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Is lynching D1 good?

FourTrouble
Posts: 12,757
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1/21/2013 5:51:30 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
So in drafter's game current game I felt like making a post in defense of lynching D1 but felt maybe I shouldn't clog up the game with a theory discussion. I honestly don't understand the obsession with no lynching on D1. If you think about it, when there are an odd number of players, lynching on D1 gives town an extra mislynch. And if there are an even number of players, it's still better to lynch D1 because that is the way towns kill scum, lynching.

Why should town give up an opportunity to kill scum? Every lynch comes with the risk of killing a townie. What I don't understand is why towns give a free pass to scum on D1. When I'm mafia, I'm always at ease when the day ends a none of my teammates (or myself) have been lynched. Imagine now that as mafia you have to worry about being lynched D1. Suddenly, you have to work harder to avoid getting caught. That reason alone (largely psychological) is enough to advocate normalizing D1 lynches, my opinion.

The usual reason people give to no lynch is because they say there is no information. This is not entirely true. By taking stances, you can generate discussion and build wagons. As wagons build, you can analyze who supports the lynch and who is avoiding it. You can analyze the reasoning people give, and try figuring out whether it has scum-motivations. At some point, enough players build a consensus and you lynch someone.

Sure, it may be somewhat random and inaccurate but let's get real: even with investigative results, a D2 lynch is often just as random and inaccurate as a D1 lynch. On the other hand, with a D1 lynch and flip, you can really start analyzing behaviors and motivations. You can look for people who knew more than they should have about the flip, ask yourself if anyone was bussing, etc.

Towns gain so much from a D1 lynch, there just seems to be literally no reason not to do it.
Buddamoose
Posts: 19,448
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1/21/2013 5:56:33 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
I agree, which is why i've been pushing it in games ;)
"Reality is an illusion created due to a lack of alcohol"
-Airmax1227

"You were the moon all this time, and he was always there to make you shine."

"Was he the sun?"

"No honey, he was the darkness"

-Kazekirion
Mestari
Posts: 4,656
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1/21/2013 6:02:43 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
I agree. No lynching is not allowed in my Supernatural Apocalypse game.
Rules of Mafia

1. Mestari is never third party.
2. If Mestari claims an intricate and page long TP role, he's telling the truth.
3. Mestari always jointly wins with the town.
3b. If he doesn't he's mafia.
3c. If he was mafia you wouldn't suspect him in the first place.
4. If you lynch Mestari you will lose because he will be the third party Doctor or some other townie power role.
5. DP1 lynches are good.
6. The answer is always no.
Buddamoose
Posts: 19,448
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1/21/2013 6:11:54 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/21/2013 6:02:43 PM, Mestari wrote:
I agree. No lynching is not allowed in my Supernatural Apocalypse game.

In that case i want to sign up immediately :D
"Reality is an illusion created due to a lack of alcohol"
-Airmax1227

"You were the moon all this time, and he was always there to make you shine."

"Was he the sun?"

"No honey, he was the darkness"

-Kazekirion
Mestari
Posts: 4,656
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1/21/2013 6:26:41 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/21/2013 6:18:00 PM, drafterman wrote:
http://debate.org...

What would be interesting to note is the percentage of successful DP2 lynches following a DP1 VTNL compared to following a DP1 VTL, regardless of the result of the DP1 VTL. It would also be nice to know the percentage of town wins reference each scenario.
Rules of Mafia

1. Mestari is never third party.
2. If Mestari claims an intricate and page long TP role, he's telling the truth.
3. Mestari always jointly wins with the town.
3b. If he doesn't he's mafia.
3c. If he was mafia you wouldn't suspect him in the first place.
4. If you lynch Mestari you will lose because he will be the third party Doctor or some other townie power role.
5. DP1 lynches are good.
6. The answer is always no.
Danielle
Posts: 21,330
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1/21/2013 6:27:45 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
This has been debated before and the notion of lynching on DP1 has always won. It is indeed practical to do so, especially if there are an odd number of townies. I'm sure if you search, official debates have been done on it as well. I came up with the "noob rule" (and the reason I always want to clarify that is because it has been completely misrepresented and misused IMO so I want to justify why I used it in the fist place) based on the idea that we should lynch on DP1.

Before the noob rule, SOP was for some random player to pick someone to pressure at random via a random number generator. This always seemed dumb to me because you can't really prove, even with a screen shot as was SOP, that the # you picked happened to be the first one you used the RNG. In other words if the player who posted the RNG either had their number picked or was mafia, they would obviously not show the first number that went through the RNG if it was inconvenient. So I never understood why people used to do this.

Back in the day, mods also used to give the better, more active players the best roles. Now the mods either do it at random or know to switch it up. But back then, to choose a good player "at random" to pressure seemed like a waste; you'd likely out an important role, or get an active player killed.

I've justified pressuring "noobs" first so many times. For one, you have no idea if they're retarded or scummy. For another, many tend to be inactive (which can be construed as scummy and is annoying). Plus, these players tend to be kind of crappy and not really know how to use their roles. As a mod I've cringed at how bad new players have been at choosing who to track, watch, etc., so if this townie role is outed, they can either be recruited to talk to a more experienced townie (eg. to the masons) or the town can help them figure out how to use their role.

These days, so many players are unfamiliar to me that I'm not sure how the noob rule would apply. More important to me would be to go after players who tend to go inactive. After playing in 1 game recently and modding, I have seen that inactivity is the #1 most annoying, frustrating and game-ruining thing about mafia. This is why I favor Quickfire Mafia games which I introduced to the site a few years ago. When it works and people actually come online, it can be really good. I am inclined to not play mafia again unless it's one of those "elite" games where everyone asked to play is known to be active. Otherwise to be penalized by death or suspicion just because 90% of the players aren't posting is really frustrating and something I don't have the patience for.

TLDR: Vote to lynch a likely inactive on DP1 (people who have a history of going inactive). That way even if they do go inactive, you can know their role beforehand instead of waiting for them if/when they're pressured and don't show up and thereby hold up the entire game... or if you can't gauge their suspicion due to inactivity later.

I WOULD PROCEED WITH A LYNCH ONLY IF WE PRESSURED LIKE 3+ PEOPLE AND THEY ALL SEEMED INNOCENT. OTHERWISE, PICK THE SCUMMIEST SOUNDING.
President of DDO
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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1/21/2013 6:28:59 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/21/2013 6:26:41 PM, Mestari wrote:
At 1/21/2013 6:18:00 PM, drafterman wrote:
http://debate.org...

What would be interesting to note is the percentage of successful DP2 lynches following a DP1 VTNL compared to following a DP1 VTL, regardless of the result of the DP1 VTL. It would also be nice to know the percentage of town wins reference each scenario.

I agree with this. Going through past games gives me a headache.

We really BADLY need a game archive of every game played within the last two years or so with links to every day phase. It is such a pain trying to follow old games because different day phases are on different pages and google search isn't perfect.
TUF
Posts: 21,309
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1/21/2013 6:38:50 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
No opinion, but I am interested as well. I think most people just roll with VTNL's because they are SOP.

As I stated earlier in drafters game though, I do see how they can be helpful. But That's not to say it should be like that every time.

I would say there is no need to lynch if you don't have to. If there is someone who is pretty scummy, scummy enough to lynch, then sure why not?
"I've got to go and grab a shirt" ~ Airmax1227
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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1/21/2013 6:42:55 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
@ Danielle, I don't think you got lynched in TV's game for being ACTIVE. There were a ton of reasons for it (one of the biggest was sheer POE i.e. a bunch of other players couldn't possibly be mafia so it had to be you, TUF, or Chicken). The analysis that you did provide was flawed going all the way back to DP1 where you assume Tvellalott was lying when he said he randomized the roles and insisting that an experienced player was scum when you, me, Drafter, Spinko, and Logic were all town. More on DP2 and further on. Moreover, you spent more time discrediting, mocking, and OMGUSing rather than actually persuading your accusers that you were town. For instance, compare how I responded to Drafter's and your suspicion of me DP1 and DP2 with your response to my suspicion of you. Anyways, now I know this is how you play as town so I am wiser now as to your playstyle which should help in future games. But honestly, it is just going to be "Danielle mocks and OMGUSses people as town so we probably shouldn't take that as a scumtell."
Noumena
Posts: 6,047
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1/21/2013 10:00:15 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
The empirics seem to say the opposite of what I would think. In games (from the last six months- I'm not magic) where there was a Dp1 lynch, scum got hit 2 out of seven times.

This isn't particularly re-assuring and I still have to figure out the average for Dp2->onwards lynches but the interesting part is the overall win average. In games with a Dp1 lynch, town won 1/6 times (one of the games didn't end) whereas in games with an NL Dp1, town won only 3/15 times. So the win rate ranges from 17% for town to around 20%. Not much of a difference overall it would appear.

Still I need to do some more research on the matter. If the evidence comes up in opposition to Dp1 lynches I'll take a debate with you but if not, I don't want to defend a losing position.

Who knows, maybe I've been wrong this whole time.
: At 5/13/2014 7:05:20 PM, Crescendo wrote:
: The difference is that the gay movement is currently pushing their will on Churches, as shown in the link to gay marriage in Denmark. Meanwhile, the Inquisition ended several centuries ago.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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1/21/2013 10:01:16 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/21/2013 10:00:15 PM, Noumena wrote:
The empirics seem to say the opposite of what I would think. In games (from the last six months- I'm not magic) where there was a Dp1 lynch, scum got hit 2 out of seven times.

This isn't particularly re-assuring and I still have to figure out the average for Dp2->onwards lynches but the interesting part is the overall win average. In games with a Dp1 lynch, town won 1/6 times (one of the games didn't end) whereas in games with an NL Dp1, town won only 3/15 times. So the win rate ranges from 17% for town to around 20%. Not much of a difference overall it would appear.

Still I need to do some more research on the matter. If the evidence comes up in opposition to Dp1 lynches I'll take a debate with you but if not, I don't want to defend a losing position.

Who knows, maybe I've been wrong this whole time.

Can you post examples of the games that you referenced?
Noumena
Posts: 6,047
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1/21/2013 10:06:55 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/21/2013 10:01:16 PM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
At 1/21/2013 10:00:15 PM, Noumena wrote:
The empirics seem to say the opposite of what I would think. In games (from the last six months- I'm not magic) where there was a Dp1 lynch, scum got hit 2 out of seven times.

This isn't particularly re-assuring and I still have to figure out the average for Dp2->onwards lynches but the interesting part is the overall win average. In games with a Dp1 lynch, town won 1/6 times (one of the games didn't end) whereas in games with an NL Dp1, town won only 3/15 times. So the win rate ranges from 17% for town to around 20%. Not much of a difference overall it would appear.

Still I need to do some more research on the matter. If the evidence comes up in opposition to Dp1 lynches I'll take a debate with you but if not, I don't want to defend a losing position.

Who knows, maybe I've been wrong this whole time.

Can you post examples of the games that you referenced?

Games with Dp1 lynches:

Presidents v Dictators- lynched Blackhawk (mafia)- game didn't finish
Christmas- lynched Ishall (town)- mafia won
Fire and Ice- lynched IFLY (town)- survivor won
Stranded!- lynched Greyparrot (town)- mafia won
Redwall- lynched Bluesteel (town)- survivor won
Slaves of Time- lynched Bossy (mafia)- town won
Not so Quaint Town- lynched Ft (town)- mafia won

Games that went NL:

Magicians
American Politics
EpicDDO
Colony
Legend of Korra
Celebrities
Philosophers (I)
Electronic Devices
ATLA
LOTR
One King
DDO Mafia
The Mentalist
Action Shows
Horror
: At 5/13/2014 7:05:20 PM, Crescendo wrote:
: The difference is that the gay movement is currently pushing their will on Churches, as shown in the link to gay marriage in Denmark. Meanwhile, the Inquisition ended several centuries ago.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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1/21/2013 10:11:57 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
You missed this: http://debate.org...

but that was beginner's game. You also missed Solar System mafia. Drafterman (mafia) was lynched DP1 and mafia won. Also, President's vs Dictators, there was really no competition. By DP3, town had killed 3 out of the 4 mafia as well as the survivor with only 2 townies dead and the mod declared it a town win.
Mestari
Posts: 4,656
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1/21/2013 10:12:05 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/21/2013 10:06:55 PM, Noumena wrote:
Games with Dp1 lynches:

Presidents v Dictators- lynched Blackhawk (mafia)- game didn't finish
Christmas- lynched Ishall (town)- mafia won
Fire and Ice- lynched IFLY (town)- survivor won
Stranded!- lynched Greyparrot (town)- mafia won
Redwall- lynched Bluesteel (town)- survivor won

Bluesteel died as a gambit CC by a mafia member. I don't really think this counts. Also, the cult tied the mafia for the win.

Slaves of Time- lynched Bossy (mafia)- town won
Not so Quaint Town- lynched Ft (town)- mafia won

Games that went NL:

Magicians
American Politics
EpicDDO
Colony
Legend of Korra
Celebrities
Philosophers (I)
Electronic Devices
ATLA
LOTR
One King
DDO Mafia
The Mentalist
Action Shows
Horror
Rules of Mafia

1. Mestari is never third party.
2. If Mestari claims an intricate and page long TP role, he's telling the truth.
3. Mestari always jointly wins with the town.
3b. If he doesn't he's mafia.
3c. If he was mafia you wouldn't suspect him in the first place.
4. If you lynch Mestari you will lose because he will be the third party Doctor or some other townie power role.
5. DP1 lynches are good.
6. The answer is always no.
Noumena
Posts: 6,047
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1/21/2013 10:17:36 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/21/2013 10:11:57 PM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
You missed this: http://debate.org...

but that was beginner's game. You also missed Solar System mafia. Drafterman (mafia) was lynched DP1 and mafia won. Also, President's vs Dictators, there was really no competition. By DP3, town had killed 3 out of the 4 mafia as well as the survivor with only 2 townies dead and the mod declared it a town win.

I purposely skipped Beginners Games. Also, I said my analysis only extends six months. Wasn't Solar System over a year ago?
: At 5/13/2014 7:05:20 PM, Crescendo wrote:
: The difference is that the gay movement is currently pushing their will on Churches, as shown in the link to gay marriage in Denmark. Meanwhile, the Inquisition ended several centuries ago.
Buddamoose
Posts: 19,448
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1/21/2013 10:34:40 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
I honestly think most of the failed success of town winning in games following DP1 lynched can be attributed to lack of experience and knowledge on how to base reads off that lynch. At least thats my opinion.

I'll even admit, that christmas mafia was one of my first true games with a DP1 lynch, and my lack of experience with it led me to town read Ore_Ele based off Ishall's lynch and the reasoning behind it. Causing him to skate by unfos'd the entire game.... Lesson learned

Plus Ore_Ele really acted friendly towards me throughout and really fooled me. Credit to him for that
"Reality is an illusion created due to a lack of alcohol"
-Airmax1227

"You were the moon all this time, and he was always there to make you shine."

"Was he the sun?"

"No honey, he was the darkness"

-Kazekirion
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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1/21/2013 10:37:14 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/21/2013 10:34:40 PM, Buddamoose wrote:
I honestly think most of the failed success of town winning in games following DP1 lynched can be attributed to lack of experience and knowledge on how to base reads off that lynch. At least thats my opinion.

I'll even admit, that christmas mafia was one of my first true games with a DP1 lynch, and my lack of experience with it led me to town read Ore_Ele based off Ishall's lynch and the reasoning behind it. Causing him to skate by unfos'd the entire game.... Lesson learned

Plus Ore_Ele really acted friendly towards me throughout and really fooled me. Credit to him for that

Really I should read through that.

In my experience, the worst failed lynch for me was pushing FT's lynch DP1 of Logic's Not so Quaint town game where he flipped town, replaced a mafia member and completely fooled me by distancing from his fellow mafia member BlackVoid.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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1/21/2013 10:40:40 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
And oddly enough, the successful ones were where I bandwagoned onto somebody's else's analysis. FT was pushing for BH's lynch in Presidents vs Dictators and Johnny was pushing for your lynch in that beginner's game.
Buddamoose
Posts: 19,448
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1/21/2013 10:55:19 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Yeah, the site in general is still stuck on "NL DP1" mode. So of course there will be a learning curve, myself included. I do believe that after time passes that lynching DP1 will be moreso increasingly succesful in leading to town wins in games, but actual successful DP1/DP2(even 3) lynches. With the absence of investigative results to aid of course.
"Reality is an illusion created due to a lack of alcohol"
-Airmax1227

"You were the moon all this time, and he was always there to make you shine."

"Was he the sun?"

"No honey, he was the darkness"

-Kazekirion
Bull_Diesel
Posts: 1,955
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1/22/2013 4:49:52 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/21/2013 5:52:45 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
I'd be willing to debate any of the Con D1-lynch people on this, if anyone is interested.

I was thinking the same thing. I said basically everything you said in your OP here in the game. I really think it's worth the risk even if you kill a townie 98% of the time. I think that possibility of being lynched early keeps mafia and TP honest and really encourages people to start playing the game. Why not just start with a round of NP actions and no DP discussion at all if you don't plan to lynch. At least then you've got a bunch of dead people and people have a reason to start throwing out tons of claims.

I really really disagree with VTNL in general. I think it's just giving mafia 1 guaranteed NP. no need to help them anymore than is necessary.
Bull_Diesel
Posts: 1,955
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1/22/2013 4:51:43 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/21/2013 6:26:41 PM, Mestari wrote:
At 1/21/2013 6:18:00 PM, drafterman wrote:
http://debate.org...

What would be interesting to note is the percentage of successful DP2 lynches following a DP1 VTNL compared to following a DP1 VTL, regardless of the result of the DP1 VTL. It would also be nice to know the percentage of town wins reference each scenario.

This
Bull_Diesel
Posts: 1,955
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1/22/2013 5:01:00 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/21/2013 10:06:55 PM, Noumena wrote:
At 1/21/2013 10:01:16 PM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
At 1/21/2013 10:00:15 PM, Noumena wrote:
The empirics seem to say the opposite of what I would think. In games (from the last six months- I'm not magic) where there was a Dp1 lynch, scum got hit 2 out of seven times.

This isn't particularly re-assuring and I still have to figure out the average for Dp2->onwards lynches but the interesting part is the overall win average. In games with a Dp1 lynch, town won 1/6 times (one of the games didn't end) whereas in games with an NL Dp1, town won only 3/15 times. So the win rate ranges from 17% for town to around 20%. Not much of a difference overall it would appear.

Still I need to do some more research on the matter. If the evidence comes up in opposition to Dp1 lynches I'll take a debate with you but if not, I don't want to defend a losing position.

Who knows, maybe I've been wrong this whole time.

Can you post examples of the games that you referenced?

Games with Dp1 lynches:

Presidents v Dictators- lynched Blackhawk (mafia)- game didn't finish
Christmas- lynched Ishall (town)- mafia won
Fire and Ice- lynched IFLY (town)- survivor won
Stranded!- lynched Greyparrot (town)- mafia won
Redwall- lynched Bluesteel (town)- survivor won
Slaves of Time- lynched Bossy (mafia)- town won
Not so Quaint Town- lynched Ft (town)- mafia won

Games that went NL:

Magicians
American Politics
EpicDDO
Colony
Legend of Korra
Celebrities
Philosophers (I)
Electronic Devices
ATLA
LOTR
One King
DDO Mafia
The Mentalist
Action Shows
Horror

I can't speak to the other games but TUF's christmas game IShall WANTED to be lynched because his role required it and gave him double voter if he got lynched early.

I can't find much evidence that Lynching him when he was intentionally trying to get lynched so he could fully utilize his role caused town to lose.
Noumena
Posts: 6,047
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1/23/2013 6:18:04 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
I did some research on the older games that Budda, F-49393, and I have been archiving. Dp1 lynching was a lot more common then (the first four games we archived all had Dp1 lynches) so I figure it would give us more information to go on, as opposed to like the five Dp1 lynches we've had in the last six months. Results:

10 out of the 25 games (roughly Animal Kingdom to Danielle's Classic Mafia, skipping a few either un-ended games [South Park] and mind-fvcks [Salem Witch]) ended up with a Dp1 lynch. They hit a mafioso 3/10 times, a TP 2/10 (1 of which was a jester), and hit town 5/10 times.

Outcomes of games with Dp1 lynches vs. NL's came out with similar results of my first post. Games with No Lynches, town won 4/15 times. Likewise, games with Dp1 lynches, town won 4/10 times. So the numbers actually go a little farther to support their effectiveness, 40% success (Dp1 lynch) vs. roughly 27% success (NL's).

Note that the town winning percentage for these 25 games overall was 56% for mafia, 36% for town, and less than 1% for TP's. So lynching Dp1 at least had a correlative connection with a higher town winning percentage. I would probably just ascribe it to a more aggressive town though since they only hit mafia a minority of the time.

I'm still evolving on my position on Dp1 lynches, but the numbers so far seem to support their installment. I'll have to look into rates of successful lynches for different Dp's though which is gon' be a pain in da arse.
: At 5/13/2014 7:05:20 PM, Crescendo wrote:
: The difference is that the gay movement is currently pushing their will on Churches, as shown in the link to gay marriage in Denmark. Meanwhile, the Inquisition ended several centuries ago.