

It was close between the scum parties. At no point was town ever really in a position to contest against them.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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11/17/2012 9:49:13 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/17/2012 9:43:10 PM, drafterman wrote:
At 11/17/2012 9:41:06 PM, tvellalott wrote:
At 11/17/2012 9:28:34 PM, drafterman wrote:
This was an interestingly designed game, though I think town is woefully underpowered. I don't think the cops should be macho, nor do I think the mafias should have lawyers. Since the doc can only protect one person, there can't be a follow the doc strategy.

I don't know. Look at how the game went. It was so close. Doesn't it follow that it was well balanced?

It was close between the scum parties. At no point was town ever really in a position to contest against them.

But that was only after 3 mislynches and a no lynch which happenned after an 8-day DP. Before DP5, town did have a chance. Besides, if town hadn't lynched the lyncher's target, they would have been in a better position. And if FT weren't lynched, town could potentially have won. At any point in the game after DP1, if OneE was lynched, it would have all but assured a town victory considering there would only be two mafia left.
drafterman
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11/17/2012 10:08:18 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/17/2012 9:49:13 PM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
At 11/17/2012 9:43:10 PM, drafterman wrote:
At 11/17/2012 9:41:06 PM, tvellalott wrote:
At 11/17/2012 9:28:34 PM, drafterman wrote:
This was an interestingly designed game, though I think town is woefully underpowered. I don't think the cops should be macho, nor do I think the mafias should have lawyers. Since the doc can only protect one person, there can't be a follow the doc strategy.

I don't know. Look at how the game went. It was so close. Doesn't it follow that it was well balanced?

It was close between the scum parties. At no point was town ever really in a position to contest against them.

But that was only after 3 mislynches and a no lynch which happenned after an 8-day DP. Before DP5, town did have a chance. Besides, if town hadn't lynched the lyncher's target, they would have been in a better position. And if FT weren't lynched, town could potentially have won. At any point in the game after DP1, if OneE was lynched, it would have all but assured a town victory considering there would only be two mafia left.

I disagree. Other than IFLYs good shot, I don't think town stood a chance in this scenario. Neither results nor behavioral analysis is reliable. I'd say 9 times out of 10, Town loses this game.

It's fine to say "what if," but you have to look at the reasons. Town had nothing to go on, and there really isn't anything we can look back on and say we should have acted differently. So, while you can say we would have won the game if we didn't mislynch and lynched mafia instead, I question on what basis we would have lynched anyone else. We, essentially, random lynched.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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11/17/2012 10:21:52 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
The basis would have been behavioral analysis. Town wins games on mafiascum purely on behavioral analysis. There are games which are near vanilla where there are no town power roles except perhaps a cop and doc. I tried to use that idea on ddo. Lynches on mafiascum are never random. They are always based on extensive analysis of behavior and town frequently lynches scum on Day1 itself based on nothing but behavioral analysis.

You should really try mafiascum sometime Drafter. It is a lot of fun. Sign up for a game with me.

As for what you could done differently; Logic's post had a ton of inside information about OneElephant:

At 10/27/2012 4:40:57 PM, Logic_on_rails wrote:
Well, this ought to be like a beginners first game! We'll have a lot of vanilla claims I'm guessing.

Just to begin of course, we have absolutely no leads whatsoever now. We have no way to determine OneElephant's affiliation - he might be Mafia using a vanilla fake claim, a Mafioso just claiming vanilla hoping to get lucky, or an actual town vanilla or a miller! Yes, a clear position.

The bolded was in fact precisely what happened. But how did Logic know this? Besides why would he guess that of all things that were possible, OneElephant was a mafioso using a vanilla townie fake-claim? It seemed somewhat contrived to me but maybe it is just because I already knew as a mod.

OneElephant also seemed really self-conscious about the remaining Ice Mafia member DP2:

At 10/29/2012 7:09:28 PM, OneElephant wrote:
Gotta say, IFLY shot well.

They were both very flip floppy and opportunistic with their votes. Plus if we go by mod psychology, one of the ice mafia was a pro, so it's reasonable to say that (I'm not sure how F-16 chooses to balance his games) the remaining ice mafioso may be a newer player. Of course, I realize that may implicate me as well.

as you can see from the bolded. You could say this was easy from a mod POV but then again, there were a bunch of subtle clues.

Between IFLY and Medic, they distanced themselves considerably and FOSsed each other for no reason. Medic buddied FT by attacking you (Drafter) as soon as you made a case agaisnt FT. This on mafiascum is a very useful strategy as scum. If you are the aggressor, it makes you look better in interactions with a townie. Between you and Medic, you had your hands full with FT and Medic knew that attacking you would probably not result in great consequences for him because you were so busy with someone else. His attack on you was very opportune. I saw such a strategy first-hand on mafiascum in a game where I was playing.

So, sure, you can say the game was tough but if you really were "random" lynching, you were doing it wrong.
Logic_on_rails
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11/17/2012 10:25:46 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I didn't follow this game closely after my death, but I did return a bit for the final DP (F-16 told me not to go through with a certain strategy involving me replacing OneElephant...) , so I'll talk a little.

With regard to my DP 1 death there's 2 things - 1, it was a stroke of genius on IFLY's part to kill me, 2, there are very, very clear double standards in judging scum. On IFLY's kill choice, it was inspired to say the least. I felt I'd played fairly pro-town (my belief in what RVS did was 100% true and real) , and FT (as well as others) believed I was town looking. There was only 1 person who suspected me, and he happened to be the vengeful townie... On 2, I got very irritated DP 1 that I was suspected in spite of posting analysis. Comments like "Somebody who analyzes things as much as him" really irritated me, especially since many people on IFLY's lynch provided no reasoning (ie. Medic, "Looks like the majority favors a lynch so...") at all! So, in hindsight I'm still convinced that my play wasn't atrocious, even if not brilliant. A sharp call by IFLY though - as with A Not So Quaint town he played well and has demonstrated himself to be quite the capable player in recent times.

I'm also going to echo those remarks about the divide. It's especially evident in that 8 straight townie deaths occurred... Although, I think this does raise the point that unless some scum party kills another scum party at some point town have an extremely difficult task. Adding a second scum team is like adding a serial killer, and most people dislike 3rd parties on DDO in the current environment (although I like them in some cases) , so...

On DP 5, it was pretty crazy I must say. A den of liars I'd say. The only thing we were fairly sure of was that Medic was Fire Mafia, but we couldn't force a lynch on him for various reasons, such as ensuring a loss for Ice Mafia. OneElephant did a fine job to stay under the radar all game.

Thanks to F-16 for running this game, even if I bowed out early. As for future games, I think you've got a false dichotomy between this and role madness. This game was I think slightly too dry with regard to roles - we got a fascinating last DP, but we got a lot of mislynches via no power roles. I don't recommend role madness though - I always use vanillas, negative utility roles (in effect vanilla) or plain lies (deputy tracker...) to mitigate elements of role madness. If need be, you could just have say, 7 roles in a 14 -player game. That's not role madness. Role madness developed at the time where moderators started giving everybody an active role, which has it's merits in promoting activity as you saw. Of course, I'm all for supporting the upper echelon for the rest...

A unique game for me at least - I don't play on Mafiascum or EpicMafia.
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Logic_on_rails
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11/17/2012 10:29:44 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Eh, I'm going to have to support Drafter a bit here F-16. That quoted post of mine would display inside information, except that I covered the possibility from a Mafia and town perspective, and made an overall analysis of the game. It meant that I was making a comment on the veracity of any deductions made. While it had inside knowledge, it was, I feel, a very minimal amount, and certainly not enough to lynch over!

Although, I wouldn't have gone about random lynching; probably semi-random this game.
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But we"ll do more, Sempronius, we"ll deserve it
bossyburrito
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11/18/2012 12:40:22 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
I have to stop lynching FT for being crazy in his reaction tests.

GG all. It was fun.
#UnbanTheMadman

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drafterman
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11/18/2012 12:00:04 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/17/2012 10:21:52 PM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
The basis would have been behavioral analysis. Town wins games on mafiascum purely on behavioral analysis. There are games which are near vanilla where there are no town power roles except perhaps a cop and doc. I tried to use that idea on ddo. Lynches on mafiascum are never random. They are always based on extensive analysis of behavior and town frequently lynches scum on Day1 itself based on nothing but behavioral analysis.

You should really try mafiascum sometime Drafter. It is a lot of fun. Sign up for a game with me.

Agreed, but the type of behavioral analysis required for this game is sufficiently alien from normal games as to be inaccessible. In a normal game Town usually doesn't have to fake claim and, for the most part, can and should be honest. Mafia has to lie and has to look pro town without actually being pro town. Scum hunting largely involves people are are being dishonest or otherwise disingenuine.

All of that is out for this game. All non-vanilla roles have to fake claim and scum can legitimately act pro town by hunting the other scum faction. Thus Town is put into a position where they have to act dishonest, whereas scum is put in a position where they don't have to be as dishonest as they normally would. It brings Town and Scum behavior so close in alignment as to be nearly indistinguishable.


As for what you could done differently; Logic's post had a ton of inside information about OneElephant:

At 10/27/2012 4:40:57 PM, Logic_on_rails wrote:
Well, this ought to be like a beginners first game! We'll have a lot of vanilla claims I'm guessing.

Just to begin of course, we have absolutely no leads whatsoever now. We have no way to determine OneElephant's affiliation - he might be Mafia using a vanilla fake claim, a Mafioso just claiming vanilla hoping to get lucky, or an actual town vanilla or a miller! Yes, a clear position.

The bolded was in fact precisely what happened. But how did Logic know this? Besides why would he guess that of all things that were possible, OneElephant was a mafioso using a vanilla townie fake-claim? It seemed somewhat contrived to me but maybe it is just because I already knew as a mod.

Eh? How is that inside knowledge? You explicitly said you'd be giving mafia claims they could safely fake. Furthermore, we already, as a whole, came to the conclusion that everyone will just claim vanilla, Town and Scum alike. Nothing there isn't anything either had already concluded or wasn't provided by you to everyone.


OneElephant also seemed really self-conscious about the remaining Ice Mafia member DP2:

At 10/29/2012 7:09:28 PM, OneElephant wrote:
Gotta say, IFLY shot well.

They were both very flip floppy and opportunistic with their votes. Plus if we go by mod psychology, one of the ice mafia was a pro, so it's reasonable to say that (I'm not sure how F-16 chooses to balance his games) the remaining ice mafioso may be a newer player. Of course, I realize that may implicate me as well.

as you can see from the bolded. You could say this was easy from a mod POV but then again, there were a bunch of subtle clues.

Maybe, but I tend to gloss over, and ignore, any statements pertaining to mod psych, if only for the fact that mods tend to deliberately go against their own tenancies to mess with town. I don't see how this statement could have led to suspicion enough to lynch him. Yes, I understand on mafiascum that stuff like this can be built up, but I doubt that this statement would have had the same effect here.


Between IFLY and Medic, they distanced themselves considerably and FOSsed each other for no reason. Medic buddied FT by attacking you (Drafter) as soon as you made a case agaisnt FT. This on mafiascum is a very useful strategy as scum. If you are the aggressor, it makes you look better in interactions with a townie. Between you and Medic, you had your hands full with FT and Medic knew that attacking you would probably not result in great consequences for him because you were so busy with someone else. His attack on you was very opportune. I saw such a strategy first-hand on mafiascum in a game where I was playing.

Yes, and I began to suspect medic, but I also thought he could have just been derpy as well. On DP2, I did call out OneE, FT, and TV out as being scum, and was wrong only about FT, but FT was the only one I thought I had an actual case against beyond mere suspicion. I also considered him the greater threat due to activity. So, it isn't as much as behavioral analysis being absent, but it doing as much harm as good.


So, sure, you can say the game was tough but if you really were "random" lynching, you were doing it wrong.

What I meant was that our efforts were indistinguishable from random lynching because the cues we would normally use to analyze behavior could not avail us in this game.
medic0506
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11/18/2012 5:19:04 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Good game everyone and congrats to TV. Sorry Drafter but 1E had me adequately confused about which of you was actually ice mafia.

I didn't think this game was going to be all that fun but it did turn out to be very enjoyable, though I don't usually like the beginning of any game. It was an interesting change of pace from the norm, and I think Falcon deserves accolades for design and balance. Thanks.

We were in the catbird seat for most of the game until the beginning of the last dp. After TV and Drafter claimed I suddenly realized, wow this really sucks balls, we're busted. We had shot TV so that we could kill him the following night, but that ended up hurting us badly since there was no following night. I claimed ice mafia and was hoping that 1E would read between the lines in the ending scenarios I posted, and agree to helping us lynch TV, but that never panned out. When he said he was town, I was lost. I thought maybe Drafter was ice mafia doing the same thing I was doing, but couldn't change his claim. Oh well, it was still a fun game.
tvellalott
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11/18/2012 7:13:41 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/18/2012 5:19:04 PM, medic0506 wrote:
Good game everyone and congrats to TV. Sorry Drafter but 1E had me adequately confused about which of you was actually ice mafia.

I didn't think this game was going to be all that fun but it did turn out to be very enjoyable, though I don't usually like the beginning of any game. It was an interesting change of pace from the norm, and I think Falcon deserves accolades for design and balance. Thanks.

We were in the catbird seat for most of the game until the beginning of the last dp. After TV and Drafter claimed I suddenly realized, wow this really sucks balls, we're busted. We had shot TV so that we could kill him the following night, but that ended up hurting us badly since there was no following night. I claimed ice mafia and was hoping that 1E would read between the lines in the ending scenarios I posted, and agree to helping us lynch TV, but that never panned out. When he said he was town, I was lost. I thought maybe Drafter was ice mafia doing the same thing I was doing, but couldn't change his claim. Oh well, it was still a fun game.

You claiming Ice Mafia totally threw me. It literally didn't occur to me that you and 1E were both lying.
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IFLYHIGH
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11/19/2012 11:25:17 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
GG everyone.

I was soooo close to killing Zaradi/Mestari/TV(2). I literally changed my mind at the last second and decided to kill Logic instead. And tbh, I actually felt I had found an inconsistency in TV's behavior DP4. I don't know why people decided to lynch him instead of Bossy who is notorious for acting scummy. If I had more time, I would have tried harder to lynch him, though it probably wouldn't have gotten anywhere. OneE played well, and I was convinced throughout the entire game until DP5 that he was town. I will obviously need to look for different scum tells when analyzing OneE's behavior. Drafter and FT's tunneling was good since it took attention off of me and Medic, but bad because it became impossible to lynch anybody else- something even the fire mafia desperately needed to do. Though I will admit a had a scum read on FT until he claimed fire cop.

As for the game itself, I enjoyed using behavioral analysis as the primary tool for finding scum. Mafia is a psychology game, and behavioral analysis should have the biggest factor in finding scum. It's much more enjoyable imo than relying on NA's. Although I can see some points Drafter makes. I agree there shouldn't have been mafia lawyers and that dual scum factions, while interesting to say the least, interfered with behavioral analysis quite a bit. That's definitely not a good thing in a game where behavioral analysis was the only thing town had. Town's only advantage was that they had three confirmable roles- two of which were killed on NP1 and one of which was hilariously lynched. That's partly bad luck and partly avoidable bad play.

I would actually like to see an influx of vanilla roles here on DDO, though I know I'm part of the minority. DDO's meta would also have to change slightly since people have become so accustomed to relying on power roles-something I don't see happening anytime soon. Oh well, people can dream can't they?

Thanks to F-16 for modding and everyone else for making the game enjoyable.
tvellalott
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11/19/2012 4:26:34 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/19/2012 11:25:17 AM, IFLYHIGH wrote:
I was soooo close to killing Zaradi/Mestari/TV(2). I literally changed my mind at the last second and decided to kill Logic instead. And tbh, I actually felt I had found an inconsistency in TV's behavior DP4.

Sure you did. ;)
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