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Madness in Delderra DP 2

Logic_on_rails
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2/8/2013 12:42:26 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
A man gazed over the greenery that glistened. Glistened under an eerie moonlight. Finally, straining his eyes, he could see what he was looking for. The man walked over to the spot casually, and suddenly it was as if the very...

During the night residents gathered fearing the worst after a day of bloodshed, but nary a sword was drawn. The residents of Delderra awoke to find all it's residents energetic and ready for action. Valerie was in a splendid mood - her keen detective work was saving lives.

And, on the note of our slain Francisco...

Bull_Diesel - Francisco Hobb - You're a bit of a thug - the muscle in the operation. You can either have 3 roleblocks or 1 role removal this game. The second you choose either course you will lose the option to choose the other. There is a final twist though - you can use 2 roleblocks on a single night if you wish to forgo the 3rd roleblock. You win with the Mafia.

Living Players

1. TUF
2. Danielle
3. Tulle
4. HCP
5. TV
6. Drafterman
7. FourTrouble
8. Maxx
9. Mestari
10. IFLY
11. F-16
12. Buddamoose
13. Ishall
14. Daytona

It takes 8 votes to lynch.
"Tis not in mortals to command success
But we"ll do more, Sempronius, we"ll deserve it
tvellalott
Posts: 10,864
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2/8/2013 1:08:51 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
I have nothing of use to add.
I'm still keen on lynching ishall, but ill wait and see if we have any results.
"Caitlyn Jenner is an incredibly brave and stunningly beautiful woman."

Muh threads
Using mafia tactics in real-life: http://www.debate.org...
6 years of DDO: http://www.debate.org...
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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2/8/2013 1:34:33 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
I think Logic tells us how many mafia there are in the OP:

10 people started off along with the man in the boutonniere. Technically this should make it 11 but I am guessing the man in Boutonniere is one of the 10 so that makes it 10. These would be the original mafia but with most of them dead, only the remaining mafia would be in the game.

The Man in the Manor seems to be a strong town power role.

1) "The man of the manor thrust his sword into the man"s body, and blood splayed the walls. The assailant was dead." - This is one dead guy.

2), 3), and 4) "Two men were closing in on the shout. The man of the manor glided along the railings, about to turn a corner. The man with the boutonniere clenched his fist as yet another scream pierced the air. One of his people, again. That was the 4th."

"I want 3 of them to go together in a group. You will go get my infra-red glasses from the car. I"m tired of this incompetence."
"3, but there are..."
"You know Francisco. He"ll work by himself."

This is the part that makes me think the man in the boutonniere is included in the 10 because with 4 dead, there will be 6 remaining including the Man in the Boutonniere and his companion. That leaves 4 more out of which 3 are going together and Francisco (Bull) works alone. This is what makes me think the Man in the Boutonniere is one of the 10. There is some evidence from the OP which seems to point to there being 10 people in addition to him. If more people could provide thoughts on this, that will be great. The reason it is important is that I think the OP not only mentions how many mafia there are but all their names as well.

5) and 6) Another man was charging right at him. Suddenly, a second assailant was on him, a knife in his hand. The second assailant launched a brutal thrust at the first assailant, and the man of the manor in turn slashed at the second assailant. Both attackers lay on the floor, moaning and writhing helplessly in blood.

7) The 3rd assailant cried out " he had the man of the manor. And then the assailant felt a sword pressed against his back. The deep voice from the tall man was simple in it"s instruction. "If you don"t move that knife right now you"re dead, friend."

The third assailant (Jaime) was still alive but captured by the deep voiced, tall man. Initial speculation makes me think it is one of the mafia members. Maybe the tall man was third party? Logic likes portraying third parties as townish. I can't see how he would fit though.

"Then Jaime, dazed on the ground, was slain with a single stroke."

8) Francisco: Alive at the end of the OP (Bull, lynched DP1)

9) "Companion": Alive at the end of the OP, unnamed.

10) Man with the Boutonniere: Alive at the end of the OP, unnamed.

I think there are 3 mafia total with a few third parties added into the mix. The Man with the Boutonniere is obviously the godfather. Francisco was the roleblocker. Companion could be anyone.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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2/8/2013 1:53:02 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/8/2013 1:08:51 AM, tvellalott wrote:
I have nothing of use to add.
I'm still keen on lynching ishall, but ill wait and see if we have any results.

Hey TV, target me tonight please.
tvellalott
Posts: 10,864
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2/8/2013 1:54:53 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/8/2013 1:53:02 AM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
At 2/8/2013 1:08:51 AM, tvellalott wrote:
I have nothing of use to add.
I'm still keen on lynching ishall, but ill wait and see if we have any results.

Hey TV, target me tonight please.

OK Granny. :P
"Caitlyn Jenner is an incredibly brave and stunningly beautiful woman."

Muh threads
Using mafia tactics in real-life: http://www.debate.org...
6 years of DDO: http://www.debate.org...
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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2/8/2013 2:44:36 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Bull has been kind enough to participate considerably in the DP and as such has given us a lot of information to work with. I'll summarize how Bull interacted with various players and extrapolate it by comparing it with his interactions with his buddies in the games where he was scum. His bussing of TUF is notable in SteamPunk although to some extent, there may be limitations considering TUF would have gained additional powers in that game if Bull was killed.

He pressures Maxx - the fact that sticks out to me is that he bothers to justify his pressure (he has no idea who that is). It doesn't seem like scum-scum interaction to me, so for now, I'll say Maxx is probably not mafia.

Budda of course claimed immediately which makes him likely town. The fact that Bull soft-cc'd him and flipped mafia pretty much serves to confirm him.

TV's initial post came off as townish as well. He gives hints about his role which would be a bad scum move to do so early and he also seems to know a bit about mafia being after certain characters.

HCP says he has 0 justification in his role PM. The way he comes out with it and contradicts TV makes me have a townread on him.

Regarding IShall, I buy his claim. After sleeping on it, the logical paradox doesn't really seem like much of anything. Basically, the fact that there is a paradox means that the theory I am putting forward would be that IShall did not get the role PM from Logic at all but is making it up. Yet, I don't see that IShall making up a role that is very similar to roles from Logic's previous games that he has never played - and that on DP1. It doesn't make sense. IShall is likely who he says he is.

Now comes the question: should we kill him? To win, town HAS to eliminate third parties. Sure, I guess town can have second place but that doesn't really feel fulfilling. So, if we keep IShall alive, eliminate the other third parties and mafia, then we (and IShall) can win first place over mafia and the other malicious third parties.

So, no. Let's not kill IShall. There is no point wasting a lynch when we could take a shot at lynching scum.

So far, we have 5 people: Maxx, TV, Budda, HCP, and IShall that are probably town/should not be lynched. Moving onto the remaining 8.

Drafterman is very likely town. He is pro-active and aggressive throughout the day phase questioning IShall on the details of his role and in general displaying the fluid thought-process and changes of reads as a townie does. He is slightly weaker townread of mine along with Maxx compared to the more obvious townreads.

FT's behavior is null. Persuing an HCP lead seems off to me because he isn't considering that HCP had just come out and contradicted TV which is a slam-dunk town move. His FOS on IFLY was weak as was his FOS on me. His FOS on Tulle was decent enough although he wasn't the one who pointed out that Tulle had been pro-third party before. Tulle's response seems townlike. Some parts of his behavior seems like town though so I'll have to wait and see.

TUF's reaction to IShall's claim was to believe it instantly and FOS TV for pushing his lynch. Seems a bit extreme. There was very little attempt at persuation - just a theory about what mafia might do and voting TV for it. Seeing the order of events, I find it scummy that TUF is ignoring TV's breadcrumbs and FOSsing TV. Gotta see more TUF meta to see where he defends townies and where he doesn't - or whether he only defends good townies.

So far:
Strong town reads: TV, Budda, HCP
Weak town reads: Maxx, drafter, IShall (I include him here for convenience)
Null reads: FT, IFLY
Scum reads: TUF

No comments yet: Tulle, Danielle, Mestari, Daytona.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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2/8/2013 2:53:40 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Dead
1) Bull_Diesel - Francisco - Flavored Roleblocker - MAFIA - Lynched DP1

Role Claims
1) Budda - Everett Molon - 1X Redirector, 1X Roleblocker
2) Ishall - Chevalier de Alfheim - Survivor until all 3P killed

Character Claims
3) Daytona - Naive Caroline
4) Tulle - Clive Welter*

No Claims
5) TUF
6) Danielle
7) HCP
8) TV
9) Drafterman
10) FourTrouble
11) Maxx
12) Mestari
13) IFLY
14) F-16

* Withheld stuff from the name, recieved info about other players.

(Btw, Tulle is town for sure so I'll add her to the town pile. I can't read Danielle well so I'll wait till we have more info so she is in the null pile. Mestari is inactive and null. Daytona - he could be another scum. I gotta get to bed so I'll post more tomorrow).
FourTrouble
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2/8/2013 6:23:32 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
maxx is definitely not mafia but he's also nowhere close to town yet. If there are multiple third-party players (as F-16 theorizes), maxx is a prime candidate to be one of those just on the basis of mod psychology (and yes, that kind of stuff applies in Logic's games). His behavior itself is totally null. So no, maxx doesn't go in the town pile.

HCP is also nowhere close to going in the town pile. The way he put his vote on ishall after it became clear Bull was scum (even though the wagon was still in its early stages, with only TV/myself/Budda calling for his lynch) was scummy as hell, and HCP's vote for Bull later was just as scummy. We can say he's null for now, and this is appropriate given HCP hates confirming anyone anyway.

Mestari and F-16 are probably scum.

VTL Mestari
Buddamoose
Posts: 19,450
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2/8/2013 7:01:55 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
I was honestly getting bus vibes, from the way Danielle voted for Bull to be honest.

Also, HcP's strong push at Ishall, based on Ishall's claim, has me believing he is prolly TP.

VTL Danielle

*Awaits huge omgus post* i've heard thats what happens to people who FOS Danielle...
"Reality is an illusion created due to a lack of alcohol"
-Airmax1227

"You were the moon all this time, and he was always there to make you shine."

"Was he the sun?"

"No honey, he was the darkness"

-Kazekirion
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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2/8/2013 7:13:41 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
As far as I'm aware, we never got Maxx' claim and he was the only person to VTNL last phase despite the building lynch Bull.

VTL Maxx
TUF
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2/8/2013 7:27:26 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Read f-16 s last post and agree with his analysis on mafia numbers. On the FOS you have on me, all I can really say is cross checking my behavior doesn't work as I don't have a meta. I try to act the same in every game regardless of affiliation.
"I've got to go and grab a shirt" ~ Airmax1227
FourTrouble
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2/8/2013 7:33:16 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/8/2013 7:27:26 AM, TUF wrote:
Read f-16 s last post and agree with his analysis on mafia numbers. On the FOS you have on me, all I can really say is cross checking my behavior doesn't work as I don't have a meta. I try to act the same in every game regardless of affiliation.

EVERYONE tries to act the same as scum. Is this supposed to be evidence to discourage F-16 from catching you on the basis of meta?
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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2/8/2013 11:39:13 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
I agree that Maxx is a potential candidate for having a third party role.

At 2/8/2013 6:23:32 AM, FourTrouble wrote:

HCP is also nowhere close to going in the town pile. The way he put his vote on ishall after it became clear Bull was scum (even though the wagon was still in its early stages, with only TV/myself/Budda calling for his lynch) was scummy as hell, and HCP's vote for Bull later was just as scummy. We can say he's null for now, and this is appropriate given HCP hates confirming anyone anyway.

How he voted is not as strong a tell as coming out and saying "your role has a justification? Mine doesn't." I've rarely if ever seen mafia do that and I've never seen HCP as mafia make such bold decisions as this one. The confidence with which he contradicts TV shows betrays that he subconsciously knows that his role is town because he is using HIS role as the basis of comparison towards all other roles. Scum often try to tailor their role to match with the town roles. If HCP was scum, I'd expect him to take notes from TV and come up with a role paraphrase in the structure that TV has described.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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2/8/2013 12:18:00 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
On second thoughts, this post from Bull makes me feel FT is non-mafia and Maxx is mafia. This is the SECOND time Bull says that he doesn't know who Maxx is. Could be potential distancing.

At 2/3/2013 9:35:56 PM, Bull_Diesel wrote:
At 2/3/2013 9:09:05 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
I would like to hear from the people who have not posted - particularly Mestari, Danielle, and Maxx.

I'm concerned about mestari and danielle, was thinking that earlier. I don't even know who maxx is.

Add this to his post where he is happy that everyone is moving on from Maxx to IShall.
We're going to abandon Maxx in favor of Ishall?
I don't mind that at all, I don't believe the claim for starters, if it IS true, I don't see any reason he's pro-town.

http://debate.org...

He probably wouldn't be so blatant about moving on if Maxx is his buddy but then he blames everyone else for moving on and makes it seem like he is only sheeping i,.e. wants town approval before moving on from Maxx.

On the next page, Bull then votes Maxx. "until he becomes less deceptive" after prodding from FT. It is reallt obvious FT is non-mafia at this point - Bull is basically following him around and trying to appease him. Not buddy-buddy interaction.

Maxx makes a post stalling his claim. This is null - he stalls both as scum and town - but the stalling itself is anti-town. TUF votes Maxx to hurry up (I wouldn't entirely rule out TUF/Maxx/Bull team). I'll catch up from page 6 onwards in a bit but Maxx seems like a good lead.

@ FT, why did you believe that Maxx is probably not mafia?

@ TUF, why not address my reasons for FOSsing you (your quick FOS on TV) as opposed to telling me not to bother reading your meta?

VTL Maxx
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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2/8/2013 12:57:28 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
It's awesome how he's posting in the game where he isn't being pressured. Didn't he say he was going to freely claim anyway?
maxx233
Posts: 498
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2/8/2013 1:41:11 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/8/2013 12:57:28 PM, drafterman wrote:
It's awesome how he's posting in the game where he isn't being pressured. Didn't he say he was going to freely claim anyway?

Is this referring to me? If there's sufficient pressure - I'll claim. Idon't auto claim though, sorry. I'm posting in the other game because I forgot the DP had begun in this one. I'm going to be on a plane for the next couple hours though, boarding in just a minute
Buddamoose
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2/8/2013 1:43:09 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/8/2013 1:41:11 PM, maxx233 wrote:
At 2/8/2013 12:57:28 PM, drafterman wrote:
It's awesome how he's posting in the game where he isn't being pressured. Didn't he say he was going to freely claim anyway?

Is this referring to me? If there's sufficient pressure - I'll claim. Idon't auto claim though, sorry. I'm posting in the other game because I forgot the DP had begun in this one. I'm going to be on a plane for the next couple hours though, boarding in just a minute

You had pressure on you last DP, and even said you would claim upon your return. Which you did not, is there any reason you felt that lying was the best course of action?
"Reality is an illusion created due to a lack of alcohol"
-Airmax1227

"You were the moon all this time, and he was always there to make you shine."

"Was he the sun?"

"No honey, he was the darkness"

-Kazekirion
Buddamoose
Posts: 19,450
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2/8/2013 1:44:20 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Unvote VTL Maxx
"Reality is an illusion created due to a lack of alcohol"
-Airmax1227

"You were the moon all this time, and he was always there to make you shine."

"Was he the sun?"

"No honey, he was the darkness"

-Kazekirion
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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2/8/2013 2:00:45 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/8/2013 1:41:11 PM, maxx233 wrote:
At 2/8/2013 12:57:28 PM, drafterman wrote:
It's awesome how he's posting in the game where he isn't being pressured. Didn't he say he was going to freely claim anyway?

Is this referring to me? If there's sufficient pressure - I'll claim. Idon't auto claim though, sorry. I'm posting in the other game because I forgot the DP had begun in this one. I'm going to be on a plane for the next couple hours though, boarding in just a minute

How convenient.

Hello all! I see some votes on me, and saw the reminder that this game is in session. Unfortunately I've been on a plane all day and must now go to bed so I don't get fired from my new fangled job because I overslept at the hotel instead of going to see the client they sent me out here for... BUT, I just wanted to assure everybody that I am indeed in the game and will post as soon as I can (tomorrow evening at the latest). As it stands I haven't even had a chance to read the story, I've only skimmed this latest page of posts. So tomorrow, after I've had sufficient time to think of a good fake claim, I'll get back to you! (I am of course joking - I don't need time to think of a good fake claim! Or perhaps my claims always suck and I really should take more care with them lol) ;) til tomorrow!
Hardcore.Pwnography
Posts: 4,720
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2/8/2013 2:50:05 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/8/2013 7:01:55 AM, Buddamoose wrote:
I was honestly getting bus vibes, from the way Danielle voted for Bull to be honest.

Also, HcP's strong push at Ishall, based on Ishall's claim, has me believing he is prolly TP.

VTL Danielle

*Awaits huge omgus post* i've heard thats what happens to people who FOS Danielle...

I wonder why you single me out. TV was obviously pushing for his lynch as well
Hardcore.Pwnography
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2/8/2013 2:53:28 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/8/2013 7:01:55 AM, Buddamoose wrote:
I was honestly getting bus vibes, from the way Danielle voted for Bull to be honest.

Also, HcP's strong push at Ishall, based on Ishall's claim, has me believing he is prolly TP.

VTL Danielle

*Awaits huge omgus post* i've heard thats what happens to people who FOS Danielle...

Danielle has been very pro town, and she's my strongest town read. I'd much rather pressure you for singling me out to be TP when TV did the same.

VTL Budda
Buddamoose
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2/8/2013 3:00:01 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Pressure me for what HcP? And TV stopped pushing Ishy in favor of Bull, something you continued to persist on until you saw Ishy's lynch wasnt going to happen.

How exactly is Danielle a strong town read?
"Reality is an illusion created due to a lack of alcohol"
-Airmax1227

"You were the moon all this time, and he was always there to make you shine."

"Was he the sun?"

"No honey, he was the darkness"

-Kazekirion
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,771
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2/8/2013 3:11:18 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/8/2013 2:53:28 PM, Hardcore.Pwnography wrote:
Danielle has been very pro town, and she's my strongest town read.

Let's go through the list of things Danielle has done so far:

1. Argue with F-16 about... nothing useful or relevant.
2. Push for an ishall lynch instead of a Bull lynch.
3. Hammer Bull after it is obvious he is getting lynched.

How are these three things even remotely pro-town...
Logic_on_rails
Posts: 2,445
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2/8/2013 3:35:50 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
To the wind we throw...

Mestari - 1/8 - FT
Maxx - 3/8 - Drafterman, F-16, Budda
Budda - 1/8 - HCP
"Tis not in mortals to command success
But we"ll do more, Sempronius, we"ll deserve it
Buddamoose
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2/8/2013 3:38:46 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/8/2013 3:11:18 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
At 2/8/2013 2:53:28 PM, Hardcore.Pwnography wrote:
Danielle has been very pro town, and she's my strongest town read.

Let's go through the list of things Danielle has done so far:

1. Argue with F-16 about... nothing useful or relevant.
2. Push for an ishall lynch instead of a Bull lynch.
3. Hammer Bull after it is obvious he is getting lynched.

These last two are why i'm getting strong bus vibes, that and what she said, about how she didnt find anything Bull did scummy, but she "sucked" so what did she know?

Well if she didnt see anything about Bull that was scummt, which is kind o ludacrous, then why hammer him? Thats not townie at all, but it is definitely scum-motivated given the desire to be given credit for hammering. Saavy?

How are these three things even remotely pro-town...
"Reality is an illusion created due to a lack of alcohol"
-Airmax1227

"You were the moon all this time, and he was always there to make you shine."

"Was he the sun?"

"No honey, he was the darkness"

-Kazekirion
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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2/8/2013 4:00:43 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
@Maxx:

If you're going to be flying all around the world to the extend that you can only make 1-2 posts a day-phase, you should request to be replaced.
Hardcore.Pwnography
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2/8/2013 4:25:02 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/8/2013 3:00:01 PM, Buddamoose wrote:
Pressure me for what HcP? And TV stopped pushing Ishy in favor of Bull, something you continued to persist on until you saw Ishy's lynch wasnt going to happen.

How exactly is Danielle a strong town read?

I switched to Bull like 40 minutes after I voted Ishall. I don't see how this shows that I knew Ishy's lynch wasn't going to happen.

Nothing I can articulate yet, but she's defintely been pro-town and townish. A very strong gut read.
Buddamoose
Posts: 19,450
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2/8/2013 4:30:50 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
No but really HcP, whats the point of pressuring me? I've full-claimed, what do you hope to learn at this point that pressuring would glean?
"Reality is an illusion created due to a lack of alcohol"
-Airmax1227

"You were the moon all this time, and he was always there to make you shine."

"Was he the sun?"

"No honey, he was the darkness"

-Kazekirion